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Tonight's start by Porcello went well I'd say. The Red Sox won but Porcello got a no-decision and it damaged his stats a bit.

Porcello's ERA is up to 3.15. His WHIP is 1.01.

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10 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Tonight's start by Porcello went well I'd say. The Red Sox won but Porcello got a no-decision and it damaged his stats a bit.

Porcello's ERA is up to 3.15. His WHIP is 1.01.

His win total is gaudy and who knows if the voters might be at a point where there is a little old school numbers nostalgia but JV has to have a good shot at ending up in front of RP in the voting with more K's, a better ERA, ERC (JV is #1 overall here),  higher WAR and more IP (assuming he goes 3+ tomorrow.). It really is looking like one more strong outing tomorrow and JV could end up the statistical favorite.

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And JV is absolutely aware of this. Not that it'll matter to him. Dude's fighting for a playoff spot. But expect that average fastball to be a tick higher tomorrow. 

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I can't think of any pitcher I'd rather have for one must-win game over Verlander. Not Kershaw, not Scherzer, not Kluber.

Sent from my SM-G900W8 using Tapatalk

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On 9/28/2016 at 1:51 PM, Yoda said:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Betts
CY: Porcello
ROY: Sanchez
Manager: Francona
Most Improved: Porcello

NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Bryant
CY: Scherzer
ROY: Seager
Manager: Roberts
Most Improved: Murphy

I agree except for the following:

AL ROY: Fulmer. He ground it out for the whole season. The other guy came up in August and is finishing really poorly, too: in his last nine games going into tonight, he's slashing .094/.189/.219 for a wRC+ of 7. (You're seeing it right: that's a seven.)  I think that will cost the other guy any real chance to take the ROY award.

NL Cy: Jon Lester or Kyle Hendricks. This will depend on whether Lester can dominate for his 20th win tonight, or whether Hendricks lowers his already MLB-leading 1.99 ERA, but it's going to be one of these two. Plus, come on: Cubs.

NL Most Improved: Jean Segura. He has completely transformed at the plate from candidate for AAAA lifer to an all-around All-Star. Murphy is better than last year, for sure, but Segura should get this one going away.

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16 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Tonight's start by Porcello went well I'd say. The Red Sox won but Porcello got a no-decision and it damaged his stats a bit.

Porcello's ERA is up to 3.15. His WHIP is 1.01.

I really, really doubt that more writers who vote for the AL Cy Young award will vote for an 18-9 guy or a 16-8 guy over a 22-4 guy on a division winner. And that goes double considering the 22-4 guy has not won a Cy yet, and the other two have. A lot of writers like the idea of spreading these things around.

Tell you this, though: if by some stretch either Kluber or Verlander do win the Cy Young Award, that means sabermetrics will have finally turned a corner with a critical mass of writers.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

I really, really doubt that more writers who vote for the AL Cy Young award will vote for an 18-9 guy or a 16-8 guy over a 22-4 guy on a division winner. And that goes double considering the 22-4 guy has not won a Cy yet, and the other two have. A lot of writers like the idea of spreading these things around.

Tell you this, though: if by some stretch either Kluber or Verlander do win the Cy Young Award, that means sabermetrics will have finally turned a corner with a critical mass of writers.

Did you miss King Felix taking a CY with13 wins on a 4th place team?

It may not happen again but it's not  particularly unlikely they will ignore wins again.

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I saw Dickey get it over Kershaw a couple years later, too. What do I know, but 22-4 for Boston looks like a lock to me.

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47 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I saw Dickey get it over Kershaw a couple years later, too. What do I know, but 22-4 for Boston looks like a lock to me.

I'm not going to put any money on the vote,  but JV compares favorably to Porcello by every measurable a voter looks at so I won't be surprised either way.

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I saw Dickey get it over Kershaw a couple years later, too. What do I know, but 22-4 for Boston looks like a lock to me.

Dicky and kershaw were basically neck and neck in each category that year. Kershaw had a better era by .2, and dickey had the 20+ wins.

That's not extremely dissimilar to this year, except verlander has the better K numbers. So it depends on how voters view Ks, I guess.

I think it's easier to think that a 2.5 era is about the same as a 2.7 era, considering how era is so dependent on team defense.

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The wins will tip it to Porcello like it did with Dickey a few years ago even though Justin's body of work to me is better

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Twitter handle @Jar5150 compiles a strong case for Verlander:

Ct4DwPaXgAAc22f.jpg

I would have liked to see FIP in there too.

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33 minutes ago, Walt said:

I would have liked to see FIP in there too.

In terms of the Cy Young, I don't think it's all that valuable. 

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In terms of the Cy Young, I don't think it's all that valuable. 

Well, I appreciate your thoughts Yoda, but I'd still would have liked to see it. ☺️

TBH, bWAR and fWAR disparity gets you to the same place.

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7 minutes ago, Walt said:

Well, I appreciate your thoughts Yoda, but I'd still would have liked to see it. ☺️

TBH, bWAR and fWAR disparity gets you to the same place.

Sounds like Walt has a vote and he's doing some research.  Or requesting that research be done for him.  Which, hey, if it works, great.

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9 minutes ago, Walt said:

Well, I appreciate your thoughts Yoda, but I'd still would have liked to see it.

TBH, bWAR and fWAR disparity gets you to the same place.

I get that, and it's certainly more useful that W/L. Just not something that tells me who the best pitcher is. 

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I get that, and it's certainly more useful that W/L. Just not something that tells me who the best pitcher is. 

You don't think FIP, especially relative to ERA, tells you anything about a pitcher's performance?

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I posted this in one of the game threads, but I think the Tiger's inability to get to Kluber in his last start (bases loaded 1 out - 3rd inning I think), very well could have handed Kluber the Cy Young -- or conversely cost Verlander the award. 

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On 9/28/2016 at 2:51 PM, Yoda said:

Playoffs don't count so I figure we should do this before they start. 

I've never bought the "ease coast bias" nonsense, but this year there are two categories in the AL where it may very well come into play, ROY and MVP. 

ROY - there's no doubt Fulmer "deserves" it. He's been up here all year, and while he hasn't had a spectacular 2nd half, he still leads all AL starters in ERA and is a huge reason the Tigers are in the playoff race. However, Gary Sanchez has been spectacular, but for only a month and a half. Yet he's getting a TON of media attention, much of which I don't believe he would be getting if he played for a team like the Rays or Twins. If Sanchez wins, will be be because it happened in the final 1.5 months versus the first 1.5 months (look how Story disappeared, of course he's hurt), or will it be because he plays for the Yankees and gets a ton of media coverage? 

MVP - No question, Trout is the leagues best player, and has had the league's best season. However, Betts gets way more media coverage. If Betts wins, will it be because his team is in the playoffs? Or will it be because he's getting way more media coverage?

There isn't a lot of evidence of "east coast bias", but they could potentially make a case for it this year. Of course, if Fulmer and Trout win, it shatters the argument. 

Anyhow, fire away. 

Story got attention at the beginning like Sanchez got at the end. Sanchez has deserved the talk IMO. That said, Fulmer is your ROY easily still IMO. 

Did Betts get more coverage? I agree it should be Trout,but being in the postseason does often matter it seems. 

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11 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Twitter handle @Jar5150 compiles a strong case for Verlander:

Ct4DwPaXgAAc22f.jpg

That's a pretty chart, but frankly should include Tanaka and Hamels too, in my opinion.  

Verlander, Tanaka, and Sale all on teams that missed the play-offs.  That's going to be a mark against them and could cost them, particularly with such a tight group of 8 legit choices. 

 

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