Election Day 2016...what do you "think" will be the results?

[belcherboy 22]

Election day is tomorrow. What is your prediction of the end results?  Not what you want to happen, but what does your gut tell you will be the end result?  Feel feel to elaborate on your choice. Your choice will be anonymous in the poll.

[Deleterious 2,488]

We lose.

[RedRamage 137]

I think Clinton will win in a landslide of electoral votes, though I suspect the popular vote will be closer.

What could be really interesting though is the congress vote.  I wonder if there are conservatives out there who won't vote Trump (either will go 3rd party or no entry for pres) but will for congress republicans.  Also I wonder if some moderate/independents will vote Clinton, not because they like her, but simply because they really dislike Trump, but then will "balance" that vote by going for conservative in the other elections.

[screwball 506]

46 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

We lose.

No ****!

[Shelton 1,592]

I think Clinton will win in a landslide of electoral votes, though I suspect the popular vote will be closer.

What could be really interesting though is the congress vote.  I wonder if there are conservatives out there who won't vote Trump (either will go 3rd party or no entry for pres) but will for congress republicans.  Also I wonder if some moderate/independents will vote Clinton, not because they like her, but simply because they really dislike Trump, but then will "balance" that vote by going for conservative in the other elections.

I don't think the data supports a Clinton electoral landslide but a close popular vote. Everything I have seen lately is that clinton's popular vote edge isn't making its way into the electoral vote, and that a Clinton popular vote win and trump electoral vote win could happen.

So I think any scenario where she gets an electoral landslide will result in a popular vote that isn't very close.

[RedRamage 137]

You're probably right Shelton.  My response was really just off the top of my head so I have zero research/logic behind it... just a feeling that'll probably be wrong.

[ballmich 397]

Where the heck is EC tie with the presidency going to McMullin?  

[Euphdude 1,122]

The result of this election is we are weaker as a nation thanks to idealistic entrenchment resulting from social media and a level of bias reinforcement never before seen in American politics.  I have never been as concerned for the future of our nation as I am today, largely due to the number of people who embrace Trump's personality, tactics, and policies without regard to his past deeds or future ramifications.

Regardless of who wins the presidency, the tone of our political climate is going to get worse before it gets better.

[Melody 776]

1 hour ago, ballmich said:

Where the heck is EC tie with the presidency going to McMullin?  

That would be my personal preference.   But I have a sinking feeling that those shady Clintons are headed back to the White House.  

[Melody 776]

3 hours ago, RedRamage said:

I think Clinton will win in a landslide of electoral votes, though I suspect the popular vote will be closer.

What could be really interesting though is the congress vote.  I wonder if there are conservatives out there who won't vote Trump (either will go 3rd party or no entry for pres) but will for congress republicans.  Also I wonder if some moderate/independents will vote Clinton, not because they like her, but simply because they really dislike Trump, but then will "balance" that vote by going for conservative in the other elections.

I will be voting Johnson then mostly GOP tomorrow.  

[tiger337 3,871]

3 hours ago, Euphdude said:

The result of this election is we are weaker as a nation thanks to idealistic entrenchment resulting from social media and a level of bias reinforcement never before seen in American politics.  I have never been as concerned for the future of our nation as I am today, largely due to the number of people who embrace Trump's personality, tactics, and policies without regard to his past deeds or future ramifications.

Regardless of who wins the presidency, the tone of our political climate is going to get worse before it gets better.

Correct.  Nothing good will come out of this election.  The best case scenario is status quo.    

[clark1mt 67]

If we start with this map (from RealClearPolitics moments ago),and assume Clinton takes Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada (all reasonably likely based on polls and early voting reports), that makes 252.  Win any one of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and that puts her over the top.
 

Even starting with that map, Trump would have to have an exceptionally good day tomorrow to win.

[chasfh 1,854]

Trump would have needed an exceptionally good few weeks, given the early voting in most states.

[TheCouga 146]

8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

We lose.

Despite how much I generally support Democrats, I'm still really uncomfortable with Clinton.  I know it's not fair to attribute her record totally with Bill's, but the "centrist" compromises Bill made with the Republicans in the 1990s really ended up savaging the working class in this country.

But I now have no choice.  I hope part of Hillary's platform is to correct her husband's mistakes.

[Edman85 625]

 

Changing up my map from the other day...

[mtutiger 2,740]

[ROMAD1 3,352]

These are just funny

 

[ROMAD1 3,352]

Its funny to refresh 538 every few minutes and see the odds incrementally changing in HRC's favor.   Like less than a 1% every hour or so...but for some reason the updates have been moving it like that in her favor.  

[TheCouga 146]

Tons of new polling being dumped today.  I might want to adjust my map later.

[Deleterious 2,488]

I don't know enough to do a map.  But a comfortable win for Hillary.

Had Trump run his entire campaign like he did the past 2-3 weeks, he would have easily won IMO.

[Mr. Bigglesworth 3,886]

Trump isn't capable of running his campaign that long without opening his mouth and putting his foot into it.

[Gehringer_2 3,386]

It's all over. Trump won the little town in NH that votes first.

[ROMAD1 3,352]

2 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

It's all over. Trump won the little town in NH that votes first.

you have that backwards.

[Mr. Bigglesworth 3,886]

The other observation I would make is there was a pattern in the polling this election cycle where Hillary would get a bump from an event (i.e. convention, debate, ...) and Donald would narrow the gap over the next 2-3 weeks until the next event -> Hillary would get a bump.

Each bump put Hillary's polling better than it was the previous bump, and after the polling difference narrowed in the 2-3 weeks after a bump, the gap between her and Donald was wider than it had been the cycle before.

This most recent narrowing of the polls the last 2-3 weeks puts Donald further behind than he was in any narrowing of the polls observed in the past.

I think that suggests overall voters have, over time, gradually been turned off to Donald more than Hillary.  I also wonder if the closing of the gaps were  primarily a function of correction / normalization from an unrealistically high support point of Hillary.

[Gehringer_2 3,386]

Just now, ROMAD1 said:

you have that backwards.

I guess this was not Dixville, they were just reporting in on NPR. Dame liberal media probably got it wrong.