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Gehringer_2

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2 hours ago, John_Brian_K said:

I am not a statistician, but 1350 people does not seem like a big enough of a sample size for the survey to say things like:

 http://www.claimscon.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Holocaust-Knowledge-Awareness-Study_Executive-Summary-2018.pdf

 

Is around 1400 people a good enough sample size in a nation of more than 350 million to really base anything on?  Plus it would be nice to know where in the US the survey took place.  How many cities, which cities etc.

I would like to see something bigger, but 1,400 people could be a big enough sample size if they are selected randomly enough.  I know nothing about the methodology of this survey.  

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

My guess is people who survey professionally know less about how to sample the population than non statisticians.

If non-statisticians don't instantly get it, then how can it be valid?

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5 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I would like to see something bigger, but 1,400 people could be a big enough sample size if they are selected randomly enough.  I know nothing about the methodology of this survey.  

This survey does random digit dialing, and if they are a reputable polling firm, then they adjust for demographics.

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Why, 'of course'?

More of a sarcastic response. I didn't want to be in the play so they had me play a German soldier at the end coming into the attic to get Anne Frank. 

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On 9/16/2020 at 8:58 AM, tiger337 said:

I have a question about the Israeli/UAE deal for people that follow these things more closely.  I thought the idea was to make a deal between Israel and Palestine?  Why did they pull UAE into it instead?  

internal arab politics.  its quite a complicated region.  instead of the former "united position" all the arab states had (that israel should not exist), they now splinter off and take their own positions.

there is a war going on between iran and saudi arabia.  there is a burgeoning conflict between turkey and its nato "allies" over the region (and libya's oil).  there is the continued syrian civil war that assad has won thanks to putin.  and there are the underlying remaining cold war tensions of russian backed states and american backed states.

none of them ever cared about the palestinians (they never let them come to their countries, they just called israel all sorts of names for not letting them back into israel), they just used them as a good rallying point to focus their people's attention away from their corruption by blaming the jews.  now they have other worries, especially the uae that relies so much on tourism now.

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37 minutes ago, Buddha said:

internal arab politics.  its quite a complicated region.  instead of the former "united position" all the arab states had (that israel should not exist), they now splinter off and take their own positions.

there is a war going on between iran and saudi arabia.  there is a burgeoning conflict between turkey and its nato "allies" over the region (and libya's oil).  there is the continued syrian civil war that assad has won thanks to putin.  and there are the underlying remaining cold war tensions of russian backed states and american backed states.

none of them ever cared about the palestinians (they never let them come to their countries, they just called israel all sorts of names for not letting them back into israel), they just used them as a good rallying point to focus their people's attention away from their corruption by blaming the jews.  now they have other worries, especially the uae that relies so much on tourism now.

this is all spot on.

If you pull back to the broader themes - in the history of the middle east, three different ethnic groups have at various times had empires that dominated the "Umma"  - the ME "Islamic World" the Arabs, the Turks and the Persians. They are, have been, and always will be jostling for relative power in the region, all using "Islam" as a wedge issue as much as they can. I agree with Buddha that fundamentally in term of real-politik, none of their rulers care about Israel's presence per se. Israel is a 'problem' in that its presence is a reversal of the 'inevitable' world conquest of Islam, so it becomes a focal point for the religious fundamentalists for whom that reversal is a challenge to their world view. 'Opposition" to Israel is a way to court the more religiously devout. But whenever groups are out of favor with the whatever the Islamic mainstream is at the time are usually quite happy to deal with Israel, as Iran was during the Iran-Iraq war.

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10 hours ago, Buddha said:

internal arab politics.  its quite a complicated region.  instead of the former "united position" all the arab states had (that israel should not exist), they now splinter off and take their own positions.

there is a war going on between iran and saudi arabia.  there is a burgeoning conflict between turkey and its nato "allies" over the region (and libya's oil).  there is the continued syrian civil war that assad has won thanks to putin.  and there are the underlying remaining cold war tensions of russian backed states and american backed states.

none of them ever cared about the palestinians (they never let them come to their countries, they just called israel all sorts of names for not letting them back into israel), they just used them as a good rallying point to focus their people's attention away from their corruption by blaming the jews.  now they have other worries, especially the uae that relies so much on tourism now.

So, is the agreement between Israel and United Arab Emirates a big deal in terms of peace in the Middle East?   

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12 minutes ago, CMRivdog said:

Meanwhile, since we pulled out of the Iran deal....

 

 But Obama...

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3 minutes ago, Oblong said:

 But Obama...

they would have had fissile material under the previous agreement too.

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21 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

So, is the agreement between Israel and United Arab Emirates a big deal?   

its always a good thing when arab countries and israel agree to any deal.  arab countries' official position for 60 years has been that israel does not deserve to exist and the jews should be exterminated.  any deviation from that official position is a good, no matter the reason and who gets the agreement done.

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29 minutes ago, Buddha said:

its always a good thing when arab countries and israel agree to any deal.  arab countries' official position for 60 years has been that israel does not deserve to exist and the jews should be exterminated.  any deviation from that official position is a good, no matter the reason and who gets the agreement done.

But UAE is such a minor player. The UAE has no cred as any kind of Islamic religious authority. It's not bad but I'd call it close to a nothingburger in the overall scheme. And these thing are easily walked  back (and forward) a la Egypt under Morsi and back agains.

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

But UAE is such a minor player. The UAE has no cred as any kind of Islamic religious authority. It's not bad but I'd call it close to a nothingburger in the overall scheme. And these thing are easily walked  back (and forward) a la Egypt under Morsi and back agains.

It's still a big deal regardless if they are a minor player or not.  You can argue that the stage was getting set for this well before Trump if you feel better about not giving him a bunch of credit for it, but it's absolutely a good thing.

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34 minutes ago, Buddha said:

its always a good thing when arab countries and israel agree to any deal.  arab countries' official position for 60 years has been that israel does not deserve to exist and the jews should be exterminated.  any deviation from that official position is a good, no matter the reason and who gets the agreement done.

Who got the agreement done?  

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

But UAE is such a minor player. The UAE has no cred as any kind of Islamic religious authority. It's not bad but I'd call it close to a nothingburger in the overall scheme. And these thing are easily walked  back (and forward) a la Egypt under Morsi and back agains.

id be willing to bet that if such a deal had been finished under obama, you might have a different opinion.

its not a groundbreaking deal like sadat and israel, but its not nothing.  its a good thing that it happened, even if its significance is surely overdone by trump.

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

Who got the agreement done?  

i dont know the details.

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UAE and Bahrain are minor players in the Middle East, so this peace accord is a minor accomplishment.   Yes, it’s a good thing,  but those Trumpies talking him up for a Nobel for it are laughable.   

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Just now, Buddha said:

i dont know the details.

It's hard to believe that Trump is smart enough to have been a major player.

I can kind of believe that he had something to do with the USMCA, but I have no idea whether that deal was a significant upgrade. 

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3 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

UAE and Bahrain are minor players in the Middle East, so this peace accord is a minor accomplishment.   Yes, it’s a good thing,  but those Trumpies talking him up for a Nobel for it are laughable.   

The Israelis and arabs have hated each other for years and nobody could do anything about it.  Trump fixed it.  

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