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RedRamage

Race for the NFC North Title

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Like the Vikings, the magic number vs. the Packers is 4.

Yes.

It sure would be something to clinch the division after the next two games. It's not crazy to think about.

The saints game is a coin flip, and the bears game is a likely win.

Minnesota should lose to Dallas. They are on the road against jax next week and will be favored. But it's still a road game.

Houston is pretty good and can beat gb. And then next week GB plays Seattle.

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1 hour ago, T&P_Fan said:

Maybe, but who knows.  You always like to paint a football game with a broad brush.."if the lions don't do this, they will surely lose."  Few weeks back at the vikings the Lions didn't get a first down in the second half til 4 mins to go, and they still won.  Just don't make stupid mistakes, the game can go any way and the Lions can win or lose any way. 

I never said that they will surely lose if the offense doesn't put up a lot of points but the odds favor Brees putting up a lot of points against a leaky Lions defense.  The Vikiings game was completely different, the Lions played against a conservative offense that was simply looking to not screw up and be efficient with a bunch of short passes so the offense had more room for error.  The Saints is the first offense that the Lions have faced since Washington? that stretches the field and looks to win with their offense.  Chances are that the Lions will need to put up a bunch of points if they want to win this game, that's all I'm saying.  The offense is certainly capable.

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

Yes.

It sure would be something to clinch the division after the next two games. It's not crazy to think about.

The saints game is a coin flip, and the bears game is a likely win.

Minnesota should lose to Dallas. They are on the road against jax next week and will be favored. But it's still a road game.

Houston is pretty good and can beat gb. And then next week GB plays Seattle.

I am rooting for GB which would help the Lions get #2 seed

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I am rooting for GB which would help the Lions get #2 seed

I get that. Personally, if each of those other five things happened, I'd be rooting for locking up the division. They could easily lose the next two games on the road, and the pack could easily win their next 2, and all of a sudden we are in week 17 needing a win.

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Huge loss for the Vikings tonight.  The Lions can pretty much eliminate them with a win this weekend (can't see the Lions losing to the Bears or the Vikings winning out).

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Vikings lose to Dallas 17-15, failing a last-minute 2 point conversion. They are 6-6, can top out at 10-6, Lions going 3-2 rest of way would beat that due to tiebreaker. Packers likely a bigger threat.

 

 

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The Vikings loss helped the Lions but the referees screwed them last night.   In favor of the Cowboys.   Why?    Because Jerry Jones makes a big stink any time something gets called against him.   The refs dont want to deal with him, so they don't overturn close calls.      The Lions don't say anything and the league keeps screwing them.   Waiting for this year's horrible missed call against the Lions........you know it's going to happen and it's going to be very costly. 

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8 hours ago, NYLion said:

Huge loss for the Vikings tonight.  The Lions can pretty much eliminate them with a win this weekend (can't see the Lions losing to the Bears or the Vikings winning out).

 

8 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Vikings lose to Dallas 17-15, failing a last-minute 2 point conversion. They are 6-6, can top out at 10-6, Lions going 3-2 rest of way would beat that due to tiebreaker. Packers likely a bigger threat.

I disagree.  The Vikings took the Cowboys down to the wire... Cowboys have to be considered the front runner in the NFC.  That means the Vikings either got really lucky or they aren't a bad team... just not a great team.  But the Vikings don't face any more great teams.  I'd say the Vikings are favorites in every one of their last games and could easily win out the rest of the season.

The Packers, on the other hand, are 5-6 and host Houston (6-5), host Seattle (7-3), travel to Chicago, then host Minnesota, and wrap up in Detroit.  I'd say GB could easily be considered the dogs in 4 of those games... only against Chicago are they clear favorites.  While I think they could definitely win some of those other games, I wouldn't pick them to win right now.

The Vikings are still the bigger threat in my humble opinion.  A win against the Saints on Sunday would help a GREAT deal, but even that doesn't give me confidence because that still requires that we beat the Bears (we should) and the Packers (again we should... but...)

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5 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Against the Vikings. Still 4 to eliminate the Packers. 

It's amazing how "messy" this might get...  If the Lions beat the Packers in the last game, but the Packers manage to win out the rest of the way (doubtful, but possible) then:

Packers are 9-7 with a 4-2 in the division, 7-5 in the conference

Detroit with a win against the Bears and the Packers then:

Lions are 9-7 with a 4-2 in the division 7-5 in the conference

Here's the tiebreakers from ESPN's playoff machine:

Two teams:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

#1 is a tie, #2 is a tie, #3 (7-5 each) tie, #4, tie, #5... it could quite possibly come down to strength of victory! Not sure how that's calculated but given the number of close games Detroit have played, that doesn't sound like it would work in our favor.

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It was a typical Vikings game, their defense is good enough to keep them close, but their putrid offense let them down with its inability to do anything.

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45 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

 

 

I disagree.  The Vikings took the Cowboys down to the wire... Cowboys have to be considered the front runner in the NFC.  That means the Vikings either got really lucky or they aren't a bad team... just not a great team.  But the Vikings don't face any more great teams.  I'd say the Vikings are favorites in every one of their last games and could easily win out the rest of the season.

The Packers, on the other hand, are 5-6 and host Houston (6-5), host Seattle (7-3), travel to Chicago, then host Minnesota, and wrap up in Detroit.  I'd say GB could easily be considered the dogs in 4 of those games... only against Chicago are they clear favorites.  While I think they could definitely win some of those other games, I wouldn't pick them to win right now.

The Vikings are still the bigger threat in my humble opinion.  A win against the Saints on Sunday would help a GREAT deal, but even that doesn't give me confidence because that still requires that we beat the Bears (we should) and the Packers (again we should... but...)

 

8 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

It was a typical Vikings game, their defense is good enough to keep them close, but their putrid offense let them down with its inability to do anything.

Exactly right pyrotigers... even the best defenses give up 14 points per game. If the Vikings offense can't exceed that number with any sort of regularity, they will have trouble beating any of the remaining opponents they have on their schedule, IMO. And they pretty much have to run the table at this point.

Packers are the biggest threat at this point. Presuming the Pack beats Houston this weekend, their game with Seattle will loom large in the division race.

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It's amazing how "messy" this might get...  If the Lions beat the Packers in the last game, but the Packers manage to win out the rest of the way (doubtful, but possible) then:

Packers are 9-7 with a 4-2 in the division, 7-5 in the conference

Detroit with a win against the Bears and the Packers then:

Lions are 9-7 with a 4-2 in the division 7-5 in the conference

Here's the tiebreakers from ESPN's playoff machine:

Two teams:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

#1 is a tie, #2 is a tie, #3 (7-5 each) tie, #4, tie, #5... it could quite possibly come down to strength of victory! Not sure how that's calculated but given the number of close games Detroit have played, that doesn't sound like it would work in our favor.

Strength of victory is like strength of schedule, but only for the teams that you beat.

Not sure how that ends up between those two. Also not sure whether or not Minnesota at 9-7 would help or hurt the lions.

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538 playoff odds have the lions at 71% to win the division. Packers are 16 and Minnesota is 13.

I don't know if it has the tiebreakers baked into it but I think that it does.

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26 minutes ago, number20 said:

The bigger threat isn't the Packers or Vikings. The biggest threat to the Lions is the Lions. It always is

 

This makes no sense. 

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Let's talk about the Lions defense.  After 11 games here is where they rank:

PPG against: 15th

Yards/game against: 15th

Pass yards/game : 14th

Rush Yards/game 15th

I would say, across the board, the Lions have a middle of the pack defense.  They don't do anything really well (late turnovers perhaps) but they are also not flailing their arms helplessly either.  And really, the most important stat is the points you give up, and the Lions have been good for nearly 2 months not giving up huge point totals.  I think the Rams 28 was the last time someone scored more than 20.  The defense also seems to revel in late game heroics, Slay alone has 2 picks and a FF in the last two minutes of games. 

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I've been reading the vikings message board the last few weeks, you would think the responses were more representative of a team that goes 0-16 every year.  Lions and Browns fans know true misery, no one else has quite reached that. 

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