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Nastradamus

Offseason thread 2016

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WHile Suh wasn't our only loss, our run D was HISTORICALLY good. I don't think it would be there with Levy,Ngata and Fairley. I'll just say that

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If I am paying someone ~20 million a year, I would expect that player would make an impact in the total points. Yes.

Yes he would, but showing total number of points from one year to the next doesn't show the impact an individual player made. Too many other variables!

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Yes he would, but showing total number of points from one year to the next doesn't show the impact an individual player made. Too many other variables!

There is no single thing that will have any statistical significance given the sample size. However, when you consider every aspect, namely, the defense was not good with him 4/5 years. Miami's defense was not good with him. And most teams with high salary DTs are not good, I would call that pretty convincing.

Surely if you replace Suh's name with Stafford's name this faulty logic of "one player can't change a team" wouldn't fly. I don't get the irrational Suh love.

Edit: The point here is that when a player is making that much % of the cap, he better be able impact the team as one player.

Edited by hardyaf

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There is no single thing that will have any statistical significance given the sample size. However, when you consider every aspect, namely, the defense was not good with him 4/5 years. Miami's defense was not good with him. And most teams with high salary DTs are not good, I would call that pretty convincing.

Surely if you replace Suh's name with Stafford's name this faulty logic of "one player can't change a team" wouldn't fly. I don't get the irrational Suh love..

Judging a DT by the points allowed by his team makes about as much sense as judging a hitter by how many runs his team scores.

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I find it very hard to believe Suh had no or even negligible impact on points allowed.

Lol. This. Especially since we continually improved defensively throughout his time here

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There is no single thing that will have any statistical significance given the sample size. However, when you consider every aspect, namely, the defense was not good with him 4/5 years. Miami's defense was not good with him. And most teams with high salary DTs are not good, I would call that pretty convincing.

Surely if you replace Suh's name with Stafford's name this faulty logic of "one player can't change a team" wouldn't fly. I don't get the irrational Suh love.

Edit: The point here is that when a player is making that much % of the cap, he better be able impact the team as one player.

NOpe, its terrible logic with Stafford too, as I mentioned with ROdgers earlier

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Lol. This. Especially since we continually improved defensively throughout his time here

Except from 2010 to 2011. When they got worse. And 2011 to 2012. When they got worse. But apart from that, they definitely improved throughout his time here.

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Except from 2010 to 2011. When they got worse. And 2011 to 2012. When they got worse. But apart from that, they definitely improved throughout his time here.

32nd ,23rd,23rd,16th,13th,2nd. That's an overall positive trend I'd suggest. Points don't always tell the whole story. Short fields, D/ST TDs etc. play a big part.

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32nd ,23rd,23rd,16th,13th,2nd. That's an overall positive trend I'd suggest. Points don't always tell the whole story. Short fields, D/ST TDs etc. play a big part.

I used points to do it quickly. While points are flawed, using yards is a bad way to judge a defense. This has been shown time and time again.

Looked it up, if you want to use DVOA, they went from worst in the league in 2008 (obviously) to 3rd in 2014, with wild fluctuations in between. 2015 has them middle of the back which is about where they were in 2013, and better than they were in 2012.

Edited by hardyaf

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The argument, to me, is not a particularly instructive one because the other 10 guys in aggregate have a much bigger impact than Suh.

I agree with this whole heartedly. Which is why a DT can't live up to a salary that is $19 million a year.

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Honestly, I think if you have to go back 12 years to Warren Sapp (before the NFL was even this pass happy), it kind of proves my point. And that's even assuming Suh is that good. The problem is, if you want the 130 point reduction you think Suh brings (I think that math checks out, forgive me if I am off), you have to take $20million out of somewhere else in the team, since the lions were at the salary cap. Obviously you are removing N'gata, but that leaves you $10 million short I believe. Good bye any depth you had, or good bye role player.

Not to mention I would love to see some reasoning how Suh, or even Warren Sapp is worth 130 points over replacement player.

FWIW, I agree about Donald, and it hurts even more because no one besides Mayhew though Ebron was the right pick. I remember laughing when they made that pick. But that largely is why Mayhew is fired. IMO it's hard to see a world where Donald is here and Mayhew doesn't have a job still.

Edit: I realize you obviously didn't look up all the DTs and come to the Warren Sapp conclusion. That may not be a valid point by me.

I do agree with you that the Dolphins are not going to succeed with Suh making 13% of the cap. I also agree that the Lions are better off in the long run not having Suh at 13% of the cap. But I would not have cried if he did sign a monster deal with Detroit.

At any rate, Mayhew was a damned fool - if he was not certain Suh was locked down - not to pick Aaron Donald. I have no doubt that with the crushing DL this defense was built around, the 2015 Lions would be a playoff team.

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I'd give Donald Suh's contract to come here right now. Call me crazy

In the end, I think using Suh's position to define him is silly. In general, sure, positions are more valuable than other positions. Nobody would argue that. Suh is not just a DT though. Suh could easily retire being considered a top 5 player all time at his position. I think he has a huge positive impact on both our run D and pass rush. I see a team that saw huge improvements from guys like Slay and Ansah, had Taylor seamlessly replace Johnson and dropped 21 spots in the rankings defensively(8 lower than 2013). Keep in mind, Nick Fairley played 8 games and had 1 sack last year. Down Levy sure, but between getting Tulloch back(still effective vs the run) and improved play from Ansah and Slay, you pretty well to cancel that out. Its hard for me to look at all that and think Suh didn't make a huge impact on our D.

Not sure if it will work out in Miami, though they were better the 2nd half of the season

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.... Nobody would argue that. Suh is not just a DT though....

I guess I don't know what this means - does he cover kick-offs, take plays at TE or RB on the goal line? Drop in to coverage on passing downs? Seems to me he is exactly a DT. He's not bringing anything as anything but a DT. I don't see how being a good DT make you 'more' than a DT if that is still all you are doing.

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Suh wasn't a traditional dt in the "run stopper/space filler mode" that they are usually. He could do that AND get to the passer. He was a top defensive lineman, not just defensive tackle.

Him paired with an improving ziggy ansah would have made the lions defense great, imo. Instead of merely pretty good. Its a damn shame mayhew botched the cap so bad.

Ugh. Now I'm mad at mayhew again.

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Suh wasn't a traditional dt in the "run stopper/space filler mode" that they are usually. He could do that AND get to the passer. He was a top defensive lineman, not just defensive tackle.

Him paired with an improving ziggy ansah would have made the lions defense great, imo. Instead of merely pretty good. Its a damn shame mayhew botched the cap so bad.

Ugh. Now I'm mad at mayhew again.

Yeah, it would have been nice if they had been able to manage his contract better to keep him, but I'm think Suh was also dead set on pushing the boundaries for a DT payday. Not going to fault the Lions for not going there any more than the Tigers for Price or Scherzer.

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Yeah, it would have been nice if they had been able to manage his contract better to keep him, but I'm think Suh was also dead set on pushing the boundaries for a DT payday. Not going to fault the Lions for not going there any more than the Tigers for Price or Scherzer.

Agreed and I really don't think Suh was coming back to Detroit no matter what, but he could have been here one more season due to the franchise tag.

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Yeah, it would have been nice if they had been able to manage his contract better to keep him, but I'm think Suh was also dead set on pushing the boundaries for a DT payday. Not going to fault the Lions for not going there any more than the Tigers for Price or Scherzer.

The NFL has a built in mechanism to make sure guys like suh don't make the open market: the franchise tag. But the lions so****ed up the salary situation that they couldn't use it on him.

Again: mayhew's biggest failure in a long line of them.

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The NFL has a built in mechanism to make sure guys like suh don't make the open market: the franchise tag. But the lions so****ed up the salary situation that they couldn't use it on him.

Again: mayhew's biggest failure in a long line of them.

If you wanted to ding Mayhew's record for this one, I'd get it, but its not one of his bigger mistakes IMO. Yes, it would have been nice to not restructure him, but the old rookie scale screwed us and he had a fan base demanding wins ASAP. I'm not sure it was the wisest long term decision, but he probably gets fired 2 years ago if he doesn't do it. Tough call.

His 3 biggest failures IMO

1. Donald. Unquestionably

2. Legarrette Blount/Mikel Leshoure - I see this as one move. He took Tim Toone(who?) with I believe the last pick of the draft, or close, when Blount was viewed as a highly talented player who was falling for character reasons. I get passing on guys like that, but not in the late 7th. Especially when the next year you take a different, less talented, troubled power back and spend a 3rd and 4th to do it.

3. Probably Titus over Randall Cobb. I mention Cobb specifically because I had him as the 20th best player in that draft.

HM - Letting Avril walk, which you could also choose to list as paying Calvin over Avril.

Any one of those moves could have arguably saved his job IMO. Suh too probably, but again, tough situation.

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The Pettigrew pick was an epic blunder too. We needed talent at literally every position on the field except probably Kicker with Hanson and Left Tackle with Backus. We could have had Alex Mack, Ray Maualuga, Vontae Davis, Clay Matthews, Jarius Byrd. I remember at the time wanting one of Michael Oher (bust), Peria Jerry (bust), Louis Delmas (solid for a while), Davis, Mack or Maualuga and instead we picked a blocking Tight End with terrible hands.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad

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The NFL has a built in mechanism to make sure guys like suh don't make the open market: the franchise tag. But the lions so****ed up the salary situation that they couldn't use it on him.

Again: mayhew's biggest failure in a long line of them.

Mayhew wasn't in charge of the cap, that was Lewand's job.

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