Jump to content

RedRamage

2015 vs. 2016 roster

Recommended Posts

Just for the fun of it, let's look at the roster and give a plus or minus for the 2016 vs. 2015 players. Grades are:

-- = much worse

- = worse

0 = neutral

+ = better

++ = much better

Copy and paste the following and add your grades. Of course, feel free to add commentary if you want.

Catcher - Grade:

2015: Avila

2016: McCann

First - Grade:

2015: Cabrera

2016: Cabrera

Second - Grade:

2015: Kinsler

2016: Kinsler

ShortStop - Grade:

2015: Iglesais

2016: Iglesais

Third - Grade:

2015: Castellanos

2016: Castellanos

LF - Grade:

2015: Cespedes

2016: Upton

CF - Grade:

2015: Gose

2016: Gose

RF - Grade:

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinex

DH - Grade:

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

SP1 - Grade:

2015: Price

2016: Zimmermann

Sp2 - Grade:

2015: Verlander

2016: Verlander

SP3 - Grade:

2015: Sanchez

2016: Sanchez

SP4 - Grade:

2015: Greene

2016: Norris

SP5 - Grade:

2015: Simon

2016: Pelfrey

Closer - Grade:

2015: Soria

2016: Rodriguez

Bench - Grade:

Bullpen - Grade:

Edit to added a section for bench and bullpen

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Catcher - Grade: +

2015: Avila

2016: McCann

I expect McCann as a full time starter to be as good or better than he was last year.

First - Grade: 0

2015: Cabrera

2016: Cabrera

He's aging, but still very dangerous. I don't see a drop off yet.

Second - Grade: 0

2015: Kinsler

2016: Kinsler

It's higher possibility of a age related drop off here, but I'll still go zero.

ShortStop - Grade: -

2015: Iglesais

2016: Iglesais

I think his offense regresses a bit.

Third - Grade: -

2015: Castellanos

2016: Castellanos

Hope I'm wrong here, but I think Nick takes a slight step back.

LF - Grade: +

2015: Cespedes

2016: Upton

Hard to say for sure. Defense might suffer a bit, but I hope offense better.

CF - Grade: 0

2015: Gose

2016: Gose

RF - Grade: +

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

I think he continues to improve, if modestly.

DH - Grade: -

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

Age is catching up for Victor

SP1 - Grade: -

2015: Price

2016: Zimmermann

Price was just flat out awesome last year.

Sp2 - Grade: ++

2015: Verlander

2016: Verlander

Verlander will never be the great pitcher he was in the past, but he'll be much better than he was last year.

SP3 - Grade: +

2015: Sanchez

2016: Sanchez

I expect to see Sanchez rebound from a bit of a down year last year.

SP4 - Grade: ++

2015: Greene

2016: Norris

Greene started fantastic, but then dropped off hard.

SP5 - Grade: -

2015: Simon

2016: Pelfrey

Simon had his down moments, but he also did some good work for a while. I'm not high on Pelfrey at all.

Closer - Grade: 0

2015: Soria

2016: Rodriguez

This one was hard for me. I guess I don't know enough about KRod. I'll just grade it 0.

Over all in my estimation, a plus 2.

In hindsight, I suppose we should add a section for Bench and Bullpen as well, so:

Bullpen - Grade: +

Bench - Grade: 0

So make it an +3 total.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Catcher + (including both catchers)

1B +

2B 0

3B +

SS 0

LF +

CF + (based on Maybin over Gose)

RF 0

DH +

JV ++ (relative to JV and others)

Sanchez + (relative to Sanchez and others)

Norris + (relative to Greene and the others)

Zimmermann 0 (relative to price/Norris)

Pelfrey 0 (relative to Simon)

Bullpen ++ (including everyone)

Gose v Rajai +

Rest of bench 0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My scoring is right in line with Shelton. 1B and DH are both + as both fought through injuries again most of the year. I think Nick has a breakout year at 3B. +12 overall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really the only two that matter:

Starting Pitching = 0

Bullpen = +++++++

If these dudes perform, I promise you we win most of the games we lost last year. If someone would bother to just make a cursory look at how many games were lost because of the bullpen vs. the starters, you'll realize that we could have easily won the division if we had a slightly better than average bullpen.

I think we have that this year, and I say we win lots of games because of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If someone would bother to just make a cursory look at how many games were lost because of the bullpen vs. the starters, you'll realize that we could have easily won the division if we had a slightly better than average bullpen.

Just for the fun of it... I'll do that. Here's my off the cuff, dirty criteria:

If the SP had a quality start (6 IP, 3 or less runs) AND the bullpen had non-quality relief effort (more runs than 1/2 of IP (rounding to nearest inning)), then it's a bullpen loss.

If the SP didn't have a quality start (more than 4 runs and/or less than 6 IP) and the bullpen had a quality relief effort (fewer runs than 1/2 of IP) then the loss is on the starter.

If both had quality effort, then we'll blame the offense/defense.

If neither had quality efforts, then it's a team pitching loss.

The results are kinda interesting:

Starting Pitcher losses: 34

Relief Pitcher losses: 7

Offense/Defense losses: 18

Team Pitching losses: 28

So only 7 times did we get a quality start from the pitching but then saw the bullpen give up more earned runs than 1/2 * number of innings pitched.

Now I fully admit that these are really rough numbers and there's lots and lots of variables, but you did say "cursory." In my opinion the biggest variable here could be the idea that the bullpen was so bad that Ausmus was reluctant to pull a starter too early even if he showed signs of trouble. So, let's take half of the 'team pitching losses' and add them to the relief pitcher's area.

This still only makes it 21 to 34... 21 times where the starter did his job but the bullpen failed vs. 34 times the starters failed and the bullpen did their job.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Really the only two that matter:

Starting Pitching = 0

Bullpen = +++++++

If these dudes perform, I promise you we win most of the games we lost last year. If someone would bother to just make a cursory look at how many games were lost because of the bullpen vs. the starters, you'll realize that we could have easily won the division if we had a slightly better than average bullpen.

I think we have that this year, and I say we win lots of games because of it.

I agree that I think that those are the areas of most concern. I guess I disagree with the grading. I think that both groups have improved. I'm not sure that I see such a drastic improvement in the bullpen. If AWilson and Hardy can be used in less pressure situations and aren't pressed into high leverage out of necessity, that'll be a good thing.

I still have my worries about VMartinez. If he rebounds, I think the offense will be fine (health as caveat).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-- = much worse

- = worse

0 = neutral

+ = better

++ = much better

Copy and paste the following and add your grades. Of course, feel free to add commentary if you want.

Catcher - Grade: + (Salty over Avila makes it a plus)

2015: Avila

2016: McCann/Salty

First - Grade: 0 (if healthy is a +, not assuming health)

2015: Cabrera

2016: Cabrera

Second - Grade: - (hard to repeat 2015)

2015: Kinsler

2016: Kinsler

ShortStop - Grade: + (should be more solid defensively, hopefully healthier too)

2015: Iglesais

2016: Iglesais

Third - Grade: + (2nd half performance for a young kid makes me believe)

2015: Castellanos

2016: Castellanos

LF - Grade: - (hard to match Cespedes' 2015)

2015: Cespedes

2016: Upton

CF - Grade: + (having 2 CFs to legit platoon for a whole season makes this a plus)

2015: Gose

2016: Gose/Maybin

RF - Grade: - (hard to repeat 2015)

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

DH - Grade: ++ (can't be any worse)

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

SP1 - Grade: -- (Price was CY caliber)

2015: Price

2016: Zimmermann

Sp2 - Grade: +

2015: Verlander

2016: Verlander

SP3 - Grade: +

2015: Sanchez

2016: Sanchez

SP4 - Grade: ++

2015: Greene

2016: Norris

SP5 - Grade: 0

2015: Simon

2016: Pelfrey

Closer - Grade: 0

2015: Soria

2016: Rodriguez

Bench - Grade: 0 (already factored this in at C/CF)

Bullpen - Grade: ++ (can't get any worse)

So I have +7 units, whatever that translates to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So I have +7 units, whatever that translates to.

Take you final number of units (plus or minus) then:

Step 1: Divide by pi*r^2.

Step 2: Plug the resulting value in as the slope in this equation: y = m*x+12.3 and find your y-intercept.

Step 3: Next create a rectangle with that value as the length of one side, then use your original number as the length of the opposite side.

Step 4: Draw a diagonal line from one corner of the rectangle to the other. Find the slope of this line.

Step 5: Multiply by pi and divide by 2.5.

Step 6: Post your result.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Catcher - Grade: +

2015: Avila

2016: McCann

First - Grade: 0

2015: Cabrera

2016: Cabrera

Second - Grade: 0

2015: Kinsler

2016: Kinsler

ShortStop - Grade: -

2015: Iglesais

2016: Iglesais

Third - Grade: 0

2015: Castellanos

2016: Castellanos

LF - Grade: -

2015: Cespedes

2016: Upton

CF - Grade: +

2015: Gose

2016: Gose/Maybin

RF - Grade: 0

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

DH - Grade: --

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

SP1 - Grade: -

2015: Price

2016: Zimmermann

Sp2 - Grade: 0

2015: Verlander

2016: Verlander

SP3 - Grade: -

2015: Sanchez

2016: Sanchez

SP4 - Grade: +

2015: Greene

2016: Norris

SP5 - Grade: -

2015: Simon

2016: Pelfrey

Closer - Grade: ++

2015: Soria

2016: Rodriguez

Bench - Grade: +

Bullpen - Grade: ++

+1 total, but I think we will be better than that once the season starts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Take you final number of units (plus or minus) then:

Step 1: Divide by pi*r^2.

Step 2: Plug the resulting value in as the slope in this equation: y = m*x+12.3 and find your y-intercept.

Step 3: Next create a rectangle with that value as the length of one side, then use your original number as the length of the opposite side.

Step 4: Draw a diagonal line from one corner of the rectangle to the other. Find the slope of this line.

Step 5: Multiply by pi and divide by 2.5.

Step 6: Post your result.

I got zucchini.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Catcher - Grade: 0/+

2015: Avila/ McCann

2016: McCann/ Saltalamacchia

I'm grading both players, and giving a neutral to plus for 2016. Salty is not a good defensive catcher. But I think overall, 2016 will grade out slightly higher, considering both defensive and offensive, with the expectation that Salty will also be used some at DH and a lot as a pinch-hitter. First glance is we might get some better hitting at Catcher but worse catching (overall improvement expected from McCann/ and Salty a plus on O; but a big drop going from Avila to Salty on defense...).

First - Grade: +

2015: Cabrera

2016: Cabrera

Hoping for a less-injured 2016 Cabrera which = a slight plus over last year's #'s. He put up good numbers in 2015 so it's hard to give a ++.

Second - Grade: 0/-

2015: Kinsler

2016: Kinsler

Same, or a year of aging that reduces his numbers some. No great drop off expected though.

ShortStop - Grade: +

2015: Iglesias

2016: Iglesias

I expect more out of him this year. Just a slight improvement in some areas. But that's all we need, or should expect to get. I'd be perfectly fine with slight improvements in health, focus, less mental errors, consistently fielding routine grounders, working on improving his offensive game.

Third - Grade: +

2015: Castellanos

2016: Castellanos

Same here. A bunch of slight improvements would be fine. Both offensively and defensively.

LF - Grade: 0/+

2015: Cespedes

2016: Upton

Not certain how to grade this spot. I'd like to see Upton break out a bit, and maybe even flourish in the #2 spot with Miggy behind him. But I'll just go conservative and stay neutral to slight plus.

CF - Grade: 0/+

2015: Gose/ Davis

2016: Maybin/ Gose

I expect near-0 at-bats against LH'ers for Gose (which will be a big improvement), and better fielding between the two 2016 CF'ers, and some other slight overall improvements between these two. It might just add up to neutral. But personally, I think overall, it'll actually be some slight improvement this year. Again I'll go conservative and say 0 to +.

RF - Grade: 0

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

Same.

DH - Grade: +/ ++

2015: Martinez

2016: Martinez

Nowhere to go but up, over last year. Difference between + and ++ is how much better Victor actually is this year. Even if he's much better, age could still slow him down some. Salty also may have a DH impact...

SP1 - Grade: 0 to +/-

2015: Price (pre-trade)/ JV (late-season)

2016: JV

I'm going to do this a bit differently. Price pre-trade deadline and JV post-trade deadline = one ace pitcher. So JV is replacing 1st half Price and 2nd half JV. I'm calling this basically neutral. Could be a bit better, could be a bit worse. But hoping JV will stay in this ballpark area.

Sp2 - Grade: ++

2015: 1st half JV (replacement crap)/ 2nd half replacement Price (crap).

2016: Zimmermann

If you look at it this way, we had crap replacement pitchers for an injured JV in the 1st half, and crap replacement pitchesrs for Price in the 2nd half. Who is replacing those starts? Zimmerman. HUGE ++.

SP3 - Grade: +

2015: Sanchez

2016: Sanchez

Gotta hope 2016 Sanchez is better than 2015 Sanchez. If he can get back to 2010-14 Sanchez we're good. Not even Cy Young candidate Sanchez either, just better than last year. I think we get a slight plus on a Sanchez comeback...

SP4 - Grade: +

2015: Greene

2016: Norris

Greene and then his replacements were horrid last year, so this should be a plus. I'm almost tempted to put a double plus here, just not certain yet what we can expect out of Norris in his 2nd year.

SP5 - Grade: 0/+

2015: Simon

2016: Pelfrey

In the end I don't think Pelfrey turns out much better than Simon. But I'll give the scouts the benefit of the doubt: neutral to maybe a slight plus.

2016 Starting pitching depth versus 2015 (+). This year it's Greene/ Fulmer/ Boyd/ Farmer/ etc. Last year it was Lobstein/ Farmer/ Ryan. I'm much more comfortable this year if we are going to a 6th starter (Anibel Sanchez/ Norris innings-limts).

Bullpen - Grade: +/++.

I'm going with both full bullpen, and depth here. I think we're better off in both cases. Instead of putting a definite ++ here, I'll just be conservative and say it'll be improved, somewhere between + and ++.

Bench - not consequential enough for me to grade.

Overall, I think there's very slight/ plus improvements at 1B and DH (health), SS, 3B and CF, and pretty much neutral elsewhere; and a decent plus on offense overall (10% more runs scored?). Defense should get a slight improvement overall as well, but is in the neutral to slight plus range.

A major improvement at #2 starter spot (Zimmermann over 1st-half-JV/ 2nd half-Price Black Hole), and slight improvements #3-5 starters. #1 spot (JV versus 1st half Price and 2nd half JV) is a bit of an unknown. But a big plus to double-plus improvement in Bullpen, bullpen depth, and #6 starter depth.

I hope that puts us at about 90-ish or so wins.

Edited by 84 Lives!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...

LF - Grade: - (hard to match Cespedes' 2015)

2015: Cespedes

2016: Upton

...

But remember, Ces was with us only part of the year, and he put up HUGE #'s with the Mets.

With us, it was 422 PA's with a .323 OBP and .506 SP = .829 OPS, or 2.9 O-War. He put up 0.8 D-War with us last year. And then it was Collins and Davis, forcing either Gose or Collins to face some LH'ers (both are atrocious against LH'ers).

This year, it's a full year of Upton, who put up 4.4 WAR last year. And I think he gets a jump on offense this year when he's put in front of Miggy.

That looks like a neutral to slight plus overall in LF this year.

You can't count Cespedes full year stats because he was with us only until the trade deadline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Take you final number of units (plus or minus) then:

Step 1: Divide by pi*r^2.

Step 2: Plug the resulting value in as the slope in this equation: y = m*x+12.3 and find your y-intercept.

Step 3: Next create a rectangle with that value as the length of one side, then use your original number as the length of the opposite side.

Step 4: Draw a diagonal line from one corner of the rectangle to the other. Find the slope of this line.

Step 5: Multiply by pi and divide by 2.5.

Step 6: Post your result.

1. Can't do, you didn't define r.

2. Y-intercept is independent of the slope so I can skip step 1 and proceed. It is 12.3.

3. Orientation is undefined, but will still proceed.

4. Slope is +/- 12.3/7, or +/- 7/12.3.

5. Done

6. Result is +/- 2.2 or +/- 0.7 units, whatever that translates to. Further research indicates it has something to do with zucchini.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But remember, Ces was with us only part of the year, and he put up HUGE #'s with the Mets.

With us, it was 422 PA's with a .323 OBP and .506 SP = .829 OPS, or 2.9 O-War. He put up 0.8 D-War with us last year. And then it was Collins and Davis, forcing either Gose or Collins to face some LH'ers (both are atrocious against LH'ers).

This year, it's a full year of Upton, who put up 4.4 WAR last year. And I think he gets a jump on offense this year when he's put in front of Miggy.

That looks like a neutral to slight plus overall in LF this year.

You can't count Cespedes full year stats because he was with us only until the trade deadline.

I considered that, but I'm not banking on Upton getting to a full 4 WAR. And I think the 2 months of Davis/Collins was > 0 WAR so it's >4 WAR for comparison.

Maybe it's a half minus, which is within the polling uncertainty and therefore basically the same thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of the big unit. I had a nice exchange with Eric Cioe over text yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Tigers will win 90 games in 2016. 16 units gain.

I would like that. I have them at 88-89 so far, but I have not done a ton of home work on it yet and that is accounting for V-Mart not to finish the season, but counting on someone to pick up the slack (It will not be much IMO this year. Victor is going to have a rough year IMO)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Speaking of the big unit. I had a nice exchange with Eric Cioe over text yesterday.

Did he tell you all about his mustache?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1. Can't do, you didn't define r.

2. Y-intercept is independent of the slope so I can skip step 1 and proceed. It is 12.3.

That was a test... you passed.

3. Orientation is undefined, but will still proceed.

4. Slope is +/- 12.3/7, or +/- 7/12.3.

5. Done

6. Result is +/- 2.2 or +/- 0.7 units, whatever that translates to. Further research indicates it has something to do with zucchini.

Step 7, as you seem to have discovered is subtract the absolute value of the second number from the absolute value of the first, and then buy that number of average sized zucchinis. Weight the resulting zucchinis (partial zucchinis' included) in grams.

Step 8, divide by 40.

If you're first number in step 6 was larger than the second, then the final result is the expected additional wins this year. If the first number in step 6 was smaller than the second, the final result is the expected additional loses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very similar to Shelton just did SP differently

Catcher +

1B +

2B 0

3B +

SS -

LF +

CF +

RF 0

DH +

JV - vs price

Zimmermann+ vs JV

Sanchez +

Norris +

Pelfrey 0

Bullpen ++

bench +

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn, the Tigers had 39 total games started by these pitchers last year:

Lobstein

Boyd

Wolf

Ryan

Farmer

The best era for any of them as a starter was 5.28 for Ryan. The others were all above 6.

We also had 81 starters innings from Shane Greene at an era of 6.72.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Damn, the Tigers had 39 total games started by these pitchers last year:

Lobstein

Boyd

Wolf

Ryan

Farmer

The best era for any of them as a starter was 5.28 for Ryan. The others were all above 6.

We also had 81 starters innings from Shane Greene at an era of 6.72.

So, it wasn't just the bullpen then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×