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4/6/2016: Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins - 4:55 PM

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I know it's early season - but this is from the New's game write-up:

Quote

Manager Brad Ausmus didn’t hesitate. Sanchez was working on a three-hit shutout through five innings. The bullpen was used for five innings Tuesday night. The Marlins would be sending the heart of their order to the plate in the bottom of the sixth. 

It was a no-brainer to keep Sanchez in the game. Even Martinez wasn’t expecting to hit.

“No,” Martinez said. “Anibal was low in his pitch count and he was throwing the ball great.”

Said Ausmus: “With one out it would have been a much tougher decision. With two outs, no. I wanted to get another inning out of him. We don’t want to be short in the bullpen. You don’t know how the last three inning were going to go.”
 

I don't mean to be on the 'Ausmus is a bad manager' wagon the first series - there are things about him I like - really - , but it has just so happened that in this interview he has already highlighted one thing I absolutely don't like about his managing - which is you don't get innings out of pitchers by wanting them. You have to forget about what you want. All there is is what he's got (the pitcher). I absolutely believe that unless Ausmus learns to stop managing based on what he wants from his pitchers and starts managing based on a sober evaluation of what his pitchers have, he will continue to manage a team that blows leads. 

Over parsing his comments?  I hope so but doubt it.

So with that out the way

Great win - we be 2-0 and ahead of the evil Royals!

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Pitching is looking good. Aside from the Rodriguez blowup last night and some guy that shouldn't be here tonight, they look good. And we have lots of depth. Wilson and Hardy are coming back real soon, Norris ,Fulmer, and Jimenez will all probably be up at some point in the 2nd half. This is not going to be a bad pitching stuff. They'll be at least average with a chance to be quite good. 

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3 hours ago, PuNk42AE said:

1914 is the last time someone Viktor'd the first two games

 Let's hope that this year turns out better than that year did. 

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10 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

 ...I absolutely believe that unless Ausmus learns to stop managing based on what he wants from his pitchers and starts managing based on a sober evaluation of what his pitchers have, he will continue to manage a team that blows leads... 

 

But then, that's the question, isn't it?   How to determine what he has left?  Low pitch count, good pitch location, no obvious signs of fatigue.  Just a recent history of not getting past the middle innings, and who knows, maybe this year will be different, what with his new delivery.  How to find out other than staying with him?  An experiment, call it, early in the season when mistakes aren't so costly.

 

I probably sound like an Ausmus apologist here, and maybe I am -- I just don't look forward to an entire season blaming Ausmus for "moronic" managing.

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26 minutes ago, IdahoBert said:

 Let's hope that this year turns out better than that year did. 

Yeah, a 80-73 winning record and a world war starting isn't a good trade-off. If the Tigers had won the pennant in 1914 I would have ethical questions about whether to root for a full repeat of 1914 or not.

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3 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I know it's early season - but this is from the New's game write-up:

I don't mean to be on the 'Ausmus is a bad manager' wagon the first series - there are things about him I like - really - , but it has just so happened that in this interview he has already highlighted one thing I absolutely don't like about his managing - which is you don't get innings out of pitchers by wanting them. You have to forget about what you want. All there is is what he's got (the pitcher). I absolutely believe that unless Ausmus learns to stop managing based on what he wants from his pitchers and starts managing based on a sober evaluation of what his pitchers have, he will continue to manage a team that blows leads. 

Over parsing his comments?  I hope so but doubt it.

So with that out the way

Great win - we be 2-0 and ahead of the evil Royals!

I dont watch many games other than Tiger games, but when I do managers of opposing teams appear to yank their pitchers sooner than he does. This is a very subjective observation but I notice it because I'll be thinking to myself "why doesn't he yank that guy" and when I notice opposing managers just doing that with apparently greater frequency I get this idea that Brad either doesn't know what he's doing, or he doesn't trust the detritus that is our bullpen.  From the remarks of his that you quoted, I get the feeling that it's the latter; that beyond the good starting pitchers he doesn't trust the relievers he has to work with.  And if one of the relievers gets in trouble who else are you going to send out there?  You're screwed anyway so you might as well just leave the guy in there. 

 

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Here's my thought. In a game in a NL ballpark, where you have to hit your pitchers, you have to manage the team better in situations like that. 6th inning, pull the pitcher and try to get a hit and bring in a couple more runners. You have to manage substitutions in game situations like that in an NL park. Had someone gotten a hit, that's 2 runs more for the Tigers, and 2 runs less if Sanchez doesn't put 2 men on right away with extra bases.

I was shocked Sanchez was hitting at that point in the game with bases loaded. You have to manage the game, not try to manage to get more innings out of the pitchers. 

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My observation is that Justin Upton swears loudly when he doesn't do what he wants at the plate.   Loud enough so that the compressed video captured him.   I guess he wants to do well.  

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8 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I know it's early season - but this is from the New's game write-up:

I don't mean to be on the 'Ausmus is a bad manager' wagon the first series - there are things about him I like - really - , but it has just so happened that in this interview he has already highlighted one thing I absolutely don't like about his managing - which is you don't get innings out of pitchers by wanting them. You have to forget about what you want. All there is is what he's got (the pitcher). I absolutely believe that unless Ausmus learns to stop managing based on what he wants from his pitchers and starts managing based on a sober evaluation of what his pitchers have, he will continue to manage a team that blows leads. 

Over parsing his comments?  I hope so but doubt it.

So with that out the way

Great win - we be 2-0 and ahead of the evil Royals!

I think you are over parsing his comments. The issue in question wasn't about pushing Sanchez. It was whether he was going to pinch hit victor for him with two outs and the bases loaded. They were up 5-0 at the time and they still had at least four innings to get through. 

I thought it was the right call to let anibal bat and go out there for the sixth inning. 

So in this case I don't think Ausmus "wanted" anything more than to keep using an effective pitcher rather than remove him for a pinch hitter. 

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5 hours ago, IdahoBert said:

I dont watch many games other than Tiger games, but when I do managers of opposing teams appear to yank their pitchers sooner than he does. This is a very subjective observation but I notice it because I'll be thinking to myself "why doesn't he yank that guy" and when I notice opposing managers just doing that with apparently greater frequency I get this idea that Brad either doesn't know what he's doing, or he doesn't trust the detritus that is our bullpen.  From the remarks of his that you quoted, I get the feeling that it's the latter; that beyond the good starting pitchers he doesn't trust the relievers he has to work with.  And if one of the relievers gets in trouble who else are you going to send out there?  You're screwed anyway so you might as well just leave the guy in there. 

 

Personally I would have preferred that they had pinch hit for Sanchez in that situation.  But the Tigers had two outs for a few hitters, the lower end of the order, did they not?  Plus, it was the top of the 6th, Sanchez had looked fairly efficient through that point (less than 75 pitches through 5 innings with no really stressful innings).  So how likely is any manager going to have an arm going at that point?

 

Plus I think you're right about Ausmus having more trust in the starters than the relievers.  Does anyone here have more trust in the relievers than the starters?  You're full of **** if you say yes.  But I can see the debate given where Sanchez was approaching in his pitch count.

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11 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

We were talking about fox sports go, which is the app/service provided by fox that requires you to authenticate your tv provider. Comcast does not support that app and you cannot use your Comcast login to get access to FSD through the fox sports go app. 

The thing you just linked is the xfinity app that lets you watch your channels on your phone/tablet when you are at home and connected to your home wifi. 

Both apps would allow you to watch the tigers on FSD on your phone/tablet while you are at home. Only FSGo allows you to watch the tigers on FSD on your phone/tablet/computer when you are away from home. 

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11 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

yeah, pitching to Jose Altuve to avoid Preston Tucker was because of a bad bullpen.   Pinch running for V-Mart after a single with two outs was the bullpen's fault.    I get he doesn't have much to work with, but he makes some strange decisions.  

Yeah, I think everyone fully acknowledges that these situations were not the fault of the bullpen.

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5 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Personally I would have preferred that they had pinch hit for Sanchez in that situation.  But the Tigers had two outs for a few hitters, the lower end of the order, did they not?  Plus, it was the top of the 6th, Sanchez had looked fairly efficient through that point (less than 75 pitches through 5 innings with no really stressful innings).  So how likely is any manager going to have an arm going at that point?

JD Martinez was the second out of the inning.  Runners on 1st and 2nd with 2 outs.  Fernandez was at the end of his pitch count rope, but he'd also had 13 Ks in his 22 batters faced at that point.  Probably not thinking much about replacing Sanchez at that point.

Now once McGowan comes into the game, perhaps there's some thought about tacking on more runs with the runners on base.  But then again, there are 2 outs, and 3 hitters ahead of Sanchez.  That, as well as McGowan's warm up pitches, seems like ample time to warm up Sanchez's replacement, but how realistic is it that pinch hitting for Sanchez in that inning happens?

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

I think you are over parsing his comments. The issue in question wasn't about pushing Sanchez. It was whether he was going to pinch hit victor for him with two outs and the bases loaded. They were up 5-0 at the time and they still had at least four innings to get through. 

I thought it was the right call to let anibal bat and go out there for the sixth inning. 

So in this case I don't think Ausmus "wanted" anything more than to keep using an effective pitcher rather than remove him for a pinch hitter. 

I would agree that it might have been okay to bat Sanchez IF he wasn't on such a short leash. Ausmus hit a pitcher with the bases loaded and the opponent on the ropes. Getting a few extra runs could have been lethal to the Marlins, and while I know there wouldn't be any guarantee that Victor would have gotten a hit, you're talking about maybe a 35-40% chance vs. the less-than 5% chance that Anibal wouldn't be an easy out.

Where I was apoplectic was when it was obvious that Anibal was on a short leash. He let the first 2 runners on, but none had scored when he was pulled. Obviously, Ausmus did not have supreme confidence in Anibal giving much more. That's why he should have pinch-hit. 

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Not that I disagree with the overall point being made, because I don't, but the Tigers were up 5-0 at that point with 4 innings to go.

I don't know what the odds they would win were after 5 1/2 innings, but I would guess at least a 95% chance to win (EDIT: looked it up - it, coincidentally, was 95.1%), which is pretty damned lethal on its own.  The most likely outcome of a pinch hitter is also an out.  But even assuming a hit, the most common hit is a single, and given 2 outs, forced runners, suppose 2 runs score.

The odds leading 7-0 as opposed to 5-0 after 5 1/2 innings is not that big an improvement in your odds to win.  Maybe 98% or something.

I would also add Sanchez probably had a 10% chance to reach, not 5%.

 

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7 minutes ago, LineCrosser said:

I would agree that it might have been okay to bat Sanchez IF he wasn't on such a short leash. Ausmus hit a pitcher with the bases loaded and the opponent on the ropes. Getting a few extra runs could have been lethal to the Marlins, and while I know there wouldn't be any guarantee that Victor would have gotten a hit, you're talking about maybe a 35-40% chance vs. the less-than 5% chance that Anibal wouldn't be an easy out.

Where I was apoplectic was when it was obvious that Anibal was on a short leash. He let the first 2 runners on, but none had scored when he was pulled. Obviously, Ausmus did not have supreme confidence in Anibal giving much more. That's why he should have pinch-hit. 

I think either call would have been defensible. Sanchez finished with 89 pitches so I'm not sure exactly how many he had thrown prior to the 6th inning, but it was probably about 80 or so. So you've got a pitcher who was pitching very well and only at about 80 pitches, and there are two outs and you are already up 5-0. If there was one out, his pitch count was higher, or if the game was closer, I think you pull Sanchez for sure. 

Of course, he didn't end up getting any outs in the sixth so it didn't work out. But victor also hit a two run homer the next time he was up, so in a way it did work out to save victor for later. But neither of those issues should have anything to do with the decision made in the top of the sixth. 

I think the decision was fine. My comment to @Gehringer_2 was mostly directed to the comment about "wanting" something from his pitcher that he didn't have. Sanchez still "had it" at that time. And the pen had been stretched a bit thin the night before, but that's not so much an issue with the off day today and everyone likely available to pitch anyway. In that regard, I would have been fine with it if had pulled Sanchez, because I think the definitely had the arms to get through four more innings (or more if it went to extras).

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6 hours ago, mtdman said:

Here's my thought. In a game in a NL ballpark, where you have to hit your pitchers, you have to manage the team better in situations like that. 6th inning, pull the pitcher and try to get a hit and bring in a couple more runners. You have to manage substitutions in game situations like that in an NL park. Had someone gotten a hit, that's 2 runs more for the Tigers, and 2 runs less if Sanchez doesn't put 2 men on right away with extra bases.

I was shocked Sanchez was hitting at that point in the game with bases loaded. You have to manage the game, not try to manage to get more innings out of the pitchers. 

We were already up 5-0.  And while the bases were loaded there were also two outs.  Sanchez finish with about 89 pitches, what was he after the fifth inning, roughly 80?  I don't have a problem with leaving Sanchez in to bat in this situation.  Particularly after the extra innings the night before. If the game had been closer or tied, I might have preferred a pinch hitter, but not with the big lead and another potential inning available from Sanchez. 

I think the bigger issue is going to VerHagan with two runners on and no outs in the 6th.  I don't see why we won't use Lowe in that situation, it's higher leverage, and he's supposed to be one of our best RP.  I don't like this BS about saving J Wilson and Lowe for the 7th and 8th. 

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Like others have said, the issue I have with having Anibal hit is that he was likely going to pull him at some point in the sixth anyway.  He almost surely wasn't gonna go out for the 7th regardless.

So best case scenario you get 3 more outs out of Sanchez and save a BP arm.  

I don't think that outweighs the chance to tack on a couple more runs, prevent Sanchez from possibility hurting himself batting, or Sanchez wearing down in the 6th(which of course he did) and allowing the Marlins to get back into it.

Now if this game was in July and Sanchez wasn't coming off an injury and had a 110 pitch limit Id be fine with him batting, but that wasn't the case.  

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1 hour ago, ballmich said:

 

Sanchez was at 78 pitches and had a 5-0 lead after 5.  The bullpen had been extended by extra innings the night before.  Getting one more inning out of a pitcher who had been doing well through five seems like it would have more benefit than adding to an already big lead.  It didn't work out, but he pulled Sanchez before much damage was done. That seems like reasonable pitcher management.   

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just to close this, my take is that  Anibal has in no way given us any objective evidence *yet* to show that he was likely to be successful starting an inning at 86 pitches. He had lousy endurance last season and has had a truncated spring. (both of which were good reasons to hold his pitch count down in anycase). Maybe he will eventually prove that durability this season, but I would approach that by giving him more pitches in innings he is already in and pitching OK in (say starting at 70 and going to 90+), not bringing him back in at a pitch number that he hadn't given me anything more than a manager's quesitonable optimism as evidence. Thus being the case, in my book pinch hitting for him was a no-brainer. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Not that I disagree with the overall point being made, because I don't, but the Tigers were up 5-0 at that point with 4 innings to go.

I don't know what the odds they would win were after 5 1/2 innings, but I would guess at least a 95% chance to win (EDIT: looked it up - it, coincidentally, was 95.1%), which is pretty damned lethal on its own.  The most likely outcome of a pinch hitter is also an out.  But even assuming a hit, the most common hit is a single, and given 2 outs, forced runners, suppose 2 runs score.

The odds leading 7-0 as opposed to 5-0 after 5 1/2 innings is not that big an improvement in your odds to win.  Maybe 98% or something.

I would also add Sanchez probably had a 10% chance to reach, not 5%.

 

Win probability play log.

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2 hours ago, ballmich said:

I think the bigger issue is going to VerHagan with two runners on and no outs in the 6th.  I don't see why we won't use Lowe in that situation, it's higher leverage, and he's supposed to be one of our best RP.  I don't like this BS about saving J Wilson and Lowe for the 7th and 8th. 

I agree with this.  I think the current bullpen philosophy is to blame for the most part, but Ausmus deserves criticism as well.

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