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Deleterious

Pistons 2016 Offseason

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Once the Pistons season ends, they are free to make trades with other teams whose season is over.  As teams get eliminated they are eligible to be traded with as well.  They can do this up until 11:59PM on June 30th.  Players who are about to become free agents or players with options this year are not eligible for trades.

Draft

June 23rd is the NBA draft.

The Pistons select 18th and 49th.  Some sites to look at prospects:

http://www.draftexpress.com/

http://www.nbadraft.net/

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/draft16index/complete-coverage-2016-nba-draft

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft

Some info on how draft picks count against the cap.

1st round picks count against the cap as soon as they are picked.  1st round picks are "slotted" into salary slots so we already know the number.  The 18th pick this year will count as  $1,420,100 against the cap.  

Second round picks do not count when they are picked and only count if/when they are signed.  You can go over the cap to sign 2nd round picks.  So you rarely see a 2nd round pick signed until a team is down with all of its free agency business.

Interesting side note.  With the exploding salary cap and salaries, the rookie pay scale has not gone up to match the new cap numbers.  I believe these are hard number negotiated in the previous CBA.

Free Agency

June 30th - Players and teams need to announce what they are doing with their option before 11:59PM on June 30th.  Some players/teams have it in their contracts to happen June 23rd or earlier to give them some time to prepare.

July 1st - Teams are free to start talking with free agents.  But no contract can be signed at this time.

July 1st - July 7th - The league determines how much revenue it took in during the season.  This is important since it determines what the salary cap is set at for the next season.  The new cap is announced sometime during this period.  It is expected to be around $92M.

July 7th - The cap has been set and free agents can now be signed.  

Here is how max contracts will look.  The "percent of cap" is how much the first year of their contract will be for.

PK4BFOV.png

Free agent lists:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12307054/nba-free-agents-2016-2017

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/future_free_agents/2017/All/Per_Game/0/NBA/player

Summer League

It's a little early for summer league info.  But in the past the Pistons have played in the Orlando summer league and it usually starts the first week in July.  I don't expect either of those things to change.

Salary Cap Situation

I6nL0Ed.png

My prediction. They renounce Blake and Tolliver and end up with about $23M in cap space to spend this summer.  Sounds like a ton of cap space, but I'm predicting 6th man type of players will be getting $10M-$12M per year.  So they have some money for sure, but it's not a lot.

And I just realize I never added Anthony back to this list after he was traded and brought back.  But they will renounce him as well I think so it's not important for this discussion.  

Odds and Ends

KCP and Bullock are eligible for extensions this summer.  They can sign them up until October 31st.

Right now, only $500K of Hilliards season is guaranteed.  On July 15th the full $874K is guaranteed.  

Dinwiddie gets $250K of his season guaranteed on Nov. 1st.

On Jan. 10th, Dinwiddie and Brown get a full season guarantee.  

I'm sure I missed some stuff or got something wrong.  Feel free to add/correct things. 

 

 

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There's some good talent around already, but not any spot on the floor should be considered to be etched in stone.  Obviously some guys are going to be harder to move than others, but I don't think the Pistons are in position to think that any player is off of the table.

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Pretty sure I say this every year, but there is value sitting on the end of benches or deeper with rotations scattered throughout the league.  I hope SVG keeps gathering these kinds of guys, keeps what he needs and sells the others off for increased value.

Morris, Bullock, Baynes, Harris and Jackson are all players that can be flipped for solid-to-major value over the next few years, IMO, so we shouldn't get too attached to anyone on the roster at this point.

I'm expected some drama over Drummond's Max deal this summer, far less with KCP's extension.

This team needs a defensive-minded big in the worst way.  Anthony was severely underused as a Piston, makes me wonder how much SVG really values a shot-blocking big.

Rotation as it stands/needs

Starters

PG  Jackson--12th-highest PER amongst PG this season, but needs to play D and become more efficient.  35% 3pt was an acceptable leap for him, just under Del's 36% cutoff.

SG  KCP--Improved this year, decline of 3pt shooting was unacceptable.  Won't be shocked to see SVG draft a shooter to compete with him for minutes, like Meeks was supposed to.

SF  Morris--The rock of the starting lineup (team?), had a career-best year, entered prime, friendly contract.  Fifth in L in minutes, low PER, tradable asset if SVG wishes.

PF Harris--Was exactly what SVG traded for, shot and passed better than expected.  Can he be SVG's new Rashard Lewis?  Sure.  Will he improve on D?  Only 23, so we'll see.

C Drummond--Lead L in boards, highest PER on team again, regressed in FT and BLK, improved moves down low.  At 22, room for improved physical and mental conditioning.

Bench

G/F Johnson--Turns 20 next month, shows his age.  Inefficient player at this point, height of ceiling is subjective.  Effort and personality are right, needs to improve everything else.

PF/C Baynes--Effective backup big in his prime, did his job all year.  Friendly contract, SVG's Australian Gortat with less upside.

G  Meeks--SVG could have showcased him at the end, but didn't much.  Tradable asset if healthy in a shooter-crazy league.  Can/will SVG move his expiring contract?

G/F Bullock--Played little on a poor shooting and defensive team--what gives?  Shot well, D was better than most, disappears.  Story of potential getting tired, but he's cheap.

G Dinwiddie--Shaun Livingston with less upside, Dinwiddie just turned 23 and still needs more seasoning.  Cheap backup, buyout candidate.  Will he get another year?

C Anthony--The big guy can still really block shots, but rarely gets to.  Is a luxury SVG prolly can't afford next year. 

G/F Hilliard--Newly 23, can shoot and has upside.  Nice value as a second round pick, tools to be a 10-year pro.  Cheap option, duplicates Bullock's role.  Will SVG choose?

We'll just assume Tolliver and Blake won't be retained.

Needs/Solutions

PG to either spell or play with JacksonNo obvious draft solutions.  Trade for Schroder, Larkin, Exum, Lavine or Rubio.  FA market doesn't look great.

Dynamic two-way PF, bench or starter;  Trade for Jordan Mickey or Gorgui Dieng.  Draft has some talent if SVG want to gamble.

Shooting;  unless SVG wants to gamble on an INTL in the draft, he'll hope for a bargain via trade or FA.  Courtney Lee safe option, Fournier ideal, Afflalo compromise.

Defense;  players like Schroder, Larkin, Mickey and Dieng would give the team a solid defender at 1 and 4/5, which is a huge step in the right direction.

 

How can they do it?  More trades.

Larkin can be had for cheap and he is a pest on defense.  His 3pt shooting improved this season, but still a small sample

Schroder will cost a solid asset, but he's a solid upgrade from any backup pg the Pistons have had in a long time.  Would make a case to start and bump Reggie to the 2.

Jordan Mickey got most of his burn in the NBADL this year and he was a monster down low.  He was my favorite of their three picks last year, and he still is.  Shoots 3s, blocks a lot of shots and rebounds. Dynamic athlete.

Dieng is one of the most underappreciated bigs in the L and would start on some teams.  At "26", entering his prime and he is who he is--a lunch pail big that blocks shots and rebounds like a starting center.  In contract year and franchise has Pekovic/Bjelica/Towns under contract for the next few years for more money.  Affordable in a trade, IMO.

 

 

 

 

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A few things to add.

With the cap going up again next year (Estimates are $108M) you wonder if they treat KCP's extension like they did Drummonds.  Ask him not to sign this summer in order to have more cap space next summer.  If he signs this summer, his big new contract counts on the cap next summer.  If he doesn't sign, his cap hold counts on the cap and that will be quite a bit smaller than his extension number.  I think Drummond doing that saved them something like $13M in cap space.

Do you start trading draft picks now?  Package Harris and a 1st or Morris and a 1st to upgrade a position.  

I would like to see a rotation player added who has been in the league 8-10 years, maybe has a ring or two.  Someone for all of these young guys to look towards when things are getting crazy.

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8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

A few things to add.

With the cap going up again next year (Estimates are $108M) you wonder if they treat KCP's extension like they did Drummonds.  Ask him not to sign this summer in order to have more cap space next summer.  If he signs this summer, his big new contract counts on the cap next summer.  If he doesn't sign, his cap hold counts on the cap and that will be quite a bit smaller than his extension number.  I think Drummond doing that saved them something like $13M in cap space.

Do you start trading draft picks now?  Package Harris and a 1st or Morris and a 1st to upgrade a position.  

I would like to see a rotation player added who has been in the league 8-10 years, maybe has a ring or two.  Someone for all of these young guys to look towards when things are getting crazy.

Definitely wouldn't mind adding a veteran. Shooting,size and experience off the bench is needed. For the most part, I feel we are at a point where I wouldn't tinker with our core too much unless it was for a superstar type player. I think we have more to gain from continuity than small upgrades at this point. It all just depends who's out there though I suppose. I can't think of any great trade candidates at the moment. 

I'd love to pull off adding Meyers Leonard and Denzel Valentine this summer. Add a cheap veteran wing, maybe a veteran 3rd PG and you have the makings of an interesting bench. 

 

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16 hours ago, Deleterious said:

A few things to add.

With the cap going up again next year (Estimates are $108M) you wonder if they treat KCP's extension like they did Drummonds.  Ask him not to sign this summer in order to have more cap space next summer.  If he signs this summer, his big new contract counts on the cap next summer.  If he doesn't sign, his cap hold counts on the cap and that will be quite a bit smaller than his extension number.  I think Drummond doing that saved them something like $13M in cap space.

Do you start trading draft picks now?  Package Harris and a 1st or Morris and a 1st to upgrade a position.  

I would like to see a rotation player added who has been in the league 8-10 years, maybe has a ring or two.  Someone for all of these young guys to look towards when things are getting crazy.

Good observation regarding KCP/Drummond.  Kudos to SVG and his crew on that.

I'm all for using one of the combo forwards to enhance our pick in the draft to top-three.  I don't think Morris will ever be worth more in a trade than he will be now, with the possible exception of next  year.  With legal stuff ahead for Morris, will it change his value?

Harris still teases teams with potential, I just wonder how long before he is just seen as just another gunner for hire?   I wish I valued his work in the community more, Detroit needs guys like this who invest in it.

On a veteran rotation player with championship experience, that is worth exploring.  We need a PG that plays defense and Rondo is available--just sayin'.

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Im hoping in the draft they can fins a solid stretch 4 like Sabonis or  Skal Labissere . If one of those two are not available I would hope they look at Ulis. I know hes small but can shoot and playmake and an uptempo guard off the bench can help Johnson and Bullock. 

Free agency is tough because as far as PG I see Augustin as the best option, All others struggle with outside shooting

 

Strecth 4/5 guys are even worse unless you want Jon Leuer since DMo wont come here and Ryan Anderson will be expensive but if hes ok coming off the bench then pull the trigger, but hes really a 3/4 more then a 4/5. Most intriguing guy possibly might be Leuer, who did very well in phoenix or Marresse Speights from GS. Speights would be a huge overpay but big and can shoot from the outside

 

As far as trade Miami might be looking at dumping Josh McRoberts. fell out of the rotation but is a 4/5 they need and could come very cheap since they need to clear space for whiteside

 

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8 hours ago, Deleterious said:

Not saying we need to go get Crabbe.  But we need to find unpolished gems like him.

 

There are great value guys who fall to the second round like this seemingly every year--Afflalo, Parsons, Middleton, Clarkston, Crowder, Fields, Green, Chalmers, Moore, Sessions.  What these guards and forwards all have in common is that they were at least in their third year of school.  Evaluators lean so heavily on projecting out young players that they undervalue players who they feel are closer to their ceiling, even if they are very skilled already like Parsons. 

Not everyone I named is a great player currently, but all of them have been very useful at some point and have certainly overshot their 2nd round projections.  SVG thought Dinwiddie was that guy, and thought Hilliard could be that guy.  He may have been wrong on Dinwiddie, but Hilliard could be our Crabbe if given the chance.

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I think one of Harris or Morris will be dealt preferrably Harris, SJ isn't going anywhere. The Pistons have too many similar style players, not big enough at the 4 which got exposed in this series big time.

They also need a backup PG DESPERATELY.  Don't know what SVG was thinking running with Blake going into the playoffs, really needed to pick up a quality backup at the deadline.  They also need a shooter off the bench.  Bullock is an unknown, same with Hilliard and can't depend on Meeks to be healthy so without having looked at their cap situation yet (I'm assuming that Drummond gets max), I think the immediate needs are a quality 4 and a backup PG.

Also, and I think it's a longshot, but something tells me that SVG isn't all that thrilled with Jackson.  He seemed to get exceedingly frustrated with him as the season wore on so I wouldn't be surprised if he gauges his value leaguewide and looks for a potential upgrade.  It's doubtful with more immediate needs at other positions but I wouldn't be surprised if he considers moving Reggie.

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i was thinking a Meeks for Burke deal makes sense for both. Exum is coming back and with Mack ahead of Burke would make him expendable. I do like Bullock and think him and Hilliard will get better. If they get Burke and say McRoberts thru trade, then you can focus on drafting best available

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1 hour ago, tigerdon said:

i was thinking a Meeks for Burke deal makes sense for both. Exum is coming back and with Mack ahead of Burke would make him expendable. I do like Bullock and think him and Hilliard will get better. If they get Burke and say McRoberts thru trade, then you can focus on drafting best available

I could probably go for that.  Gives you a year to look at Burke before having to extend him and it gives them his Bird rights.  His shooting seems to have improved a touch but still really low assist numbers.

My one problem with that move.  With such a young roster I might want a more veteran backup PG.  Not a deal break though.  

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yeah im not fond of burke but its an option. would still draft a PG in the draft if no stretch big is available at 18. 

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Burke's NBA future is very uncertain right now.  Neto was ahead of him by the end of the year, so I would think we could acquire Trey for very little.  If we wanted him.

McBob could be had cheap as well, maybe a good solution to where to trade Meeks.

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its best the work the trade market and use the 1st on best player available. McBob and Burke would both come cheap imo and provide great reward for such low risk

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McRoberts has played a combined 59 games the past two years.  Not a huge fan of counting on players with an injury history like that.  

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i understand but as a backup 4/5 and not having to give up anything of value, its worth it. Played well when he was in charlotte and lost since hes been in miami

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I would rather find a backup pg who can play defense.  Burke is not that pg.

Although it would be nice to re-hash the trey burke is the next chris paul arguments again. :)

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im not a fan of Burke but hes cheap and an upgrade over Blake. I'd still draft Ulis if he was available. whoever plays best backs up Jackson. 

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SF-Morris, Johnson, Hiliard

PF-Harris, McRoberts (Trade)

C-Drummond, Baynes, Anthony

PG-Jackson, Burke, Ulis

SG-KCP, Bullock

 

Not bad, just shows the improvement will come from within, especially Johnson. Hopefully they can do better then McRoberts, but an upgrade over Blake should be top priority and will make that second unit better

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im thinking worst case. I think a PG that pushes the ball makes Johnson and Bullock better plus whoever the new stretch 4 they get

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

I would rather find a backup pg who can play defense.  Burke is not that pg.. :)

Is Mike James available?

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I don't see Burke as being a viable solution whatsoever at this time.  Perhaps he needs a few years in Europe to refine his game, because he is not an NBA PG right now.

McBob would have to be really gift-wrapped to us.  The draft will have some big man talent this year, and there are teams like Denver, Minny and OKC that have choices to make on which of their young bigs to keep and which ones to deal for value. 

If you stack up the likes of what some other teams have in surplus to McBob, it seems like shopping the surplus is a big win.

Back to PG, the choices on the open market are far from clear cut.  So much so, that only a few of the affordable backups would be noticeably better than Dinwiddie--who really could improve a bit by next season.  Is that a gamble SVG is willing to make?  Probably not, but he could pool all his assets and go after a real talent that would leave him with no other choice financially.

One solution is trading for Michael Carter Williams, who is in the last year of a very affordable rookie deal.  The Bucks may be rolling with Giannis as their PG going forward (yikes for the rest of the league).

He doesn't shoot as well as anyone would like but he can defend three positions and even start in case SVG can find a home for Jackson that nets a suitable return.  MCW checks a lot of boxes for us, and yes, he would have to get a clean bill of health.  The Bucks need another shooter, and wouldn't you know it--we have Meeks.

MCW would be up for a new contract, so of course it is a gamble.

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