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Vegas State of Mind Thread

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14 minutes ago, Hongbit said:

Interesting.   My first thought was is this going to be the death of online poker.   Who’s going to play for stakes once some of this technology starts to become more accessible.   

Online poker has been dead for years.  And bots have been online for years too.  

 

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On 7/11/2019 at 2:41 PM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Someone downloaded the hand history and converted it to a Poker Tracker file.  I no longer have PT but he did post some numbers and some are sort of interesting.

First, it was only 10K hands which doesn't tell us much.  50K or even 100K would give us a much better read.

Pluribus actually was a losing player in this session.  He (Is a computer masculine?) actually lost over 7BB/100 which is a massive losing rate.  They declared him a winner by running some variance adjustment algo on all the hands.  Neat trick and I need to try that next time I lose a $5,000 pot at the tables.  

Some stats:

VPIP: 27% which is low in 6-max.  Mine was always around 40%.  But again, you can get cold cards and do 27% over 10K hands real easy.

PFR: 17.96% which again is very low.  That is about the number you want for a full ring game.  My 6-max was always >35%.  Interesting the only 3 hands he raised pre flop with 100% of the time are AKs, AA, KK.  Cant say I understand calling with QQ or JJ but he did.

CC 2Bet PF: 7.48% which isn't bad.  But it's interesting to see the hands he is cold calling with.  AJo KQo which are two hands usually dominated by a PFR.  He also calls a lot with low suited connectors, which isn't awful.  But usually you want to raise those to mix your ranges since higher suited connectors are usually just flatted.  

WTSD: 30% touch low but not out of line.

W$SD (Won when going to showdown): This number is cut off on his graphic.  But it looks like 48%.

CBet: Again cut off but looks like 63% which my first thought was that is alarmingly low.  Playing at low stakes I play at you want it almost 100% because people are so weak.  But the computer is playing pro's so this percentage is probably fairly good.

My initial thoughts are it's easy to see why he lost so much with those numbers.  6-max is often about brutal aggression.  But being honest I can't tell much without digging into individual hands, which I can't do without PT.  I consider myself to be a very average player and I have had plenty of 10K blocks where I lost 7BB/100...or more.  I would say he was a bit passive pre flop, bit of a calling station too.  My HUD would have labeled him as tight-passive probably.

I think if a human is going to beat a computer it will have to be in a short session like this.  As it gathers more and more data on the players it will just start to dominate.  It would be fascinating to compare these 10K hand numbers against say, 100K hands.  Or better yet, a million hands.  I bet those numbers would look a lot different and a lot better.

 

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Gary Gates made the final table in the main event.  He was at that concert a few years ago where that mass shooting happened in Vegas.

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How is this not an automatic shove? You're short stacked and it's likely the big stack is trying to bully.  And you fold?  Ugh.

 

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2 hours ago, Deleterious said:

How is this not an automatic shove? You're short stacked and it's likely the big stack is trying to bully.  And you fold?  Ugh.

 

He put him on the 2 hands that beat him.  Stupid really.  I would not call that the 'ultimate fold', but then again I like QQ...it usually serves me well.

His thought process was something like "even if he has AK, I have to fade one of those on the flop if I call, so either I fold or push"...then he put him on AA...incorrectly

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James Holzhauer is in the booth for the WSOP Main Event final table.

Also so an ad the other day where he will be in the Jeopardy Tournament of Champions in a few weeks.  

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Ensan takes it down and gives old guys everywhere a little hope.

I turned it off at 4AM and they were still playing.  Great idea moving it from November.  Now fix the problem of it ending in the early hours of the morning.  

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Pretty decent 4 part documentary on Showtime about sports betting.  Mostly about what legalized sports betting will mean to the country.

Sort of curious if Michigan will legalize it.  I wouldn't mind spending a fall Saturday sitting at Firekeepers and betting college football.  Or that first weekend of the NBA playoffs where you have 4 games Saturday and Sunday.

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Firekeepers should also offer -105 lines to draw people away from Detroit.  I can only dream.

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Less choices and competition doesn't seem good for the consumer.  But who am I kidding.  They don't care about that.

 

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Before the start of The British Open, Rory McIlroy was the Vegas favorite.  He finished the first round +8 and in 150th place.  156 people entered the tournament.

He has some company though.  Tiger is 144th and David Duval is 156th.  

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Guess who lives 2 hours from Hammond?

That place sucks though.  There isn't an on site hotel.  

 

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Firekeepers broke ground on a hotel expansion.  They are adding a second tower which will include about 200 more rooms, more convention space, auditorium space for bigger shows, and restaurant space.

They said they have pretty much been fully booked since they opened 5 years ago.  It won't be completed until 2021.

Save room for a sportsbook! 

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I imagine we're going to see multiple states legalize sports betting in the next couple of weeks.  They will want to get it done before football season starts.  

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I just read that the Horseshoe Casino in Hammond Indiana started building a sportsbook.  They expect it to be up and running by September 1st.

I might have to take a road trip down there one Saturday this fall.  You know, to see some fall color.  

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