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Yoda

Award Predictions

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I think there are going to be three types of voters:

Type 1 will vote for porcello. They don't care as much about Ks when the ERAs are a wash. It doesn't matter how you allowed the runs, just that the runs were allowed. This voter will also love the W-L record.

Type 2 will vote for verlander. He leads in almost every statistical category except for wins. Kluber has a similar resume, but is a tick behind verlander in almost all of them.

Type 3 will vote for Britton. They will say that no starter distinguished himself. They will look at the gaudy era and saves numbers. They will reward him for baltimore's playoff spot, and say that they wouldn't have made it if he were merely a very good closer. This voter will say that they normally wouldn't vote a closer but that what Britton did was special.

I think these three guys are going to each get their share of first place votes. I don't think there are any other candidates that you could put ahead of one of the above three.

I also think the voters that vote for porcello will have JV #2. I don't think the voters that vote for JV will have porcello #2. Britton voters second place vote is a bit harder to decide.

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4 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I saw something like Britton faced 7-8-9 hitters twice as often as 3-4-5 hitters. Food for thought.

The most glaring issue with the the save statistic and the way "closers" are used in general. 

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4 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Trout did have a .371  babip too 

 

edit - damn just realized his career babip is .360. That's nuts

Speed and hits the ball hard. 

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19 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Story got attention at the beginning like Sanchez got at the end. Sanchez has deserved the talk IMO. That said, Fulmer is your ROY easily still IMO. 

Did Betts get more coverage? I agree it should be Trout,but being in the postseason does often matter it seems. 

Not saying he didn't deserve it, but this illustrates why he shouldn't get it. His hot streak came at the very end of the season and shouldn't be rewarded just because he wasn't up long enough for his numbers to normalize. 

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But the games at the end of the season are clutchier and importanter than the ones at the beginning of the season.

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28 minutes ago, Casimir said:

But the games at the end of the season are clutchier and importanter than the ones at the beginning of the season.

Plus was done under the glare of the intense Big Apple media and with all the nightlife distractions of the City That Never Sleeps.

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7 hours ago, Yoda said:

Not saying he didn't deserve it, but this illustrates why he shouldn't get it. His hot streak came at the very end of the season and shouldn't be rewarded just because he wasn't up long enough for his numbers to normalize. 

I don't disagree

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9 hours ago, Walt said:

You don't think FIP, especially relative to ERA, tells you anything about a pitcher's performance?

the problem with FIP is that it counts HRs so heavily and the ball is juiced now, so the basis line for FIP has to be re-evaluated wrt comparing power pitchers to GB pitchers. The other thing in JVs favor is that he is quite a bit ahead of the other guys in adjusted ERA methods - ERC/WPA etc.

 

All that said, I will not be more surprised that he doesn't get it than that Trammell is not in the HOF,  but I will similarly disappointed in the intelligence of the voters.

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FWIW Keith Law said that all BWAA awards were due by Monday morning and he filed his NL ROY vote on Saturday.  So there's a chance that quite a few voters voted before Verlander's last start which probably will hurt his case.  Without that start he doesn't finish 1st in a number of categories that he ended up winning.  

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23 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

FWIW Keith Law said that all BWAA awards were due by Monday morning and he filed his NL ROY vote on Saturday.  So there's a chance that quite a few voters voted before Verlander's last start which probably will hurt his case.  Without that start he doesn't finish 1st in a number of categories that he ended up winning.  

but Keith Law is an idiot. How do you not wait for the last starts of the season when the award is so competitive? It can only be because Law didn't see it as competitive, which ipso facto, is because he is an idiot.

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NL ROY will probably be unanimous, so I doubt anything that happened on the final couple days would matter if you had that vote.

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5 hours ago, Shelton said:

NL ROY will probably be unanimous, so I doubt anything that happened on the final couple days would matter if you had that vote.

Might it be the guy with 7.5 fWAR?

Damn, I didn't realize he's been that good.

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5 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Might it be the guy with 7.5 fWAR?

Damn, I didn't realize he's been that good.

I didn't either.  That's a top five all-time rookie season.  

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Porcello beat up tonight by the Indians. Sometimes it's too bad the award votes go in before the playoffs....

Why?  The postseason should have no bearing on a regular season award.

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8 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Why?  The postseason should have no bearing on a regular season award.

"'cause we want our guy to win and their guy picked the playoff to mess up" isn't enough? :P

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I see Britton's name being mentioned, but what about Miller?  Lower WHIP, lower FIP, more than double the SO/BB ratio.  123 SOs to 9 BBs?  That's just blankity blank absurd.

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I see Britton's name being mentioned, but what about Miller?  Lower WHIP, lower FIP, more than double the SO/BB ratio.  123 SOs to 9 BBs?  That's just blankity blank absurd.

Neither should sniff first place votes.

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