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Sydney_Fife

2016 Offseason

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

Just turn things over to a Machado/Romine platoon at short?  Bring back Aybar?

I'd be surprised if Dixon can hit 200 in the majors. I don't think Romine would all that much of a drop off. He is a good glove and his OPS is about the same a Iglesias'. The questions are whether it would go up or down with regular playing time. He would also be 31 going into next season - is he a guy who will keep his quickness for at least the next 2-3 years? Iglesias should just be coming into his prime hitting years.

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I'd be surprised if Dixon can hit 200 in the majors. I don't think Romine would all that much of a drop off. He is a good glove and his OPS is about the same a Iglesias'. The questions are whether it would go up or down with regular playing time. He would also be 31 going into next season - is he a guy who will keep his quickness for at least the next 2-3 years? Iglesias should just be coming into his prime hitting years.

I think you are a bit overly harsh on machado. I don't think you would really be surprised if he hit .200.

He actually had a pretty nice season at Toledo this year, and if I remember he had gotten off to a slow start.

Iglesias is a fine player, but he about to start getting expensive. If they could get something decent for him, trading him could make sense.

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15 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I think you are a bit overly harsh on machado.

What kind of confidence does his own org have in him if they went and got a washed-up guy like Aybar instead of calling him up? Also 31 errors in the last two seasons - though I have no clue if scoring is tough or trivial in the intl league.

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My final Miggy v Aaron comparison.  One is the raw #'s.  I also created a chart giving a graphical comparison.  To help keep the perspective visible I added a few multiples to some of the data like walks, and mulitplied the slash line figures by 1000.  Otherwise the chart looked stupid and you couldn't really see the differences.

 

Cabrera_aaronOct2016.PNG

Cabrera_aaronOct2016_Chart.PNG

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Reasons for Optimism next year:

Verlander/Fulmer/Norris/Zimmerman could be a top 7 rotation? Top 10 for sure.

We won't be giving a combined 48 starts to Pelfrey and Sanchez.

KRdod should be the same but Rondon looks like he could be a legit late inning weapon. And if Jimenez is ready we could have and actual plus bullpen.

Upton will be better.

Castellanos should continue to improve.

Kinsler, Victor, Miggy, and JD should produce similar numbers. Maybe Maybin too.

They will attempt to upgrade at SS and C and maybe actually succeed at one of them.

The bench will be better next year, it sucked this year. Aviles received 167 abs and hit to a 528 ops, while getting alot of his ab's in RF and 3B. Salty hit 171. Romine is a generic utility guy who cant hit. Collins, Moya, Gose, and others where all bad.

 

With some luck on the injury front and a positive player acquisition for for either C, SS or the bullpen  this team should be better next year.

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The key question is whether or not payroll needs to be cut. It's impossible to predict how this offseason will go. Assuming there is no mandate to cut payroll, I think we probably stand pat for the most part.

If we do need to cut payroll, JD and kinsler are probably gone. In that approach, the next season could be a bit of an experimental year. You could try getting through the season on the back of the rotation. Maybe trading those two brings back a young 2b and a CF. Maybe you could then trade maybin for a stop gap corner outfielder. Then you hope Gerber or Stewart can graduate midseason, or moya can be an average guy.

Ideally, though, I think I would like to see them roll the dice with the current cast one more time. They can always change course midseason and move kinsler and JD if it isn't working. Or they could make a bold move and trade JD midseason even if they are in contention if gerber/Stewart look ready to contribute.

I think this could be an easier offseason than last year. We aren't forced to plug any major holes like last year.

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For me the key question is whether Shelton is going to get an avatar.

My enjoyment of the season is based, in part, in the quality of posting here, and avatars add to that.

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Liston went for years without an avatar, but he's the kind of poster who can pull that off.  Shelton is a great poster, but he is not an avatar free poster.  I am not saying that Liston is better than Shelton.  It's just that Liston knows how to function without an avatar.  It's a skill that I don't think Shelton has.  He is hurting both his reputation and the quality of the board by not adding an avatar.   

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I'm not sure if the avatar is coming back.

It's been a long and frustrating season. The loss of the avatar seems fitting.

I agree that the enjoyment of a season and offseason is highly dependent on the quality of the posting and discourse here. Unfortunately, I feel like this was a less enjoyable season than it could have been.

Maybe it's recency bias, or the way the season ended, but the level of negativity and conflict in here seems to have been at an all time high this year. That said, there were ample reasons to be negative throughout this season. And it's always easier to criticize, so that is to be expected.

Maybe this offseason will be different. I think there are reasons to be optimistic about the team.

Part of me hopes they fire ausmus and bring in another rookie manager, just so the tone around here will change. Maybe we could start rosterbating again with a new manager. Maybe a new manager would be more likely to shake up the batting order and we could post potential lineups again, like this one:

Kinsler

Cabrera

Upton

JD

Castellanos

Victor

Maybin

McCann

Iglesias

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4 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Maybe it's recency bias, or the way the season ended, but the level of negativity and conflict in here seems to have been at an all time high this year. That said, there were ample reasons to be negative throughout this season. And it's always easier to criticize, so that is to be expected.

Maybe this offseason will be different. I think there are reasons to be optimistic about the team.

Part of me hopes they fire ausmus and bring in another rookie manager, just so the tone around here will change. Maybe we could start rosterbating again with a new manager. Maybe a new manager would be more likely to shake up the batting order and we could post potential lineups again, like this one:

 

I do not think the negativity and conflict is any worse than past years.  I do think Tigers fan now suffer from Red Sox/Yankee fan syndrome where they think every season is a failure if they don't make the playoffs.  Success has made expectations unreasonably high.

I do agree that board discourse would be a lot better if Ausmus was fired.  It seems all we talk about in game threads is how Ausmus is responsible for every loss.  The season might be more enjoyable without Ausmus even if they don't win more.  

 

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I'd be surprised if Dixon can hit 200 in the majors. I don't think Romine would all that much of a drop off. He is a good glove and his OPS is about the same a Iglesias'. The questions are whether it would go up or down with regular playing time. He would also be 31 going into next season - is he a guy who will keep his quickness for at least the next 2-3 years? Iglesias should just be coming into his prime hitting years.

Romine's OPS might have been close to Iglesias in 2016, but I don't think one can argue it is "about the same".  Romine is a career .590 while Iglesias is a career .678 OPS. ~100 points is a big enough difference to warrant keeping Iglesias around, if only to see if Iglesias' BABIP rebounds from a career low in 2016.  He was 55 points lower than 2015 and 80 points lower than 2013. 

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16 hours ago, Sydney_Fife said:

I think JD remains a prime trade candidate. They have to get something for him before he hits free agency. They also need to get more left handed hitting and speed in their lineup. 

I think you can listen on any player short of Miggy and Verlander, and probably the group of young SP.  But I don't see a trade of JD as realistic or prudent, because it likely leaves us with a huge void in RF.  And that doesn't make sense to me. Not to mention there is not a hole in the roster that we are this desparate to plug via a trade of JD.  

But if someone wants to knock us out with a Shelby Miller-like return, like I said, we can always listen to offers. 

Plus... JD is somewhat one of Avila's guys, so I do think that makes it less likely he is traded and more likely that we do work out an extension with him.

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15 hours ago, Hart said:

I don't think anybody is taking V-Mart at this point.  But it's worth a try I guess.  If we do keep him, I would like to see him used more as a pinch hitter and less as an everyday DH.  

If he finds it beneficial, I suspose we could ease off his playing time a little.  But he was a .823 OPS guy in 2016, so it's not like he fell off a cliff here.  League average DH put up a .780 OPS for the season. 

He only started 143 games (138 DH, 5 1B) in 2016.  Maybe if he was a 130 game guy, he would be a little fresher and prone to fewer bad streaks?   I don't know. 

Clearly he's a guy you could look to trade if someone will take the contract, but we don't need to do anything drastic here.  He's still an above average DH. And once you pull Big Papi's numbers out of the league average, probably much better than average. 

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14 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

but you may reach a point where you can get 850 OPS from him in 450 PA but only 700 OPS in 600 PA.

True, but we haven't seen that point yet.  But I would agree, if we get to that stage, better to use him for 450 PA's. 

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Yearly WAR argument...

jBLKL2P.png

 

Does 19th in the league sound about right for Cabby this year?  Is he really the 19th best player in the league?  Should he be higher or lower?  Or is he right about where he should be?

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Small differences in WAR are meaningless, so Cabrera is somewhere between 15 to 25th most valuable player in the league this year by the metric.

I don't care how good Kiermaier is in center, he is not more valuable getting 60% of the AB with a 100 OPS+.  So that one looks pretty sketchy.

The rest are largely 2-way players who can hit pretty good, albeit not at Cabrera's level.  Ortiz had a monster year as a DH, so I can buy that.

I have no real issue with that list other than Kiermaier. 

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14 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

would DD trade Sandoval for Victor + Anibal?

Money is close to a wash, but I'm not sure why you'd do that.  Victor is an above average DH and Sanchez is a potentially servicable swingman.  Meanwhile Sandoval is terrible, and hasn't had what I'd consider a good season since 2012. 

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59 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Let's be realistic, those of you who think that Shelton will get an avatar are delusional. Stop hoping now. 

I think he should use it as a motivator for the 2017 Tigers.  If they win the division he'll get an Avatar of the manager (whoever that is) or of Rich Dubee.  Proclaim it!

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Just now, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

That is as crazy as erecting a statue to Eddie Bonine.

I think I've made it clear that I am that crazy. 

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Speaking of the Eddie Bonine statue.  I think it would be way more cost effective it it were made of recycled plastic.   Can anyone who knows about such things give me a price on a Kyle Ryan statue in the same scale as the Statue of Liberty made from various grades of materials? 

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