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Nastradamus

Offseason thread 2016

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We will disagree on that. The LB's are more crucial than D lineman IMO. Feel free to yell at me about it, but I do not feel strongly enough about it to waste me time right now bolstering my point.

Everyone's entitled to an opinion. I doubt a single NFL GM agrees considering the pay scale.

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Maybe Warren Sapp?

I'm not sure those stats you used are going to tell the whole story, but just using those stats you have an average points surrendered of 370 for 2011-2014 seasons. Had the Lions given up only 370 points versus 400 this season, that would have been the difference between being the 23rd ranked defense and the 16th. That kind of difference shows up in the W-L column.

A better question is how much did the loss of Suh (or an adequate replacement like Aaron Donald) have to do with the defense giving up 118 more points in 2015?

There were 12 teams that gave up fewer than 330 points this season. Eleven of them made the playoffs (Jets excepted). If the Lions could have performed anywhere close to what they did last season, they would have been a playoff team.

I agree if the defense had been better we would have been better. That seems logical. I disagree that Suh would have made us better. I think he would have made us worse based on what we would have to lose to fit him in. For a marginal position. Aaron Donald is a different animal because he is on his rookie deal. My point is you don't pay DTs big money, because they can't live up to that value based on position.

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SUh got top end DL money, and he's an elite DL. Dl is one of the most important and impactful positions in the NFL today IMO. I don't agree with any of what you're saying. Look at the drop our D took without him for the evidence. 25 mil for a guard is nothing near the market

Ok, and yet Miami's defense was still god awful.

8th worst total defense, 5th worst vs the run. So it seems that a dominant DT can't just have a scheme built around him and take over a game. The position is not that impactful. Suh is definitely a great player, but a DT does not a team make, or close to it. The Lions lost Levy and basically their entire non Ansah D-Line from last year, it's no wonder they went downhill as a defense, it certainly wasn't all Suh.

Tbh, I don't feel the difference between Suh and healthy/2nd half of the season Ngata was nearly enough to be worth anything close to the money he got. DT is not a position where you can spend that much money. I don't think is is nearly as impactful as you suggest. If you don't have other good players on the line, you just double team Suh and run all over them, which is what teams did to the Dolphins all year. It probably would have happened in Detroit too if he was playing next to Gabe Wright and Darryl Tapp or whoever. It was only Ansah, Ngata, and Taylor (!?) all playing well at the same time (+Reid not being awful) that started to make the Lions D-Line look good.

Nobody builds a scheme around a guard. You can build a defensive scheme around a dominant DT.

Completely disagree that you can build a defensive scheme around one player, especially a DT

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I agree if the defense had been better we would have been better. That seems logical. I disagree that Suh would have made us better. I think he would have made us worse based on what we would have to lose to fit him in. For a marginal position. Aaron Donald is a different animal because he is on his rookie deal. My point is you don't pay DTs big money, because they can't live up to that value based on position.

I think this team, with Suh (on a monster deal), and with Jim Bob at OC, would have won the division, and would likely win a playoff game in the wild-card round. From there, who knows. That would have made the monster deal worth it to me, especially knowing that CJ's deal is coming off the books soon and Ansah is still cheap.

That said, yes, I'd rather spend defensive money on a dominant edge rusher, but since Ansah is still cheap I would have been OK paying Suh.

Finally, this conversation is irrelevant if Mayhew would have either taken the best player available or filled his biggest foreseeable need in 2014; both avenues led to Aaron Donald. This is why I'm not up in arms about Caldwell staying, since I place this season largely on Mayhew.

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Completely disagree that you can build a defensive scheme around one player, especially a DT

Ask any offensive coach if they gameplan around Suh.

I went to the Dolphins-Redskins game week 1. The Redskins did not even try to run toward Suh until the third quarter. He literally shut down half of the field.

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Ask any offensive coach if they gameplan around Suh.

I went to the Dolphins-Redskins game week 1. The Redskins did not even try to run toward Suh until the third quarter. He literally shut down half of the field.

I would hope they gameplan around Suh. It would be illogical not to. That is not proof that Suh is worth ~19 million a year. That is QB money. For a DT.

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I think this team, with Suh (on a monster deal), and with Jim Bob at OC, would have won the division, and would likely win a playoff game in the wild-card round. From there, who knows. That would have made the monster deal worth it to me, especially knowing that CJ's deal is coming off the books soon and Ansah is still cheap.

That said, yes, I'd rather spend defensive money on a dominant edge rusher, but since Ansah is still cheap I would have been OK paying Suh.

Finally, this conversation is irrelevant if Mayhew would have either taken the best player available or filled his biggest foreseeable need in 2014; both avenues led to Aaron Donald. This is why I'm not up in arms about Caldwell staying, since I place this season largely on Mayhew.

Your premise is impossible to refute because it's how you feel. That's like me saying, I feel that if the dolphins had spent that money on Jeremy Maclin and Brian Baluga, they would have won the Superbowl. The numbers say spending that much money on a DT doesn't work. And all of those high paid DTs (except 1) still make even less than Suh.

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Ok, and yet Miami's defense was still god awful.

8th worst total defense, 5th worst vs the run. So it seems that a dominant DT can't just have a scheme built around him and take over a game. The position is not that impactful. Suh is definitely a great player, but a DT does not a team make, or close to it. The Lions lost Levy and basically their entire non Ansah D-Line from last year, it's no wonder they went downhill as a defense, it certainly wasn't all Suh.

Tbh, I don't feel the difference between Suh and healthy/2nd half of the season Ngata was nearly enough to be worth anything close to the money he got. DT is not a position where you can spend that much money. I don't think is is nearly as impactful as you suggest. If you don't have other good players on the line, you just double team Suh and run all over them, which is what teams did to the Dolphins all year. It probably would have happened in Detroit too if he was playing next to Gabe Wright and Darryl Tapp or whoever. It was only Ansah, Ngata, and Taylor (!?) all playing well at the same time (+Reid not being awful) that started to make the Lions D-Line look good.

Completely disagree that you can build a defensive scheme around one player, especially a DT

So you're criticizing Suh because a scheme can't be built around him(which it was here fwiw) and then later saying you can't build a scheme around any one player? Ok.....

Other than Watt, who might be the best defensive player of all time, any one player can be part of a bad unit no matter how well they play.

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So you're criticizing Suh because a scheme can't be built around him(which it was here fwiw) and then later saying you can't build a scheme around any one player? Ok.....

Other than Watt, who might be the best defensive player of all time, any one player can be part of a bad unit no matter how well they play.

I think the issue here, is in Suh's 5 season here, the defense had 1 year where they were a top 10 defense. If Suh was a truly dominant player, I would expect that to be better. I really like Suh, and was sad to see him go. However, he simply does not play a position that can routinely dominate a game. It's too easy to scheme around him.

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I think this team, with Suh (on a monster deal), and with Jim Bob at OC, would have won the division, and would likely win a playoff game in the wild-card round. From there, who knows. That would have made the monster deal worth it to me, especially knowing that CJ's deal is coming off the books soon and Ansah is still cheap.

That said, yes, I'd rather spend defensive money on a dominant edge rusher, but since Ansah is still cheap I would have been OK paying Suh.

Finally, this conversation is irrelevant if Mayhew would have either taken the best player available or filled his biggest foreseeable need in 2014; both avenues led to Aaron Donald. This is why I'm not up in arms about Caldwell staying, since I place this season largely on Mayhew.

Hard to argue this IMO. SHould have consiered cutting Calvin to do it it seems.

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I think the issue here, is in Suh's 5 season here, the defense had 1 year where they were a top 10 defense. If Suh was a truly dominant player, I would expect that to be better. I really like Suh, and was sad to see him go. However, he simply does not play a position that can routinely dominate a game. It's too easy to scheme around him.

Being schemed around is incredibly valuable and considering he lead the league for DTs in tackles and sacks during his time here, I'd say he still managed to get involved in the action.

This isn't the NBA

Edited by Nastradamus

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Being schemed around is incredibly valuable and considering he lead the league for DTs in tackles and sacks during his time here, I'd say he still managed to get involved in the action.

This isn't the NBA

I'm not arguing he is a really good DT. I'm saying who cares that he led the league for DTs. It's like a kicker who leads the league in PAT %. It's nice, but I'm not paying him 20 million a year for that skill. Being the best at something does not mean it has value. If you have the best DT in the game, and you struggle to be a top 15 Defense 4 out of 5 years, something is wrong.

I guess you could argue the rest of the defense was that bad. But the production this season was right in line with 80% of the seasons we got when we had the best DT in the game. And the team he went to had one of the worst defenses in the NFL. And most highly paid DTs play for bad teams. Color me not impressed.

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I've never seen one player cause a top 10 D. Maybe not even 2-3.

Then why pay one 15-20% of your cap?

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Your premise is impossible to refute because it's how you feel. That's like me saying, I feel that if the dolphins had spent that money on Jeremy Maclin and Brian Baluga, they would have won the Superbowl. The numbers say spending that much money on a DT doesn't work. And all of those high paid DTs (except 1) still make even less than Suh.

That's not a fair assessment of my argument. It is not "how I feel". I posted data - that you did not cite - to the effect that even if this year's Lions defense had given up 50 more points than it did last year (rather than 118), the team would have been within the top twelve defenses in points allowed - eleven of which are in the playoffs. If you are going to lecture me about "what the data say," you could try referring to the data I use - or even provide data of your own.

Maybe Suh is no better than a replacement player and last year was a fluke. "I believe" Suh is Pro Bowl, and perhaps a Hall of Fame caliber player. There are lots of people who believe that. Enough that anyone who thinks he didn't leave an enormous hole in the middle of the defense needs to make that case, rather than the other way around. (Just putting out five years of points against with no context just doesn't make your case.)

Also, there is not a lot of data available, but it seems that Warren Sapp made about $6 million in the Bucs' Super Bowl year, against a $65 million payroll - about 9% of the payroll and 8.5% of that year's salary cap. Suh's $19 million salary is about 13% of the base NFL salary cap. Sapp is probably the closest comparison with Suh, and Suh does take up more of the cap than Sapp did, at least in that one year.

In any event, Suh's contributions to the defense and his relative proportion of team salary are separate issues. I do agree that Mayhew could have replaced Suh with Donald and avoided loading the salary cap with a DT. But it is not unreasonable to think that this year's Lions team is a playoff team had they been able to keep Suh.

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Then why pay one 15-20% of your cap?

Because he can be an integral part of it. Aaron ROdgers is a stud, and still has nice individual grading, but their offense has struggled without Nelson and a good OL. That doesn't mean I would regret paying Rodgers.

Also, its more like 12% and going down.

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That's not a fair assessment of my argument. It is not "how I feel". I posted data - that you did not cite - to the effect that even if this year's Lions defense had given up 50 more points than it did last year (rather than 118), the team would have been within the top twelve defenses in points allowed - eleven of which are in the playoffs. If you are going to lecture me about "what the data say," you could try referring to the data I use - or even provide data of your own.

Maybe Suh is no better than a replacement player and last year was a fluke. "I believe" Suh is Pro Bowl, and perhaps a Hall of Fame caliber player. There are lots of people who believe that. Enough that anyone who thinks he didn't leave an enormous hole in the middle of the defense needs to make that case, rather than the other way around. (Just putting out five years of points against with no context just doesn't make your case.)

Also, there is not a lot of data available, but it seems that Warren Sapp made about $6 million in the Bucs' Super Bowl year, against a $65 million payroll - about 9% of the payroll and 8.5% of that year's salary cap. Suh's $19 million salary is about 13% of the base NFL salary cap. Sapp is probably the closest comparison with Suh, and Suh does take up more of the cap than Sapp did, at least in that one year.

In any event, Suh's contributions to the defense and his relative proportion of team salary are separate issues. I do agree that Mayhew could have replaced Suh with Donald and avoided loading the salary cap with a DT. But it is not unreasonable to think that this year's Lions team is a playoff team had they been able to keep Suh.

Honestly, I think if you have to go back 12 years to Warren Sapp (before the NFL was even this pass happy), it kind of proves my point. And that's even assuming Suh is that good. The problem is, if you want the 130 point reduction you think Suh brings (I think that math checks out, forgive me if I am off), you have to take $20million out of somewhere else in the team, since the lions were at the salary cap. Obviously you are removing N'gata, but that leaves you $10 million short I believe. Good bye any depth you had, or good bye role player.

Not to mention I would love to see some reasoning how Suh, or even Warren Sapp is worth 130 points over replacement player.

FWIW, I agree about Donald, and it hurts even more because no one besides Mayhew though Ebron was the right pick. I remember laughing when they made that pick. But that largely is why Mayhew is fired. IMO it's hard to see a world where Donald is here and Mayhew doesn't have a job still.

Edit: I realize you obviously didn't look up all the DTs and come to the Warren Sapp conclusion. That may not be a valid point by me.

Edited by hardyaf

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Lets put it this way, you can get by with the Patriots CBs this year. It won't make or break them most likely. Adding Revis gives you bling though.

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Lets put it this way, you can get by with the Patriots CBs this year. It won't make or break them most likely. Adding Revis gives you bling though.

Of course it does. DB is a more valuable position.

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Maybe a little, but they're both spots where you can get by with lesser players. Truly elite players make winners though

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Ask any offensive coach if they gameplan around Suh.

I went to the Dolphins-Redskins game week 1. The Redskins did not even try to run toward Suh until the third quarter. He literally shut down half of the field.

Obviously the opposing team gameplans around a player, just like they double teamed Calvin all year (did that mean he was worth his contract? :)) But that's the point. You can't build your defensive scheme around one player, because the other team can just do something else. Suh cannot take over a game by himself. Even if he draws a double team every play (which I agree is a huge + for his team) someone else still has to be able to beat a 1 on 1 block for it to matter at all.

I think QB is the only position that should get that kind of money. There are too many good but not great DTs that you can get for pennies compared to Suh for him to ever be worth that contract.

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So you're criticizing Suh because a scheme can't be built around him(which it was here fwiw) and then later saying you can't build a scheme around any one player? Ok.....

Other than Watt, who might be the best defensive player of all time, any one player can be part of a bad unit no matter how well they play.

I have not criticized Suh once in this thread. I guess that's the problem with our argument. To be completely clear, since apparently it somehow wasn't despite me earlier saying this exact thing repeatedly: I am saying that Suh is not worth his contract, not that he is not a great player. He is a great player. He is also overpaid and his contract is a stupid one.

The only defensive lineman who should be making that kind of money is JJ Watt, and he's a far more impactful player than Suh in every aspect of the game.

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I have not criticized Suh once in this thread. I guess that's the problem with our argument. To be completely clear, since apparently it somehow wasn't despite me earlier saying this exact thing repeatedly: I am saying that Suh is not worth his contract, not that he is not a great player. He is a great player. He is also overpaid and his contract is a stupid one.

The only defensive lineman who should be making that kind of money is JJ Watt, and he's a far more impactful player than Suh in every aspect of the game.

Criticized him, held it against him, whatever you want to call it. I just responded to your post. NOt trying to argue semantics.

I think teams do better to keep their best players, even on slight overpays than to let them go more often than not and I think simplifying things down to "DT isn't that important", as some have done here, is silly and shortsighted. I don't believe in paying RBs, but I doubt Seattle or MInnesota would take back the contracts they gave out to their respective, overpaid RBs.

Suh not only dominated individually, there are stats that suggest he made everyone around him better. FO's DVOA particularly. George Johnson going back to a zero sack guy. Ziggy is dominant in his own right though, so that's good. I think Ngata is more impactful than people realize too.

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