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Deleterious

2016-17 Prediction thread

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I just said it was his ceiling. Hey, is not my fault if he has failed to live up to his potential.

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Eastern Conference: 
1-CLE - 58 wins
2-BOS - 54 wins
3-TOR - 52 wins
4-IND - 49 wins
5-DET - 48 wins
6-ATL - 45 wins
7-WAS - 43 wins
8-MIA (if Bosh plays, if not then put NYK here) - 41 wins

Playoffs - Pistons lose 1st round in 6.

CLE over BOS in the ECF

GS wins it all. Really hope this isn't true, but outside of injury I can't see it going any other way.

Drummond makes the All Star Game but no other Pistons do.

KCP Shoots 33-35% from 3

Drummond shoots 38-40% from FT

SJ remains under 40% from the field and under 33% from 3 but contributes well in other categories when he's on the floor.

Pistons make a minor trade during the season. Maybe something with Baynes.

Ish outplays Reggie for about a month stretch at some point combined with SVG allowing Ish to finish the 4th quarter of some games, prompting some "start Ish" or "trade Reggie" threads on this message board.

We spend a lot of time on the message board debating SVG's rotation decisions due to the interchangeability of so many of our players now.

 

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I didn't have them making much noise this year anyway, but that is a huge blow to them. They were already going to struggle to find spacing and now they might be the worst outside shooting team in the league. Just pack the paint on defense and don't turn the ball over for them to get in transition.

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I don't see the Pistons winning 48 games if everything B

On 9/16/2016 at 1:09 PM, Betrayer said:

Eastern Conference: 
1-CLE - 58 wins
2-BOS - 54 wins
3-TOR - 52 wins
4-IND - 49 wins
5-DET - 48 wins
6-ATL - 45 wins
7-WAS - 43 wins
8-MIA (if Bosh plays, if not then put NYK here) - 41 wins

Playoffs - Pistons lose 1st round in 6.

CLE over BOS in the ECF

GS wins it all. Really hope this isn't true, but outside of injury I can't see it going any other way.

Drummond makes the All Star Game but no other Pistons do.

KCP Shoots 33-35% from 3

Drummond shoots 38-40% from FT

SJ remains under 40% from the field and under 33% from 3 but contributes well in other categories when he's on the floor.

Pistons make a minor trade during the season. Maybe something with Baynes.

Ish outplays Reggie for about a month stretch at some point combined with SVG allowing Ish to finish the 4th quarter of some games, prompting some "start Ish" or "trade Reggie" threads on this message board.

We spend a lot of time on the message board debating SVG's rotation decisions due to the interchangeability of so many of our players now.

 

I don't see the Pistons winning 48 games if Ish outplays Reggie, SJ doesn't take a step forward, KCP doesn't improve from deep and Drummond doesn't improve the line.  

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On 9/24/2016 at 8:02 AM, RandyMarsh said:

I don't see the Pistons winning 48 games if everything B

I don't see the Pistons winning 48 games if Ish outplays Reggie, SJ doesn't take a step forward, KCP doesn't improve from deep and Drummond doesn't improve the line.  

First, let's clarify what I said:
1) I said Ish would outplay Reggie for a month stretch at some point during the season, not that he would outplay Reggie period.
2) I said that KCP would shoot 33-35% from 3 point range. He shot .309 last season, so that's actually a pretty huge improvement from 3 range.
3) I said that SJ would remain under 40%/33% from FG/3PT, but contribute well in other categories. He shot .375/.307 last year, so there's still room from some improvement there as well.
4) I said that Drummond would shoot between 38%-40% from FT.  He shot .355 last year, so an improvement of 3%-5%.

As you can see I've predicted improvements from all of these players and I've also predicted that Ish will play well off the bench, including helping us when Reggie goes through a rough stretch this year as players often do.

They won 44 last year with the worst bench in the league. These incremental improvements, the significant additions to the bench, and now having Harris from the start of the season should easily get us the additional 4 games.

If you're predicting more player improvement from the starters than this, then you're probably predicting the Pistons to be in the 50 win range. I'm fine with that, but I like to be conservative with my predictions so I can be pleasantly surprised rather than the disappointment that comes with overshooting the mark.

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The Pistons can't shoot.  Ish Smith doesn't help that, he makes it worse.  I don't see that much improvement over last year's record with Reggie out for at least two months and no real improvement in their outside shooting.

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Watching the NBA TV Pistons preview with Grant Hill and Isiah Thomas. Both of them predicted the Pistons to be under 45.5 wins this year.

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If their win total is in the low 40s, GM Stan screwed coach Stan.

That would mean there was zero internal improvement from last year.  So that means they are a team up against the luxury tax that wins 40ish games and is no longer improving.  That would be very troubling.  I thought the entire point of this roster was that they are young with a lot of room to grow and improve.

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

If their win total is in the low 40s, GM Stan screwed coach Stan.

That would mean there was zero internal improvement from last year.  So that means they are a team up against the luxury tax that wins 40ish games and is no longer improving.  That would be very troubling.  I thought the entire point of this roster was that they are young with a lot of room to grow and improve.

I'm sorry, I don't see very much remaining improvement potential on this roster. Drummond is a mature player at this point. Stanley has remaining upside. The rest of these guys are what they are/are going to be.

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I predicted 48 wins before the Reggie injury. But with him out for a month I could easily see that costing them 3 games and 45 win finish as a result.

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And here is my logic behind that.

I bet the bench lost them at least 4 games last year.  It might not even be 4 games you can point to directly and blame the bench for the loss.  It could be a few that the starters were so tired from playing so many minutes, we couldn't get the W.   The new guys + SJ improving  fix that, plus they win one extra game.  So the bench is +5 wins this year.

I think the starting unit is young enough to still be improving.  I think that improvement + having Harris for 50+ games instead of Illyasova + SVG expanding the offense, can net them 5 more wins. 

+10 wins added to 44 last year is 54.  Adjust down a bit for the Jackson injury and 50-52 is what I have.

 

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On 10/15/2016 at 11:13 AM, Gehringer_2 said:

I'm sorry, I don't see very much remaining improvement potential on this roster. Drummond is a mature player at this point. Stanley has remaining upside. The rest of these guys are what they are/are going to be.

These seems ridiculous to me, considering the age of the core of this roster.  Last year was a baseline, and they made the playoffs, there is plenty of room for improvement for Drummond, KCP, Reggie, Stanley, and Ellenson (of course).  This roster is still a year or two away from maturation. 

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It's odd to me that a team who made the playoffs last year, with the worst bench in the NBA, is now considered a team that can't improve, even though the starters have been together for 1 season, have tons of room for improvement, and have a much deeper bench.

True, I am overly optimistic with my sports, but everyone else is incredibly pessimistic when it comes to Detroit sports. 

This is clearly a better team than last season, yet the board consensus is that they won't improve?  What is happening?

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On 8/29/2016 at 1:47 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Stanley Johnson will continue to be ineffective.

You mean he would be ineffective for the first time. 

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12 minutes ago, T&P_Fan said:

It's odd to me that a team who made the playoffs last year, with the worst bench in the NBA, is now considered a team that can't improve, even though the starters have been together for 1 season, have tons of room for improvement, and have a much deeper bench.

True, I am overly optimistic with my sports, but everyone else is incredibly pessimistic when it comes to Detroit sports. 

This is clearly a better team than last season, yet the board consensus is that they won't improve?  What is happening?

I don't watch a ton of games, and my opinion is we can start to get excited with KCP shoots 3s well and AD shoots FTs well.

That said I think SVG + young, deep roster = almost certain improvement. Maybe it doesn't translate to more wins (I do feel they overachieved somewhat last year), but I'm not sure who performs *worse* than last year. So I definitely agree with you on this one.

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I think Ish and Leuer are going to be huge additions for a team that was starving for depth last season.  I like Reggie for what he is but I bet that they will look like more of a cohesive unit with Ish running the point.  The problems will be in crunch time where Reggie excelled.

It's hard to project a young team like this because development isn't always linear so some of the young guys could take a step back before they take a leap forward.  However, this is one of the deepest rosters in the east and most of these guys have already played together so there shouldn't be a lot of chemistry issues as opposed to a lot of the teams in the east so I'd be suprised if they took a step back this season, very surprised.  50 wins might be too ambitious but I'd say anywhere between 44-48 wins is realistic give or take a couple of wins and I'd lean towards them eclipsing 48 than not reaching 44.  If Reggie is out for much longer than currently expected, that could be trouble.  They are going to need him in the long run.

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8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

And here is my logic behind that.

I bet the bench lost them at least 4 games last year.  It might not even be 4 games you can point to directly and blame the bench for the loss.  It could be a few that the starters were so tired from playing so many minutes, we couldn't get the W.   The new guys + SJ improving  fix that, plus they win one extra game.  So the bench is +5 wins this year.

I think the starting unit is young enough to still be improving.  I think that improvement + having Harris for 50+ games instead of Illyasova + SVG expanding the offense, can net them 5 more wins. 

+10 wins added to 44 last year is 54.  Adjust down a bit for the Jackson injury and 50-52 is what I have.

 

who are you and what have you done with Del?

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26 minutes ago, DaBishop said:

who are you and what have you done with Del?

I've always been honest with my evaluations.  When the organization gives you 7 or 8 years of **** basketball, those are generally going to be negative.

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11 hours ago, Deleterious said:

And here is my logic behind that.

I bet the bench lost them at least 4 games last year.  It might not even be 4 games you can point to directly and blame the bench for the loss.  It could be a few that the starters were so tired from playing so many minutes, we couldn't get the W.   The new guys + SJ improving  fix that, plus they win one extra game.  So the bench is +5 wins this year.

I think the starting unit is young enough to still be improving.  I think that improvement + having Harris for 50+ games instead of Illyasova + SVG expanding the offense, can net them 5 more wins. 

+10 wins added to 44 last year is 54.  Adjust down a bit for the Jackson injury and 50-52 is what I have.

 

This is just about exactly what I would say

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