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Shelton

Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds Tracker

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Seattle and Cleveland both with three game losing streaks. Toronto and Boston both with 2 game losing streaks.

Coupled with the Tigers win streak, that's made a huge difference.

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On Monday morning when I started this thread, our chances of winning the division were about 1/25. On Tuesday morning, after another Cleveland win, our chances has dropped to 1/30.

But six favorable "coin flips" in a row have us up to a 1/8 chance now over a matter of three days. There was roughly a 1/64 chance that we would three in a row and Cleveland would lose three in a row over three days.

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20 minutes ago, Shelton said:

On Monday morning when I started this thread, our chances of winning the division were about 1/25. On Tuesday morning, after another Cleveland win, our chances has dropped to 1/30.

But six favorable "coin flips" in a row have us up to a 1/8 chance now over a matter of three days. There was roughly a 1/64 chance that we would three in a row and Cleveland would lose three in a row over three days.

Don't dislocate your shoulder patting your back there....xD

Really, they key is for the Tigers to take care of what they can take care of.  Just win on the field.  If they can finish with a flurry, if Upton's redirection is sustainable (which I think it can be), if Zimmermann can return and pitch effectively, if Boyd and Norris can continue to provide quality starts, if the club can maintain health, they should be able to get a wild card.  

Castellanos could give them a nice shot in the arm upon his return, but given his injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he were a bit rusty at the plate.  If he can shake that off in time for the playoffs, they've got as much of a chance as anyone to win 3 playoff series.

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37 minutes ago, Shelton said:

On Monday morning when I started this thread, our chances of winning the division were about 1/25. On Tuesday morning, after another Cleveland win, our chances has dropped to 1/30.

But six favorable "coin flips" in a row have us up to a 1/8 chance now over a matter of three days. There was roughly a 1/64 chance that we would three in a row and Cleveland would lose three in a row over three days.

Obviously, we need to keep this thread going.  This is just what the team needed.  The right discussion thread at the right time.

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55 minutes ago, Shelton said:

On Monday morning when I started this thread, our chances of winning the division were about 1/25. On Tuesday morning, after another Cleveland win, our chances has dropped to 1/30.

But six favorable "coin flips" in a row have us up to a 1/8 chance now over a matter of three days. There was roughly a 1/64 chance that we would three in a row and Cleveland would lose three in a row over three days.

As much as I wasn't in favor of the 2nd wild card, it is definitely making things much more exciting.

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10 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

because as it stands Boyd and Fulmer are better starters than Pelfrey and Zimmerman?

I'd guess Greene's problem has been his at least part in his use pattern. Ausmus has been all over the map with him recently - and it got really erratic leading to the 3 run game, 8 days off, 6 appearances in 8 days, 6 off, 4 in 3 days, 6 off again. And this is a guy that really doesn't know how to be a reliever over a season yet.

We know Wilson has a problem but they are trying to get him through without a DL trip. Probably not gonna work but they have to try.

But I'm speaking specifically to the limits they want to do with Fulmer and I assume Boyd?  I agree they are better pitchers and all things equal I'd rather they stay in the rotation.

 

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20 minutes ago, rhino said:

As much as I wasn't in favor of the 2nd wild card, it is definitely making things much more exciting.

I actually like the 2nd WC the way it is now.  Knowing how baseball is going to do things (meaning they will keep divisions, probably will never go to 4 divisions, etc.) I think the current way is perfect within that context.  You don't reward a non division winner with an automatic trip to the ALDS.  Make the two WC teams play a sudden death.  If they burn their best pitcher, so be it.  You should have won the division then.  I know we've beaten this topic to death.   The method that makes the most sense and is the most logical is something they'd never do.  

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Don't dislocate your shoulder patting your back there....[emoji23]

Really, they key is for the Tigers to take care of what they can take care of.  Just win on the field.  If they can finish with a flurry, if Upton's redirection is sustainable (which I think it can be), if Zimmermann can return and pitch effectively, if Boyd and Norris can continue to provide quality starts, if the club can maintain health, they should be able to get a wild card.  

Castellanos could give them a nice shot in the arm upon his return, but given his injury, I wouldn't be surprised if he were a bit rusty at the plate.  If he can shake that off in time for the playoffs, they've got as much of a chance as anyone to win 3 playoff series.

I have always liked "I would pat you on the back, but your hand was there."

Anyway, clearly our recent fortunes are the result of this thread.

It was also useful as a reverse jinx by declaring the division race effectively over. We needed that to get the baseball gods to bless us with that 1/64 chance of cutting three games in three days.

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11 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I actually like the 2nd WC the way it is now.  Knowing how baseball is going to do things (meaning they will keep divisions, probably will never go to 4 divisions, etc.) I think the current way is perfect within that context.  You don't reward a non division winner with an automatic trip to the ALDS.  Make the two WC teams play a sudden death.  If they burn their best pitcher, so be it.  You should have won the division then.  I know we've beaten this topic to death.   The method that makes the most sense and is the most logical is something they'd never do.  

The one thing that bugs me about the current set up is that it doesn't take into consideration the chance that the first wild card is the truly second best team in the league by a material margin.  If a division comes down to a couple of teams with near or over 100 wins, and the next tier of playoff teams is hovering around 90, I'm not sure the current set up is appropriate.

Having said that, there is much, much more parity nowadays, so the chance of the above happening is probably slimmer than before.

But I think I'd prefer tweaking the system so that the bottom 2 records of the 5 teams square off in the play in game and the top 3 records move along to the divisional series.

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I have always liked "I would pat you on the back, but your hand was there."

Anyway, clearly our recent fortunes are the result of this thread.

It was also useful as a reverse jinx by declaring the division race effectively over. We needed that to get the baseball gods to bless us with that 1/64 chance of cutting three games in three days.

Whatever works at this point.

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27 minutes ago, Oblong said:

But I'm speaking specifically to the limits they want to do with Fulmer and I assume Boyd?  I agree they are better pitchers and all things equal I'd rather they stay in the rotation.

 

I don't think there is a work limit for Boyd. He is 25 and was at something like 130 two yr ago and 170 IP last season. He is at 138 now so it'll be another ~5 starts till he's even at last yrs workload.

Fulmer is a tough call. If they put Fulmer in the pen and then miss the playoffs by a game Z loses because he forces his way back unready again,  there will be heII to pay (or at least should be!)

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I actually like the 2nd WC the way it is now.  Knowing how baseball is going to do things (meaning they will keep divisions, probably will never go to 4 divisions, etc.) I think the current way is perfect within that context.  You don't reward a non division winner with an automatic trip to the ALDS.  Make the two WC teams play a sudden death.  If they burn their best pitcher, so be it.  You should have won the division then.  I know we've beaten this topic to death.   The method that makes the most sense and is the most logical is something they'd never do.  

I understand why they do it this way, and I agree it isn't likely to change any time soon.

But I don't think it's a very equitable way to slot the teams. Unbalanced divisions and unbalanced schedules are going to lead to poor seeding.

We saw it last year, I think, with the way the NL was set up.

They will probably never go back to no divisions. But seeding the qualifying teams by record rather than giving a substantial bonus to the division winners would be better.

If a division winner has the worst record among qualified teams, then you should have won more games than the wild card teams.

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But I'm speaking specifically to the limits they want to do with Fulmer and I assume Boyd?  I agree they are better pitchers and all things equal I'd rather they stay in the rotation.

 

The fact that this is a difficult decision to make sure makes me feel good about the rest of the season.

I think Norris's stuff could look good out of the pen down the stretch, assuming that anibal and Boyd and fulmer continue pitching well and Zimmermann comes back strong.

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10 minutes ago, Shelton said:

The fact that this is a difficult decision to make sure makes me feel good about the rest of the season.

I think Norris's stuff could look good out of the pen down the stretch, assuming that anibal and Boyd and fulmer continue pitching well and Zimmermann comes back strong.

I hate to be Debby Downer but I just don't have a good feeling on the odds of Zimmerman helping the rest of the way.

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There is definitely a level of uncertainty with him. He could still not be fully healthy and struggle in his rehab starts and struggle in the majors once he is cleared. Fortunately, we do appear to have some depth to cover for him if that is the case.

On the other hand, he is still a highly skilled pitcher. He's not a bum. He still has a high ceiling. And given how little he has actually pitched in the second half, and the fact that they are being very cautious with his rehab with no indication that he is being rushed back, he could easily be fully healthy by now and effectively going through the motions over these three starts to rebuild his stamina, like spring training.

Plenty of guys come back just fine from the DL.

I'm not going to worry too much about it.

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Listened to XM MLB channel this morning on the way in.  They were describing the Cleveland Indians starter's problems as a KC Royals surge story and didn't mention Detroit in that conversation. 

It would be very wonderful to upset that narrative.

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The 2nd wildcard rarely keeps more teams in playoff contention. The Tigers are currently 2 games out of the 2nd wildcard, but if there was only 1 wildcard they'd still only be 3 games out. The difference in the NL is only 1.5 games. I guess it does make the division races a bit more meaningful, which is why I'm fine with it.

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52 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

As long as Brad keeps communicating with the players the way he has been we will be alright.

haha, nice.  Communication is key. 

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27 minutes ago, Shelton said:

And given how little he has actually pitched in the second half,

that is also working against him. He hasn't thrown meaningful innings for 8 wks. He is almost to where he needs not just a rehab but Spring Training. And of course he has already set the precedent of not being realistic about his readiness. If he is down in Toledo with an ERA of 5 after 3 rehabs and demands to come off rehab again because he can go 80 pitches, he is going to put Avila and Ausmus in a really bad place.

So I guess I'll worry for both of us....:(

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that is also working against him. He hasn't thrown meaningful innings for 8 wks. He is almost to where he needs not just a rehab but Spring Training. And of course he has already set the precedent of not being realistic about his readiness. If he is down in Toledo with an ERA of 5 after 3 rehabs and demands to come off rehab again because he can go 80 pitches, he is going to put Avila and Ausmus in a really bad place.

So I guess I'll worry for both of us....[emoji20]

I think they have addressed the issue with his claims of readiness by planning for three rehab starts in advance.

I'm not concerned with him needing both a rehab and spring training. I think calling these starts "rehab" is a bit of a misnomer. The rehab has already occurred. He's gotten himself healthy enough to pitch in games. It's not like he hasn't thrown a pitch up until tonight. These starts are his spring training type starts. His sim games and bullpen sessions leading up to this are spring training esque.

Toledo's season is ending around the time of his final scheduled start, so it is what it is. If he doesn't appear ready to start a game in the majors, we have expanded rosters then anyway, so they can activate him and give him some mop up innings or something.

On the other hand, if he looks good, then great.

I don't think it's a certainty that he will simply be slotted right back into the rotation at the expense of a guy that is pitching well if he doesn't appear ready.

That said, with fulmer needing to be pushed back her and there, it wouldn't be the worst thing to go with a six man staff and give the non verlanders an extra day of rest either.

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Zimmerman supposedly feels a lot better this time around than last.  He has been working with a doctor he used with the Nats.

I think when he comes back, if Anibal still looks OK, they can have Zim start at least once in place of Fulmer to give him some rest.  Or at least go with a 6-man rotation once through where they also have an off day to give the rookies 7 days of rest.

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People say if you are like 2 games behind, but there's 4 other teams within 2 games, that your chances go down because chances are better one of those teams will get really hot and be hard to catch--you just don't know who.

I think the inverse is kind of true here.  We're within 3 games of Toronto, Boston, and Baltimore, and 4.5 of Cleveland.  If any one of those teams tanks and we play above-average ball the rest of the way, we're probably in.

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