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Sydney_Fife

2016 Offseason

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I also think they will trade Sanchez but probably later after the market is bid up really high for the likes of Hill, Nova etc. Thats when Sanchez will look "cheap" for 5 to 8 million and everybody likes to buy stuff on sale. Doubt anybody wants Pelfrey at any price  let alone give up a player for him.

As for Kinsler I think he is the heart and energy of this team so I hope he stays  but if moving him and JD can solidify our SS,2B and CF with real talent under team control to mesh with Fulmer, Norris and Boyd then maybe you have to do it.

Also I think Avilia will just defer on Maybins option, unfortunately,  while picking up Krod's.

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16 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

No, it's not a couple of dumb tweets.  I don't worry about dumb tweets.  I see smart people saying he should be traded every year, people that I agree with on most baseball topics.  I still don't agree on Kinsler though.  

That's because when we traded for him, he was a borderline average defender and had a severely declining bat.  In fact Texas was considering moving him to 1B IIRC.  He was a monster offensively and defensively in 2011, and then fell off a cliff defensively in 2012 and stayed there in 2013.  And his bat suddenly became very mediocre at the same time.  The player we thought we got in that trade was a much worse player than Kinsler turned out to be.  When he popped in 2014 and 2015, it was out of line with what we saw in 2012-13, and due to his age looked to be an outlier each year.  It's really only 2016, to me, that has solidified that 2014-16 was not the outlier, but it was probably more 2012-13 as the outlier. Regardless, I think when you see something that looks like an outlier on a veteran player who is reaching the end of his productive span, you have to think about trading the player. 

But we didn't trade him, and that turned out to be the best move so far.  That doesn't mean it's the best move going forward though. Also, I think that teams are more apt to hang on to verteran players too long and receive limited value back for them (if any), than to trade them too early.  No one should be in a rush to dump him, but I think the team would be wise to be shopping him to see if they can get a trade return that makes sense. 

 

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49 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

He's also 34, and should be traded now if they can get a great return.  Especially with the direction they are going in; he's a valuable trade piece.

The direction they are going in is leaner, faster, younger and cheaper--moving Kinsler only addressed one of them.  Age is relative--if you ever get the chance to see Kinsler play, I think you'd agree that he does not appear to be aging and likely has at least two seasons left where his age shouldn't factor.  His salary is incredibly low for a guy who gives you offensive production comparable to a corner outfielder.  No reason to trade him, especially when he addresses many of our shortcomings.

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2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

The direction they are going in is leaner, faster, younger and cheaper--moving Kinsler only addressed one of them.  Age is relative--if you ever get the chance to see Kinsler play, I think you'd agree that he does not appear to be aging and likely has at least two seasons left where his age shouldn't factor.  His salary is incredibly low for a guy who gives you offensive production comparable to a corner outfielder.  No reason to trade him, especially when he addresses many of our shortcomings.

The only reason to trade him is his value; which is at a peak right now.  You'll never do better with him.

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Just now, cruzer1 said:

The only reason to trade him is his value; which is at a peak right now.  You'll never do better with him.

Disagree--we are not a team looking to rebuild, in spite of how many have interpreted Avila's comments.  Kinsler provides a key piece in our attempt to win the AL Central next year, which is very winnable.

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40 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

No, it's not a couple of dumb tweets.  I don't worry about dumb tweets.  I see smart people saying he should be traded every year, people that I agree with on most baseball topics.  I still don't agree on Kinsler though.  

I don't think most smart people thought he'd improve at the plate and continue to be elite in the field. That's probably somewhat true for this coming year as well.

We also had Travis and Suarez at the time in the system who would have filled in capably if we had traded him.

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Payroll reduction only option:

Maybin 9 million

Krod 6 million

Pelfrey 8

Sanchez 8

Lowe 3

The buyouts would apply to 2016, but that helps with 2017 luxury tax.

These moves do nothing to build the system but would give the Tigers the best chance in 2017.

After 2017,

JD 12 million

Upton 22 million

Use the money on a new OF. Trade Kinsler if necessary.

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21 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Payroll reduction only option:

Maybin 9 million

Krod 6 million

Pelfrey 8

Sanchez 8

Lowe 3

The buyouts would apply to 2016, but that helps with 2017 luxury tax.

These moves do nothing to build the system but would give the Tigers the best chance in 2017.

Well, that makes a number of assumptions.  Also, that doesn't really tell us where the ballclub would stand relative to the total payroll. We only paid $5.5 for Maybin in 2016, if we have to buy him out at $1 million, that may only be a $4.5 million savings (as an example).  There's a lot of ways to look at it.  But I agree, if you can trade all those players and achieve those savings, maybe you can take a crack at competing in 2017.  But I don't think that's the direction we are leaning. However, I also don't think we are tearing it all down, either. 

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58 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

I don't think most smart people thought he'd improve at the plate and continue to be elite in the field. That's probably somewhat true for this coming year as well.

We also had Travis and Suarez at the time in the system who would have filled in capably if we had traded him.

 

1 hour ago, ballmich said:

That's because when we traded for him, he was a borderline average defender and had a severely declining bat.  In fact Texas was considering moving him to 1B IIRC.  He was a monster offensively and defensively in 2011, and then fell off a cliff defensively in 2012 and stayed there in 2013.  And his bat suddenly became very mediocre at the same time.  The player we thought we got in that trade was a much worse player than Kinsler turned out to be.  When he popped in 2014 and 2015, it was out of line with what we saw in 2012-13, and due to his age looked to be an outlier each year.  It's really only 2016, to me, that has solidified that 2014-16 was not the outlier, but it was probably more 2012-13 as the outlier. Regardless, I think when you see something that looks like an outlier on a veteran player who is reaching the end of his productive span, you have to think about trading the player. 

But we didn't trade him, and that turned out to be the best move so far.  That doesn't mean it's the best move going forward though. Also, I think that teams are more apt to hang on to verteran players too long and receive limited value back for them (if any), than to trade them too early.  No one should be in a rush to dump him, but I think the team would be wise to be shopping him to see if they can get a trade return that makes sense. 

 

 

You guys should have gone with your gut like me.  

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Avila said he doesn't have a payroll target, so it doesn't have to be a reduction.  However, what is clear is that they will not add to payroll for next year.

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On Sanchez (and Pelfrey), I think the Tigers might be best going into spring training and see how both Sanchez and Pelfrey do as "starters".  I know this sounds goofy but if Boyd/Norris don't have a very good spring (and need a little time at AAA to work it out) or if one of Fulmer, Verlander or Zimmerman are injured in spring training, Sanchez/Pelfrey having a good spring training would give the Tigers another in house option just in case disaster struck.

If no Tiger front 5 starters get hurt in spring (and they look fine) that would make Sanchez or Pelfrey expendable and especially if Sanchez or Pelfrey had a good spring too, that would not hurt their trade value either.  It seems to me that there is always one ballclub that features a key injury and is looking to replace a player just a week or two before the season starts and that might be a better time to unload Sanchez or Pelfrey than this off season...

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

he does not appear to be aging and likely has at least two seasons left where his age shouldn't factor.

There are a number of players in the history of the game who were quite productive in their mid thirties that fell off a cliff seemingly overnight.

There is no way I would make the claim that he has at least two seasons where age shouldn't factor.

Heck, if forced to guess, I'd guess it is more likely he start to fall off sometime in the next two seasons than he maintain his level of productivity over the next two years.

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

No one is taking either.  As DD used to day, "you try and trade 'em."

He still says it, but now he's talking about Pablo Sandoval

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

Avila said he doesn't have a payroll target, so it doesn't have to be a reduction.  However, what is clear is that they will not add to payroll for next year.

I suspect there is at least a soft target for 2017, and maybe a harder target for 2018.  That said, I don't expect him to tell us there is a payroll target, or tell us what it is.  I think he would be putting the organization at a disadvantage going public with that sort of information.  As is, he may have said too much. Although he certainly does have to manage fan expectations too.

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1 hour ago, STLTiger69 said:

On Sanchez (and Pelfrey), I think the Tigers might be best going into spring training and see how both Sanchez and Pelfrey do as "starters".  I know this sounds goofy but if Boyd/Norris don't have a very good spring (and need a little time at AAA to work it out) or if one of Fulmer, Verlander or Zimmerman are injured in spring training, Sanchez/Pelfrey having a good spring training would give the Tigers another in house option just in case disaster struck.

If no Tiger front 5 starters get hurt in spring (and they look fine) that would make Sanchez or Pelfrey expendable and especially if Sanchez or Pelfrey had a good spring too, that would not hurt their trade value either.  It seems to me that there is always one ballclub that features a key injury and is looking to replace a player just a week or two before the season starts and that might be a better time to unload Sanchez or Pelfrey than this off season...

I think if you wait until ST, then you probably have lost the opportunity to get another team to take on their salaries (or a portion of them).  Teams generally spend their payrolls and aren't holding a lot back for ST acquisitions.  I don't think we have to move these guys as soon as the FA period starts, but probably by the end of December you'd want to have moved at least one of them. 

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

 

 

You guys should have gone with your gut like me.  

I don't remember pushing a Kinsler trade, and certainly not too hard if I mentioned the possibility of one. With no 2B replacement, it wouldn't have made a lot of sense.  

I was, however, against the Fielder/Kinsler trade, because I thought that Kinsler was on a pretty steep decline at that point and figured that Fielder had room to bounce back.  And I'll admit to being wrong about that. 

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Saw something on my Facebook feed a little while ago that came out maybe 2 or 3 days ago that the Astros could have interest in Verlander. It's the NY Post I think, so I don't necessarily trust it. Would be interesting though

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, tiger337 said:

OK, everybody recognizes how awesome Kinsler is, but they still want him moved every year and I never like any of the returns they suggest.  :)

Kendrick,Calhoun and Baez? 

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Well, that makes a number of assumptions.  Also, that doesn't really tell us where the ballclub would stand relative to the total payroll. We only paid $5.5 for Maybin in 2016, if we have to buy him out at $1 million, that may only be a $4.5 million savings (as an example).  There's a lot of ways to look at it.  But I agree, if you can trade all those players and achieve those savings, maybe you can take a crack at competing in 2017.  But I don't think that's the direction we are leaning. However, I also don't think we are tearing it all down, either. 

I'm referring to next year's payroll obviously.

I forget the details, but I had estimated the 2017 payroll to be about 200, and that included the various raises and such.

I don't think looking at savings relative to 2016 is the right way to look at it.

Also, applying buyouts to 2016 can be beneficial if the result is a 2017 payroll that gets under the tax, because their are benefits to being under the tax beyond simply not paying the tax. The money taxed is not really a big deal. I think you are not eligible for revenue sharing if you are above the tax. And being eligible and receiving revenue sharing puts you in the pot for competitive balance picks. Recall the Tigers got one a few years ago. And there is of course the benefit of not being over the tax in consecutive years.

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2 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Kendrick,Calhoun and Baez? 

That's not a great haul.  The Dodgers can afford more, and there should be plenty of suitors lining up for Kinsler.  I wouldn't take a contract back.

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2 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

That's not a great haul.  The Dodgers can afford more, and there should be plenty of suitors lining up for Kinsler.  I wouldn't take a contract back.

If you are taking back a contract, you might as well not trade Kinsler when the point of trading him is at least in part, reducing payroll.  Never say never, but its unlikely that we take back any salary in any deal this winter. 

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Just now, ballmich said:

If you are taking back a contract, you might as well not trade Kinsler when the point of trading him is at least in part, reducing payroll.  Never say never, but its unlikely that we take back any salary in any deal this winter. 

Agreed.

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Just now, cruzer1 said:

Agreed.

Well, a caveat being that by taking back salary, I meant a salary dump.  It is possible to take back some salary attached to a young cost controlled player that we are targeting, etc. 

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2 hours ago, tigerfanatic said:

Saw something on my Facebook feed a little while ago that came out maybe 2 or 3 days ago that the Astros could have interest in Verlander. It's the NY Post I think, so I don't necessarily trust it. Would be interesting though

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

They would have to empty their farm system for him.  I'd be interested in seeing what they would have to offer, but I think their system has fallen after graduations a bit.

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As an unrelated aside... who would have guessed that Corey Kluber would develop into such a MLB stud?  Such below average minor league results all the way through the Pads/Cleveland systems.  With the exception of the high K rate, he never had any dominant seasons, he walked a lot of guys, his WHIP was uninspiring.... all right up to his 2013 first full season in the majors. Then suddenly in 2014, things all changed for him and he's now a premier SP.  That stuff fascinates me. 

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