RedRamage

Race for the NFC North Title

480 posts in this topic

Everyone always looking for comparisons to yesteryear.  What happened in 2013 has absolutely zero to do with this year. If the Lions tank this year, it will still have nothing to do with 2013. 

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3 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Oh well, the Packers kind of made a statement in Philly last night........they ain't dead yet.   Someone is winning this division at 9-7 or 8-8.   

That refusal to go for a first down vs. Tennessee could really really haunt this team.   When they punted on Tenn's 39 on 4th and 1 the team deflated and lost that game.    They had that one too.  

Man, I  I forgot that even happened.  Some here have a long memory for misery.   7-4 can't even be enjoyed by many Lions fans.

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27 minutes ago, T&P_Fan said:

Everyone always looking for comparisons to yesteryear.  What happened in 2013 has absolutely zero to do with this year. If the Lions tank this year, it will still have nothing to do with 2013. 

Correct.

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1 hour ago, T&P_Fan said:

Honestly, I don't see Minnesota getting 3 more wins, they really aren't a good football team.  We want the Vikings to lose to the Cowboys (obviously) and then beat the Packers when they meet a few weeks.  Packers still have to play Seattle as well. 

But really, I don't care about any of that right now. Just go take care of your own business.  The Lions are a 7-4 football team and now have a chance to prove they are a good squad.  3-2 from here on out pretty much guarantees the division (packers would have to run the table, meaning the last game of the season would be for the division).  Lions have put themselves in really nice position, now go finish it and host a damn playoff game.

While I agree they aren't a great team, they don't face too any other great teams except Dallas.  I think they are better than Jacksonville, Chicago, Indy, and probably GB at this point as well.  Those are games I would expect them to win.

And frankly, I don't think the Lions are a great team right now either.  While luck has played a factor, I'm not saying at all that they've "lucked" into their wins... they have earned them, but just barely.  They're an average team that has done what they needed to more times than not to sneak out with a win.

That why I'm saying: On paper... The Vikings should go 4-1, with the Lions probably going 2-3.  If you put a gun to my head and forced me to beat on the remaining schedules straight win/loss, that's how I'd beat.

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1 hour ago, T&P_Fan said:

Man, I  I forgot that even happened.  Some here have a long memory for misery.   7-4 can't even be enjoyed by many Lions fans.

Can you really blame any Lions fan for feeling a little unsettled?  Leaving aside for a moment whether it's valid or not, Lions fans have been trained over the years.  While you're correct that previous years largely have no effect on the current year in terms of what the players on the field do, the effects on the fans certainly do carry over from year to year.  Again, leave aside the logic of it, can you not see that if a fan is disappointed by his team year after year after year he'll come to expect some level of disappointment?  That's a normal psychological reaction.  It isn't logical, but it is normal.

There is zero logic that says a ringing bell accompanied by food in the past means any ringing bell in the future means food, and yet Pavlov's dogs will expected it.  Now of course humans aren't dogs.  Logically we can analyse and say there isn't a (strong) dependency, but emotionally... we're just going to feel worried.

Now... above and beyond the learned behavior, is there much of a reason to expect the Lions to win against their upcoming opponents?  Well, every game as literally come down to the last possession.  Every game as been a nail biter, even against "bad" teams the Lions have not gone out and played really, really well.  That doesn't inspire confidence in a fan base.  That doesn't make me feel like: "Hey, these guys have the talent and the planning and the execution to go out and beat mediocre and bad teams like they should."

I'd feel better if we hadn't laid and egg in Chicago.  I'd feel better if we'd blown out Jacksonville after we had a whole extra week to prepare for that game.  But we didn't... so yeah.. I can't "enjoy" 7-4 in the sense that I can't feel comfortable that we'll win the division.

I can certainly enjoy that we ARE 7-4... I've very happy with that.  Thrilled really... pleased as punch that we swept the Vikings.  But I'm not sitting back expecting to coast to the NFC North Title right now.

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Lions will be favored in at least two more games. Big favorites against the bears and at least a couple points against the packers. They will probably be sunderdogs to saints and Giants, like 3-4 points. Dallas they are probably a 7-8 point dog.

Vikings are probably 4 point dogs to Dallas and will be 3 point dogs to Green Bay. They will be 6-7 points over bears, and 3-4 points over Indy and jags.

4-1 and 2-3 is unlikely to happen in my opinion.

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39 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Lions will be favored in at least two more games. Big favorites against the bears and at least a couple points against the packers. They will probably be sunderdogs to saints and Giants, like 3-4 points. Dallas they are probably a 7-8 point dog.

Vikings are probably 4 point dogs to Dallas and will be 3 point dogs to Green Bay. They will be 6-7 points over bears, and 3-4 points over Indy and jags.

4-1 and 2-3 is unlikely to happen in my opinion.

I think something that could hurt the Vikes too is that they are facing an opponent in Dallas that will be motivated Thursday. If Dallas were to lose and the G-Men beat Pittsburgh this weekend, the Giants will find themselves one game back of the Cowboys and with a win already in-hand. The Cowboys could put the NFC East in play with a loss

Whereas, if Dallas wins and keeps rolling, they could be testing starters by the time Detroit rolls around on the schedule.

Thursday is a huge game for the Vikings/Lions/Packers playoff chances. If the Vikes lose that game, they will likely have to run the table IMO

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I'm a little unsettled but not because of Lions history but because I simply don't think they are a true talent level 11 win team.  I think they are more around 9 to 10 wins tops so I'm worried that we will eventually play to our talent and end up there.   I think they will be safe at 10 wins but if they end up at 9 they very likely will find themselves out.  Of course the narrative will be that it was the same old Lions choking it away but I think it would just be them reverting back to their talent level. 

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12 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm a little unsettled but not because of Lions history but because I simply don't think they are a true talent level 11 win team.  I think they are more around 9 to 10 wins tops so I'm worried that we will eventually play to our talent and end up there.   I think they will be safe at 10 wins but if they end up at 9 they very likely will find themselves out.  Of course the narrative will be that it was the same old Lions choking it away but I think it would just be them reverting back to their talent level. 

Preseason rankings before the year started had us as about the 23rd best team in the NFL.  If we end up with 9 wins I have to say that is a darn good job TBH.

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

I'm a little unsettled but not because of Lions history but because I simply don't think they are a true talent level 11 win team.  I think they are more around 9 to 10 wins tops so I'm worried that we will eventually play to our talent and end up there.   I think they will be safe at 10 wins but if they end up at 9 they very likely will find themselves out.  Of course the narrative will be that it was the same old Lions choking it away but I think it would just be them reverting back to their talent level. 

I'd agree with this and I'd argue that they aren't even a 9 or 10 win team based on talent level.  However, that's not how it works in the NFL.  The talent level between most teams is so razor thin that the difference in most games comes down to the right bounces or plain luck so in the Lions case, you have a team that has had 11 games that could have gone either way and they win 7 of them but it could have just as easily been 3 or 4, very fine line between the 4-7 and 7-4 teams in this league.

In any event, if they don't win the division, I wouldn't consider it a choke based on their schedule.  Does anybody really expect them to beat New Orleans, NYG or Dallas on the road?  If anything, winning one of those games would be a bonus.  If they lose to Chicago at home, now that's a choke.  The positive about their position is that they could go 2-3 and still win the division especially if one of those wins was against the Packers.

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If the Lions beat the Packers in week 17 and both finish 9-7 what is the tie breaker?  I always forget.

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If the Lions beat the Packers in week 17 and both finish 9-7 what is the tie breaker?  I always forget.

First is head to head among tied teams, so would depend on if Minnesota is also 9-7 and the result of the packers Vikings game.

If it is just the lions and packers, head to head would be a wash, and division record would next, followed by conference record. If pack beat Minnesota, they would be 5-1 and we would be 4-2 in division.

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Right now I'm just worried about the Saints.  Win the next one.  

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2 hours ago, djhutch said:

Right now I'm just worried about the Saints.  Win the next one.  

Beating the Saints would make me feel a lot better because I think we'll need a road win in order to take the division.  If we can beat the Saints and if the Vikings lose to Dallas, then as long as we take care of business at home we should be fine.

And no, I'm not really worried that the Vikings might win against Dallas, but "any given Sunday...."  It would really, really suck if the Vikings pull off the upset because the rest of their schedule is relatively easy.

If we win and they lose Sunday, then they need to run the table AND we have to lose 3 of the remaining 4 games for them to jump us.

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I either expect them to win the whole thing or miss the playoffs with a loss in the last game of the year to the Packers. 

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The Lions defense has been playing much better. Sure, we've been playing some pretty horrible offensive teams but that never mattered in the past. One win out of three on the road and two home wins. That's what it will take to win the division for sure and host a playoff game. We'll beat New Orleans and maybe the Giants, both on the road. And maybe Dallas will be resting starters for our Monday Night matchup? Not likely but possible. 11 wins may even get us a bye. Again, not likely, but possible.

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36 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

The Lions defense has been playing much better. Sure, we've been playing some pretty horrible offensive teams but that never mattered in the past. One win out of three on the road and two home wins. That's what it will take to win the division for sure and host a playoff game. We'll beat New Orleans and maybe the Giants, both on the road. And maybe Dallas will be resting starters for our Monday Night matchup? Not likely but possible. 11 wins may even get us a bye. Again, not likely, but possible.

Precisely.  They will likely get exposed against all these juggernaut offenses coming up.  The offense will need to start scoring outside of the end of halves/games if the Lions have any hope of beating any of these teams on the road.

Also, I don't see Dallas resting their starters the 2nd to last week of the season.  There's something to be said for riding momentum going into the playoffs and I can't remember the last time a team rested their starters so early.

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1 hour ago, RedRamage said:

And no, I'm not really worried that the Vikings might win against Dallas, but "any given Sunday...."  

Luckily the game's on a Thursday so we don't have to worry about Any Given Sunday. Whew that was a close one

 

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25 minutes ago, NYLion said:

Also, I don't see Dallas resting their starters the 2nd to last week of the season.  There's something to be said for riding momentum going into the playoffs and I can't remember the last time a team rested their starters so early.

It might be more like not using their starters the entire game.  Treat it more like game 3 of the pre-season... get the starters their reps, then start phasing them out in the second half.

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19 minutes ago, number20 said:

Luckily the game's on a Thursday so we don't have to worry about Any Given Sunday. Whew that was a close one

 

Yes, we dodged a bullet there.

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If Minnesota beats Dallas, then I will get worried about the New Orleans game. Otherwise, while a win would be very beneficial, we could still go out and beat the Giants bears and packers to get to 10 wins, which would be enough to win the division.

And I still think 9-7, with wins over the bears and packers at home, has a good chance of being enough. Just need the Seahawks to beat GB and GB and Dallas to beat Minnesota.

If Minnesota beats Dallas, that changes things.

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2 hours ago, NYLion said:

Precisely.  They will likely get exposed against all these juggernaut offenses coming up.  The offense will need to start scoring outside of the end of halves/games if the Lions have any hope of beating any of these teams on the road.

Maybe, but who knows.  You always like to paint a football game with a broad brush.."if the lions don't do this, they will surely lose."  Few weeks back at the vikings the Lions didn't get a first down in the second half til 4 mins to go, and they still won.  Just don't make stupid mistakes, the game can go any way and the Lions can win or lose any way. 

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