RedRamage

Race for the NFC North Title

480 posts in this topic

Okay, so the Lions have the Tie Breaker over the Vikings, but the Vikings also have a far easier schedule to close out the year.

Lions remaining:

@Saints - loss?

Bears - win

@Giants - loss

@Cowboys - loss

Packers - win

And here's the Vikings:

Dallas - loss

@ Jaguars - win

Colts - win

@ Packers - win?

Bears - win

I think it's entirely possible that the Vikings end up 10-6 while we finish 9-7... which would really suck.

Obviously "any given Sunday..." and all that, but right now it seems like the Lions need to pick up an unlikely win or the Vikings need to regress some more.

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Well, we might lose to say, the Giants, but we also beat two similar teams in Philly and Washington. Difficult to say. 

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Any given sunday.  The vikings were embarassed by the bears, they could easily lose to jacksonville or the colts.

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If Bortles is healthy, the Jags have more talent than the Vikings.  The Colts have been tough this year.  They'll have Luck back.  I think our schedules are pretty even.  The Lions have won 6 of their last 7, while the Vikings have lost 5 of their last 6.

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If they take the division it's looking right now like either Bucs or Redskins at Ford Field. Vikings are a maybe but I don't think any wild cards come out of the NFCN this year. 1st round win probably = Seattle road game

 

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The fact that they beat Minnesota twice is just so freaking big.    It certainly looks like they can win the division and host a home game, but we've been here before, haven't we?   It's the Lions, you can't ever count it until there's a little x next to their name in the standings.   

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On 11/24/2016 at 7:58 PM, Nastradamus said:

Well, we might lose to say, the Giants, but we also beat two similar teams in Philly and Washington. Difficult to say. 

I don't think the Giants are all that good,  same for the Saints.  I can see them splitting those games, losing in Dallas and splitting Green Bay and Chicago, that makes them 9-7.   Minnesota going 3-2 and that puts them both at 9-7, the Lions win.    And yes, they should be the Bears and Packers at home, but I expect them to lose one they should win and win one on the road they should lose.  

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8 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I don't think the Giants are all that good,  same for the Saints.  I can see them splitting those games, losing in Dallas and splitting Green Bay and Chicago, that makes them 9-7.   Minnesota going 3-2 and that puts them both at 9-7, the Lions win.    And yes, they should be the Bears and Packers at home, but I expect them to lose one they should win and win one on the road they should lose.  

My fear though is that they'll go 4-1.  On paper I don't see 2 losses for the Vikings.  My hope is the Packers beat them, but I'm not confident that'll happen and the Vikings should win at Jacksonville and when they host the Bears.  The Colts might have a shot, but I'd feel better if that was in Indy instead of in Minny.

I'll feel a good deal better if the Lions win this Sunday and the Vikings lose.

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My fear though is that they'll go 4-1.  On paper I don't see 2 losses for the Vikings.  My hope is the Packers beat them, but I'm not confident that'll happen and the Vikings should win at Jacksonville and when they host the Bears.  The Colts might have a shot, but I'd feel better if that was in Indy instead of in Minny.

I'll feel a good deal better if the Lions win this Sunday and the Vikings lose.

Odds are Detroit goes 10-6 and Minnesota goes 9-7. Going game by game is a fun exercise but it's not a very good way to predict a final record.

That said, it's certainly within a reasonable probability that Detroit ends up 9-7 and Minnesota ends up 10-6.

Then again, rather than predict doom and gloom, you could also see a reasonable scenario where Seattle goes 10-5-1 and Detroit goes 11-5 and gets a bye.

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Seems like as soon as I put my guard down and decide to not give a **** what happens they start to do better.  That trend is not ending now.  So I fully expect them to win the Super Bowl this year.  I am almost thinking about putting money on it.

I took one for the team.

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

Odds are Detroit goes 10-6 and Minnesota goes 9-7. Going game by game is a fun exercise but it's not a very good way to predict a final record.

That said, it's certainly within a reasonable probability that Detroit ends up 9-7 and Minnesota ends up 10-6.

Then again, rather than predict doom and gloom, you could also see a reasonable scenario where Seattle goes 10-5-1 and Detroit goes 11-5 and gets a bye.

I remember Lion-hater Mike Valenti assuming the Lions would go 11-5 in 2013.  They were 7-5 and the rest of the division was floundering - just like this year.   Aaron Rodgers was hurt.    Terry Foster was tapping the breaks - because he's a lifer like most of us and he knew.   I felt the same way Terry did.    Then the Lions got crushed in the snow in Philly,  lost on a 61 yard field goal to Baltimore,  lost in overtime to the Giants (Schwartz arguing with fans while the game was still going) and lost by a point to a bad Minnesota team.    Sorry to be negative but I have watched this team since the 70s.     Just beat the Saints.   The rest doesn't matter. 

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1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I remember Lion-hater Mike Valenti assuming the Lions would go 11-5 in 2013.  They were 7-5 and the rest of the division was floundering - just like this year.   Aaron Rodgers was hurt.    Terry Foster was tapping the breaks - because he's a lifer like most of us and he knew.   I felt the same way Terry did.    Then the Lions got crushed in the snow in Philly,  lost on a 61 yard field goal to Baltimore,  lost in overtime to the Giants (Schwartz arguing with fans while the game was still going) and lost by a point to a bad Minnesota team.    Sorry to be negative but I have watched this team since the 70s.     Just beat the Saints.   The rest doesn't matter. 

That was one of the more painful runs. Don't forget Calvin dropping away the game at TB. 

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I pack away all the bad memories from the Lions only to be revealed when highly inebriated or highly stressed.

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2 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

I remember Lion-hater Mike Valenti assuming the Lions would go 11-5 in 2013.  They were 7-5 and the rest of the division was floundering - just like this year.   Aaron Rodgers was hurt.    Terry Foster was tapping the breaks - because he's a lifer like most of us and he knew.   I felt the same way Terry did.    Then the Lions got crushed in the snow in Philly,  lost on a 61 yard field goal to Baltimore,  lost in overtime to the Giants (Schwartz arguing with fans while the game was still going) and lost by a point to a bad Minnesota team.    Sorry to be negative but I have watched this team since the 70s.     Just beat the Saints.   The rest doesn't matter. 

I made mention of this a couple of weeks back.  The similarities are strikingly similar.  Mediocre division, Lions team that wasn't as good as the record indicated but still controlled their own destiny.  They started off so well in that Philly game then the wheels came off and they never recovered.

Different year, different team but with that schedule coming up and the Vikings having a fairly manageable schedule, it's likely going to tighten up the next couple of weeks.  I think one road win could wrap it up but I'm having a hard time figuring out which road game they can win.  The Saints are just a really bad matchup for the Lions, Brees is going to destroy the Lions defense.  This is a game where Cooter needs to open up the playbook, they won't be able to dink and dunk and win this game, they need to put up lots of points.  Oddly enough, the Dallas game might be the easiest of the road games simply because they might have everything wrapped up by then.

I'd really like to see a Packers loss tonight.  A loss tonight probably sinks their season but on the other hand, a Packers team playing spoiler in the last game could be a really dangerous group.  If the Lions could beat the Saints this weekend, they are big time in the drivers seat.  I'm fully expected a loss so a win in that game would be a beautiful bonus.  Damn these guys for making me invested again.

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17 hours ago, NYLion said:

I made mention of this a couple of weeks back.  The similarities are strikingly similar.  Mediocre division, Lions team that wasn't as good as the record indicated but still controlled their own destiny.  They started off so well in that Philly game then the wheels came off and they never recovered.

Different year, different team but with that schedule coming up and the Vikings having a fairly manageable schedule, it's likely going to tighten up the next couple of weeks.  I think one road win could wrap it up but I'm having a hard time figuring out which road game they can win.  The Saints are just a really bad matchup for the Lions, Brees is going to destroy the Lions defense.  This is a game where Cooter needs to open up the playbook, they won't be able to dink and dunk and win this game, they need to put up lots of points.  Oddly enough, the Dallas game might be the easiest of the road games simply because they might have everything wrapped up by then.

I'd really like to see a Packers loss tonight.  A loss tonight probably sinks their season but on the other hand, a Packers team playing spoiler in the last game could be a really dangerous group.  If the Lions could beat the Saints this weekend, they are big time in the drivers seat.  I'm fully expected a loss so a win in that game would be a beautiful bonus.  Damn these guys for making me invested again.

Oh well, the Packers kind of made a statement in Philly last night........they ain't dead yet.   Someone is winning this division at 9-7 or 8-8.   

That refusal to go for a first down vs. Tennessee could really really haunt this team.   When they punted on Tenn's 39 on 4th and 1 the team deflated and lost that game.    They had that one too.  

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This is a weird year for this team to play the what if game.  I could see them as an 0-11 or an 11-0 team...or anywhere in between.  The games have been that close.

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On balance I would suggest being 7-4 is better than could be reasonably expected given the game situations they were in, so I am not too hung up on not beating Indy.

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51 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Oh well, the Packers kind of made a statement in Philly last night........they ain't dead yet.   Someone is winning this division at 9-7 or 8-8.   

That refusal to go for a first down vs. Tennessee could really really haunt this team.   When they punted on Tenn's 39 on 4th and 1 the team deflated and lost that game.    They had that one too.  

Meh, the Lions have won a lot of games that they "shouldn't" have won so I don't think we can be picky about a game that the Lions "should" have won.  All their games could have gone either way outside of the game at Green Bay which wasn't really as close as the score indicated, same with the Bears game as well.

I really wish the Packers had lost that game last night.  Now they have their confidence back and this is clearly the best team in the division if they get into a rhythm.  They still have an uphill climb though.

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We probably need to beat GB to win the division. Fair enough.

Yeah, I think most of the scenarios people have been considering for projecting a division finish include beating Green Bay in week 17.

I guess there are some dream scenarios where the lions enter week 17 a game up on the Vikings and hoping that it is enough to have clinched by then.

Ignoring the 0-4 and 4-0 scenarios, the most likely combination of records for the lions and Vikings are probably 2-2 for both the lions and Vikings. But the next most likely scenarios are probably 2-2 lions and 3-1 Vikings or 1-3 lions and 2-2 vikings. So when you add up all the various scenarios and their likelihoods, I think the most likely overall situation is that lions and Vikings are tied heading into the final week.

Thus, Green Bay putting themselves in the mix doesn't really change all that much. If we are tied with them heading into that game, we have to win anyway to stay ahead of Vikings. Even if GB goes 4-0 we only have to go 2-2 and beating them would clinch it.

Anyway, I think we would have to win that final game in most instances anyway.

If we go 2-2, and then beat Green Bay in week 17, what scenario would keep us from winning the division? Nothing Green Bay can do would put them ahead of us. Minnesota would need to go 5-0. I think that's it.

So, basically, if Dallas beats Minnesota on Thursday night this week, we simply need to beat the bears and one out of Dallas, NO, and NYG to set up a clinching game in week 17.

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On 11/28/2016 at 8:45 AM, RedRamage said:

My fear though is that they'll go 4-1.  On paper I don't see 2 losses for the Vikings.  My hope is the Packers beat them, but I'm not confident that'll happen and the Vikings should win at Jacksonville and when they host the Bears.  The Colts might have a shot, but I'd feel better if that was in Indy instead of in Minny.

I'll feel a good deal better if the Lions win this Sunday and the Vikings lose.

Honestly, I don't see Minnesota getting 3 more wins, they really aren't a good football team.  We want the Vikings to lose to the Cowboys (obviously) and then beat the Packers when they meet a few weeks.  Packers still have to play Seattle as well. 

But really, I don't care about any of that right now. Just go take care of your own business.  The Lions are a 7-4 football team and now have a chance to prove they are a good squad.  3-2 from here on out pretty much guarantees the division (packers would have to run the table, meaning the last game of the season would be for the division).  Lions have put themselves in really nice position, now go finish it and host a damn playoff game.

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