Jump to content

Shelton

Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds Tracker

Recommended Posts

Is this Prospectus or Fangraphs?

I mentioned it in the OP but it was buried. I listed the fangraphs wild card odds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every single game last night that had relevance to the Tigers went the wrong way.

Tigers odds down to 23% overall,

3.2 division

19.7 wild card

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

It will just make the recovery that much sweeter.

I'm all for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Biggs 4 Pres

 

 

....and GM

 

 

....and Mgr

Does he have brightly colored polos?

Will nepotism be an issue after his son is drafted by the Tigers?

Who will be the first to call for Biggs to be fired after a game goes awry?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Shelton said:

I mentioned it in the OP but it was buried. I listed the fangraphs wild card odds.

Interesting... I only ask because Fangraphs' projections don't include catcher framing, an omission which probably helps the Tigers.  Additionally, PECOTA's memory is too large, which significantly dampens JD's projections, which hurts the Tigers.  I would guess FG is a bit too high on the Tigers, BP a bit too low, all else equal.

Confirmed, BP's odds are a tad more harsh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting... I only ask because Fangraphs' projections don't include catcher framing, an omission which probably helps the Tigers.  Additionally, PECOTA's memory is too large, which significantly dampens JD's projections, which hurts the Tigers.  I would guess FG is a bit too high on the Tigers, BP a bit too low, all else equal.

Confirmed, BP's odds are a tad more harsh.

I haven't looked too closely at the Tigers projections at either site lately. But I do think guys like verlander and fulmer, and even Boyd, might be a bit low at both sites.

Either way, I like both systems because they do take into account team quality.

Looking at fangraphs coin flip mode, the Tigers wild card odds are 14.6%, which makes sense because the Tigers are downgraded to a .500 talent team, and all the weak teams they have left are upgraded to .500.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Shelton said:

Every single game last night that had relevance to the Tigers went the wrong way.

Tigers odds down to 23% overall,

3.2 division

19.7 wild card

bcbPzkSCytDH2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Red Wings' playoff odds on March 17, 3 weeks before the end of the regular season, were 36.6%. Their odds were under 50% at a couple of points in the final week of the regular season. But they made it in! *

 

 

*where they were shellacked by Tampa 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a bad night.

Of course the Tigers won.

Cleveland Seattle and Houston lost.

Baltimore NYY and KC won.

Tigers odds are up to 27.1.

5.1 division

22 wild card

For the wild card, Os are 39% and mariners are 24%. They are projected to win 87.2 and 86.5 games.

The Tigers are projected to win 85.8.

These three teams are very much neck and neck right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the WC % does that take into account the division?  Meaning... Baltimore seems low to me but could that be because they also could win the division?

Not sure I worded that right.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Not a bad night.

Of course the Tigers won.

Cleveland Seattle and Houston lost.

Baltimore NYY and KC won.

Tigers odds are up to 27.1.

5.1 division

22 wild card

For the wild card, Os are 39% and mariners are 24%. They are projected to win 87.2 and 86.5 games.

The Tigers are projected to win 85.8.

These three teams are very much neck and neck right now.

Shelton, is it possible that the projections have taken into account the OE% deltas, which clearly widened after last night's games?

Also, can you please make a graph?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For the WC % does that take into account the division?  Meaning... Baltimore seems low to me but could that be because they also could win the division?

Not sure I worded that right.

 

Yeah Baltimore has an overall playoff chance of 45. 6 for division and 39 for wild card.

Baltimore's problem is that they aren't as good as the sox and jays, and they are 2 games back of each of them. Catching one of them is unlikely, let alone both of them.

But they are in pretty good position for one of the wild card spots. Their wild card odds are the highest among the non sox/jays teams.

Bal 39

Sea 24

Det 22

Hou 7

KC 4

NYY 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, diaspora04 said:

Shelton, is it possible that the projections have taken into account the OE% deltas, which clearly widened after last night's games?

Also, can you please make a graph?

image.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Baltimore put  ace Chris Tillman on the DL with a shoulder injury. He was their only decent starter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Shelton said:

image.png

They can't get another shade of orange on that graph?  Maybe its just me, but it'd be a bit more aesthetically pleasing by going with black for Baltimore and/or navy for Detroit. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another good night.

Division 7.6

Wild card 24.1

Overall 31.7

Wild card

Baltimore 42

Detroit 24

Seattle 21

Astros 9

Yankees 3

KC 2

Knocking two games off of cleveland's lead in two days opens up the door slightly. Our schedule is easy, but so is cleveland's for the most part. This weekend could make a difference, though. We've got four more against bad teams, and Cleveland has 4 against a mediocre Texas team.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me expand my thought from yesterday on why I think it is more likely they win the division than the WC.  It's the 7 games head to head and the fact that Cleveland is 11-1 against us. Among two decent teams I think water will find it's level.   I think it's easier to make up 5.5 games head to head with one opponent you face 7 more times than it would be to make up 3 games against 2 teams ahead of him, with another team chasing along with you.... 2 more if you want to include Houston and KC.   That's 5 or 6 teams chasing 2 spots.  How often are those teams playing each other?  The only WC contender the Tigers face is KC.

I am sure the % takes this all into account... I concede that.  This is just my gut feeling.  It would shock me more if they are a WC than if they win the division.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Let me expand my thought from yesterday on why I think it is more likely they win the division than the WC.  It's the 7 games head to head and the fact that Cleveland is 11-1 against us. Among two decent teams I think water will find it's level.   I think it's easier to make up 5.5 games head to head with one opponent you face 7 more times than it would be to make up 3 games against 2 teams ahead of him, with another team chasing along with you.... 2 more if you want to include Houston and KC.   That's 5 or 6 teams chasing 2 spots.  How often are those teams playing each other?  The only WC contender the Tigers face is KC.

I am sure the % takes this all into account... I concede that.  This is just my gut feeling.  It would shock me more if they are a WC than if they win the division.

I think your theory makes perfect sense.  I guess our lines in the sand are drawn differently.  At least in regards to the distance that exists at this point in time.

The two series against Cleveland are in mid September and the last week of the regular season.  That last series in Atlanta could be problematic from the standpoint of not having MartinezV in the starting lineup.  They could move Cabrera to 3B and use MartinezV at 1B if Castellanos is still rusty or whatever.  That's probably looking too far ahead into that detailed of a scenario, but whatever the scenario will be, it will be without a big cog in the starting lineup.  Now maybe it won't matter much because Atlanta is cruddy this season.  But I think optimally, the Tigers need to have a 1 game lead out of that last series with Cleveland.

As far as water finding its level, that might mean that what has happened has already happened (fluky as it may be), and the remaining 7 against Cleveland might only be 4-3 the rest of the way out.  I think at best, the Tigers go 5-2, picking up 3 games.  They'll need to pick up another 3 somewhere along the way.  Essentially that's about what they need for the wildcard as well.  But if they don't go 5-2, if they only go 4-3 or 3-4, that just adds to trying to gain ground while "scoreboard watching".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...