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Yoda

Award Predictions

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Playoffs don't count so I figure we should do this before they start. 

I've never bought the "ease coast bias" nonsense, but this year there are two categories in the AL where it may very well come into play, ROY and MVP. 

ROY - there's no doubt Fulmer "deserves" it. He's been up here all year, and while he hasn't had a spectacular 2nd half, he still leads all AL starters in ERA and is a huge reason the Tigers are in the playoff race. However, Gary Sanchez has been spectacular, but for only a month and a half. Yet he's getting a TON of media attention, much of which I don't believe he would be getting if he played for a team like the Rays or Twins. If Sanchez wins, will be be because it happened in the final 1.5 months versus the first 1.5 months (look how Story disappeared, of course he's hurt), or will it be because he plays for the Yankees and gets a ton of media coverage? 

MVP - No question, Trout is the leagues best player, and has had the league's best season. However, Betts gets way more media coverage. If Betts wins, will it be because his team is in the playoffs? Or will it be because he's getting way more media coverage?

There isn't a lot of evidence of "east coast bias", but they could potentially make a case for it this year. Of course, if Fulmer and Trout win, it shatters the argument. 

Anyhow, fire away. 

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AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Betts
CY: Porcello
ROY: Sanchez
Manager: Francona
Most Improved: Porcello

NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Bryant
CY: Scherzer
ROY: Seager
Manager: Roberts
Most Improved: Murphy

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I don't think Sanchez is legitimately going to win the AL ROY, despite the chatter.  The MLB season is a grind, and the guy has been up for 45 days. I think the voters will pay heed to this.

On the other side, Fulmer could really help his cause by pitching 6 1/3 tonight and locking up the ERA title. Winning the ERA title would be quite the achievement and certainly worth of the ROY award.

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I would have mixed emotions if Scherzer wins the CY. I would be happy for him because I liked Max, but at the same time I would be kind of bummed because we had him and chose not to keep him.

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7 minutes ago, rhino said:

I would have mixed emotions if Scherzer wins the CY. I would be happy for him because I liked Max, but at the same time I would be kind of bummed because we had him and chose not to keep him.

That aggravates me that he left because it wasn't money.  It was Ilitch's ego. That ego is good when it comes to not being afraid to acquire talent but it hurts in situations like this.  I also think that's why DD is not here.  

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15 minutes ago, rhino said:

I would have mixed emotions if Scherzer wins the CY. I would be happy for him because I liked Max, but at the same time I would be kind of bummed because we had him and chose not to keep him.

They offered him a more than fair deal.  He just bet on himself that final year and won.  That is how I will always remember that deal.

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11 minutes ago, Oblong said:

That aggravates me that he left because it wasn't money.  It was Ilitch's ego. That ego is good when it comes to not being afraid to acquire talent but it hurts in situations like this.  I also think that's why DD is not here.  

What do you mean about his Ego?  Because he didn't accept the offer the year before, and then just said "we're done with you then"?

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Yes.  Ilitch was offended that Scherzer didn't accept that offer and once you **** off Mike Ilitch that's it. You are done. That's why he had them issue that strange press release before the season.  In retrospect with DD I wouldn't be shocked if Dave, with no contract the following year and no discussions, made a few inquiries, Ilitch found out and let him go after the deadline.  

 

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I have no idea about AL Cy young. Porcello and verlander have similar ERAs. But verlander has many more Ks, and Ks count. He's going to lead the league in Ks. Porcello has the edge in wins, and wins still matter, especially when you put a big number up there like porcello has. So you've got two guys with similar ERA and IP. One has a big lead in Ks. The other has a big lead in wins.

Kluber is also there with a very close ERA, and K numbers a bit behind verlander but well ahead of porcello.

I think it's a race between those three. I don't think as of now there are many others that would get a big share of first place votes.

I think fulmer for ROY is close to a lock. I think it would be an absolute lock if he can win the ERA title.

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Scherzer's contract is ridiculous, and could hamstring a team from adding players later when it becomes an albatross (see Greinke, Z.)  He was a bit disingenuous, too, claiming that winning was critical to him, when we was leaving a team that had made 3 consecutive playoff appearances.

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If Verlander does end up pitching one more game he has a chance to lead AL pitchers in both WARs, IP, Ks, ERA, BAA and WHIP.  Basically everything but wins and losses.  But with that said even if he does that Porcello will still be right there with him in most of those categories, has the gaudy win/loss record and pitches in the tougher park so I'm going to go with him for the Cy.

Five years ago I would've picked Betts for the MVP because of the team record but I think times have changed even since then so I'm going with Trout.

I think Fulmer basically etched his name for the ROY in his last start.

 

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Wow, that would be amazing if Porcello won the Cy Young. That contract looked to be a disaster at first.

 

EDIT: Though I am a homer and think JV should win it.

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Scherzer's contract is bad only for the fact of how they stretched it double, and will be paying him for the same amount of years while he isn't playing.  Sure it might look better if the O's and Nat's finally come to some MASN agreement and a big cash infusion hits the Nats, but still it could possibly hurt them signing Harper if he ever wanted to stay with them.

The other name people keep forgetting is Britton, he's been getting a lot of top billing in the Cy Young too since no one has been running away with it this year.

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I'm not forgetting Britton, I'm waiting for him to throw another 150 innings to see if his work is sustainable. 

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pretty sure that Fulmer just lost his chance to win ROY.  No chance he wins the ERA title at this point.  I don't think 11 wins gets it done this season.

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I do think Gary Sanchez has a legitimate chance to win. He's got 20 home runs. Those are rookie of the year caliber numbers and he did it in a third of a season.

I think fulmer will win, but it will be close.

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I think Sanchez could win based on voters remembering what's happened lately.  Sanchez has exploded onto the national scene, whereas Fulmer has faded, probably due to fatigue.  Granted, his "fade" still places him among the better pitchers in the league, but he's not nearly as hot as he was when he came up.

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I think ROY will depend a lot on how much time and effort the voters put into examining the situation.  On the surface, it's easy to say Sanchez..

Sanchez is putting up monster numbers in a very short period of time.  Fulmer was great initially, but he faded over time so the league obviously figured him out.  Meanwhile Sanchez just keeps pounding the ball.

Of course, a closer look shows that even though Fulmer had faded, he's still fantastic... among the league leaders in pitching, and he's done it for most of the year.  It's true that he's dropped a bit lately, but that's because he's been here long enough to have dropped as more and more film study has been done on him.  

It's likely (though not certain) that Sanchez's numbers would fade over a full year as well.  Even since his peak in late August over over .400, he's avg has slowly dropped to "only" .311.  His OPS, which peaked at 1.367 is now down to "only" 1.077.  Now those are still GREAT numbers for a hitter... but it does show that he's been on a steady decline since the end of August... exactly what one would predict as more film study is available on the guy and as fatigue of a long season sets in.

Okay fine... he's slowing down, but his numbers are STILL fantastic, especially for a rookie!

I don't disagree, but I'll counter with two points: 1.) Given the clear sign of a steady decline of the past month, what could one reasonably expect to see over a full year?  2.) If you knock Fulmer for not being able to keep up his "greatness" earlier in the year, perhaps you could recheck is numbers and realize that even a "lesser than" Fulmer is still right up there with the Cy Young candidates.  To put it another way, even though Fulmer's slowing down, his numbers are STILL fantastic, especially for a rookie.

 

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13 hours ago, Tenacious D said:

pretty sure that Fulmer just lost his chance to win ROY.  No chance he wins the ERA title at this point.  I don't think 11 wins gets it done this season.

He can if there's a game 163... 

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27 minutes ago, Yoda said:

He can if there's a game 163... 

Or if today's game gets PPD and they need to play it Monday.  He could pitch games 3 and 4 of this series.

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