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lordstanley

4th Annual DRW Playoff Bubble Watch Thread

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I meant to post those game highlights in the GDT.

Chicago has been struggling, with only 97 points on the year and 4-5-1 in past 10, but they have come out flying this afternoon. Lead Boston 2-0 after a 19-shot 1st period.

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Bruins lose 6-4.

Wings are 1pt up on Boston. 3 games remaining for each.

Boston has on paper an easier schedule. 3 home games against Carolina, Detroit and Ottawa every other day starting Tuesday. Interestingly the Bruins have a 16-17-5 losing record at home this year.

Wings end the season with 3 games in 4 nights starting Wednesday vs Philly followed by at Boston on Thursday and at NYR on Saturday. 

If the Wings can get 2 points in their game  against Philly, a regulation win over Boston would be enough to clinch.

It's a toss up. Which is better than what I would have said Friday morning.

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Flyers cap off a tremendous 24 hours for the Wings by losing 6-2 to Pittsburgh. They remain tied with Detroit with 91 points; Philly has one extra game left but the Wings have two more wins on the ROW tiebreaker.

Wings have a lot of work left to do but now have clear pathways to the playoffs. Win all 3 of their games in any fashion and they're in. Win 2 of their 3 games as long as one of the wins is over Boston in regulation and they're in. Win 1 of their 3 games as long as one of the wins is in regulation over Boston or Philly and they have a shot.

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  • Matchup | Ideal Result | Impact | Actual Result | Playoff % Effect

  • Boston Bruins @ Chicago Blackhawks | CHI Win | High | CHI Win (REG) | +7.5%

  • Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins | PIT Win | High | PIT Win (REG) | +4.1%

Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances

  • Before Games: 48.8%
  • After Games: 60.4%
  • Change: +11.6%

 

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Only 1 game of any importance tonight, and not a very important one at that. Tampa at NYI.  The Islanders are 2 up on the Wings and they use up their 2 games in hand against the LIghtning tonight and Capitals tomorrow. Unlikely that NYI ends up the odd team out, but with them playing Philly in the final game of the season it would be nice to keep all options alive.

 

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Given the importance of the Bruins game on Thursday, it would almost make sense to send a rested split-squad to Boston a couple of days in advance such as Mrazek, Jurco, and Smith and insert them in place of tired back to backers. I'm joking ... mostly.

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NYI beat Tampa tonight 5-2. So with 3 games remaining for Tampa and Detroit each, the Wings are still alive for 2nd place in the division and with it home ice advantage in the 1st round. 4 points back of Tampa but Tampa owns the tiebreaker. So the Wings would need to win out and the Lightning would need to pick up no more than 1 point in their 3 final games, which are all on the road against NYR, New Jersey and Montreal.

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It took until Game 79, but the Wings have been eliminated from the chase for 1st place in the division. Florida beat Toronto. Most likely Florida will finish 1st, Tampa 2nd and then Boston or Detroit in 3rd.

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So, the wings aren't good. With that out of the way, it sure would be nice to finish third and get to play in the mini bracket with Florida and Tampa as the top two seeds. 

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3 hours ago, Shelton said:

So, the wings aren't good. With that out of the way, it sure would be nice to finish third and get to play in the mini bracket with Florida and Tampa as the top two seeds. 

Yep, they're not good. But yes, might as well enjoy a run to the playoffs and see how far they can go against teams like Florida and Tampa and hope someone knocks out Washington before the conference finals. With Pavel almost assuredly leaving this summer or next, and with some of the prospects not turning out quite as well as expected (wow, what a surprise), no guarantee we'll be seeing playoffs again anytime soon. Mr. Tater must be rubbing his hands with glee over the potential for the Wings to sink into the bottom 10 as soon as next year.

As for this year, I still feel their chances of getting in are less than 50/50. There are scenarios for sure where they can get in without beating Boston on Thursday, but a loss there makes it pretty tough. And a road game on the back end of a back to back against a team that has been resting at home for 48 hours is less than a 50/50 proposition in my view.

 

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By the way, those wondering what happens if only 3 teams from the Atlantic make it while 5 from the Metro make it.  In that case, Washington as the team with the conference's best record would be play the #2 wildcard, likely Philadelphia. The Atlantic winner, let's say Florida, would play the #1 wildcard, likely NYI (could also be Philly or NYR). So there's the possibiity of a 3rd place Detroit playing a Metro team as soon as the 2nd round if NYI were to knock off Florida. Of course Detroit could play a Metro team, Washington, as early as the 1st round if the Wings get in as the #2 wildcard rather than as 3rd in the Atlantic.  

That's why the NHL describes the playoff format as being "largely divisional-based".

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15 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Yep, they're not good. But yes, might as well enjoy a run to the playoffs and see how far they can go against teams like Florida and Tampa and hope someone knocks out Washington before the conference finals. With Pavel almost assuredly leaving this summer or next, and with some of the prospects not turning out quite as well as expected (wow, what a surprise), no guarantee we'll be seeing playoffs again anytime soon. Mr. Tater must be rubbing his hands with glee over the potential for the Wings to sink into the bottom 10 as soon as next year.

As for this year, I still feel their chances of getting in are less than 50/50. There are scenarios for sure where they can get in without beating Boston on Thursday, but a loss there makes it pretty tough. And a road game on the back end of a back to back against a team that has been resting at home for 48 hours is less than a 50/50 proposition in my view.

 

Yes, those percentages don't take into account the schedule issues and I agree that it is probably less than a 50/50 proposition. Of course, none of that really matters with so few games remaining. Just gotta win.

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I would only add that while they aren't good, they also aren't that bad and aren't that different than a number of teams that will make the post-season.

 

Their defensive corps are lousy, and I hope that gets reasonably effectively addressed here in the next 2-3 years.

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Carolina can do the Wings a huge favor by beating the Bruins in regulation tonight.

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To Biggs' point, I think the Wings' record is better than how they have played this year, but also think they're better than they have played this year.

To Shinma's point, a Canes win in regulation and a Wings win tomorrow would mean that even if the Wings were to then lose to Boston they'd still control their own destiny heading into Gane 82. Carolina leads 1-0 after 1.

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5 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

Bruins tied it early in the 3rd and are 6 minutes away from gaining at least a point. 

From a brutal metal mistake by the Canes.

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Jack Edwards thought that was going in! That would have been priceless to hear. OT coming up.  C'mon Canes, win it. If you can win it, at least force it to a shootout.

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