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Now that Britain has voted to leave the EU, and Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned, what will the future look like across the Atlantic?  How will it shape the November elections in the United States?  What does it mean for the remaining months of Obama's term?  That Obama went all-in on his support for "Remain", even penning an OP/ED in The Telegraph to let Brits know how proud they should be that they spread "British Values and Practices" to the rest of the EU.  Isn't that like telling Germany they should be proud of its engineering prowess? 

Carefully crafted, partisan position pieces have come out on Brexit already and there will surely be a flood of opinions published in The Economist, Time, Newsweek, NYT and so on. 

Scotland is rattling its sabre, the EU is upset, Northern Ireland is talking border poll, and England's major cities didn't want to leave.  But 52% voted to leave the EU.  A recession is staring them in the face, and world markets are down as a result.  Those in the "Leave" camp feel Britian can do better in trade than it did under the EU's single market, where England had been running at a deficit.  Obama, a big support of the "Remain" camp, has said that Britain will go to the "back of the que" for trade negotiations.  Imagine that.  Estimates of Britain's decline in trade range from 7, 9, 14 to 19% by 2030.  One Cardiff University study claims there will be an actual rise in GDP by 2020 because of the eliminated tariffs.

70% of registered voters turned out to cast their vote on the matter, a staggering number.  What will it take to get Americans to truly care like that? 

The left blames xenophobia for Brexit, and it seems like they are assigning most of the blame there--never mind the immigration problems, bloated banks, overbearing corporate influence and the failed leadership of Cameron. 

Brits largely don't consider themselves "European".  This is a society that acted as the catalyst for western civilization for hundreds of years, although that fact makes it almost impossible for them to ever draw sympathy from most of the rest of the world.  Britain is used to influencing other cultures, not having other cultures impose their will upon them.  Kahn becoming the first Muslim Mayor of London, was it the last straw?  He certainly worked hard to put out a pro-EU message.  Note the lack of women in the front of the crowd.

Khan

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It's a complex puzzle.  The EU right now is an insoluble economic muddle because the common currency really is not sustainable under the current economic management arrangements but there is not enough transparent democracy for member states' populations to support more a complete centralization of economic control that is the requirement for the common currency to work better long term.  On top of that in general Britain managed its recovery after the crash as well or better than the Euro zone and all it's trauma over Greece and Spain, so there was no attraction toward toward being more 'in' eventually coming from that direction. (and in the long run, Britain really had to be 'more in' or out anyway).

And elites can talk all they want about the developed world's 'obligations' to refugees and economic hardship in other places, but the reality is that no nation's population, no matter how enlightened in general, is going to support anything that appears to be unregulated or chaotic or badly managed immigration.

It was primarily those two things that ended up being enough for the Brits to decide they were better off on their own. So I guess in the end you can blame American derivatives designers and the failed Arab Spring for Brexit.

In term of going foward, I've said I think the economic doom and gloom is a bunch of BS. If your economy is productive, you will do fine in this world economy.  Just as counter the example, the Asian economies are not in the EU or Nafta and they have done just fine trading with the EU and the US. The bigger downside I think for the UK is if 'Brexit' becomes the catalyst for the dissolution of the UK. But if 1000 years of history is no longer is enough to hold them together then that was probably coming regardless of Brexit.

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I'll admit to know being fully informed on this issue, but it seems to me to be short sighted.  I think the EU in generally isn't the best setup but was headed in the right direction for Europe.

That said, I echo Gehringer's musing that this might be the end of the UK.  I've also heard that others might take inspiration from this and try to get separatist movements in their out countries kick-started.  Might the EU itself be in danger from this?

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I would have to find the link, but the wsj had an article this morning about those in Ireland using this vote to attract businesses out of London.   Then again, the London mayor is talking secession from the UK.

 

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I can kind of see why the working class would support this more than those who make big profits off the lower wages supplemented by government benefits of a large guest/migrant worker workforce and cheap imported goods. 

We have some of the same issues here causing discontent, hence Trump.  

 

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1 hour ago, ballmich said:

20160624_obama.jpg

 

HaHa. Well who knows what part of this is  correlation vs causation, but it was a dumb move in either case. There is probably no country in the world where US advice on their domestic policies is likely to be taken particularly well. It is worth pointing out the irony that Obama is sensitive - his critics would say overly so - about engaging in rhetoric that might be exploitable by our explicit enemies, but he seemed to have a deaf ear about how his/our rhetoric plays with our friends! :P

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I'm treading lightly.  The remain crowd lost a lot of cash today.  I know that's going to hurt some middle class retirees. 

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The Scottish insults directed towards Trump on internet are hilarious.  When Americans swear, we sound crude.  When someone from the UK does it, it's funny.  My favorite was "Weasel-headed **** nugget" 

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Good!

The EU money experiment was a train wreck before it was hatched.  They believed the banksters.  Dumb ****.

That is all.

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23 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

70% of registered voters turned out to cast their vote on the matter, a staggering number.  What will it take to get Americans to truly care like that? 

A reality show celebrity running for President will help. I think this will be the highest turnout national election since women got the vote. No one will be apathetic about this one.

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18 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

And elites can talk all they want about the developed world's 'obligations' to refugees and economic hardship in other places, but the reality is that no nation's population, no matter how enlightened in general, is going to support anything that appears to be unregulated or chaotic or badly managed immigration.

Since this was supposed to be something like the United States of Europe, the economies were thought to have eventually flattened and moving from Romania to Britian, or Bulgaria to Germany, should have been like moving from Illinois to Nebraska. It obviously hasn't worked out that way, and nationalism, whether latent or direct, probably has a lot to do with it.  Be that as it may, you would be crazy to stay in Romania with jobs and money aplenty in Britain or Ireland or Germany.

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31 minutes ago, chasfh said:

A reality show celebrity running for President will help. I think this will be the highest turnout national election since women got the vote. No one will be apathetic about this one.

I anticipate the opposite: many voters loathe both candidates (and parties) and will just stay home.  It's like asking which flavor of excrement they prefer.   I think most people really want to vote for someone or something rather than against.  

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I think conservative voters are more likely to stay home because of Trump than liberal voters are to stay home because of Clinton. And voters of color will have to be physically prevented from going to the polls.

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I'm not going top pretend I know if this is good or bad for the world at large, but my instincts tell me that anything Trump thinks is a good idea....probably isn't.

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9 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

No person of color running, no turnout for people of color.

I agree.  There was unprecedented participation among African Americans in 2008 and 2012, but they were voting FOR someone.  

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20 minutes ago, Antrat said:

I'm not going top pretend I know if this is good or bad for the world at large, but my instincts tell me that anything Trump thinks is a good idea....probably isn't.

That is usually sound logic.  In this case, I get the feeling it's a good thing for them though.  I can't speak  intelligently about this topic, but the European Union never seemed like a good idea to me, at least not for the stronger countries. 

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1 hour ago, mickeyb105 said:

No person of color running, no turnout for people of color.

I think this is wishful thinking.

People of color understand there's a lot a lot at stake for them. They will be sprinting to the polls at two in the morning on November 8 to make sure they will be in line to vote against Donald Trump. If anyone wants to stop that, they are going to have to physically prevent people of color from voting.

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19 minutes ago, chasfh said:

I think this is wishful thinking.

People of color understand there's a lot a lot at stake for them. They will be sprinting to the polls at two in the morning on November 8 to make sure they will be in line to vote against Donald Trump. If anyone wants to stop that, they are going to have to physically prevent people of color from voting.

Wishful thinking?  No, just look at the numbers in non-Obama POTUS elections.

Feel free to believe what you like.

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I think the blacks will show up for this election to vote against Trump.  I think you might not quite understand the hatred people have for Trump up here.  It's not just the routine political stuff.  People really really can not stand the guy as a person.  

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34 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Wishful thinking?  No, just look at the numbers in non-Obama POTUS elections.

Feel free to believe what you like.

OK, sure will.

And you: Don't stop believin'. Suits me fine.

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