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Current Tigers Hall of Fame chances

Current Tiger's chances of making the Hall of Fame?  

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Which current Tigers will make the Hall of Fame after their careers are over?

    • Miguel Cabrera
    • Francisco Rodriguez
    • Justin Verlander
    • Ian Kinsler
    • Other
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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Because historical precedent.

Like Phil Rizzuto

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Phil Rizzuto is in the hall in no small part because he was an announcer.  Much like George Kell, and George was a worse player than Rizzuto.

So we are clear, presuming Rizzuto is the worst Yankee in the Hall (I'd argue Combs or Lazzeri, personally), I would suggest most teams who have been around as long as the Yankees have players worse than Rizzuto in the hall.  In other words finding a marginal hall of fame player from the Yankees doesn't show or demonstrate anything because most old teams have marginal HoF players.

Heck, the Yankees have a relatively low percentage of marginal Hall of Fame players and a high percentage of no doubt Hall of Fame players - and - I'd suggest a decent number of guys who probably belong aren't in, in part because they were measured against the DiMaggio, Mantle, Gehrig, Berra, Ruth, Ford standard.

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Phil Rizzuto is in the hall in no small part because he was an announcer.  Much like George Kell, and George was a worse player than Rizzuto.

So we are clear, presuming Rizzuto is the worst Yankee in the Hall (I'd argue Combs or Lazzeri, personally), I would suggest most teams who have been around as long as the Yankees have players worse than Rizzuto in the hall.  In other words finding a marginal hall of fame player from the Yankees doesn't show or demonstrate anything because most old teams have marginal HoF players.

Heck, the Yankees have a relatively low percentage of marginal Hall of Fame players and a high percentage of no doubt Hall of Fame players - and - I'd suggest a decent number of guys who probably belong aren't in, in part because they were measured against the DiMaggio, Mantle, Gehrig, Berra, Ruth, Ford standard.

The real ice maker here is that he will be in more playoff series because he's on a team that is always in the playoffs.  Because of that he has a chance to stick in the mind of the voter.  Playoff experiences matter to voters. 

 

As of now, Porcello's playoff experiences have been low quality. 

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10 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

So you changed the goalposts from him having an advantage from being in a media market to getting more play-off exposure than he did in Detroit?

Not really.  The exposure and playoff chances are part of the same benefit of being in Boston. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Because he wasn't receiving exposure or playoff experience in Detroit?

Porcello hasn't yet had a good playoffs with Detroit.  He did pitch ok in 2009's game 163 but his body of work is not exceptional.  

Lets see if he can change that in Boston. 

As for his ultimate opportunity to make the HOF, it will be helped if he does well by the greater exposure he will receive playing in the hot house media environment that is Boston. They are ESPN FFS. 

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I doubt being in Boston or Detroit isn't going to change his play-off luck, and it is possible he would get roughly the same play-off chances with Detroit had he ended up staying here.

I do not think there is any inherent advantage getting into the HoF as a Red Sox or Yankee because of ESPN FFS.

Feel free to put the shovel down at your leisure.

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Yeah with all the baseball on TV now, the extra inning packages, the internet and social media etc. I don't think it matters where you play at, you're gonna get exposure.

Just look at all the recent award winners,  many have come from the West Coast or smaller markets.  

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On 9/29/2016 at 0:37 AM, Keepleyland2 said:

Kinsler doesn't come close to any marker. He has 1,600 hits, 210 singers and, only, 783 RBI, with a career WAR 52.6 (chet lemon finished with 55). 

How the heck does someone employee that many singers?  And also... why would anyone employ that many singers?

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I think Verlander is in if he accomplishes any one of these things:

  1. Wins a WS ring while having a good playoff effort
  2. Wins another Cy Young
  3. Wins 250 games
  4. Hits the 3,000 K mark
  5. Throws either one perfect game or two more no-hitters

Personally, I think only two or four should really effect things, but 1, 3, and 5 would play nicely with listing his career stats.  For example:

You're not gonna vote for a pitcher who won over 200 games, has more than 2,800 strike outs, a Cy Young Award, an MVP award, been to 9 All-Star Games and has four no hitters?  There's only two other guys with more than 3 no hitters: Koufax and Ryan...that's some pretty elite company!

 

 

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18 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Just to get to sandburg numbers Kinsler would have to average over 200 hits a year for the next three (he had 178 this year). 300 RBI (he had 83 this year). Meanwhile Ian has four all star games and an 11th place finish in MVP. Sandburg has 10 all star games, 9 gold gloves and a MVP. Kinsler war is currently 52.9 and Snadburg finished 67.5. So unless Kinsler goes 6 + in his age 35-38 season he's likely to fall short there too. So not sure what you guys are getting at. 

Kinsler has basically put up the career of Ray Durham 

If Kinsler matches his performance from 2014 - 2016 in 2017 - 2019 he would have similar numbers to Sandberg...another couple of years and he'd beat Sandberg in the counting stats with fairly similar rate stats.  Is that likely?  Absolutely not, never said that it was likely.  I never said it was an even chance.  I never said that there was even a decent chance of it happening. 

I actually said it was "not unfathomable", which still means unlikely (FWIW I don't disagree that it's even very unlikely, as Biggs said) but it's not impossible/unfathomable.  Kinsler is a freakish athlete for his age.

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11 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It is very unlikely he will put up three similar seasons the next three years given his age.

Don't disagree.  But he is a freakish athlete for his age....I would say at least 15:1 odds against.

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Rick Porcello...more playoff appearances as a member of the Red Sox or as a Tiger going forward? 

What he does with that will be the decider.  I presume more as a member of the **** sox.  

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6 hours ago, RedRamage said:

How the heck does someone employee that many singers?  And also... why would anyone employ that many singers?

I think he's referring to Ian's Jack White connection. We'd hear more about that but Mario doesn't know who Jack White is.

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Rick Porcello has exactly one season to his name that help in a HoF argument.  It honestly isn't a discussion.

The only way the first 7 years of his career help him get in is if he does the solid but unspectacular thing until 2030 netting 300+ wins, and he gets in on the milestone he otherwise wouldn't have gotten had he not started young.

Absent that, the 85-78, 96 ERA+ career record he carried going into this season is not going to help him get into the hall.

For reference, Mussina isn't in with a 270 - 150 record (!), a great ERA+, *and* was really good from day one.  Mike's **** seasons are as good or better than what Porcello did the first 7 years of his career, and he only had 3 or 4 of these merely average seasons sprinkled into an 18 season career.  Pitched a bunch of post season innings and pitched well.  Was great at age 39 and walked away.  And was a Yankee (not that I think that helps his cause any), but addresses your belief playing for them helps someone get into the hall.

I'll say it now.  Porcello will not have a career as good as Mussina.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I'll say it now.  Porcello will not have a career as good as Mussina.

I'll say it now as well. Actually, my "now" is slightly later than his "now". But I'll say this now also: Mussina belongs in the hall.

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Dan Dickerson has an outside chance via the Ford Frick Award. 17 years at the Tigers mic, but already 57 years old so may run out of time. Would probably need to work until 75 to have a real shot.

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5 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Rick Porcello has exactly one season to his name that help in a HoF argument.  It honestly isn't a discussion.

....

I'll say it now.  Porcello will not have a career as good as Mussina.

this year Rick has achieved walk rates and hit rates that are fairly wide outliers for his career, I want to see if he can duplicate any of those again before I'm sold he isn't simply having a career year.  On the plus side, Rick was a guy who looked like he might get better if he could just develop more stamina and maybe now he has and he can sustain it. OTOH, the hits are down and the walks down but the K's are the same, arguing that maybe he isn't pitching much differently and he won't be able to hit 1.3BB/9 again. Maybe something else that helps him is that he may be seeing fewer LH batters at Fenway than he did in Detroit........hmmm......let's see.......as a matter of fact, Rick has faced 51.6% LHB, the lowest in the last 4 yrs. Last yr 55%, 2014 57%, 2013, 53%.  OTOH, interestingly enough he has a positive platoon split against LHB this year for what I would guess is the 1st time in his career. Interesting....He is throwing his change-up slower, maybe the bigger Vdif is helping him against LHB this year.......

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8 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Rick Porcello has exactly one season to his name that help in a HoF argument.  It honestly isn't a discussion.

The only way the first 7 years of his career help him get in is if he does the solid but unspectacular thing until 2030 netting 300+ wins, and he gets in on the milestone he otherwise wouldn't have gotten had he not started young.

Absent that, the 85-78, 96 ERA+ career record he carried going into this season is not going to help him get into the hall.

For reference, Mussina isn't in with a 270 - 150 record (!), a great ERA+, *and* was really good from day one.  Mike's **** seasons are as good or better than what Porcello did the first 7 years of his career, and he only had 3 or 4 of these merely average seasons sprinkled into an 18 season career.  Pitched a bunch of post season innings and pitched well.  Was great at age 39 and walked away.  And was a Yankee (not that I think that helps his cause any), but addresses your belief playing for them helps someone get into the hall.

I'll say it now.  Porcello will not have a career as good as Mussina.

Age 27 and already has 107 wins and a possible cy young.  And he plays for the MOST IMPORTANT TEAM IN BASEBALL. 

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7 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Dan Dickerson has an outside chance via the Ford Frick Award. 17 years at the Tigers mic, but already 57 years old so may run out of time. Would probably need to work until 75 to have a real shot.

That seems odd to me for some reason.  It doesn't seem like it should be 17 already, but I guess the years do kind of fly by.

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10 minutes ago, Casimir said:

That seems odd to me for some reason.  It doesn't seem like it should be 17 already, but I guess the years do kind of fly by.

Part of the reason it may seem like it snuck up is because for Dickerson's first 3 seasons Ernie was still in the booth. So 14 seasons as the lead PBP.

Ken Kal is starting his 21st season as the radio voice of the Red Wings (would have been 22nd if not for the 2005 strike), yet I sometimes still think of him as the new guy who took over for Bruce Martyn.

 

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