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RedRamage

Would you trade Stafford right now if the price was right?

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Disclaimer: This is NOT another bash Stafford thread. If you just want to bash Stafford, find one of the old threads and do it there. For the purposes of this discussion we're going to agree that Stafford falls somewhere between average and good. And of course, he could move in either direction in the future... becoming a great, even elite QB, or falling off the table and becoming below bad or even horrible.

Okay, this topic was brought up on the sports radio show here in GR this morning. The idea was this: What is a team, like Houston, gave you and offer you couldn't refuse for Stafford. Would you trade him?

Here's the reasoning behind it:

1.) The 2016 season is probably going to be a lost season anyway. New front office and a coaching staff that would need to excel substantially in order to save their jobs.

2.) Stafford is probably at a all time high in value right now. He's controlled for another two years and puts up nice stats numbers. But the team is likely in transition and CJ is likely gone next year, meaning the offense would take a big step back.

So do you sell high on Stafford, or do you think:

1.) The Caldwell crew has a real chance to be good-to-very good in 2016 and could save their jobs for 2017 and beyond.

and/or

2.) Stafford will continue to put up good numbers even without CJ around and we'd be silly to give up on him now.

It boils down to two questions...

First: How good do you think Stafford will be in 2016 and in the next 5 years?

Second: How good of an offer would a team need to make to have you give up Stafford?

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Okay, I should probably add an amendment to this idea: Be reasonable. I mean, anyone is tradeable for the right price, right? No one wants to lose Ziggy, but if a team offered you their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks for the next five years it's be pretty hard to say no, right?

Try to think semi-realistically here. What might a team realistically offer for Stafford?

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I don't think 2016 is likely to be a lost season. Any trade that makes it less likely to win in 2016 wouldn't be worth it to me.

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& replace him with what? No thanks.

Well, that would TBD of course... probably you'd look at drafting a QB and putting in some journey-man QB for the 2016 season. The idea being that we accept 2016 is not going to be the Lions year and that Stafford has likely peaked.

Obviously if you disagree with either of those assumptions, then you won't trade at all. But this isn't a "Get rid of Stafford and put in XXXX so we can win the SB (or even one playoff game) in 2016!!"

Rather this is a "Sell high on Stafford and start the rebuild that some think is coming anyway now rather than in 2017."

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I don't think 2016 is likely to be a lost season. Any trade that makes it less likely to win in 2016 wouldn't be worth it to me.

I agree with the other posters as 2016 should not be a lost season. Their schedule looks pretty easy right now. If they don't win at least 8 games next season, it would be a major disappointment.

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It would all depend on the offer. Not a big fan of this QB class and I think we are ready to win now, so it would be a tough sell for me.

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How many instances of a player like stafford being traded have there been recently?

I'm referring to an established QB who has been at least average with a hint of the potential to be very good, that wasn't pushed out due to a better and younger QB on the roster.

Denver trading cutler to Chicago seems somewhat analogous. None of the guys Denver got with the picks amounted to anything. Orton wasn't all that good (or at least not good enough for to team to win with him).

I guess my point is that I don't recall many instances where a team that traded away their good starting QB had a level of success in the years soon after that as a result of the trade.

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How many instances of a player like stafford being traded have there been recently?

I'm referring to an established QB who has been at least average with a hint of the potential to be very good, that wasn't pushed out due to a better and younger QB on the roster.

Denver trading cutler to Chicago seems somewhat analogous. None of the guys Denver got with the picks amounted to anything. Orton wasn't all that good (or at least not good enough for to team to win with him).

I guess my point is that I don't recall many instances where a team that traded away their good starting QB had a level of success in the years soon after that as a result of the trade.

Cutler also asked to be traded. It's not like Denver was playing the stock market and said we need to trade Cutler since his value is so high.

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Here is a list of a few trades:

2013 sf trades Alex smith to the Chiefs (of course they had kaepernick)

2011 cincy traded Carson Palmer to Oakland (cincy drafted Andy dalton and he was decent in 2011 and is still good now)

2009 cutler to Chicago

2007 falcons traded schaub to Houston (schaub was a backup to vick) Vick got suspended; they went 4-12 with Joey Harrington et al; drafted Matt Ryan the next offseason

Atlanta and cincy weren't hurt too much but they both made up for it striking gold in the draft (Atlanta by being forced to tank and having a franchise QB available to be picked) (cincy by getting a good QB with the 35th overall pick)

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I would trade any player for the right price. I would not trade Stafford right now. I do not want to start over at that position because I like him as a QB.

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Here is a list of a few trades:

2013 sf trades Alex smith to the Chiefs (of course they had kaepernick)

2011 cincy traded Carson Palmer to Oakland (cincy drafted Andy dalton and he was decent in 2011 and is still good now)

2009 cutler to Chicago

2007 falcons traded schaub to Houston (schaub was a backup to vick) Vick got suspended; they went 4-12 with Joey Harrington et al; drafted Matt Ryan the next offseason

Atlanta and cincy weren't hurt too much but they both made up for it striking gold in the draft (Atlanta by being forced to tank and having a franchise QB available to be picked) (cincy by getting a good QB with the 35th overall pick)

Palmer demanded to be traded and retired instead of playing for Cincinnati. Vick was also the franchise QB and no one could predict he would end up being arrested. Alex Smith is the closest example and he wasn't as good as Stafford and they did have a replacement in place.

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I guess if the return included a pick in the top 4 of this draft that you know the lions could use on one of those two top QBs, I would definitely listen. Of course, it would take more than that. But in this scenario you are at least giving yourself a chance with a decent QB prospect with potential to be very good for years to come.

Any other plan for trading stafford would have to include a plan for replacing him with someone competent enough to still give you a chance to win this year.

If this was a 3 win team or something, I would think differently. But to answer the question, of course I would trade him if the price was right, but whatever the price, they need to have a plan to fill that position adequately.

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The question has to be asked too, what are you willing to pay Matt Stafford when it comes time to resign him? There is a good chance that if he hits free agency, you'll end up in a bidding war with another team and all of a sudden be staring down the barrel of (in today's terms) $22-$24 million in season. I don't hate Stafford, but I'm not ready to write that check yet to Stafford. That's why, along with his inconsistencies, I'm alright with shipping Stafford around and testing the market for him.

I've been consistent in saying that I don't dislike or hate Matt Stafford. But I also believe that the new GM should do his due diligence and shop Stafford around to see what kind of offers are out there. If someone responds back to Bob Quinn and says they're willing to offer any of the following deals, I'd probably be ok in pulling the trigger and ultimately drafting a QB.

1. Stafford for 3 1st round picks

2. Stafford for 2 1sts round picks + 2nd + 3rd

3. Stafford for 1st + 2nd + 3rd + a current stop-gap, starting QB (Ex. Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown)

Scenario #3 I'm really unsure about. I don't know that just a single 1st is what I see as adequate value for a pseudo-franchise QB. If Bob Quinn were offered either of the first two scenarios I'd be fine with him pulling the trigger, assuming he has an adequate plan to replace Stafford.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad

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I too would HATE to see us start over again at QB.

That being said, if we could get any of these:

1) 2016 Top 8 pick, two 2nd rounders

2) 2016 first round (outside top 8), 2016 3rd round, 2017 first round

3) Starting QB from any NFL team (minimum 8 starts in 2016), 2016 3rd round, and a 1st rounder (2016 or 2017)

I can't imagine anyone would pay that price, but I think one of the above trade proposals would equal about what Stafford is worth to us.

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I'm definitely ok paying Stafford and we are unlikely to be in a bidding war IMO

Unless we resign him before he hits free agency, why are we unlikely? There are plenty of teams that could need a new QB and could go quite hard after Stafford if he hits the open market. All of a sudden if 2-3-4+ teams are in the market for him, that's going to drive up the price.

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How many good to elite qb reach free agency?

Yea I'm trying to think that of a QB like Stafford who reached free agency. There was Manning coming off injury. Brees also had questionable health.

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Manning had the health issue and Andrew luck.

Brees in 2006 is probably the last one.

Flacco was an RFA when he re-signed with Baltimore.

Kurt Warner was kind of old when he re-signed with Arizona as a UFA.

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