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2016-17 Michigan Basketball GDT

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Michigan 4-0 with the 2K championship in hand, and with wins over Marquette and SMU, some will be boldly predicting that this team might be better than we thought.  

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Definitely seems like Michigan could lay claim to being the fourth best team in the big ten behind Wisconsin Indiana and Purdue. So far so good.

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I'm enjoying living in this bizarre alternate universe where commentators spend the entire game gushing over Michigan's size and aggressive defense

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Yes, I tuned into the 2K classic without knowing much of anything this year, but boy have the big bodies been a revelation this year.  DJ Wilson especially, holy cow.  Not sure how this team will morph and grow, but Beilein appears to have one of those pesky teams that lacks superstars but will beat a looooooot of other teams.

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35 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I would feel comfortable taking OSU -10.

Probably two touchdowns without Speight.  

Not buying it, they don't have an answer for DJ Wilson going up and getting contested balls, and Barrett's running style is going to get him in foul trouble with the charges he'll pick up

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Zak Irvin is the best player on the court, and then he pretty much single handedly loses the game with 3 god awful hero ball shots down the stretch. Michigan basketball

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John Beilein era peaked with Burke/Staukas/et al.

The program has become mediocre and a non-entity since.  Time for Michigan to bite the bullet and admit it has to recruit 5* talent to compete again.

Oh, and playing defense might help too.

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10 hours ago, Buddha said:

John Beilein era peaked with Burke/Staukas/et al.

The program has become mediocre and a non-entity since.  Time for Michigan to bite the bullet and admit it has to recruit 5* talent to compete again.

Oh, and playing defense might help too.

Yep, I think Beilein goes down as an all time great for what he did turning the program around, but it's time for him to go. At this point it's only the fact that he's a great offensive coach that is keeping this team from being one of the absolute worst in the country. They have maybe 1 player on the roster with above average athleticism (Wilson), they have no one who can get to the rim on a regular basis, the "star" veterans in Irvin and Walton Jr are mediocre complimentary pieces on a good team, they have zero ability to play defense. It's sad to watch.

It happens to everyone at some point, but I think after 40+ years in coaching the game has just passed him by. He can't recruit at a high enough level to make up for his poor defensive coaching. Really, his program requires one "big dog" type player (I suppose every school does) and they've went in his tenure from Manny Harris - Darius Morris - Trey Burke - Nik Stauskas and as disappointing as Harris and Morris were at times, those are all at least fringe NBA players, to Irvin and Walton who will be lucky to have a career in Europe. Key athletic position of SF you've got Irvin, who sucks, Chatman, who sucked, and Ibi Watson who can't get on the floor on a team who sucks. 3 huge misses in a row.

Get a young coach who can recruit, you've got Wilson and Wagner coming back, you get rid of Irvin and Walton, you've got that transfer from Kentucky eligible. Shouldn't take very long at all to make this team a contender again.

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This team's problem is that Walton and Irvin didn't turn out to be good players. Guys like Duncan Robinson are nice, but you need other guys that demand the attention of the defense and the two seniors just don't do that.

These things are so fluid though. Maybe Simpson becomes good next year and some of the new guys step up.

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I got really excited for a minute that he was going to start getting bigger recruits. Its clear now that he can't. Too many misses in a row. UM needs to decide if this is all they want for their program or not.

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I got really excited for a minute that he was going to start getting bigger recruits. Its clear now that he can't. Too many misses in a row. UM needs to decide if this is all they want for their program or not.

It's definitely a fair question to ask. There is obviously a grass in greener thing going on now.

But I also think it's fair to cut him a little slack for the number of guys that left early that they probably expected to be around at least another year. It's one of those good problems to have in a way, because they were so good, but it also leaves the team a bit short.

And I also think it's fair to give him a break when guys that are supposed to be good turn out not to be good. Guys like Walton and Irvin should have become better. You could blame the coach, but the same coach was able to coach up guys before. Is player success more up to the player or the coach? I think it's mostly up to the player.

He's brought in enough guys that overachieved in the past that I think he does have a good eye for talent, but it's never a sure thing. I think we are stuck in a bit of situation where we ended up with multiple misses and not enough hits. That can change quickly, though.

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

It's definitely a fair question to ask. There is obviously a grass in greener thing going on now.

But I also think it's fair to cut him a little slack for the number of guys that left early that they probably expected to be around at least another year. It's one of those good problems to have in a way, because they were so good, but it also leaves the team a bit short.

And I also think it's fair to give him a break when guys that are supposed to be good turn out not to be good. Guys like Walton and Irvin should have become better. You could blame the coach, but the same coach was able to coach up guys before. Is player success more up to the player or the coach? I think it's mostly up to the player.

He's brought in enough guys that overachieved in the past that I think he does have a good eye for talent, but it's never a sure thing. I think we are stuck in a bit of situation where we ended up with multiple misses and not enough hits. That can change quickly, though.

I don't think its guys leaving early as much as missing on guys who you put all your recruiting time and energy into. 

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59 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It's definitely a fair question to ask. There is obviously a grass in greener thing going on now.

But I also think it's fair to cut him a little slack for the number of guys that left early that they probably expected to be around at least another year. It's one of those good problems to have in a way, because they were so good, but it also leaves the team a bit short.

And I also think it's fair to give him a break when guys that are supposed to be good turn out not to be good. Guys like Walton and Irvin should have become better. You could blame the coach, but the same coach was able to coach up guys before. Is player success more up to the player or the coach? I think it's mostly up to the player.

He's brought in enough guys that overachieved in the past that I think he does have a good eye for talent, but it's never a sure thing. I think we are stuck in a bit of situation where we ended up with multiple misses and not enough hits. That can change quickly, though.

I think he has a good eye for talent, but it's extremely worrying to me that after a national championship game appearance, they really can't get a single recruit who is above mid range 4* talent level and mostly they're filling up the roster with 3* types. There have been a bunch of 4*+ players from Michigan who ended up at Iowa State, Butler, and so on. It seems like every year Michigan is "in the mix" for top recruits, misses them all, and then ends up taking nobodies to fill out the class.

All you have to do is look over to EL and even this mediocre MSU team has multiple impact freshmen who are basically better than any player on Michigan's team immediately. Meanwhile Michigan has Simpson, who looks decent defensively but seems too small and slow to ever be a real offensive threat, Watson who barely plays and has looked awful when he has, Teske who barely plays and has looked awful when he has, and Davis being redshirted.

They were rated: #13 PG, #17 C, #23 C, #43 SF, and little if any impact. And it actually gets worse in the future.

Coming in next year you have the #21 SG, #38 PG, and #30 PF. Not terrible, but none of those guys are going to come around and immediately add a star player to the roster either. If they pull Mo Bamba that would be an impact player, picking Michigan over other top schools, but that's not a recruiting battle Michigan has won since McGary.

2018 they currently have the #32 PG and they seem to have little interest from any highly ranked players.

I just don't see it. I mean, I remember how bad Tommy Amaker was despite getting higher ranked recruits. The players didn't improve, they always looked disinterested, and the team couldn't even make the tourney. Beilein has improved things dramatically, but he has failed to take the next step and keep bringing in elite talent. No matter how good of a coach he is, it's hard to compete if you're just taking fliers on guys you like and hoping they explode like Burke, Stauskas, and Levert. Eventually your luck runs out and you're stuck with Irvin and Rahkman and company.

And I mean, the team has basically lost no contributors from last year, and they're somehow even worse than last year's historically bad defense. That's unbelievable.

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54 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I don't think its guys leaving early as much as missing on guys who you put all your recruiting time and energy into. 

This.

He's missed on top recruits while failing to unearth any more trey burkes.  Mcgary was really the only star recruit he's ever had.

In fairness to beilein, i think he's hamstrung a bit by michigan's fear of another fab five scandal and desire to be duke (what people think duke is: clean, good kids, no cheating,not what it actually is: the same as any other big program except with more white kids).

They've reached the end of the road with beilein, imo.  Time to get younger and aggressive again.

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2 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

I think he has a good eye for talent, but it's extremely worrying to me that after a national championship game appearance, they really can't get a single recruit who is above mid range 4* talent level and mostly they're filling up the roster with 3* types. There have been a bunch of 4*+ players from Michigan who ended up at Iowa State, Butler, and so on. It seems like every year Michigan is "in the mix" for top recruits, misses them all, and then ends up taking nobodies to fill out the class.

All you have to do is look over to EL and even this mediocre MSU team has multiple impact freshmen who are basically better than any player on Michigan's team immediately. Meanwhile Michigan has Simpson, who looks decent defensively but seems too small and slow to ever be a real offensive threat, Watson who barely plays and has looked awful when he has, Teske who barely plays and has looked awful when he has, and Davis being redshirted.

They were rated: #13 PG, #17 C, #23 C, #43 SF, and little if any impact. And it actually gets worse in the future.

Coming in next year you have the #21 SG, #38 PG, and #30 PF. Not terrible, but none of those guys are going to come around and immediately add a star player to the roster either. If they pull Mo Bamba that would be an impact player, picking Michigan over other top schools, but that's not a recruiting battle Michigan has won since McGary.

2018 they currently have the #32 PG and they seem to have little interest from any highly ranked players.

I just don't see it. I mean, I remember how bad Tommy Amaker was despite getting higher ranked recruits. The players didn't improve, they always looked disinterested, and the team couldn't even make the tourney. Beilein has improved things dramatically, but he has failed to take the next step and keep bringing in elite talent. No matter how good of a coach he is, it's hard to compete if you're just taking fliers on guys you like and hoping they explode like Burke, Stauskas, and Levert. Eventually your luck runs out and you're stuck with Irvin and Rahkman and company.

You have to pay good money to get those recruits and michigan doesnt pay that much anymore.

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

You have to pay good money to get those recruits and michigan doesnt pay that much anymore.

You have to pay good money to get the 5* top talent sure, but you don't to get the guys going to Butler, Wisconsin, Marquette. All schools that recruit better than Michigan. Who the **** wanted to go to Wisconsin and play for Bo freaking Ryan and his miserable deathball. But he did it.

I don't expect Michigan to recruit like Kentucky or Duke or UCLA, but I'd prefer if they looked a little less like Minnesota and Penn State.

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4 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

You have to pay good money to get the 5* top talent sure, but you don't to get the guys going to Butler, Wisconsin, Marquette. All schools that recruit better than Michigan. Who the **** wanted to go to Wisconsin and play for Bo freaking Ryan and his miserable deathball. But he did it.

I don't expect Michigan to recruit like Kentucky or Duke or UCLA, but I'd prefer if they looked a little less like Minnesota and Penn State.

Yup, there's an in between and we are failing. 

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8 minutes ago, Buddha said:

This.

He's missed on top recruits while failing to unearth any more trey burkes.  Mcgary was really the only star recruit he's ever had.

In fairness to beilein, i think he's hamstrung a bit by michigan's fear of another fab five scandal and desire to be duke (what people think duke is: clean, good kids, no cheating,not what it actually is: the same as any other big program except with more white kids).

They've reached the end of the road with beilein, imo.  Time to get younger and aggressive again.

Well put, and I do think part of this comes from administration

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39 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Well put, and I do think part of this comes from administration

It would not be an irrational decision for a school to look at the current state of a particular sport and decide they are willing to stay out of the deep end of the pool as long as they can remain competitive and sell enough seats not to go broke until things inevitably evolve to something else. I'm not sure that is express policy a M, but yeah - that thinking probably does at least reduce pressure on Beilein.

And to be fair, one and done hits Beilein probably as hard as any coach in the country. He has always preferred to play a complex precision game. One year athletes effectively ends those ambitions. As a coach JB is a fish out of water in the current NCAA hoops world.

The balance between recruiting and coaching is always in flux, but at the top 20 level today it's now 95% or more recruiting - coaching has become the tail of the dog.

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On 1/12/2017 at 1:59 PM, Gehringer_2 said:

It would not be an irrational decision for a school to look at the current state of a particular sport and decide they are willing to stay out of the deep end of the pool as long as they can remain competitive and sell enough seats not to go broke until things inevitably evolve to something else. I'm not sure that is express policy a M, but yeah - that thinking probably does at least reduce pressure on Beilein.

And to be fair, one and done hits Beilein probably as hard as any coach in the country. He has always preferred to play a complex precision game. One year athletes effectively ends those ambitions. As a coach JB is a fish out of water in the current NCAA hoops world.

The balance between recruiting and coaching is always in flux, but at the top 20 level today it's now 95% or more recruiting - coaching has become the tail of the dog.

As much as I love Beilein as a coach, I think this sums up my thoughts.  The one-&-dones aren't coming here, & it's virtually impossible to win consistently if they don't.  Occasionally you'll have a Burke, or a class with the likes of Robinson/Hardaway that can put it together, but there will be higher peaks & deeper valleys in between.

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I think it's ok to go through these low periods. It makes the good periods that much better.

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