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mickeyb105

Vegas State of Mind Thread

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10 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I could see some truth to that.  

But table games probably drain peoples wallets faster than poker does.  And they never lack for customers.  

Better comps FTW!

It is crazy how scared your average gambler is of sitting down at a casino to play poker.  

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6 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

Better comps FTW!

It is crazy how scared your average gambler is of sitting down at a casino to play poker.  

I'm terrified of table games.  I'm fine with blackjack and roulette, iffy on craps.  I don't have a clue about any of the other games.

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7 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

I'm terrified of table games.  I'm fine with blackjack and roulette, iffy on craps.  I don't have a clue about any of the other games.

I'm competent at BJ, will play craps when I have someone to follow, and every other game scares me.

i played Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em once at NYNY and I lost $100 faster than Adonnal Foyle.  Never played again.

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The girl has been playing in the noon tournament the past two weeks.  $40 and they usually draw 30-40 people, so nothing big, but it's providing some good and cheap experience for her.  

Every day she seems to just blind out.  Every day when she leaves the house she says she is going to be more aggressive.  Every day when she gets home she tells me how she blinded out, again.  I have been pushing her on only playing good starting hands so much, she doesn't realize that K5s is a good hand when first to act and you only have enough chips for a few more rotations.  

 

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I cut my teeth in the $45 tournaments at Palm Beach Kennel Club back in 05/06.  t1500 to start, 20 min blinds doubling every level.   175-200 entrants.

 I cashed my third trip there, coming in 8th, and that $190 felt like $190K!  Huge confidence builder, even if it was prolly mostly luck.  She'll break through and cash if she learns to shift gears.

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They sound pretty good.  A friend was there and she said it was amazing.  I just checked on Chicago ticket prices, about a thousand dollars cheaper than a few months ago.  They added a second show which cratered prices. I can get on the floor in the first section for a few hundred bucks.  The A1-A6 sections. Those were all over $1K last time I looked.  Tempted.

 

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5 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Oh, and they went on 2 minutes early last night.  Axl, all grown up and stuff.  

Totally worth floor seats, IMO, just to watch Slash grind that axe.

Impressive from Axl.

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Cardplayer has an article about Wynn's new poker room at Encore.  It has a sportsbook window next to the cage in the poker room.

Now I can lose to a runner-runner flush while watching Steph Curry shoot a meaningless three at the end of the game to beat my under.  

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Cardplayer has an article about Wynn's new poker room at Encore.  It has a sportsbook window next to the cage in the poker room.

Now I can lose to a runner-runner flush while watching Steph Curry shoot a meaningless three at the end of the game to beat my under.  

I'm not a Cardplayer subscriber anymore, so I couldn't read past the second paragraph. 

Just a few thoughts on this, or maybe more than a few:

--The original Wynn Poker room was the nicest in Las Vegas for years, and may very well still have been the nicest right up until the room at Encore opened.  It sure didn't seem like it had 25 or 26 tables, I would have guessed 18.

--I always wondered why Wynn's poker room was relatively underattended.  Was it the location, being on the north end of central strip?  It sure wasn't anything else, because the dealers were good, the tables were downright luxurious as were the chairs, and the drink service was not just fast--the waitresses were under modeling contracts.

--Steve Wynn opened the two best poker rooms in Las Vegas about a decade apart--Mirage and then Bellagio. 

--Wynn had Bobby Baldwin--one of the best poker players to ever walk the planet, and maybe the most intelligent of the old generation--spearheading poker operations back then.  When Wynn and Baldwin parted ways, and Baldwin took a sweet executive's job with then-MGM/Mirage, Wynn was left to create the poker room by himself. 

--It is impossible to overestimate how instrumental Baldwin was/is in bringing in the best poker players/poker culture to a room--Mirage, Bellagio and now Aria.

--Wynn brought Daniel into the fold around 2005, right after they opened, where he was given "residency" in the poker room.  Daniel took on all comers heads-up for a period of time, inviting players to bring their best game.  He ended up breaking about even, if memory serves, which IMO was a major accomplishment going up against specialists like Mimi Tran and  David Oppenheim, aggressive young players like Joe Cassidy was back then, and an incredible mixed-game player like Barry Greenstien.  This brought some traffic through and raised the profile of the room for a period of time.

--Putting the sports book next to the poker room is obviously smart, as it works really well for Bellagio.  Here's a decent pic of Encore's room, eye candy for sure.

IMG_0090.jpg

 

Can Encore steal players from Bellagio and Aria?  They'll have to if they want to prosper.  With a large pool of players to pull from at Venetian, Encore will get some initial crossover traffic that Wynn had lost over the years because it is new.  One of the things I do not like about Bellagio and Aria are how big the lists get surrounding big tournament times like WPT and WSOP.  If Encore can establish itself as a destination, it can pull some business from the MGM properties and establish a secondary hub for poker on the Strip.  Venetian has the biggest room in town, and now Wynn has the newest AND nicest room.  We'll see what happens.

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So it looks like Vegas in early December is a real option.  As much as I wish it could be anytime from April to June (April through June!!!), I'll still take it.

We have a $100 airline credit, and it looks like we can get four nights comped, if we stay at a lower-tier MGM property, with about $200 combined Freeplay and resort credit.  For Aria or Bellagio, prolly looking at two comped days.  

I do have to say, I'm tempted to stay inNorth-Centtal Strip this time--Mirage, Venetian or Wynn.  I'm real curious about the new poker room at Encore, pending getting my game out of reverse.

Resort fees suck, of course, to the tune of $30 per night.  Parking should still be free to me with Pearl MLife status at MGM resorts.

i've got until early Ausust to decide on an exact time to go, and prolly longer on a place to stay.  If it were going to be warm, I would try out Mandalay Bay because of the lazy river/pool area but no deal in 50 degree weather.

 

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December means  you have basketball to gamble on, so make it the Encore room.  You aren't a real degen until you have money on a 76ers-Kings game while sitting in a game a level or two over your bankroll.  

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Speaking of getting your game going in the right direction.  I will finish June up $83 for the month.  I refused to go on Sunday just so I wouldn't risk losing it.  I needed to book a green month for my psyche.  I will get back to losing on the 1st.

The girl played in the Sunday deep stack.  She busted out in the top half so she was happy, and it wasn't blinding out.  She got it all in with a set and a guy hit a flush on the river to bust her.  

They alternate Sunday's.  1st and 3rd Sunday of the month is the normal $100.  2nd and 4th is the $200 deep stack.  But on months with a 5th Sunday, like July, they have a $400 tournament and I believe her plan is to play that.

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7 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

December means  you have basketball to gamble on, so make it the Encore room.  You aren't a real degen until you have money on a 76ers-Kings game while sitting in a game a level or two over your bankroll.  

All excellent points.  I wonder if the poker room would deliver Tenderloin Benedict from Society Cafe to start/cap-off the bender like a champ?

I'm looking at the week of the B1G Football Championship game as the likely week we would go.  Dare I dream of pushing all my bankroll on Michigan vs whoever they play that day?

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11 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

Speaking of getting your game going in the right direction.  I will finish June up $83 for the month.  I refused to go on Sunday just so I wouldn't risk losing it.  I needed to book a green month for my psyche.  I will get back to losing on the 1st.

The girl played in the Sunday deep stack.  She busted out in the top half so she was happy, and it wasn't blinding out.  She got it all in with a set and a guy hit a flush on the river to bust her.  

They alternate Sunday's.  1st and 3rd Sunday of the month is the normal $100.  2nd and 4th is the $200 deep stack.  But on months with a 5th Sunday, like July, they have a $400 tournament and I believe her plan is to play that.

Congrats on righting the ship, Del.  Your psyche is your most valuable tool at the table.  

I'm glad your girl is happy with her progress.  Having a set beat by a rivered straight or flush to end your tournament can be heartbreaking, but it means you got your money in good and that is all you can ask for.

Since I have zero time to play b&m, I'm considering joining Club WPT just to have live competition and to have something to play for.  I need to see hands, need to make decisions.

 

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6 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

Congrats on righting the ship, Del.  Your psyche is your most valuable tool at the table.  

I'm glad your girl is happy with her progress.  Having a set beat by a rivered straight or flush to end your tournament can be heartbreaking, but it means you got your money in good and that is all you can ask for.

Since I have zero time to play b&m, I'm considering joining Club WPT just to have live competition and to have something to play for.  I need to see hands, need to make decisions.

 

Americans are at a big disadvantage not being able to play multiple tournaments a day from your home.  

So far I don't think I see any evidence of this.  But I have always thought it could create a lack of American tournament players.  Or at least high level players.  

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6 hours ago, mickeyb105 said:

All excellent points.  I wonder if the poker room would deliver Tenderloin Benedict from Society Cafe to start/cap-off the bender like a champ?

I'm looking at the week of the B1G Football Championship game as the likely week we would go.  Dare I dream of pushing all my bankroll on Michigan vs whoever they play that day?

Big emotional bet on the home team.  Top level degen stuff right there. 

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

Americans are at a big disadvantage not being able to play multiple tournaments a day from your home.  

So far I don't think I see any evidence of this.  But I have always thought it could create a lack of American tournament players.  Or at least high level players.  

It may be years before we see the decline of the American big buy-in tournament player.  A great deal of the guys that started playing online in high school now live abroad in places they can play online and continue making money multi-tabling.  Those guys are like 24-32 years-old.  Many have moved on from poker, some have declined. 

But will we see many more 21-23-year-old Americans winning bracelets or WPT titles this or next year?  I'm guessing no, but that's without looking at data.  Phenoms like the Ship it Holla Balla crew (Tom Dwan, Jason Koon, Paul Volpe, Peter Jetten, Andrew Robl, Phil Galfond, Johnathan Little, Alec Torelli, etc . . .), for example, don't happen without online poker.  While this crew of players may not all be the best in their age group, they represent a healthy chunk of the American talent (Jetten, a Canadian, is the only non-American of the group).  Fun fact:  Robl went to Michigan State, but of course didn't finish.

BTW, if you haven't read "Ship It Holla Ballas: How a Bunch of 19-year-old College Dropouts Used the Internet to Become Poker's Craziest and Richest Crew" then put that near the top of your list of must-reads.  Yes, the title is awful but the content is incredible.  I would send you my copy but I loaned it out to a buddy across the state.

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22 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

BTW, if you haven't read "Ship It Holla Ballas: How a Bunch of 19-year-old College Dropouts Used the Internet to Become Poker's Craziest and Richest Crew" then put that near the top of your list of must-reads.  Yes, the title is awful but the content is incredible.  I would send you my copy but I loaned it out to a buddy across the state.

We have been taking trips to the library lately and I noticed they have that book.  I will pick it up sometime.  

I also have Shoe Dog on digital hold for my tablet.  I think I'm 15th in queue.  Pretty sure you recommended that.  

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30 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

We have been taking trips to the library lately and I noticed they have that book.  I will pick it up sometime.  

I also have Shoe Dog on digital hold for my tablet.  I think I'm 15th in queue.  Pretty sure you recommended that.  

I think someone else recommended Shoe Dog, but I'm sure it will be one **** of a read.  I recommended Swoosh: The Unauthorized Story of Nike and the Men Who Played There as companion reading for Swoosh, IIRC.

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37 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

I think someone else recommended Shoe Dog, but I'm sure it will be one **** of a read.  I recommended Swoosh: The Unauthorized Story of Nike and the Men Who Played There as companion reading for Swoosh, IIRC.

I had the right person, just the wrong book haha.  Oh well, should be a good one still.  

I will have to check on that one as well.  

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1 hour ago, Deleterious said:

I had the right person, just the wrong book haha.  Oh well, should be a good one still.  

I will have to check on that one as well.  

At the very least, it will offer another voice telling a fascinating business story.

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In the NBA playoffs this year, the under was 104-64-4.  

You could have booked a 72% win rate just betting the under for the entire playoffs.  

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20 minutes ago, Deleterious said:

In the NBA playoffs this year, the under was 104-64-4.  

You could have booked a 72% win rate just betting the under for the entire playoffs.  

I'm going to investigate how sports books delegate their handicapping.  I would like to think that they would have a handicapper for each sport, but as corporate as American casinos are now it is quite possible that they consolidate quite a few things with the exception of NFL.  Gotta think NFL has enough action from professional bettors that they would have to have a specialist--or even a think tank of specialists--handicapping it.

At any rate, the under got its a** kicked this year!

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24 minutes ago, mickeyb105 said:

I'm going to investigate how sports books delegate their handicapping.  I would like to think that they would have a handicapper for each sport, but as corporate as American casinos are now it is quite possible that they consolidate quite a few things with the exception of NFL.  Gotta think NFL has enough action from professional bettors that they would have to have a specialist--or even a think tank of specialists--handicapping it.

At any rate, the under got its a** kicked this year!

I imagine in this day and age it's all done by some sort of computer model.  

Not only do they need to consider all of the teams data, they also need to consider the public's tendencies as well.  If all of your sports data says Pistons -5 over Orlando, you have to then take into account how the public will bet favorites/dogs.  If they have hard data saying the public bets the dogs hard on anything -5 and under, they might have to bump it to -6 or -7 to get even money.

Remember, they don't give a damn what the score/spread is.  All they want is $1 on Detroit and $1 on Orlando.  Thats why that 72% win rate for the under might not matter to Vegas if that is what it took to get even money on both the O and U.  They don't care about win/loss rates as long as they have even money on both teams.  They win either way then.

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