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2017 Michigan Football

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Meyer got to OSU in 2012.  

Recruiting rankings:

2012:  Michigan 6, OSU 5, PSU 47

2013: Michigan 4, OSU 2, PSU 33

2014: Michigan 20, OSU 3, PSU 24

2015: Michigan 37, OSU 7, PSU 14

2016: Michigan 8, OSU 4, PSU 20

2017: Michigan 5, OSU 2, PSU 15

This shows that OSU is a juggernaut under Meyer, But they certainly were not before.  Moreover, it shows that Michigan has had MULTIPLE classes on par with Ohio State and MUCH BETTER than PSU.  It shows that Michigan can recruit with any school in the country when it has the right circumstances:  new coach, enthusiasm, positive press.  But that it starts to falter when those things disappear.  If Harbaugh wins this season, Michigan will be back to recruiting like Michigan.

There are no internal barriers that prevent Michigan from not recruiting like Ohio State.  They have for years.  There is no evidence this is anything more than Ohio State having one of the greatest coaches in the history of college football in charge and Michigan having Rich rod, Brady Hoke, and an 8-5 Jim Harbaugh.  

That's it.

And Michigan has outrecruited Penn State for over a decade.  Even before Sandusky Michigan was getting as much talent as Penn State.  Come on.

You guys are really selling Michigan football short.

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7 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

You know what seems silly right now?  Michigan having a better OL or feature back than Wisconsin.

Michigan had a better oline and feature back than Wisconsin two years ago.  How soon we forget.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

Meyer got to OSU in 2012.  

Recruiting rankings:

2012:  Michigan 6, OSU 5, PSU 47

2013: Michigan 4, OSU 2, PSU 33

2014: Michigan 20, OSU 3, PSU 24

2015: Michigan 37, OSU 7, PSU 14

2016: Michigan 8, OSU 4, PSU 20

2017: Michigan 5, OSU 2, PSU 15

This shows that OSU is a juggernaut under Meyer, But they certainly were not before.  Moreover, it shows that Michigan has had MULTIPLE classes on par with Ohio State and MUCH BETTER than PSU.  It shows that Michigan can recruit with any school in the country when it has the right circumstances:  new coach, enthusiasm, positive press.  But that it starts to falter when those things disappear.  If Harbaugh wins this season, Michigan will be back to recruiting like Michigan.

There are no internal barriers that prevent Michigan from not recruiting like Ohio State.  They have for years.  There is no evidence this is anything more than Ohio State having one of the greatest coaches in the history of college football in charge and Michigan having Rich rod, Brady Hoke, and an 8-5 Jim Harbaugh.  

That's it.

And Michigan has outrecruited Penn State for over a decade.  Even before Sandusky Michigan was getting as much talent as Penn State.  Come on.

You guys are really selling Michigan football short.

One top-five for Michigan in those classes, five top-fives out of six classes for OSU.  This includes two at #2 and one at #3 over those six years.  This is year-seven, and right now Michigan is sitting at #14 and OSU is at #2 for the second time in three seasons--top-five four classes running.

Michigan has never had a run to the tune of seven-straight recruiting classes like that (2,5,2,3,7,4,2)since Scout started keeping a database.

OSU classes from 2008-2011

2011     6th

2010    18th

2009     5th

2008     10th

So really, OSU dipped below top-10 once since 2008.  Before that, 2007 is 72nd and 2006 is 25th.

Urban has effectively stepped on the throats of the all the schools of the region in recruiting, but he did have a decent product to start with . . . and the decline of Michigan's program since the very end of Carr's tenure didn't hurt, either.

It remains to be seen whether or not Harbaugh can peel off a run of recruiting classes like OSU has had over the past decade, although he seems like a big underdog to do it.  The midwest doesn't produce enough talent to sustain OSU and Michigan in the top 10 over a decade, and it is hard to see OSU getting a dud to replace Urban if/when he leaves before that.  An entire generation of kids has come up since Michigan was last seen playing deep into the season for the right to an NC, and OSU has become the Bama of the North over that period of time.  Notre Dame and Michigan can still pull recruits nationally because of their football tradition, academics and intangibles OSU has been playing and recruiting at a different level since these kids were in Kindergarten. 

Ironically, Harbaugh gave kids an alternative to ND and Michigan by building up Stanford to a relatively high level before he left.  Their class this year is far and a way the worst class they've had in a decade.  That class had Andrew Luck in it.

If he can do it in Palo Alto, he can do it in AA--right?  Perhaps, but he's still got a lot of work to do.

 

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7 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

One top-five for Michigan in those classes, five top-fives out of six classes for OSU.  This includes two at #2 and one at #3 over those six years.  This is year-seven, and right now Michigan is sitting at #14 and OSU is at #2 for the second time in three seasons--top-five four classes running.

Michigan has never had a run to the tune of seven-straight recruiting classes like that (2,5,2,3,7,4,2)since Scout started keeping a database.

OSU classes from 2008-2011

2011     6th

2010    18th

2009     5th

2008     10th

So really, OSU dipped below top-10 once since 2008.  Before that, 2007 is 72nd and 2006 is 25th.

Urban has effectively stepped on the throats of the all the schools of the region in recruiting, but he did have a decent product to start with . . . and the decline of Michigan's program since the very end of Carr's tenure didn't hurt, either.

It remains to be seen whether or not Harbaugh can peel off a run of recruiting classes like OSU has had over the past decade, although he seems like a big underdog to do it.  The midwest doesn't produce enough talent to sustain OSU and Michigan in the top 10 over a decade, and it is hard to see OSU getting a dud to replace Urban if/when he leaves before that.  An entire generation of kids has come up since Michigan was last seen playing deep into the season for the right to an NC, and OSU has become the Bama of the North over that period of time.  Notre Dame and Michigan can still pull recruits nationally because of their football tradition, academics and intangibles OSU has been playing and recruiting at a different level since these kids were in Kindergarten. 

Ironically, Harbaugh gave kids an alternative to ND and Michigan by building up Stanford to a relatively high level before he left.  Their class this year is far and a way the worst class they've had in a decade.  That class had Andrew Luck in it.

If he can do it in Palo Alto, he can do it in AA--right?  Perhaps, but he's still got a lot of work to do.

 

there is another fairly mundane factor here and that is the facilities arms race. UM is nearing the end of a generational building cycle on the athletic campus now, having put about as much into facilities as it can - the addition of shiny new stuff is going to slow down over the next few years. Harbaugh is not going to be able to show recruits around as much stuff with new smelling paint as he has been able to and other schools are going to be able to catch up to what degree they choose. It's a small thing, but just one more contributing factor to the overall game.

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1 hour ago, mickeyb105 said:

One top-five for Michigan in those classes, five top-fives out of six classes for OSU.  This includes two at #2 and one at #3 over those six years.  This is year-seven, and right now Michigan is sitting at #14 and OSU is at #2 for the second time in three seasons--top-five four classes running.

Michigan has never had a run to the tune of seven-straight recruiting classes like that (2,5,2,3,7,4,2)since Scout started keeping a database.

OSU classes from 2008-2011

2011     6th

2010    18th

2009     5th

2008     10th

So really, OSU dipped below top-10 once since 2008.  Before that, 2007 is 72nd and 2006 is 25th.

Urban has effectively stepped on the throats of the all the schools of the region in recruiting, but he did have a decent product to start with . . . and the decline of Michigan's program since the very end of Carr's tenure didn't hurt, either.

It remains to be seen whether or not Harbaugh can peel off a run of recruiting classes like OSU has had over the past decade, although he seems like a big underdog to do it.  The midwest doesn't produce enough talent to sustain OSU and Michigan in the top 10 over a decade, and it is hard to see OSU getting a dud to replace Urban if/when he leaves before that.  An entire generation of kids has come up since Michigan was last seen playing deep into the season for the right to an NC, and OSU has become the Bama of the North over that period of time.  Notre Dame and Michigan can still pull recruits nationally because of their football tradition, academics and intangibles OSU has been playing and recruiting at a different level since these kids were in Kindergarten. 

Ironically, Harbaugh gave kids an alternative to ND and Michigan by building up Stanford to a relatively high level before he left.  Their class this year is far and a way the worst class they've had in a decade.  That class had Andrew Luck in it.

If he can do it in Palo Alto, he can do it in AA--right?  Perhaps, but he's still got a lot of work to do.

 

4 top 10 classes when the program was at its nadir shows you the pull michigan has.  michigan recruits better than amyone historically and better than everyone other than 4 or 5 teams recently.

osu is the new alabama under meyer, but they werent always that way.  as your numbers show, before he got therr osu was worse than what michigan is now.

the numbers do not support your contention that michigan cannot recruit with ohio state, rather, it suggests that osu has the second best coach in college football and michigan does not.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

there is another fairly mundane factor here and that is the facilities arms race. UM is nearing the end of a generational building cycle on the athletic campus now, having put about as much into facilities as it can - the addition of shiny new stuff is going to slow down over the next few years. Harbaugh is not going to be able to show recruits around as much stuff with new smelling paint as he has been able to and other schools are going to be able to catch up to what degree they choose. It's a small thing, but just one more contributing factor to the overall game.

michigan's facilities rival most schools and michigan has more money than every other school in the country.  money and facilities are not an issue for michigan.

if facilities were everything, oregon would have the best football and basketball programs in the country.

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51 minutes ago, Buddha said:

michigan's facilities rival most schools and michigan has more money than every other school in the country.  money and facilities are not an issue for michigan.

if facilities were everything, oregon would have the best football and basketball programs in the country.

Texas usually has the richest Athletic Dept in the country, but TAMU actually beat them in 2016 due to over $90M in donations.  Michigan ranked 4th that year and OSU 3rd.

http://www.businessinsider.com/schools-most-revenue-college-sports-2016-10/#4-michigan--1525-million-22

A list updated in 2017 showing just football programs has Michigan 5th behind ND, Bama, Tennessee and Texas in that order. Texas was 1st by a large margin. 

http://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2017/05/richest_college_football_progr.html

 

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Ummm, ok.  Top 5 and just signed the biggest deal in the country with Nike (and more than any other team in the Big 10 including Ohio State).

Again, a lack of resources is not Michigan's problem.  

You guys make it seem like Michigan is an upstart overachieving little engine that could program.  Michigan is the elite of college football, they just don't produce like it.  Michigan arguably does LESS with MORE than any program in the country other than Tennessee and Notre Dame.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

4 top 10 classes when the program was at its nadir shows you the pull michigan has.  michigan recruits better than amyone historically and better than everyone other than 4 or 5 teams recently.

osu is the new alabama under meyer, but they werent always that way.  as your numbers show, before he got therr osu was worse than what michigan is now.

the numbers do not support your contention that michigan cannot recruit with ohio state, rather, it suggests that osu has the second best coach in college football and michigan does not.

Michigan can no longer just show up and impress.  Harbaugh has hired three great recruiters recently and that will help for next year's crucial class. 

Clemson is now an "it" school, UCF just went undefeated, Miami has a real coach again. UF has a real coach again, FSU has a coach from one of the best football areas in the country (Bradenton/Sarasota/Tampa) Jimbo left him some talent but a middling class, UGA is loaded, PSU has a great class coming in, and so on.  Auburn will continue to add on to their success, LSU will be back. TAMU has Jimbo and he has something to prove. 

Top 5 classes will be no duckwalk going forward. 

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michigan picks up a commit from the #17 player in michigan today at a real position of need: db!

/sarcasm

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I’m more concerned with coaching up recruits than high recruiting rankings. Michigan has had difficulty getting good results from highly ranked talent since the end of Lloyd Carr’s tenure. 

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10 hours ago, Euphdude said:

I’m more concerned with coaching up recruits than high recruiting rankings. Michigan has had difficulty getting good results from highly ranked talent since the end of Lloyd Carr’s tenure. 

Part of the problem is that the highly-ranked in-state recruits are usually over-ranked.  Michigan schools do not play the same level of competition they do in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, Ohio and PA.

For example, Shane Morris was a borderline 5* at one point as a prep.  That year while covering prep football in Florida, I saw four or five better quarterbacks in the 16 or so games I was at.  Given, you are going to see some strong QB in the playoffs in FL but some were on bad teams during the regular season.  Take into account that I didn't see one Miami or Jacksonville team play that year, and that offers some insight as to how overrated Morris was as a prep.  Then take the QB from all of the football-strong states in the country, and it is not hard to see why Morris may have very well been like the 25th best QB in the country as a senior instead of a borderline 5*.  Jared Goff was ranked 15th that year, he was a 1st round pick and is the starting QB (3800 yards, 28 TD, 100.5 QB rating) for the 11-5 Rams this year.  Davis Webb went in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft last year, he was ranked 25th.  John O'Korn was the 32nd-ranked QB in the country that year.  Baker Mayfield, 43rd.  

Will Campbell was a 5* for part of his recruitment, and he was a dominant force in the trenches in HS.  He got by on brute strength/size, but his technique was terrible to the point where he was relagated to special teams work (FG/PAT maybe punt team?).  He no longer had a massive size advantage playing in the B1G and opponents made him pay for playing vertically.  Playing better competition/coaching his flaws would have been exploited further in HS, and maybe even corrected at some point.

Another example is Kevin Grady, a 5* tailback from the end of Carr's regime.  Playing for a Michigan powerhouse HS, Grady was ranked 4th and was a certified blue chip player.  But who did he really play in HS?  What defense challenged him?  He was ranked ahead of Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall, Monterio Hardesty and others.  The players ranked ahead of Grady--Johnathan Stewart, Marlon Lucky and Antone Smith had mixed success in the NFL, but they got there after solid-to-great college careers.

Imagine the disappointment from Hoke's staff when Derrick Green and De'Veon Smith came to team camp and Smith was the better-performing and more complete back?  Green was a 5* and the 4th back in the country from a solid fooball area in VA, and Smith was the 16th back in the country from football-rich Eastern Ohio.  It was speculated that Hoke was recruiting to star ranking rather than really doing diligence in scouting.  No offense to Smith, as he was a very useful back during his stay at Michigan--but nobody confused him with Wheatley, Thomas, Perry, Boles, or Hart.

Sure, we can point to Mike Hart as an underrated recruit that played just OK high school competition but I like those guys--playing with a chip on your shoulder is better than playing entitled.  I think Michigan has a guy like that coming in this year in Haskins, although his ceiling may be around De'Veon's.

The offensive line recruits with a 4* ranking or better than haven't panned out at Michigan are perhaps a different case study.  Is it more of a case that they aren't coached up?  Hard to say, but let's look at 2005's OL class.  Slocum from Philly #1OG, Zirbel from Kentucky #9OT, Schifano from Upstate NY #16 OT and Mooseman from Chicagoland's outskirts #9 OG.  Only Mooseman ended up playing significant playing time out of that group, and he was part of that bad OL RR's first year.  Slocum transferred, Zirbel got hurt and Schifano couldn't get onto the field.  Ortmann was one of the lowest-ranked recruits, but he played in perhaps the best football area (Metro Houston) of any of the OL recruits.  Ortmann was no stud, but he did start for two years on those bad OL as a lowly 3* and the 61st OT in the country.  He was long and lanky, 6'6.5 and 265ish in HS.

Fast-forward to 2013-15, and the OL picture is just bad.  Kugler, Bosch, Fox, LTT, Samuelson, JBB, Newsome, Runyan Jr. and Ulizio.  These guys run the gambit in terms of personal circumstances, but their combined success at Michigan has been the floor of their projected success. 

The 2016 and 2017 crops have to evolve between spring and summer for Michigan to be competitive for the B1G title in 2018.  The picture isn't bleak, but it takes a leap of faith to see a capable, cohesive unit--let alone dominant.  Bredeson, Onwenu, Spanellis, Ruiz, Filiaga, and Hudson from those two combined classes offer a nice variety of OL talent.  The clay is there, it just has to be molded by Michigan's Wisconsin-via-Arkansas Offensive Line-making machine--the new OL and S&C coaches.  Maybe Runyan factors in there, and maybe Ulizio or JBB get markedly better in pass pro.  Perhaps a miracle happens and Newsome hits the ground running . . .although that seems unlikely in 2018.  Does Harbaugh get the grad transfer OT he needs?  If he does, it doesn't look like it will be Anderson who is being courted by Texas and Oklahoma among others.

The staff insisted that Bredeson is staying at LG all year, but the team could really use him at LT considering that an interior of Ruiz, Spanellis and Ruiz would help put the best combination of four linemen on the field at the same time.  Also, there has been  some talk that Hudson's move to LT has been a success and that he'll be in the mix next year.  The options at RT are many.  There has been some talk of Filiaga flipping inside to guard but it seems like he would be blocked there for years to come by Onwenu and Ruiz if Spanellis does stay at Center (supposedly he is one of the smartest guys on the team, and he understands all the reads the OC is supposed to make in Harbaugh's complicated offense). There is a lot to be sorted out, but it looks like JH hired the right guys to do it.

 

 

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On 1/21/2018 at 7:52 PM, Buddha said:

michigan picks up a commit from the #17 player in michigan today at a real position of need: db!

/sarcasm

Harbaugh is signing those 6'2 170 lb corners to the nth degree.   Let's hope that secret Stribling sauce he used is in good supply.

Vincent Gray may be the 17th-rated player in Michigan, but the offer sheet is legit and filled with great mix of academic and football schools like Cal, Duke, Army, BC, Virginia, West Virginia and UCLA.  Sorry to be sunny about this signing, but the offer sheet is something I did not expect from a player rated so modestly.  The bad part?  His Nike scores are so-so and he ran a Stribling-like 4.7X during that workout.

https://247sports.com/Player/Vincent-Gray-82652

Don't forget about the grad-transfer corner Michigan just picked up from Utah, Casey Hughes.  He's a 3x Honorable-Mention Academic AA RS JR who claimed a starting job last year.  No INT, a couple FF and he missed the last two games of the year due to injury.  Runs a 4.44, projects to fight for the Nickel job and ST work . . .supposedly safety work too, but man I hope it doesn't come to that.  2* out of North Las Vegas, so two reasons for him to have a chip on his shoulder.

DUGd1zLXUAISX5R.jpg

 

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i've seen enough recruiting to know a late season flier when i see one.  it usually means you have space in the class because you missed on your targets and youre scrambling late to pick someone up.  it also usually means you know that youre not in good shape for the big targets youre waiting for and youre covering your bases.

some of these guys work out, you never know.  programs like msu are full of them.

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46 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i've seen enough recruiting to know a late season flier when i see one.  it usually means you have space in the class because you missed on your targets and youre scrambling late to pick someone up.  it also usually means you know that youre not in good shape for the big targets youre waiting for and youre covering your bases.

some of these guys work out, you never know.  programs like msu are full of them.

Part of me is surprised that Harbaugh is stocking up on so much secondary help, but I know what you mean.  

Could we see someone like Hawkins flipped back to WR?  If so, man, could have used him last year as he's a year older than the rest of his class.  

20 guys in the secondary if everyone signs and stays.  Who transfers from this group?  St. Juste?  Seems like all the 2021 kids will redshirt barring catastrophe.

CB    (8)                                S   (8)                       V  (4)

2018                                  2018                        2018

Watson                            Hughes                   Furbush

2019                                   2019                       2019

Hill                                   Metellus                   Hudson

                                         Glasgow                

2020                                   2020                        2020

St. Juste                             JKP                        Uche

Thomas                            Hawkins      

Long                                  Woods

2021                                    2021                      2021

Sims                                   Green                    Reese

Green                                 Faustin

Gray                                    

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57 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i am hopeful reese remains in the class but i have my doubts.

Reese would be just another 4* at UGA if that's what he wants--which it very well may be.  Hard to fault a kid for staying home.

If Michigan lands one of the three OT targets they are chasing it will be arguably more important.  There are a lot of kids that come along the recruiting trail that you can project as a spur/viper/monster.

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i want to see some big jim harbaugh stanford style tackles in the future.  i think part of their problem last year was that they didnt know who they wanted to be on the oline.  too many different voices.

need to get back to smashmouth manball.  greg frey's hiring was a mistake.

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4 hours ago, Buddha said:

i want to see some big jim harbaugh stanford style tackles in the future.  i think part of their problem last year was that they didnt know who they wanted to be on the oline.  too many different voices.

need to get back to smashmouth manball.  greg frey's hiring was a mistake.

Filiaga  fits that profile, just wondering if he stays at OT.   

Gotta wonder if Frey's hiring was a favor. 

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12 hours ago, Deleterious said:

We didn't even get a chance to complain about him.

 

A Sparty will Sparty, I suppose.

I wonder what kind of weight this carries with OT Patterson, seeing as how he is a big Drevno guy?

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Two thoughts:

--Wilton isn't getting interest from programs he likes.

--Patterson's case may not be the slam dunk the family thinks.

 

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