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Tenacious D

Initial '16/'17 Offseason Thoughts

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Just now, Walt said:

I don't disagree, but I also don't think that this negates them having a good go at it is our best chance at a WS run.

Maybe next season when V-mart gets his actual 60mph bionic legs is a better chance.

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11 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Maybe next season when V-mart gets his actual 60mph bionic legs is a better chance.

60 mph legs, with 6 mph knees.

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Just now, Walt said:

60 mph legs, with 6 mph knees.

He's this talent cycle's Carlos Guillen

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At any rate, I think the team is well positioned for 2017 and won't have much to do this offseason assuming there are no orders to cut salary.

CY candidate verlander and ERA title contender fulmer will return. Zimmermann will likely return to form as a #2/#3 caliber starter. Norris and Boyd will be just fine as the fourth and fifth starters. If anyone gets hurt during the spring or looks bad, pelfrey or Sanchez can step in. If everything looks good, one of those guys could probably be traded for a semi-useful piece.

The entire lineup will return, and should be an improvement over this year if upton bounces back and Maybin and castellanos stop injuring their hands.

Moya/Collins/machado on the bench will be better than aviles. I expect them to keep salty.

We will have JaCoby and the outfielders pushing for a promotion. Jimenez should be a potential bullpen piece.

Cleveland will be good again of course, but I don't foresee going 1-11 in our first 12 games head to head, so another race between the Tigers and the Indians seems likely.

The white sox could be an interesting team to worry about. They seem to have enough talent to be a .500 team, and by plugging some of their black holes with moderately good players they could be relevant. I think KC is done for, and Minnesota is still a couple years away.

This just doesn't appear to be a very interesting offseason, and that's ok. I think I prefer that to the offseason a like last year where we had a pressing need to address multiple important positions. The offseason heading into 2018 could be a very different story depending on what happens with upton, JD, Maybin, and Krod all having the potential to be out, and castellanos and Iglesias getting to the point where they will need to be paid, and kinsler and Victor nearing the ends of their deals and fighting against age.

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42 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Michael Fulmer might well be elite or very good.  I just feel like its a big ask for them to get us through the playoffs in their first merry go round.

It might be a big ask.  But it isn't any bigger than asking them all to stay healthy and perform to expectations for the entirety of 2017. 

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52 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Bonderman, Robertson weren't rookies and were fairly battle tested.

And yet they still failed to stay healthy and productive.  Pitchers are delicate creatures.  My point is when you have a group of pitchers healthy and performing well, you need to take advantage of it now, because it might not last.  

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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

And yet they still failed to stay healthy and productive.  Pitchers are delicate creatures.  My point is when you have a group of pitchers healthy and performing well, you need to take advantage of it now, because it might not last.  

ok. My point is still fairly innocent.  That we just shouldn't expect it yet.

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4 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

ok. My point is still fairly innocent.  That we just shouldn't expect it yet.

I don't know that we should expect it.  I just don't think their chances will be any better next year.  

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Always going for it, all the way everyday, and with max effort, would have prevented the acquisition of these talented arms in the first place. 

We might of course also have kept Max Scherzer save for the reasons we did not.

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5 minutes ago, ballmich said:

I don't ever expect to make a WS run.  I demand it. 

I would say that any team with a 200 million payroll should make a run.  

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

I guess I don't understand why 2005 verlander is being mentioned. He was a minor leaguer that year and made only a handful of spot starts. He started the year in Lakeland and moved up to Erie, but didn't even pitch in AAA.

As far as I know, we aren't going to be counting on Tyler Alexander or Austin kubitza.

He made a strained analogy and is now trying to defend it.  Nothing more, nothing less.

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5 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Always going for it, all the way everyday, and with max effort, would have prevented the acquisition of these talented arms in the first place. 

We might of course also have kept Max Scherzer save for the reasons we did not.

Last year, the team was not performing well at the deadline and not showing any signs of getting better. The fact that they had to sell made the season a failure, but Dombrowski was able to turn it into a positive for the future.   

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4 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Last year, the team was not performing well at the deadline and not showing any signs of getting better. The fact that they had to sell made the season a failure, but Dombrowski was able to turn it into a positive for the future.   

I thought it was the right move. 

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1 minute ago, ROMAD1 said:

I thought it was the right move. 

It was the right move, but the season was still a failure.  

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12 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

He made a strained analogy and is now trying to defend it.  Nothing more, nothing less.

2006 Verlander was the best rookie or near SP in a playoff run we had in the last three talent cycles.  I'd define these talent cycles as 2006-2009, 2010-2014 and 2015-2016

In 2005, Justin Verlander wasn't ready to be that contributor.  That's all.  That is all.  There is no more. 

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It is a strained analogy.

Your mom is a strained analogy

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2006 Verlander was the best rookie or near SP in a playoff run we had in the last three talent cycles.  I'd define these talent cycles as 2006-2009, 2010-2014 and 2015-2016

In 2005, Justin Verlander wasn't ready to be that contributor.  That's all.  That is all.  There is no more. 

In 2005 verlander wasn't even remotely considered part of the rotation.

In his rookie year of 2006, he was very good and won rookie of the year, much like our new kid fulmer.

In 2006, verlander pitched 21.2 postseason innings, giving up 17 runs and 14 earned runs. He had 23 strikeouts and 10 walks. He gave up a combined 36 walks+hits. He gave up 5 home runs. In short, verlander wasn't even that good in the postseason.

He was good in the regular season, that's for sure. Fulmer has been, too.

Bonderman and Robertson were more experienced than Norris and Boyd of course, but neither had pitched all that well until 2006. Norris and Boyd have put up numbers that are comparable to those guys in 2006.

Only Rogers had experience pitching in the postseason. I really don't think it matters.

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28 minutes ago, Shelton said:

In 2005 verlander wasn't even remotely considered part of the rotation.

In his rookie year of 2006, he was very good and won rookie of the year, much like our new kid fulmer.

In 2006, verlander pitched 21.2 postseason innings, giving up 17 runs and 14 earned runs. He had 23 strikeouts and 10 walks. He gave up a combined 36 walks+hits. He gave up 5 home runs. In short, verlander wasn't even that good in the postseason.

He was good in the regular season, that's for sure. Fulmer has been, too.

Bonderman and Robertson were more experienced than Norris and Boyd of course, but neither had pitched all that well until 2006. Norris and Boyd have put up numbers that are comparable to those guys in 2006.

Only Rogers had experience pitching in the postseason. I really don't think it matters.

 

Quote

I think the playoff battle experience they get this season...can only help to improve Boyd, Fulmer, Norris.   I think that group needs to be established before I'd think we make a serious WS run.  

maybe we do make a WS run THIS year.  I'm not expecting it though. 

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Teams essentially have a 1 in 8 chance to win the World's Series once they get past the wild card game.

I wouldn't ever expect to make a WS run.

I did in 2014 and 2015

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