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The Presidency of Donald J. Trump

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3 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

To be fair to the President, when he was a candidate, he was adept enough to identify and speak to the anxiety that voters (especially in the Midwest) had on trade and NAFTA.... things that a lot of politicians and policy makers didn't really address (or address adequately) at the time or in the aftermath of NAFTA.

The problem is that the primal scream of populism doesn't always lend itself to good solutions. Hence where we are today.

Actually, where we are today is actually a congress that is too busy with a faux impeachment to take up the USMCA, so all the same anxiety still exists. Trump will jam that down the D's throats at every midwest stop on the campaign, basically saying "I negotiated a better deal, they won't even take it up". 

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1 hour ago, ewsieg said:

My point is the status quo has done nothing but put us behind the eight ball.  Trump, right or wrong on anything else, has put out some valid complaints that have always been there about China, but never pushed by any political administration or business leader...

You're starting off with BS though.

There's never been a status quo with China, and it is categorically incorrect to say that politicians do nothing with regards to China. Trump's complaints are not new, they HAVE been pushed before by administrations, and they are NOT unknown.

Everyone knows China is unethical. The Bush administration pushed China for 8 years to quit manipulating their currency, including naming them as a currency manipulator. China BTW, stopped manipulating their currency around 2011 IIRC.

Obama hammered China for 8 years over IP protections which resulted in a major agreement on IP Rule of Law. 

This is just off the top of my head, without digging up the exact details.

But... China is unethical. They are STILL skirting IP and trying to steal their way to the top. The pressure on them has to be unending and consistent and by EVERY Administration, no matter Trump's, Bush's, Obama's... they ALL hammered at China, and future administrations whether Dem or Republican will also have to continuously push China...

China wants to rise up to be #1 and push the US aside, and they're willing to steal, lie, manipulate, etc. in order to achieve their goals. Everyone knows this. And every administration will be required to continuously hammer at China to be more responsible/ quit trying to steal their way to the top.

Trump is NOT saying anything new.

However, and I said this a couple years ago when he started pressing on China (Jan. '18 when he started some China specific tariffs) that if he hammered out a tough/ great/ deal with China that changed the way they act, institutionally, I would give him credit. 

But he blew it right from the beginning by running away from TPP... which enforced American Rules of Law (several different aspects: labor wages, IP, environment, etc...) in ALL of the surrounding SE Asian countries (forcing Chinese knockoffs of American IP or stolen IP to be kicked out of their markets, etc.) which would have placed excellent pressure on China. A better starting point in negotiating with China than letting them off the hook. And TPP would have been a great starting point to institute the same level of IP protections and law in an EU agreement, effectively shutting out Chinese knockoff and stolen IP. A year later he begged to get back into the TPP after he realized what an idiotic move he made, but was rebuffed by the remaining nations. What did they do with the TPP? They went forward with it... after eliminating all the stringent American Rule of Law provisions we had spent 8 years negotiating for...

And then Trump decided a tariff war was the way to negotiate with China. The ultimate stupidity.

I'll say it again: If Trump hammers out a major deal with China, I would give major credit, for at least this one thing.

But I don't think he's smart enough to get a good deal. And nothing he's after in the deal is unknown or hasn't been pressed against China before. That's a fallacy. As for right now...? He's under pressure.

China has him right where they want him to hammer a quick deal that is extremely favorable to them, because Trump will be desperate. And they know it.

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

There was nothing in Trump's personal history or education that would or should have suggested that he would be competent, let alone expert, in international trade deals.

There is nothing in his history that suggests he would be competent in anything complicated.  He simply isn't smart and has not said one thing of substance in 45 years.   But we are supposed sit around and analyze like he some kind of brilliant strategist.  Anything he accomplishes in the trade talks will come from bullying on some shallow issues.  

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38 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

Actually, where we are today is actually a congress that is too busy with a faux impeachment to take up the USMCA, so all the same anxiety still exists. Trump will jam that down the D's throats at every midwest stop on the campaign, basically saying "I negotiated a better deal, they won't even take it up". 

lies

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37 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

You're starting off with BS though.

BS?   You say I'm starting off with BS and then you go on to agree with everything i'm saying.  I never said these were Trump's ideas, I was just pointing out that Trump is doing more then just mounting political pressure on them.  He is directly hurting their economy (albeit ours too).  That is a costly tactic that is completely different than what has been done before.  As you point out, China has agreed to stuff, then did it their way anyway.  

I do agree with you on TPP.  It definitely would have put more pressure on China and would had made sense in pursuing.  That said, TPP was another status quo direction, which if everything worked out the way we hoped, would have been years in the making to get some changes out of China.  

Again, i'm not saying Trump has a plan here and if he does, that it's good.  I am saying that I do think you can make a valid case that tariff's are a radical way that could possibly lead to a favorable outcome.  Our economy is in a position of strength to handle the impact, China has much more to lose, at least in the short run.

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1 minute ago, stanpapi said:

The standard pfife-no substance response. 

Exactly.  Correct and pithy.   Not my fault you're a damn liar telling lies.  And also racist.

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53 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Our economy is in a position of strength to handle the impact, China has much more to lose, at least in the short run.

I don't know if I buy this, tbh. 

To the extent that they have more to lose, the question is whether it matters to an autocratic regime that has been in power for longer than most Americans have been alive.

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5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't know if I buy this, tbh. 

Me either. The US is in no position to pick up the manufacturing slack China would abandon.

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1 hour ago, pfife said:

Exactly.  Correct and pithy.   Not my fault you're a damn liar telling lies.  And also racist.

Well, it's Monday and the leftist is ticked off again about something or another. That's a shame.

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2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

To be fair to the President, when he was a candidate, he was adept enough to identify and speak to the anxiety that voters (especially in the Midwest) had on trade and NAFTA.... things that a lot of politicians and policy makers didn't really address (or address adequately) at the time or in the aftermath of NAFTA.

The problem is that the primal scream of populism doesn't always lend itself to good solutions. Hence where we are today.

The scariest thing about where we are today is that we are still moving along the path to a yet-to-be-uncovered planned destination.

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27 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

Well, it's Monday and the leftist is ticked off again about something or another. That's a shame.

Are you talking about Edman again?

  • Haha 1

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2 hours ago, ewsieg said:

BS?   You say I'm starting off with BS and then you go on to agree with everything i'm saying.  I never said these were Trump's ideas, I was just pointing out that Trump is doing more then just mounting political pressure on them.  He is directly hurting their economy (albeit ours too).  That is a costly tactic that is completely different than what has been done before.  As you point out, China has agreed to stuff, then did it their way anyway.  

 

Just like North Korea.  Nobody takes Trump seriously.  I think leaders have figured out that they can agree to stuff and praise Trump and pretend to give him a win and then they can do what they want.  Trump just wants to be praised and to claim victory.  He doesn't care what happens after that.  

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7 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Just like North Korea.  Nobody takes Trump seriously.  I think leaders have figured out that they can agree to stuff and praise Trump and pretend to give him a win and then they can do what they want.  Trump just wants to be praised and to claim victory.  He doesn't care what happens after that.  

This is what the international community has learned over the past couple of years.  Trump's threat to Turkey is the same kind of empty threat he's been tweeting since his presidency began.  He's not to be taken seriously.

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This all coming from the people who were convinced he was going to start nuclear war. 

My how times have changed.

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I'm really glad I'm not (t)rolling up in here with "at least he didn't start nuclear war" perpetrating as an argument.

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4 minutes ago, pfife said:

I'm really glad I'm not (t)rolling up in here with "at least he didn't start nuclear war" perpetrating as an argument.

So you think this is Trump's final position on the matter? 

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Just now, stanpapi said:

So you think this is Trump's final position on the matter? 

I don't "discuss" with racists.  And I totally don't give a **** about Trump's final position.

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5 minutes ago, pfife said:

I don't "discuss" with racists.  And I totally don't give a **** about Trump's final position.

You're the one who commented about one of my posts. When I responded with a simple question...you turtled.

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3 hours ago, ewsieg said:

... Again, i'm not saying Trump has a plan here and if he does, that it's good.  I am saying that I do think you can make a valid case that tariff's are a radical way that could possibly lead to a favorable outcome.  Our economy is in a position of strength to handle the impact, China has much more to lose, at least in the short run.

Yeah... I'm not so certain about that...

Getting into a tariff war is like cutting off your arm to put yourself into a better bargaining position. Even if you believe you have a strong enough economy to "weather the storm" so to speak... you are still bringing on a storm of bad. That doesn't improve your bargaining position. And lo and behold, China reacted exactly as expected: they retaliated. And smartly as well... by attacking agricultural imports, they directly attacked Trump's middle America MAGA support. Rural farming areas. They've taken a massive hit, and tossing out handout money to make up for their lost sales, doesn't even come close to making up for it. They kept their mouths shut for a short while and said they still supported Trump... but farmer's support is dropping off rapidly and sharply. I don't have the numbers to put behind it; that's just what polls/ interviews/ purple states turning blue seems to (pretty strongly) indicate.

That's not putting him into a better bargaining position. And that's after he cut off his left arm by ditching the TPP. So... now he's cut off both arms and is demanding China give him the deal he wants because he cut off both his arms? 

Yeah, I don't think so. The Chinese aren't stupid either... they've seen his support erode specifically because of the trade war, and they have no reservations waiting out this administration until there's a new one in 2021 to start up again. They could even press Trump admin for a nothing deal because they know how desperate he is at the moment.

And I haven't even mentioned the impeachment inquiry yet because that's just icing on the cake; and Trump being even more under duress where China is going to end up getting the better deal. I could say he cut his head off with his Ukraine move but he's got nothing upstairs anyway so that doesn't really make a difference anyways... 

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PS: On the BS part that was really in reference to stating it was nothing but status quo and no o ne had done anything before which is just not true.

I may have missed your emphasis on Trump's "novel" approach... ?

My bad.

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55 minutes ago, stanpapi said:

You're the one who commented about one of my posts. When I responded with a simple question...you turtled.

false and you're also racist

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