Tigeraholic1

Jim Caldwell to return next year

101 posts in this topic

The analytical side of that always interested me. Is it worth giving up 5-10 yards in field position for the opportunity for a big play?

Kick and punt returns are almost like a free play, in that it will always be 1st and 10 (unless you fumble).

I'd bet a team is more likely to fumble on a kick return than to score a TD (or even break off a 35+ yard return).

The other negative possibility is a penalty - holding, block in the back, etc. - that puts your LOS inside the 15 or even 10. And that happens all the time.

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19 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Though again, we were 6th from the bottom in amount of returns, so I suspect he downed it more than people realize and the ones that he didn't down left a bit more of an emotional mark

I think you may be looking at the Lions opponent's kick returns.  It seems like Roberts had the 2nd most kick returns in the league this year, Lions 10th overall.

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9 minutes ago, sagnam said:

I think you may be looking at the Lions opponent's kick returns.  It seems like Roberts had the 2nd most kick returns in the league this year, Lions 10th overall.

In that case, your honor I wish to withdraw my complaint.....

 

To be fair though, I used Jason R's link!

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Anyways, I didn't really have a point other than stirring the pot. THat said, PFF naming him all pro implies that on a KR to KR basis, they saw him as one of the 3 most effective KRs in the NFL. If you hate or distrust PFF, then this means nothing, but many use their stats on this site, at least when its convenient to their argument, so I thought it was fun to throw out there. 

I would argue that pretty much none of the available stats suggest he is one of the worst KRs

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I would say that statistically I would probably prefer that a player take a knee every return unless they're explosive. Roberts was not explosive.

I would also say that PFF might be rating him highly because they watched every return and felt there was poor blocking and he did better than expected. That's certainly possible, when I call him one of the worst kick returners in the league I'm judging the kick return unit as a whole. I feel it's fair to say that they were bad. I can't think of any explosive kick returns on the entire season (season long: 42 yards) and they had a lot stuffed in the 12-20 yard line zone after coming out of the end zone.

edit: ESPN has only 10 players with a "qualifying number" of kick returns on the season. Of those 10, Andre Roberts is 8th in average yards. He stinks.

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There's an argument for taking a knee every time for sure

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I will give up 5 yards, 80% of the time for the small possibility of a long return all day.

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27 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

I would say that statistically I would probably prefer that a player take a knee every return unless they're explosive. Roberts was not explosive.

I would also say that PFF might be rating him highly because they watched every return and felt there was poor blocking and he did better than expected. That's certainly possible, when I call him one of the worst kick returners in the league I'm judging the kick return unit as a whole. I feel it's fair to say that they were bad. I can't think of any explosive kick returns on the entire season (season long: 42 yards) and they had a lot stuffed in the 12-20 yard line zone after coming out of the end zone.

edit: ESPN has only 10 players with a "qualifying number" of kick returns on the season. Of those 10, Andre Roberts is 8th in average yards. He stinks.

How many of those returns were taking a knee an option? Not every kickoff fielded goes into the end zone so some of those returns he had to return the kick. 

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11 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

There's an argument for taking a knee every time for sure

Hence the reason to putting the spot where they did.

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3 minutes ago, John_Brian_K said:

I will give up 5 yards, 80% of the time for the small possibility of a long return all day.

I doubt anyone gets a long return 20% of the time.

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32 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

How many of those returns were taking a knee an option? Not every kickoff fielded goes into the end zone so some of those returns he had to return the kick. 

Most of them. I would guess 80%+ of kickoffs go into the end zone these days. Sam Martin had touchbacks on 66.67% of his kickoffs this season. I'm going to assume most of those that were returned also reached the end zone.

Of course there's also a big difference between taking a kick 1 yard deep and 7 yards deep. It felt like Roberts took quite a few from 4-5 yards deep out, but that could have just been confirmation bias.

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In that case, your honor I wish to withdraw my complaint.....

 

To be fair though, I used Jason R's link!

The sort feature at that link is not clear. I had to retype my first post after I realized I was looking at KR coverage. ;-)

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8 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Hence the reason to putting the spot where they did.

Yes

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8 hours ago, Motown Bombers said:

How many of those returns were taking a knee an option? Not every kickoff fielded goes into the end zone so some of those returns he had to return the kick. 

I would be curious on the percentage of kicks he took out of the EZ compared to league average

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In that case, your honor I wish to withdraw my complaint.....

 

To be fair though, I used Jason R's link!

I only noticed because it said the Lions as a team had 21 returns yet Roberts somehow had 32!

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9 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

I would be curious on the percentage of kicks he took out of the EZ compared to league average

It seemed like it wasn't bad most of the year. There was just a 2 or 3 game stretch where he had several bad ones. I doubt he really took too many out overall.

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Reminder of why the Lions remain losers:  A Tale of Three Franchises

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2014/1/13/5306132/lions-coaching-rumors-dan-quinn

2014: Falcons coming off 4-12 and 6-10 seasons hire Dan Quinn.  Lions (7-9) rumored to be interested in Quinn, go with Jim Caldwell.  Falcons on the way to the Super Bowl.

http://www.hngn.com/articles/159872/20151213/detroit-lions-rumors-bears-adam-gase-target-head-coach-jim.htm

2016: Lions (7-9) choose to keep Caldwell.  Dophins, coming off 6-10 season, hire Adam Gase...go 10-6...and are considered a team on the rise after a single season with Gase at the helm.

 

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The Dolphins on the rise?  That's pathetic.  The Falcons are better because they stunk for a couple of years and drafted well when they stunk.  The Lions have been in the playoffs 2 of the past 3 years, so they won't get the same kind of talent; although the Lions are pretty talented right now.  They just need a few pieces to put them over the top.  When healthy, they are a good team.

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The Dolphins put their eggs in the Suh/Taneyhill basket.  They have a nice back in Ajayi, but the have no team speed.  They were lucky to go 10-6 imo.

 

Their wins were against some tough teams this year: Cle, Pitt, Buff, Jets, SD, Rams, 49ers, Ariz, Jets, and Bills.

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So you're telling me they beat a playoff team AND had a better record than the Lions?

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14 hours ago, azzurri said:

Reminder of why the Lions remain losers:  A Tale of Three Franchises

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2014/1/13/5306132/lions-coaching-rumors-dan-quinn

2014: Falcons coming off 4-12 and 6-10 seasons hire Dan Quinn.  Lions (7-9) rumored to be interested in Quinn, go with Jim Caldwell.  Falcons on the way to the Super Bowl.

http://www.hngn.com/articles/159872/20151213/detroit-lions-rumors-bears-adam-gase-target-head-coach-jim.htm

2016: Lions (7-9) choose to keep Caldwell.  Dophins, coming off 6-10 season, hire Adam Gase...go 10-6...and are considered a team on the rise after a single season with Gase at the helm.

 

Okay, there's a bit of a double standard here in your two examples Azzuri... Specifically I'm looking at your "one year" with the Dolphins.  The Lions, in 2014, went 11-5 and just BARELY lost a playoff game in Dallas due (in part) to a questionable non-call.  The Falcons, in 2014, when 6-10.  So you either need to give credit to Caldwell for 2014 and knock Quinn for 6-10 in their first years, or (and this is what I'd recommend) you need to wait a few years before you judge Gase.

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13 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

The Dolphins put their eggs in the Suh/Taneyhill basket.  They have a nice back in Ajayi, but the have no team speed.  They were lucky to go 10-6 imo.

 

Their wins were against some tough teams this year: Cle, Pitt, Buff, Jets, SD, Rams, 49ers, Ariz, Jets, and Bills.

Yah, DVOA suggested they were lucky to make the playoffs. Suh and Tannehill did what they were supposed to do, but the D needs a lot of help

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4 hours ago, RedRamage said:

Okay, there's a bit of a double standard here in your two examples Azzuri... Specifically I'm looking at your "one year" with the Dolphins.  The Lions, in 2014, went 11-5 and just BARELY lost a playoff game in Dallas due (in part) to a questionable non-call.  The Falcons, in 2014, when 6-10.  So you either need to give credit to Caldwell for 2014 and knock Quinn for 6-10 in their first years, or (and this is what I'd recommend) you need to wait a few years before you judge Gase.

Dan Quinn was NOT the Atlanta coach in 2014, the 6-10 season was Mike Smith. Quinn was hired last year and has gone 8-8 and 11-5.

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26 minutes ago, azzurri said:

Dan Quinn was NOT the Atlanta coach in 2014, the 6-10 season was Mike Smith. Quinn was hired last year and has gone 8-8 and 11-5.

You are or course correct. But I think it's worth noting that your post seemed to imply that in January of 2014 the falcons were coming off those two bad seasons and hired Quinn while the lions hired Caldwell.

I get the gist of your post, though. Both Quinn and Gase have had early success and each of them could have been hired by the lions. 

I know you think Caldwell is a bad coach. I doubt the lions would be appreciably better with either of those other two guys in charge, though. 

At any rate, I expect that 2017 is going to be caldwell's last year with the lions. 

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1 hour ago, azzurri said:

Dan Quinn was NOT the Atlanta coach in 2014, the 6-10 season was Mike Smith. Quinn was hired last year and has gone 8-8 and 11-5.

Ah, my mistake.  Still, 8-8 is worse than Caldwell did in is first year.

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