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lordstanley

4th Annual DRW Playoff Bubble Watch Thread

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Some great chances in OT. Including the Canes hitting both posts on the same shot. Jack not happy about the offsetting penalties.

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2 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Some great chances in OT. Including the Canes hitting both posts on the same shot. Jack not happy about the offsetting penalties.

His guy went down like he was shot, so i'd call it fair. 

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1 minute ago, lordstanley said:

Canes win!

WTF NESN, those were the worst shootout camera angles ever.

I'd double like this, if I could.

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Wings magic number is 4 points. They could pick that up all in one game, Thursday at Boston, if they win there in regulation. 

If the Wings get at least a point tomorrow night vs Philly, then an OT win against Boston would suffice because it would guarantee the Wings the tiebreaker advantage.

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Wings still alive for 2nd place, as Tampa blows a lead and loses in regulation. Tampa 4 up on Detroit but with only 2 games left. If the Wings win all 3 and Tampa gets no more than a point in its final 2 games, the Wings take 2nd.

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One more thing Tuesday's Boston result means: the Wings cannot be eliminated before Saturday. Even if the Wings were to lose Wednesday and Thursday to Philly and Boston respectively, they'd go in to Saturday 2 points behind Boston, each with a game to play. In that case, a Wings win before the shootout and a Boston regulation loss to Ottawa would result in the two teams being tied with 93 points and the Wings winning the tiebreaker thanks to one more ROW.

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  • Matchup | Ideal Result | Impact | Actual Result | Playoff % Effect

  • Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins | CAR Win | High | CAR Win (SO) | +5.8%

  • New York Islanders @ Washington Capitals | WSH Win | Low | NYI Win (OT) | -0.1%

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

  • Before Games: 59.9%
  • After Games: 65.6%
  • Change: +5.8%

 

 

The Wings will clinch the playoffs with a win vs Boston. Can clinch possibly earlier than that, but at the very least they have a one game all-or-nothing chance if things go sideways between now and then.

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8 hours ago, Shinma said:
  • Matchup | Ideal Result | Impact | Actual Result | Playoff % Effect

  • Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins | CAR Win | High | CAR Win (SO) | +5.8%

  • New York Islanders @ Washington Capitals | WSH Win | Low | NYI Win (OT) | -0.1%

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

  • Before Games: 59.9%
  • After Games: 65.6%
  • Change: +5.8%

 

 

The Wings will clinch the playoffs with a win vs Boston. Can clinch possibly earlier than that, but at the very least they have a one game all-or-nothing chance if things go sideways between now and then.

I don't think they can clinch earlier than Thursday. But a ROW at BOS or 2 ROWs in the other games will do it.

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2 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

I don't think they can clinch earlier than Thursday. But a ROW at BOS or 2 ROWs in the other games will do it.

Right, they can't clinch tonight.  Any kind of win tonight against Philly would mean that any type of win against Boston would be enough. If the Wings get  0 or 1 point tonight, the win over the Bruins would need to be in regulation to clinch.

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Here's a bit of an oddity.

In the 16-team East, Philly-Detroit-Boston are tied for 7-8-9th with 91 points. Carolina is in 10th with 86.

But in the 14-team West, Minnesota has already clinched 8th spot with 87 points and won't finish with more than 91 points. 9th place Colorado has only 82 points and 10th place Arizona only has 77 points, which is fewer than the East's 14th place Montreal. 

The West's top 5 of Dallas-St.Louis-Chicago-Anaheim-LA is certainly more formidable than any 5 teams in the East. So the Wings' chance of winning a round or two in the East is easier than it would have been in the West. But as for actually making the playoffs, seems significantly easier in the West this year.

 

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  • Matchup | Ideal Result | Impact | Actual Result | Playoff % Effect

  • Philadelphia Flyers @ Detroit Red Wings | DET Win | MASSIVE | DET Win (REG) | +22.7%

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

  • Before Games: 65.6%
  • After Games: 88.3%
  • Change: +22.7%

 

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19 hours ago, lordstanley said:

Here's a bit of an oddity.

In the 16-team East, Philly-Detroit-Boston are tied for 7-8-9th with 91 points. Carolina is in 10th with 86.

But in the 14-team West, Minnesota has already clinched 8th spot with 87 points and won't finish with more than 91 points. 9th place Colorado has only 82 points and 10th place Arizona only has 77 points, which is fewer than the East's 14th place Montreal. 

The West's top 5 of Dallas-St.Louis-Chicago-Anaheim-LA is certainly more formidable than any 5 teams in the East. So the Wings' chance of winning a round or two in the East is easier than it would have been in the West. But as for actually making the playoffs, seems significantly easier in the West this year.

 

they need to add two more teams to have some balance.      Or - my proposal - just have two 15-team conferences,  no divisions, no more Wild Cards - just 1 vs. 8 and so on.      

 

4 games vs. your own conference = 56 games

2 games vs. the other conference = 30 games 

 

86 game schedule......everyone has the exact same schedule.  

 

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  • Matchup | Ideal Result | Impact | Actual Result | Playoff % Effect

  • Detroit Red Wings @ Boston Bruins | DET Win | MASSIVE | BOS Win (REG) | -12.8%

  • Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers | TOR Win | High | TOR Win (OT) | +1.7%

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

  • Before Games: 85.1%
  • After Games: 74.0%
  • Change: -11.1%

 

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That 74% chance doesn't feel all that comfortable to be honest. 

On the bright side, NYR has no incentive to win tomorrow and actually more incentive to lose.

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So if I understand correctly:

If the wings lose in regulation, they clinch if:

Boston loses in regulation 

or 

philly loses twice, and at least one of the losses is a regulation loss

 

if the wings win in Shootout

boston win in Shootout or Boston loss of any kind, but Boston would move ahead with a reg win or OT win

philly loses at least one game in any way

 

if the wings lose in OT:

boston loss of any kind

one philly reg loss or two philly OT losses

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Yes, Shelton, those are the scenarios.

So the Wings can clinch as early as, say, 3pm. The earliest they can be eliminated is after Philly's game which should get over around 5:30pm. If Boston betters the Wings' result today and Philly matches the Wings' result or betters the Wings' result by 1 pt today, this won't be decided until the NYI-Philly season finale tomorrow afternoon.

The Wings faced something similar the last day of the shortened 2013 season. 3 team race for 2 spots, the Wings had to at least match that day's result of at least 1 of the 2 teams. The Wings won in Dallas to clinch. Minnesota also made it, Columbus was the odd team out.

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