Jump to content

Shelton

Detroit Tigers Playoff Odds Tracker

Recommended Posts

The last couple weeks have been very bad for the Tigers playoff chances. On August 6, their odds to make the postseason in some form were 60%. Today, they are down to 27%.

The chance of winning the division is effectively over. Their odds to do so are a mere 4% today.

So at this point I think it is most effective to look at their odds in the wild card race relative to the other teams that are also in the chase. I'm looking at the fangraphs odds, which take into account the actual quality of the teams, as well as the schedules going forward. I'll list the teams and their percentage of winning the wild card. Keep in mind that the low odds for the jays and sox are due to the fact that one of them is likely to win the division, so you could combine those two into a single team.

Blue Jays 46

Red Sox 39

Orioles 31

Mariners 31

Tigers 23

Astros 11

Royals 4

Yankees 4

Games of interest today, with rooting interest in parentheses.

Nats at Orioles (nats)

Sox at rays (rays)

Yanks at Mariners (yanks)

Astros at pirates (pirates)

At the moment, it's pretty much a race with the O's and Mariners, and maybe the Astros. We have a good chance to make some noise this week with the twins and angels on the schedule. Probably no point in scoreboard watching the Indians, or at least getting bent out of shape if they have another late inning comeback.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No projections based on third order winning percentage on Tuesday nights in the central time zone against starting southpaws whose middle names are Randall?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its probably too early to look at team schedules from here on out.  But the AL East quagmire might help the Tigers out a bit as Toronto/Boston/Baltimore faces the other two 12/13 more times (Toronto has 6 vs each including 3 game series against each to end the season; Boston and Baltimore have 7 against each other).  Or it might not if the Tigers cannot get some consistency going forward.

It is now looking potentially awfully sucky to end in Atlanta and not be able to rely on MartinezV in the lineup at DH.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Baltimore seems to be the most vulnerable with their lack of starting pitching beyond a few guys. I think Toronto and Boston are very similar teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have seven games left with the Indians. I get it, the odds aren't great, but I'm not giving up on the division yet.

That said, the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox (as just mentioned) play each other quite a bit to finish up the year. If we can get on any sort of roll we could make up ground fast in the wild card.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On this date in 2006, we were 7.5 games up on the Twins... The Tigers and Indians have both been pretty streaky this season so I don't think it's an impossible task yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Yoda said:

On this date in 2006, we were 7.5 games up on the Twins... The Tigers and Indians have both been pretty streaky this season so I don't think it's an impossible task yet. 

Off the all-star break we went 15-6 and then 4-10.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Its probably too early to look at team schedules from here on out.  But the AL East quagmire might help the Tigers out a bit as Toronto/Boston/Baltimore faces the other two 12/13 more times (Toronto has 6 vs each including 3 game series against each to end the season; Boston and Baltimore have 7 against each other).  Or it might not if the Tigers cannot get some consistency going forward.

It is now looking potentially awfully sucky to end in Atlanta and not be able to rely on MartinezV in the lineup at DH.

The AL east cannibalism is nice but it's already baked into the Tigers odds. But it definitely makes the current games behind less dire than it would be otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On this date in 2006, we were 7.5 games up on the Twins... The Tigers and Indians have both been pretty streaky this season so I don't think it's an impossible task yet. 

Nope, not impossible. Just extremely unlikely. For every 2006 and 2009, there have been a lot more instances of teams with big leads that don't give them up.

Of course, you never know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Royals chances appear to be much higher than 4%.

The royals aren't a very talented team and they have a fairly tough schedule remaining. That would be my guess for why their odds are lagging behind the other wild card contenders.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If i had to choose between a $20 bet on the Tigers winning the division or $20 on the Tigers being a WC team, I'd pick the division.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Oblong said:

If i had to choose between a $20 bet on the Tigers winning the division or $20 on the Tigers being a WC team, I'd pick the division.

 

Why so?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just feel like with so many teams in the WC the odds are worse.... it's not based on math.   A lot of those teams are playing against each other so it's not much of a gain when one loses as chances are one of the other teams won.  With 7 games against Cleveland that's a more direct path.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just feel like with so many teams in the WC the odds are worse.... it's not based on math.   A lot of those teams are playing against each other so it's not much of a gain when one loses as chances are one of the other teams won.  With 7 games against Cleveland that's a more direct path.

We do have 7 games left, but we are also 7 games behind. Sure we can knock some off that outside the head to head games, but even going 5-2 only cuts that lead by 3. If we can go on a run and cut into their lead outside of the head to head, we are probably cutting into baltimore's lead and Seattle too.

So we could go 4-3 or 3-4 and still be right there for the wildcard.

The division is not impossible, but I just don't think there is any way that it's a more likely path to the postseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Why not?

You're right.  Its not my money.

Sarcasm aside, I still don't see Cleveland laying low enough for Detroit to catch up and surpass them.  Like Shelton mentioned, its not impossible, its just one tough mountain to climb be being 7 behind with only 7 more head-to-heads left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The Royals will not make the post-season.  Book it.

No......but they might pass the Tigers in the standings........................................

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...