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Casimir

2015 Offseason Rewind

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What an absolute **** show the previous offseason has turned into.

Free agency acquisitions have turned into an absolute farce.  Zimmermann had been performing.  Saltalamacchia has had some moments.  Beyond that, it's been deplorable.  Upton, Lowe, Aviles, Pelfrey.  On the whole, it's been a pile of fool's gold.

Trade targets have worked out fairly well.  WilsonJ and Maybin have done well.  Maybin in particular has played out of his mind, but it needs to be tempered by his injuries.

It balances out to just being a poor haul by Avila.  I don't know that there are a lot of moves to be made this upcoming season.  But I don't know how well I feel about Avila being at the controls for it.

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I didn't agree with the Lowe or Aviles signing from the start.  With Lowe I thought they were paying for a fluke year and were going to be hard pressed to get anything close to what he did last year.  Aviles I just didn't understand the need for, he'd been terrible for years and we didn't seem to have an obvious fit for.  Just a very odd signing.   Pelfrey I didn't mind mainly because I bought into the "scout signing" and I thought they saw something in him that they could tweak.  He hasn't been terrible for a number 5 starter but if they offered Hill or Fister(who I was against but it looks like I was wrong) that contract they probably could've had them instead. 

I feel like the Upton signing was more from Ilitch so I don't know how much blame I can give to Avila.  Unless for some reason he had his pick of Upton or Cespedes and picked Upton, but I don't think that's the case. 

Overall things definitely haven't panned out particularly with Lowe and Upton, and if Zimmermann's injuries end up lingering for awhile it could turn out to be completely disastrous for the future.  Hopefully that's not the case and Upton rebounds next year, in which case the offseason will end up not looking so bad. 

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6 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

I didn't agree with the Lowe or Aviles signing from the start.  With Lowe I thought they were paying for a fluke year and were going to be hard pressed to get anything close to what he did last year.  Aviles I just didn't understand the need for, he'd been terrible for years and we didn't seem to have an obvious fit for.  Just a very odd signing.   Pelfrey I didn't mind mainly because I bought into the "scout signing" and I thought they saw something in him that they could tweak.  He hasn't been terrible for a number 5 starter but if they offered Hill or Fister(who I was against but it looks like I was wrong) that contract they probably could've had them instead. 

I feel like the Upton signing was more from Ilitch so I don't know how much blame I can give to Avila.  Unless for some reason he had his pick of Upton or Cespedes and picked Upton, but I don't think that's the case. 

Overall things definitely haven't panned out particularly with Lowe and Upton, and if Zimmermann's injuries end up lingering for awhile it could turn out to be completely disastrous for the future.  Hopefully that's not the case and Upton rebounds next year, in which case the offseason will end up not looking so bad. 

LF and catcher are problems going into next yr. I had to laugh at a piece on the Tigers MLB site about McCann's hitting picking up. You can slice and dice his numbers over the last few weeks any number of ways and even with the cherry picking you still can't get a result with more than a 700 OPS. Big tear.

If Zimmerman doesn't come back and show something before the season ends he is going to be a huge off -season dilemma as well. Will they be able to count on him or not? The wrong decision is either going to cost you a bundle or leave you screwed next season.

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Should have signed Doug Fister.

He signed a one year contract for 7 million.

Instead they signed Pelfrey for 2 years at 16 million.

:alien:

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

LF and catcher are problems going into next yr. I had to laugh at a piece on the Tigers MLB site about McCann's hitting picking up. You can slice and dice his numbers over the last few weeks any number of ways and even with the cherry picking you still can't get a result with more than a 700 OPS. Big tear.

If Zimmerman doesn't come back and show something before the season ends he is going to be a huge off -season dilemma as well. Will they be able to count on him or not? The wrong decision is either going to cost you a bundle or leave you screwed next season.

John Hicks, catcher for the Hens, is hitting well this year. Anybody know if his defense is any good?

I agree that the FA signings do not look good, Trade for Frankie was good. (Could Milwaukee really not afford $8MM to pay him for '16 and a buyout for '17? Think what they could have gotten for him at the deadline...)

 

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I've been as critical as anyone on the missed signings, but you also have to credit him for being stuborn and hanging on to guys like Fulmer, Boyd, Norris, etc. It would have been really easy for him to come here and trade them for needed pieces (see Dombrowski). 

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6 hours ago, Yoda said:

I've been as critical as anyone on the missed signings, but you also have to credit him for being stuborn and hanging on to guys like Fulmer, Boyd, Norris, etc. It would have been really easy for him to come here and trade them for needed pieces (see Dombrowski). 

That's fine.  But still, on balance, I don't think Avila earns a very good grade for his offseason work.

And if teams were indeed asking for way too much (the aforementioned trio), for some of the rumored targets that the Tigers were after, wouldn't you expect most GMs to walk away from the table?  Is that really something to credit him for?

I failed to mention Rodriguez in the above as a trade acquisition.  That was a shrewd move considering he can plug the closer roll for next season as well.

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2 hours ago, Casimir said:

That's fine.  But still, on balance, I don't think Avila earns a very good grade for his offseason work.

And if teams were indeed asking for way too much (the aforementioned trio), for some of the rumored targets that the Tigers were after, wouldn't you expect most GMs to walk away from the table?  Is that really something to credit him for?

I failed to mention Rodriguez in the above as a trade acquisition.  That was a shrewd move considering he can plug the closer roll for next season as well.

On the other hand, from the standpoint of objective results, despite a pot load of injuries, the Tigers may be challenging for a playoff berth right up to the end of the season - which is quite the yr to yr improvement.

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

On the other hand, from the standpoint of objective results, despite a pot load of injuries, the Tigers may be challenging for a playoff berth right up to the end of the season - which is quite the yr to yr improvement.

I would think the post trade record from last season should be discounted.  There has been improvement from last season pre trade to this season pre trade.  But I don't think it's been as much as the offseason activity plus a healthy Verlander plus rejuvenated MartinezV and Kinsler suggest that it should be.

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Wasn't the greatest offseason,but it wasn't horrible. Upton has his issues, but I'm not giving up on him or Zimmerman. They've both shown what they can do when they're on. Upton OPS'd .800 for June and July. Zimmerman has thrown 100 innings at a sub 4 FIP. He just needs to get healthy IMO and not rush back. Maybin and KRod were great adds, Lowe is starting to rebound(possibly) and Pelfry is what he is. Aviles sucks but I don't worry too much about him. 

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I don't remember who brought up Hyun Soo Kim, but feel free to take a bow.  Granted, he's only been a part time player.  But I'd rather have his 2 year $7.2M contract over the possible Uptn albatross that the Tigers are going to be stuck with.

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3 hours ago, Casimir said:

I don't remember who brought up Hyun Soo Kim, but feel free to take a bow.  Granted, he's only been a part time player.  But I'd rather have his 2 year $7.2M contract over the possible Uptn albatross that the Tigers are going to be stuck with.

Man, I was begging for us to sign him. I'm not gonna sit here and say I was an expert on his career in Korea or anything, but it seemed clear that he was basically too cheap to be true. I don't understand how 29 teams failed to offer him more than he received. 

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1 hour ago, Nastradamus said:

Man, I was begging for us to sign him. I'm not gonna sit here and say I was an expert on his career in Korea or anything, but it seemed clear that he was basically too cheap to be true. I don't understand how 29 teams failed to offer him more than he received. 

Looking at his numbers from Korea and seeing how cheaply he went and understanding how poor the Tigers have been with bench and AAA depth.....  just gotta shake your head sometimes,

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I don't fault them too much for not going after other outfielders. They were operating under a budget all offseason until ilitch jumped in. At the time, they had Gose and Maybin along with JD. And Collins is a decent enough fourth outfielder and Moya was likely to see some time too.

We didn't know Gose would be useless.

Signing upton was a luxury and clearly owner driven, bumping Maybin/Gose to fourth outfielder status.

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7 minutes ago, Shelton said:

I don't fault them too much for not going after other outfielders. They were operating under a budget all offseason until ilitch jumped in. At the time, they had Gose and Maybin along with JD. And Collins is a decent enough fourth outfielder and Moya was likely to see some time too.

We didn't know Gose would be useless.

Signing upton was a luxury and clearly owner driven, bumping Maybin/Gose to fourth outfielder status.

He signed for 3 million bucks man......

Plus, at the time we thought Gose/Maybin was a platoon. We were looking at starting Collins in LF with no good platoon even. 

 

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Anyone with Internet access could've told you Pelfrey was a terrible signing. Especially for 2 years. Aviles was horrific and should've been gone earlier. 

Upton seemed like a Mr. I move from the start and he's been terrible. I can't blame AA for Lowe... That's on Mark. He hasn't performed. He had a good season last year. Not gonna kill Avila for that one. 

Zimmermann is a good pitcher when healthy. Salty has helped. McGehee was a good pickup too. Should've been up sooner. Would've been nice to have him over Aviles all along. 

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He signed for 3 million bucks man......

Plus, at the time we thought Gose/Maybin was a platoon. We were looking at starting Collins in LF with no good platoon even. 

 

They were right up against the luxury tax limit. And let's also not forget that 28 other teams didn't think it worth it to spend the 3 million or whatever it was on him.

I don't believe that Gose and Maybin were going to platoon either. I think Maybin was going to play almost every day, and Gose almost every day as well.

It was not an ideal situation, but failing to sign another corner outfielder that no one else wanted wasn't some obvious blunder.

And to their credit, they finally caved and spent on what should have been a great player. I think Avila probably suspected he would be able to make something like that happen.

I said during the offseason, prior to signing upton, that Avila was failing by not getting ilitch to agree to sign a big money player like cespedes, especially the longer it went on.

Maybe signing Kim would have made sense instead of going after Maybin, but I think they wanted an option for center other than Gose.

Of course, in hindsight, signing Kim instead of upton would have been great. But we needed to go big so as not to waste the rest of the older talent we had accumulated.

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Putting hindsight aside, and trying to be objective.....I don't like Avila as GM, but I don't think that the problems with Zimm and Upton reflect badly on Avila...any big FA signing involves the known risk of a post-signing fall off, not to mention that Upton was switching to a harder league, not to mention that starting pitchers get injured a fair amount. 

But Upton has been a great player and he's in his prime....who in **** could have predicted Upton's 2016 bomb?  It's crazy.

I was OK with the Maybin signing, and while his CF defense has been poor, his on-base skills and speed have been sooooo critical to this offense.  That has turned out to be a very good signing, better than I could have hoped for.

OTOH, the Pelfrey and Aviles signings were colossally stupid, and everybody except Avila and his staff knew it from day 1.  That's not hindsight....Pelfrey may not be awful for a #5 but it was still a poor decision and a silly 2-year commitment.

Lowe has been a below average pitcher for most of his career, and his success last year was based on an unusual spike in his velocity, so at his age it's not surprising that he has failed.  I preferred Lowe to the internal options before the season, but they still should have signed a better FA, or at least not given Lowe a 2-year contract. 

Any GM in Avila's case would have signed a good SP and OF given the direction and $$ provided by the owner....Avila did his job, but I don't know of any reason why Avila would have been singled out for praise for the Zimm/Upton at the time of the signings...and again, I don't think he should be blamed for their struggles this year.

Another GM might not have made the Maybin deal, so that's in the plus column for Avila.

But a good GM would not have made the other mistakes.

And now with the injuries piling up, the best Avila can muster is picking up the awful Erik Aybar.  No hitting help at all from anywhere.

Frankly DD saved Avila's *** by making a great set of moves before being fired by Ilitch....firing DD looks even more stupid than it did at the time, notwithstanding DD's mistakes (Travis for Gose, hiring Brad), such as they are.

So far, in my book Avila has scored on the Maybin pickup...otherwise he's been a net negative because of the Pelfrey/Lowe/Aviles deals.

DD and JL made this team relevant....this organization can succeed without them, but Avila and Ausmus have to perform a **** of a lot better than they have so far in their tenures as GM and Manager.

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Dombrowski was great at trades, but also signed a lot of free agents that didn't work out.  He also traded away a lot of young players which necessitated some of the free agent signings.  

As for Avila, if Upton and Zimmermann had performed as expected, the Tigers would probably have 5-6 more wins and we wouldn't be having this discussion.  

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On 8/18/2016 at 3:35 PM, Sydney_Fife said:

Anyone with Internet access could've told you Pelfrey was a terrible signing. Especially for 2 years. Aviles was horrific and should've been gone earlier. 

Upton seemed like a Mr. I move from the start and he's been terrible. I can't blame AA for Lowe... That's on Mark. He hasn't performed. He had a good season last year. Not gonna kill Avila for that one. 

Zimmermann is a good pitcher when healthy. Salty has helped. McGehee was a good pickup too. Should've been up sooner. Would've been nice to have him over Aviles all along. 

Pelfrey had like 8 straight years of sub 4.5 FIPs, I think that's an extreme statement. Aviles sucks, but the main issue is he played too much. 25th man, whatever. 

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On 8/18/2016 at 4:09 PM, Shelton said:

They were right up against the luxury tax limit. And let's also not forget that 28 other teams didn't think it worth it to spend the 3 million or whatever it was on him.

I don't believe that Gose and Maybin were going to platoon either. I think Maybin was going to play almost every day, and Gose almost every day as well.

It was not an ideal situation, but failing to sign another corner outfielder that no one else wanted wasn't some obvious blunder.

And to their credit, they finally caved and spent on what should have been a great player. I think Avila probably suspected he would be able to make something like that happen.

I said during the offseason, prior to signing upton, that Avila was failing by not getting ilitch to agree to sign a big money player like cespedes, especially the longer it went on.

Maybe signing Kim would have made sense instead of going after Maybin, but I think they wanted an option for center other than Gose.

Of course, in hindsight, signing Kim instead of upton would have been great. But we needed to go big so as not to waste the rest of the older talent we had accumulated.

I called all 29 teams idiots, not just us

and you're welcome to disagree, but I called it an obvious blunder at the time and it has turned out to be true. Its not like I'm just using hindsight. I was uncomfortable with our LF position the entire time. I was glad they got Upton and were willing to pay the tax, but signing Kim would have been much smarter. You could have gone and gotten Price back if you had done that and used Upton and Pelfrey's salaries minus Kim there. 

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7 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Dombrowski was great at trades, but also signed a lot of free agents that didn't work out.  He also traded away a lot of young players which necessitated some of the free agent signings.  

As for Avila, if Upton and Zimmermann had performed as expected, the Tigers would probably have 5-6 more wins and we wouldn't be having this discussion.  

Sure..I think when $200m of payroll performs up to par, that should translate to a playoff berth most of the time.  

It's not necessarily AAs fault that this team's not making the playoffs this year (like any unanticipated negative event there's usually multiple causes), but I don't see where he's made any positive difference either, other than the Maybin pick up.

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27 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I called all 29 teams idiots, not just us

and you're welcome to disagree, but I called it an obvious blunder at the time and it has turned out to be true. Its not like I'm just using hindsight. I was uncomfortable with our LF position the entire time. I was glad they got Upton and were willing to pay the tax, but signing Kim would have been much smarter. You could have gone and gotten Price back if you had done that and used Upton and Pelfrey's salaries minus Kim there. 

I don't think Price was going to come back.  But signing Kim would've afforded the Tigers to address another need or two more adequately.

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