Jump to content

Casimir

2015 Offseason Rewind

Recommended Posts

Dombrowski also got very lucky on trades.  As great as Cabrera is now, at the time of the trade he was "just" a great young 3B that had to move down the defensive spectrum and had 1 year of control left.  He was about a 5 win player that was moving to 1B so you would figure he would turn into about a 4.5 win player that had 1 year left.  Dombrowski traded two top 10 prospects in all of baseball for that one year and had to take on a terrible contract to boot.  Fortunately for him those two premium prospects busted and Cabrera signed an extension and turned into one of the best right handed hitters ever. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These things are so fluid.  I thought the Verlander re-signing was going to be a huge mistake and it looked that way last year but now I actually think he may have transformed himself into a new pitcher that can dominate with lower velocity and make that contract look like a good move.  You might even be able to argue given Victor 4 years was the right move now, even if he does not give us much that last year.  Last year, that would have seemed laughable.  I do agree with what you guys are saying about the Pelfrey, Aviles, and Upton deals.  Clearly, AA deserves the blame for the first two and Illitch takes the blame for the latter.  And in a year or two, even the Upton deal might look differently. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Dombrowski also got very lucky on trades.  As great as Cabrera is now, at the time of the trade he was "just" a great young 3B that had to move down the defensive spectrum and had 1 year of control left.  He was about a 5 win player that was moving to 1B so you would figure he would turn into about a 4.5 win player that had 1 year left.  Dombrowski traded two top 10 prospects in all of baseball for that one year and had to take on a terrible contract to boot.  Fortunately for him those two premium prospects busted and Cabrera signed an extension and turned into one of the best right handed hitters ever. 

I disagree on Cabrera.  You could see he was a different type of great at that young age, even if he was forced to move to first base.  He swing is so dang pretty and his power is easy to all fields.  His OPS numbers the three years prior to us acquiring him were .946, .998, and .966.  That was all prior to age 25.  I can't imagine those type of numbers are put up very often at such a young age.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Hart said:

You might even be able to argue given Victor 4 years was the right move now, even if he does not give us much that last year.  Last year, that would have seemed laughable.

Let's wait and see how the last two seasons work out.  This rebound season has been terrific.  But he offers nothing defensively and it takes a double to score him from third.  If that bat begins to sour, its going to be ugly.  Personally, I am not too keen on giving large contracts out to old one dimensional "position" players.  I think that the opportunity of getting an extra pick into the farm system and allocation that $18M per out to some pieces that fit the team a bit better (ie, some kind of defense, some kind of mobility about the basepaths) would have been more wise.  I get that he is a beloved figure among teammates and fans, but it is a bit of an issue to deal with when constructing this roster.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Let's wait and see how the last two seasons work out.  This rebound season has been terrific.  But he offers nothing defensively and it takes a double to score him from third.  If that bat begins to sour, its going to be ugly.  Personally, I am not too keen on giving large contracts out to old one dimensional "position" players.  I think that the opportunity of getting an extra pick into the farm system and allocation that $18M per out to some pieces that fit the team a bit better (ie, some kind of defense, some kind of mobility about the basepaths) would have been more wise.  I get that he is a beloved figure among teammates and fans, but it is a bit of an issue to deal with when constructing this roster.

Yeah...I do think you have to give a little extra value to Martinez because of Cabrera.  Cabrera had the drunk driving arrest the same offseason we signed Martinez and since then has been pretty much clean and free of bad publicity.  I give a lot of credit to Martinez for that.  At this point, Cabrera is probably is fine with or without Martinez but I still like him around as a stabilizing role model there.  Even if he does not give us much that last year, that was known from the get go.  The big disappointment in the deal so far was last year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Dombrowski also got very lucky on trades.  As great as Cabrera is now, at the time of the trade he was "just" a great young 3B that had to move down the defensive spectrum and had 1 year of control left.  He was about a 5 win player that was moving to 1B so you would figure he would turn into about a 4.5 win player that had 1 year left.  Dombrowski traded two top 10 prospects in all of baseball for that one year and had to take on a terrible contract to boot.  Fortunately for him those two premium prospects busted and Cabrera signed an extension and turned into one of the best right handed hitters ever. 

Cabrera was the best hitter and player in baseball under 25. He was about as safe a bet to bea HOF player as anybody his age is. Cabrera turning into one of the best RHH of all time was the expectation for him.

And DD didn't take on a bad contract, Willis did not have a contract. DD gave him a terrible one before he threw a pitch for the team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hart said:

I disagree on Cabrera.  You could see he was a different type of great at that young age, even if he was forced to move to first base.  He swing is so dang pretty and his power is easy to all fields.  His OPS numbers the three years prior to us acquiring him were .946, .998, and .966.  That was all prior to age 25.  I can't imagine those type of numbers are put up very often at such a young age.    

Miguel, Pojuls, Trout, Griffey. Pretty good company

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Dombrowski also got very lucky on trades.  As great as Cabrera is now, at the time of the trade he was "just" a great young 3B that had to move down the defensive spectrum and had 1 year of control left.  He was about a 5 win player that was moving to 1B so you would figure he would turn into about a 4.5 win player that had 1 year left.  Dombrowski traded two top 10 prospects in all of baseball for that one year and had to take on a terrible contract to boot.  Fortunately for him those two premium prospects busted and Cabrera signed an extension and turned into one of the best right handed hitters ever. 

Cabrera already was on a HoF track by the time he got here, a number of experts and even most of us knuckleheads around here said so. 

It was a great trade and recognizable as such from the first instant.  I don't agree at all with the notion that the outcome was lucky.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, TigerNation said:

Cabrera was the best hitter and player in baseball under 25. He was about as safe a bet to bea HOF player as anybody his age is. Cabrera turning into one of the best RHH of all time was the expectation for him.

And DD didn't take on a bad contract, Willis did not have a contract. DD gave him a terrible one before he threw a pitch for the team.

Agreed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Pelfrey had like 8 straight years of sub 4.5 FIPs, I think that's an extreme statement. Aviles sucks, but the main issue is he played too much. 25th man, whatever. 

Mike Pelfrey sucks. 198 hits in 164 innings last season. Can't strike anyone out. He's awful. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Strikeouts seem to have become less important this year. 

Strikeouts are not correlated to fewer runs allowed in the same way that they were in past years.

Fewer walks is still fairly correlated with fewer runs.

In my fantasy league, you would get 25 runs taken off your team runs allowed total for having the best team K/BB ratio....I might change that to lowest walk ratio in 2018 if the current trend continues in 2017.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎8‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 3:36 PM, Sydney_Fife said:

Mike Pelfrey sucks. 198 hits in 164 innings last season. Can't strike anyone out. He's awful. 

Preach on brother....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think Price was going to come back.  But signing Kim would've afforded the Tigers to address another need or two more adequately.

I don't think the upton money would have been spent elsewhere. And I'm also not sure where they would have spent it even if it was available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dombrowski also got very lucky on trades.  As great as Cabrera is now, at the time of the trade he was "just" a great young 3B that had to move down the defensive spectrum and had 1 year of control left.  He was about a 5 win player that was moving to 1B so you would figure he would turn into about a 4.5 win player that had 1 year left.  Dombrowski traded two top 10 prospects in all of baseball for that one year and had to take on a terrible contract to boot.  Fortunately for him those two premium prospects busted and Cabrera signed an extension and turned into one of the best right handed hitters ever. 

Signing Cabrera almost immediately to a long term deal makes up for him only having a couple years of control left.

Signing dontrelle to an extension was awful.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let's wait and see how the last two seasons work out.  This rebound season has been terrific.  But he offers nothing defensively and it takes a double to score him from third.  If that bat begins to sour, its going to be ugly.  Personally, I am not too keen on giving large contracts out to old one dimensional "position" players.  I think that the opportunity of getting an extra pick into the farm system and allocation that $18M per out to some pieces that fit the team a bit better (ie, some kind of defense, some kind of mobility about the basepaths) would have been more wise.  I get that he is a beloved figure among teammates and fans, but it is a bit of an issue to deal with when constructing this roster.

I don't know if it's fair to hold victor's speed against him, just because we also happen to have Cabrera. He's such a good hitter. But I suppose if there was close to an equivalent hitter that had better speed and was also available at a comparable cost, that would be better.

I think the bat will hold up, at least through next season. But if he can hit this season and next, I'm not worried that much about 2018 either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Shelton said:

I don't think the upton money would have been spent elsewhere. And I'm also not sure where they would have spent it even if it was available.

They might have used all of it.  But what they did use could have been used more wisely, diversely.

Edit to add:  Kim and Desmond probably would look pretty nice in the lineup right now, and at less than Upton's salary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's just no bloody way that anybody could have predicated that Ian Desmond would have a 400+ BABIP and a 25+ HR/FB% prior to the ASB, not to mention decent OF defense, all after switching to a harder league at age 30.  It's either incredibly lucky or incredibly brilliant.

His ****ty hitting since the ASB might be more indicative of reality.

I also defy anybody to have predicted the dumpster fire that Upton has been.

There really wasn't anybody else left to spend the $$ other than Upton, and Upton was worth it based on his established/consistent performance level.  Granted that you never know what is going to happen after a big contract is signed, especially as it regards switching to the harder league (AL), but still, this outcome so far is just beyond the pale.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

There's just no bloody way that anybody could have predicated that Ian Desmond would have a 400+ BABIP and a 25+ HR/FB% prior to the ASB, not to mention decent OF defense, all after switching to a harder league at age 30.  It's either incredibly lucky or incredibly brilliant.

His ****ty hitting since the ASB might be more indicative of reality.

I also defy anybody to have predicted the dumpster fire that Upton has been.

There really wasn't anybody else left to spend the $$ other than Upton, and Upton was worth it based on his established/consistent performance level.  Granted that you never know what is going to happen after a big contract is signed, especially as it regards switching to the harder league (AL), but still, this outcome so far is just beyond the pale.

But wouldn't Desmond have been a better primary utility option than Romine and Aviles in a make or break 1 year contract?  Heck, it wouldn't have taken much to move him around to different spots on the field, which would have helped the Tigers with depth, while he has a chance at some decent playing time, which helps Desmon reestablish himself as a quality ball player.  And considering the injury issues that Maybin has and the vulnerability that a projected OF of Gose/Maybin/Collins to go along with MartinezJD and the uncertainty of whether Castellanos finally matures as a hitter (although he was likely to play every day anyway).

As for the amount of money left, Fowler was still available.  Wasn't there another upper level OF looking for employment also?  It seems like there were 3 of them remaining at about the same time.  Maybe it was Cespedes.

Edit to add:  Kicking Desmond's name around here in January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Signing Desmond would have cost a draft pick. Of course, it would have only been a third rounder, which is what we gave up to sign upton.

Still, Desmond was forced to take 8 million to play a corner outfield spot, and he signed on February 29. He was obviously hoping to get someone to pay him more and to play shortstop. That's not something the Tigers were reasonably in position to do.

Maybe if upton and cespedes had gone elsewhere and Desmond remained unsigned at the end of February the Tigers would have made the same offer to him that the Rangers did.

But at the time it seemed like upton was a far better bet to produce from a corner outfield spot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm fine with criticizing the aviles, pelfrey, and Lowe moves. There were enough reasons not to like them. But I also don't think any of those signings were objectively awful either.

Two years for pelfrey seemed odd, but we did need a cheap starter. We may not need him next season, but he has been solid enough. I don't hate that move today.

Lowe has been a disaster. But he shouldn't have been this bad. Plenty of reasons to think 2015 was a fluke, but we needed BP arms. Of course others were available, but I think they got more money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Casimir said:

But wouldn't Desmond have been a better primary utility option than Romine and Aviles in a make or break 1 year contract?  Heck, it wouldn't have taken much to move him around to different spots on the field, which would have helped the Tigers with depth, while he has a chance at some decent playing time, which helps Desmon reestablish himself as a quality ball player.  And considering the injury issues that Maybin has and the vulnerability that a projected OF of Gose/Maybin/Collins to go along with MartinezJD and the uncertainty of whether Castellanos finally matures as a hitter (although he was likely to play every day anyway).

As for the amount of money left, Fowler was still available.  Wasn't there another upper level OF looking for employment also?  It seems like there were 3 of them remaining at about the same time.  Maybe it was Cespedes.

Edit to add:  Kicking Desmond's name around here in January.

Desmond had a slash line last year that's about identical to Upton's this year. Fowler had defensive question marks, and was expected to get 3 or 4 years with a lot more money. IIRC, the 3 OFs that were sure things were Heyward, Cespedes, Upton. With Chris Davis, Gordon, and Zobrist in the 2nd tier. Fowler and Desmond were below that.

I do think one thing the Tigers could do better is wait until the dawn of ST and go after a high risk type after the market deflates. That carries risk as well, as if a guy decides for a couple million difference he'd rather play somewhere else you could be left short.

But hey, at least we didn't sign Heyward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, sabretooth said:

I just can't agree with any criticisms of the Upton signing....Other than pure hindsight of course.

I don't think anyone could have predicted Upton would have an OPS under .700 this deep into the season.

However, and maybe this more of a team construction issue rather than a singular component, the stars and scrubs approach seems to have again left the Tigers in a bit of a jam with its lack of depth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the team construction is better than it has been in a really long time.  And that is with a **** bench.

If Upton and Zimmerman were at levels that were reasonably expected before the season started, they would be in the running for the top record in the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, there seems to have been thus acceptance of the term "stars and scrubs" to define this team, but I don't think that's accurate at all.  

This team simply spends way more $$ than most other teams (hence the stars) and has a weak bench this year.....a big part of the reason for the weak bench (other than the Aviles misfire) was the total collapse of Anthony Gose.  Other than Aviles, I actually liked the bench this year.

They have a bunch of established stars:

- miggy, vmart, jd, kinsler, upton.

Few teams can match what these 5 guys bring (or in the case of Upton, what he should bring).

The balance of the positions players (non star starters) are not scrubs, at least not by design.

Nick is not a scrub,  was a highly rated prospect, and was nearly an AS this year.

Maybin is not a scrub, and is outperforming expectations.

Iggy is not a scrub, was a highly rated prospect, but has disappointed, especially in the field.

McCann is not a good player, but his profile of weak hitting is not unusual for a Catcher on a winning team, and this one position hardly defines the teams roster mskeup/philosophy.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Motown Sports Blog



×
×
  • Create New...