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#3 Michigan vs. #2 Ohio State

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6 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

His injury doesn't carry much weight with me (other than respecting him for playing hurt) because he was bad in the Iowa game pre-injury. It's not like he got hurt the week before the Iowa game and tried to power through it.

But he was injured at the end of the Iowa game, where he delivered catchable balls to his senior receivers.  Who knows when he got hurt that game, originally, but the line was Swiss cheese most of the game and he took some very hard shots.

If Peters were to somehow beat out Speight and start at QB next year-- and if Speight doesn't have a good bowl game and declare for the draft--Peters would face long odds having a better season than Speight just had.  

If he is even Dreisbach-good as a RS FR it would be a big deal, especially given there is no Hayes and Toomer that we can foresee next season.

 

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26 minutes ago, pyrotigers said:

I think we're just struggling to find the middle ground here. Speight wasn't O'Korn/Sheridan/Threet/Morris level "garbage QB" but he also wasn't 2nd half of last year Rudock/Devin Gardner's 1 good year/Uninjured Chad Henne good either.

He was a solid game manager who imploded in the OSU game. It's entirely possible that only happened due to being injured, which is a shame, but it did happen. His injury doesn't carry much weight with me (other than respecting him for playing hurt) because he was bad in the Iowa game pre-injury. It's not like he got hurt the week before the Iowa game and tried to power through it.

I agree with this. The only 2 cents that I would add is that he was a RS-Soph this year, and I personally think he has 2nd half Rudock in him for a full season. I'm not going to sit here and argue that tho lol, I'm not sure I could objectively argue it well enough to bother. But let's see what he does in the bowl game, that was probably Rudock's best.

 

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18 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

But he was injured at the end of the Iowa game, where he delivered catchable balls to his senior receivers.  Who knows when he got hurt that game, originally, but the line was Swiss cheese most of the game and he took some very hard shots.

If Peters were to somehow beat out Speight and start at QB next year-- and if Speight doesn't have a good bowl game and declare for the draft--Peters would face long odds having a better season than Speight just had.  

If he is even Dreisbach-good as a RS FR it would be a big deal, especially given there is no Hayes and Toomer that we can foresee next season.

 

Harbaugh's gonna have an open competition. If Peters beats out Speight he's gonna be a ****-ton better than Dreisbach. I feel pretty confident about that.

If they end up 1A/1B, I would speculate that Speight will be the starter and Peters will get some PT similar to O'Korn. Even if Speight clearly wins the competition, Peters will see developmental PT.

Only good things can come from the QB spot next year. QB and TE are maybe the lest worrisome positions on the roster.

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But he was injured at the end of the Iowa game, where he delivered catchable balls to his senior receivers.  Who knows when he got hurt that game, originally, but the line was Swiss cheese most of the game and he took some very hard shots.

If Peters were to somehow beat out Speight and start at QB next year-- and if Speight doesn't have a good bowl game and declare for the draft--Peters would face long odds having a better season than Speight just had.  

If he is even Dreisbach-good as a RS FR it would be a big deal, especially given there is no Hayes and Toomer that we can foresee next season.

 

No doubt that his receivers let him down a bit in the Iowa game on difficult catches that they didn't make. You expect them to catch at least a few more than they ultimately did. They typically caught their expected share over the course of the season, though.

The problem in the Iowa game was a lot more than his receivers not catching more difficult passes. He also had 7 inaccurate throws according to the mgoblog charting. These are throws that were too inaccurate to be caught. His downfield success rate in that game was 60%. That's bad, and is independent of whether the receivers made the catch or not.

Yes, it's true that if the receivers catch a couple more passes Michigan doesn't lose that game. But if speight hadn't been bad it wouldn't have come down to those catches being made.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that speight is solely to blame in either of the two losses. But he wasn't good in those games either.

I also think your criticisms of the WR overall are overblown. As I said above, the Iowa game was bad, but over the course of the season heading into the osu game, the big three dropped 6 routine catches (out of 90) and dropped 12 difficult catches (out of 30). That's some pretty good performance.

I will be interested to see the breakdown of the osu game for both speight and the receivers.

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I will also say in Speight's defense, that if Michigan had a Jim Harbaugh o-line/running game, he would be a perfectly good QB. As long as they don't have that though, the team needs either an improved Speight or someone else to perform better next year if they're going to compete.

I do think Speight will be the starter, and he'll likely have improved. If he hasn't I bet he gets pushed hard by Peters.

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3 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

But he was injured at the end of the Iowa game, where he delivered catchable balls to his senior receivers.  Who knows when he got hurt that game, originally, but the line was Swiss cheese most of the game and he took some very hard shots.

If Peters were to somehow beat out Speight and start at QB next year-- and if Speight doesn't have a good bowl game and declare for the draft--Peters would face long odds having a better season than Speight just had.  

If he is even Dreisbach-good as a RS FR it would be a big deal, especially given there is no Hayes and Toomer that we can foresee next season.

 

I don't understand why you hammer the WRs who missed a ball each but refuse to criticize SPeight at all for missing open guys like 3 times downfield in that game. Is it just a weather thing? The injury? 

I guess over all, I'm just not sure what your point is here? How good do you think Speight is? Do you think we are unlikely to do better? Do you think better QB play doesn't make a difference? 

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Not that it really means anything since they are both NFL draft talking heads(even though McShay does cover CFB) but fwiw Kiper and McShay both said that if Washington loses they would take Michigan as the 4th team citing the wins over Colorado, Wisconsin and the Penn St blowout.   I don't know if it would happen but I could possibly see it depending on how close the games are.  If Oklahoma just squeaks by Oklahoma St. and Penn St. just eeks past Wisconsin I think it would be tough to take either over Michigan even if they were conference champions. 

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18 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not that it really means anything since they are both NFL draft talking heads(even though McShay does cover CFB) but fwiw Kiper and McShay both said that if Washington loses they would take Michigan as the 4th team citing the wins over Colorado, Wisconsin and the Penn St blowout.   I don't know if it would happen but I could possibly see it depending on how close the games are.  If Oklahoma just squeaks by Oklahoma St. and Penn St. just eeks past Wisconsin I think it would be tough to take either over Michigan even if they were conference champions. 

The committee needs to pray that Clemson and Washington wins. There's no way they can find a clear #4 team from Colorado/UM/B1G/B12 winner otherwise. The criteria says to weigh conference champs. It also says to weigh H2H and common opponents. Of course those 2 criteria lead to different teams.

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2 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

I don't understand why you hammer the WRs who missed a ball each but refuse to criticize SPeight at all for missing open guys like 3 times downfield in that game. Is it just a weather thing? The injury? 

I guess over all, I'm just not sure what your point is here? How good do you think Speight is? Do you think we are unlikely to do better? Do you think better QB play doesn't make a difference? 

Speight has received plenty of criticism, why should I pile on when there are many here who are okay putting a huge bulk of both losses on  his shoulders?

Why should I not take everything into consideration when assessing performance?  Did anyone put any blame at all on the WR before I said something?  Has anyone mentioned that, by the way, the OSU defense is possibly the 2nd best defense in the country next to Michigan's?  Barrett is widely celebrated off this board, but Speight held his own against the much more seasoned player.

I've been pretty vocal about how good I think Speight is, just in case this question isn't posed in rhetoric.    I think he is a first-day draft talent with a prototypical PP QB frame with prototypical pocket presence.  At the NFL level, playing healthy, he probably has a league-average arm but he throws an above-average ball--this means he throws a very clean spiral and thrown with very good touch a great deal of the time, making it more catchable.  He needs to work on his accuracy, and IMO, his conditioning, and he'll be an average NFL starter inside of four years.

I think Michigan is unlikely to do better next year, as Peters is still a teenager who hasn't taken a game snap at the D1 level.  Peters should be a good QB for Harbaugh, and maybe if Speight ends up declaring for the draft he'll have the inside track for the job.  But Michigan has had highly-rated quarterbacks come in, play early, and not do so well.  Mallett, Gardner and Morris--most recently--were all disappointments both early on, and in the case of the latter two, later.  Does this mean I don't believe in recruiting highly-rated quarterbacks?  Hardly, it just means that I know there isn't a Manning or Luck--or even a Henne--waiting to happen with every big-time frosh that puts on a winged helmet.  Speight is another coach's project--which became his project-- that Harbaugh hit paydirt with.  Harbaugh abandoned his recruited project--Gentry--essentially in favor of Speight.  There have been a lot of resources poured into making Speight into a QB that came four points from leading the team to an undefeated record, and I have major doubts that Harbaugh pulls the plug unless Peters is indeed a Manning or Luck type of special.  Translation:  the kid will have to be better than even Harbaugh was himself at Michigan to win that job.

I think QB play matters, but how many NC quarterbacks go on to be great--or even good--professionals?  Great scheming on both sides of the ball along with talent and execution in the trenches wins football games in college.  You don't think Speight can be as good as Chris Weinke or Gino Toretta next year?  I sure do.  Do I think these former Heisman/NC QBs were great pros?  Nope.  Do I think they were really good game managers that played behind some very talented teams?  Yes, I do.  I think Speight can be Joe Flacco minus the bionic arm strength at the NFL level.  Perhaps something in the neighborhood of Byron Leftwich.  That's where I think he falls, right now, at this point in his progression three years out of high school.

 

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Given that the committee said the difference between Washington and Michigan was "very, very small" I'd think Michigan gets in with an upset, but they might find it tough to have two big ten teams in and neither of them the conference champ, so I think we'd also need Wisconsin/PSU to be a crappy game where neither team looks good. Let's say Wisconsin comes out and rolls them 45-7 or something, it would be easy to say 'they're the champ and they only lost to Michigan by 7 on the road...'

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It's difficult to get a good read on what they might do. So much depends on how they view the difference between Michigan and Wisconsin and penn state. If the view now is a top five, then a gap, then the next bunch of teams, then Michigan probably gets in. But if they view that gap as small, then adding a top 10 win to either of those teams could bump them ahead. The conference champion bonus is sort of considered a tiebreaker, but so is head to head.

The repeated focus on "four best teams" helps Michigan.

Michigan has the best set of wins, a good loss, and an acceptable loss.

Wisconsin would have one good win, and two good losses.

Penn state would have two good wins, a good loss to Michigan but a blowout one, and an acceptable loss.

Given that penn state is below Wisconsin, I would assume that pen state winning would be best for Michigan, especially considering Michigan demolished them. Plus their win over osu was pretty flukey.

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Yeah I think it is in Michigan's best interests that Penn St. wins.   I think it would be easier to put UM over them considering we destroyed them than a conference champ Wisconsin team that we barely beat at home.   

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Has anyone else seen the UM-OSU ref compilation video on Facebook?  It is pretty revealing when viewed as a rolling tape.

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