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Sydney_Fife

2016 Offseason

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Some salary changes we might want to consider for the 2017 team:

Kinsler $3MM decrease

Maybin (if option exercised) $3.5MM increase

JD $5MM increase

K-Rod (if option exercised) $1.5MM decrease

2nd Year Arb: Iglesias, JWilson, Romine -- increases??

1st Year Arb: Nick, AWilson, Gose... Rondon?

I haven't reviewed the arbitration guys yet for an estimate on 2017, but we are probably look at $7-10 million increase collectively from the current roster.

 

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10 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

Speaking of the Eddie Bonine statue.  I think it would be way more cost effective it it were made of recycled plastic.   Can anyone who knows about such things give me a price on a Kyle Ryan statue in the same scale as the Statue of Liberty made from various grades of materials? 

according to this a life sized 3d printed statue is $75k

https://www.wired.com/2015/02/3d-printed-selfies/

So, if it were merely a consideration of scaling it up...the SOL is 151' and she's roughly 30 times the size of a human female at 5'.

The Kyle Ryan statue of Triumph would cost $2.250m   A total bargain.

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think you are a bit overly harsh on machado. I don't think you would really be surprised if he hit .200.

He actually had a pretty nice season at Toledo this year, and if I remember he had gotten off to a slow start.

Iglesias is a fine player, but he about to start getting expensive. If they could get something decent for him, trading him could make sense.

I think it would make a lot of sense to keep Iglesias at SS and see if his BABIP rebounds in 2017, and have Machado as the utility infielder. That probably squeezes Romine, but would be a good transition for Machado into a potential everyday role in 2018. 

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22 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I think Shelton should use skinny Dmitri as his avatar, but perhaps that is too obvious?

I was hoping for B.A. Baracus, personally.

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3 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Kinsler is the player they should be looking into trading.

Agreed, but he's been a key cog the last two seasons and would leave a rather large hole at the top of our lineup and up the middle defensively.  I don't know that we can plug and play Machado here without a big drop-off. So I guess the question would be who is going to replace Kinsler if traded... We'd almost need to get a 2B in return.  

That Devon Travis trade is looking pretty bad right about now.

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Some salary changes we might want to consider for the 2017 team:

Kinsler $3MM decrease

Maybin (if option exercised) $3.5MM increase

JD $5MM increase

K-Rod (if option exercised) $1.5MM decrease

2nd Year Arb: Iglesias, JWilson, Romine -- increases??

1st Year Arb: Nick, AWilson, Gose... Rondon?

I haven't reviewed the arbitration guys yet for an estimate on 2017, but we are probably look at $7-10 million increase collectively from the current roster.

 

For the non arb guys like JD and Ian, the increases and decreases are kind of empty at least as far as the luxury tax goes. I don't think the actual payroll fluctuation for those guys is that important. They still count the same as they did last year for tax purposes.

But anyway, it's true that we don't really have anyone coming off the books this year. So unless the tax changes (which it probably will), our tax number is going to go up.

Hopefully the ability to go above the tax in 2016 wasn't a one year thing. I think Avila can push for another year above the tax if necessary. Had they ended up going .500 and ended up out of the race a couple weeks ago, it might be a tougher sell. The performance of the young pitchers may have saved the payroll for 2017.

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I think it would make a lot of sense to keep Iglesias at SS and see if his BABIP rebounds in 2017, and have Machado as the utility infielder. That probably squeezes Romine, but would be a good transition for Machado into a potential everyday role in 2018. 

Yeah, that would be fine. But I think they keep romine. They seem to like having two guys that can play the infield on the bench.

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7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

For the non arb guys like JD and Ian, the increases and decreases are kind of empty at least as far as the luxury tax goes. I don't think the actual payroll fluctuation for those guys is that important. They still count the same as they did last year for tax purposes.

But anyway, it's true that we don't really have anyone coming off the books this year. So unless the tax changes (which it probably will), our tax number is going to go up.

Hopefully the ability to go above the tax in 2016 wasn't a one year thing. I think Avila can push for another year above the tax if necessary. Had they ended up going .500 and ended up out of the race a couple weeks ago, it might be a tougher sell. The performance of the young pitchers may have saved the payroll for 2017.

What was our luxury tax number in 2016, do you know?  I seem to recall something like $205-210 million, but that could be wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Yeah, that would be fine. But I think they keep romine. They seem to like having two guys that can play the infield on the bench.

I would not be surprised if they kept both Machado and Romine. But of course that handicaps the team from carrying two OF's.  But I would guess that they value Machado enough to put him on the roster since he is out of options, and probably would opt to keep Romine as well, at least for mone more season.  

 

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I would not be surprised if they kept both Machado and Romine. But of course that handicaps the team from carrying two OF's.  But I would guess that they value Machado enough to put him on the roster since he is out of options, and probably would opt to keep Romine as well, at least for mone more season.  

 

Yeah, 2017 seems like romine and machado, and 2018 could be machado and jones.

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What was our luxury tax number in 2016, do you know?  I seem to recall something like $205-210 million, but that could be wrong. 

I have no idea.

The actual number comes out in December I think. I think they can get creative in reducing the 2017 number by releasing some guys and paying them now. Sanchez would be an example if they decide he is toast. Lowe is another. Even pelfrey. If they doubt the guy is in their 2017 plans, and they can't be traded, they could cut them now.

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I might be wrong about a couple of these, but I show the following players as out of options:

1. Machado

2. Collins

3. Moya

4. Gose

5. Alex Wilson

6. Ryan

7. Rondon

8. Farmer

9. Hardy

I originally thought that Farmer had an option, but I think that we used one in August 2014, plus of course 2015 & 2016.

Also I think Hardy was optioned in April 2015, then recalled without having pitched for Toledo, so I show him as out of options as well. 

I think Greene has one option left because his 2016 minor league stint was rehab related, not an option. 

 

 

 

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I might be wrong about a couple of these, but I show the following players as out of options:

1. Machado

2. Collins

3. Moya

4. Gose

5. Alex Wilson

6. Ryan

7. Rondon

8. Farmer

9. Hardy

I originally thought that Farmer had an option, but I think that we used one in August 2014, plus of course 2015 & 2016.

Also I think Hardy was optioned in April 2015, then recalled without having pitched for Toledo, so I show him as out of options as well. 

I think Greene has one option left because his 2016 minor league stint was rehab related, not an option. 

 

 

 

It really depends exactly when these guys were added to the 40 man roster, and the amount of time they spent in the minors after they were added.

I think you are correct on Farmer. If I remember correctly, he was on the 40 man during 2014, which is why he got that spot start late in the year.

Hardy in 2015 is hard to say. If he was only in Toledo for a week or so, then he didn't use an option. But again it depends on when he was added to the 40 man.

Alex Wilson might have one left. He had one available at the start of last season, but how quickly was he called up that year?

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11 minutes ago, Shelton said:

It really depends exactly when these guys were added to the 40 man roster, and the amount of time they spent in the minors after they were added.

I think you are correct on Farmer. If I remember correctly, he was on the 40 man during 2014, which is why he got that spot start late in the year.

Hardy in 2015 is hard to say. If he was only in Toledo for a week or so, then he didn't use an option. But again it depends on when he was added to the 40 man.

Alex Wilson might have one left. He had one available at the start of last season, but how quickly was he called up that year?

Alex Wilson definately used options in 2013, 2014 and 2015.  In 2015, he was optioned on 3/24 and recalled on 4/23.  

Hardy is hard to say.  In 2014 he was selected on 6/15/14, optioned 8/11/14, recalled 8/12/14 (one day later).  Then in 2015, optioned on 4/3/15, recalled 4/9/15.  Then obviously he used the option in 2016.  I guess he may have an option (or even two) remaining, although I'm not sure.

Farmer was selected on 8/13/14, optioned on 8/14/14, recalled on 8/23/14, optioned on 8/24/14, and recalled again on 9/2/14.  We clearly used options in 2015 and 2016. So I think he is out of options.

 

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http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml#team_output::none

2.6 games below average OF, 0.5 games below average DH. These were the most disappointing positions to me because that's where we spent a lot of money.

The outfield doesn't have to change, because that poor score was all down to Upton's ice cold start, injuries to JD and Cam, and somewhat random poor defense. But I think we really need to sign or trade for a 4th OF that can cover inevitable injuries to Maybin and Victor. There's not anybody obvious out there, but there are many options.

I also wouldn't be opposed to dealing JD, assuming the return is 2 or 3 good players at AA or higher. We especially lack pitching depth that's close to ML ready, and we'll probably need some of that next year. There are many Rajai Davis types out there that could be signed as replacements. You would lose that top-end power, but you would gain in defense and depth and hopefully young pitching. If such a trade doesn't materialize, there is nothing wrong with keeping him and taking a draft pick at worse. I don't see any obvious landing spots for JD so I think the chance of a deal is small.

There also seems to be a lot of relief pitching depth on the FA market. I think at least 1 RP needs to be signed. Not a lot out there with starting pitching so we have to hope that Znn comes back okay and Norris/Fulmer/JV carry their performances over. Then hope for good things from Boyd or grit your teeth with Pelfrey. Or make a trade somehow.

I think the minimum off-season for me would be 1 catcher, 1 OF, 1 relief pitcher.

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Alex Wilson definately used options in 2013, 2014 and 2015.  In 2015, he was optioned on 3/24 and recalled on 4/23.  

Hardy is hard to say.  In 2014 he was selected on 6/15/14, optioned 8/11/14, recalled 8/12/14 (one day later).  Then in 2015, optioned on 4/3/15, recalled 4/9/15.  Then obviously he used the option in 2016.  I guess he may have an option (or even two) remaining, although I'm not sure.

Farmer was selected on 8/13/14, optioned on 8/14/14, recalled on 8/23/14, optioned on 8/24/14, and recalled again on 9/2/14.  We clearly used options in 2015 and 2016. So I think he is out of options.

 

I don't think an option was used for Farmer in 2014. I think that was less than 20 days. I didn't bother to count all of them so I could be wrong.

Looks like Hardy has two more option years.

I'm not sure about 2015 for Wilson. When was opening day? The 20 days begin on opening day I think, even though he was optioned during spring training. If opening day was 4/1 or something, then he used the option of course.

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19 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml#team_output::none

2.6 games below average OF, 0.5 games below average DH. These were the most disappointing positions to me because that's where we spent a lot of money.

 

Only three AL teams have more than 0 wins above replacement at DH? The ChiSox had the fourth best OF in the AL?  That whole analysis across the board doesn't seem right to me.  

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12 minutes ago, ballmich said:

Only three AL teams have more than 0 wins above replacement at DH? The ChiSox had the fourth best OF in the AL?  That whole analysis across the board doesn't seem right to me.  

This is wins above average, not WAR.

Eaton had an incredible defensive year and Melky was actually good at the plate (that one could have fooled me too).

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http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016.shtml#team_output::none

2.6 games below average OF, 0.5 games below average DH. These were the most disappointing positions to me because that's where we spent a lot of money.

The outfield doesn't have to change, because that poor score was all down to Upton's ice cold start, injuries to JD and Cam, and somewhat random poor defense. But I think we really need to sign or trade for a 4th OF that can cover inevitable injuries to Maybin and Victor. There's not anybody obvious out there, but there are many options.

I also wouldn't be opposed to dealing JD, assuming the return is 2 or 3 good players at AA or higher. We especially lack pitching depth that's close to ML ready, and we'll probably need some of that next year. There are many Rajai Davis types out there that could be signed as replacements. You would lose that top-end power, but you would gain in defense and depth and hopefully young pitching. If such a trade doesn't materialize, there is nothing wrong with keeping him and taking a draft pick at worse. I don't see any obvious landing spots for JD so I think the chance of a deal is small.

There also seems to be a lot of relief pitching depth on the FA market. I think at least 1 RP needs to be signed. Not a lot out there with starting pitching so we have to hope that Znn comes back okay and Norris/Fulmer/JV carry their performances over. Then hope for good things from Boyd or grit your teeth with Pelfrey. Or make a trade somehow.

I think the minimum off-season for me would be 1 catcher, 1 OF, 1 relief pitcher.

I think I agree with this for the most part. I would happy with our outfield coming back intact. I'm surprised it ended up being so low, even given the injuries. But then I recall just how bad upton was early on, resulting in an overall season that was merely ok. And then there were all the CF starts with goes and romine and Collins while maybin was hurt. And of course all the RF starts for aviles et al.

The thing about the 4th OF for 2017 is that we still don't have any obvious platoon candidates. Maybin, I guess, if there is a lefty CF option there, but that type of player is probably hard to find, and would be starting caliber if he could be good enough to be better than maybin. So I think we could get by with moya/Collins on the bench, especially with Stewart and gerber coming on.

If we do trade JD for the requisite return, there are definitely ways to plug that hole. A rajai level player, paired with moya or Collins, could probably hold their own. Not JD level, but maybe only a win worse? And in return for some legit prospects, could be worth rolling the dice there.

I would like to see a couple RPs signed. That's easier said than done, but I have little confidence in our current stable. Krod can probably fake it as a closer for one more season. Rondon is tentatively promising. But I don't like anyone else as a reliable setup guy. I feel like you really want to have two reliable setup guys. Lowe was an attempt at that. J Wilson looked to be one, but fell off. Greene also. If those guys pan out, great. But it never hurts to have a surplus of setup guys.

Catcher to me is a afterthought. Was Avila any good this year? Guys like Bobby Wilson and holaday are easily gained. Even Hicks could be fine. They are going to give McCann starter's time again, so the backup is kind of irrelevant to me. They will find somebody, but I'm confident that whoever they sign will be met with a collective shrug of the shoulders and a thread with no more than 40 posts. Unless it is alex Avila, whom everyone hates.

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Agreed, I would just add that we should go after a better 4th OF because he (or another OF) could also be a 2nd DH. Ideally that'd be a LHH CF as well. John Jay and Bourn qualify, if barely. A few better LHH corner OFs.

In my ideal world you swing a trade for what Gose was supposed to be. A Keon Broxton type. But that's way easier said than done.

I sure wish we somehow had Shelby Miller last off-season.

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Agreed, I would just add that we should go after a better 4th OF because he (or another OF) could also be a 2nd DH. Ideally that'd be a LHH CF as well. John Jay and Bourn qualify, if barely. A few better LHH corner OFs.

In my ideal world you swing a trade for what Gose was supposed to be. A Keon Broxton type. But that's way easier said than done.

I sure wish we somehow had Shelby Miller last off-season.

He's no Shelby Miller, and he doesn't have great overall numbers, but Boyd could be a guy to consider trading. Clearly the third banana behind fulmer and Norris. JV and JZ aren't going anywhere. And eventually someone is going step up from the minors. You could spin Boyd for a decent package I think. The question is who takes his spot. Pelfrey and Sanchez again? If they aren't traded, it's possible. Farmer could maybe take the ball every five days. Maybe there is a guy they like that they think could handle it. Shane Greene still draws breath. You hate to give up the depth.

Depends on the offer, of course, but Boyd is very tradeable to me.

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Never say never, but I don't think you can get enough value out of Boyd to make it a worthwhile trade.  5 years of control for a quality LHP, but who has yet to show a strong enough track record to seemingly demand the kind of return we'd need to deal him... that's a long shot that someone would pay up the 3 or more prospects I think it should take.  I probably am over valuing him, but the fact is that he's very valuable to our team as a 5th starter who is cheap and controllable. 

 

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Never say never, but I don't think you can get enough value out of Boyd to make it a worthwhile trade.  5 years of control for a quality LHP, but who has yet to show a strong enough track record to seemingly demand the kind of return we'd need to deal him... that's a long shot that someone would pay up the 3 or more prospects I think it should take.  I probably am over valuing him, but the fact is that he's very valuable to our team as a 5th starter who is cheap and controllable. 

 

That same value to us would apply to another team, too. That's the very reason I would consider trading him.

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21 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Kinsler is the player they should be looking into trading.

They can probably replace him with Suarez.

 

 

Oh, wait a minute,.....

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