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Nastradamus

Offseason thread 2016

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I'm sure that Suh had a great year, but the Dolphins defense overall was horrible most of the year, so it's hard to say he helped the them much. I wish he was still a Lion, but that was an awfully dumb signing by them.

As for Calvin, he's 31 and has been questionable due to his jacked up ankle for about 50 games in a row (literally) if he wants to retire he should. The dude has made over 100 million dollars, he's a surefire hall of famer, and he gave the Lions a decade of top play. If that's not enough for people that's their problem, not his.

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Interesting that you would rank him as having a "beast" of a season. I haven't watched him play this year, but I've heard no one describe his season that way. Where would you rank Suh's season among other players this season? Do you think he lived up to his massive contract?

Suh is a beast. You have to pretty much double him on every play and even then you can't stop him. Not sure how you justify a huge contract in the NFL. They didn't win.

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Suh is a beast. You have to pretty much double him on every play and even then you can't stop him. Not sure how you justify a huge contract in the NFL. They didn't win.

I guess to the extent that you can't justify the contract, that is on Miami, not Suh.

He performed at his established level of play, so I don't think the fact he is overpaid is in any was incriminating for him. His agent did a good job. Nothing more, nothing less.

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This is just speculation on my part but if Austin is hired as a head coach and the Lions new GM keeps Caldwell, would you be happy with Lovie Smith as the new defensive coordinator of the Lions?

Possibly. Might fit well without personnel. Frazier might be more likely.

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If he wasn't 31 I'd consider a trade.

I still might. I'm thinking a bit short term with the way this team is constructed. Cost is probably too high for Thomas though.

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I'm sure that Suh had a great year, but the Dolphins defense overall was horrible most of the year, so it's hard to say he helped the them much. I wish he was still a Lion, but that was an awfully dumb signing by them.

As for Calvin, he's 31 and has been questionable due to his jacked up ankle for about 50 games in a row (literally) if he wants to retire he should. The dude has made over 100 million dollars, he's a surefire hall of famer, and he gave the Lions a decade of top play. If that's not enough for people that's their problem, not his.

I hate the idea of a player not being individually worth it because the team sucked. Get good players and surround them with more

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I hate the idea of a player not being individually worth it because the team sucked. Get good players and surround them with more

Yeah, and they probably can't surround him with more because they paid him too much. I wouldn't want to give the best Offensive Guard in the league 25 million per season either.

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That is on the Dolphins, not Suh, though.

Agreed, and when discussing his value/contract I'm not judging Suh, the free individual able to enter into contracts of his own accord, but the Dolphins, the fools handing out bad contracts.

So, he isn't worth it to the Dolphins, or likely to any other team. That doesn't mean he's a bad player. If some team ponied up 50 million a year for Megatron when he was 25 it wouldn't have suddenly made him a bad player, but it sure would have made him a negative value player for his team.

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SUh got top end DL money, and he's an elite DL. Dl is one of the most important and impactful positions in the NFL today IMO. I don't agree with any of what you're saying. Look at the drop our D took without him for the evidence. 25 mil for a guard is nothing near the market

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Yeah, and they probably can't surround him with more because they paid him too much. I wouldn't want to give the best Offensive Guard in the league 25 million per season either.

Nobody builds a scheme around a guard. You can build a defensive scheme around a dominant DT.

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SUh got top end DL money, and he's an elite DL. Dl is one of the most important and impactful positions in the NFL today IMO. I don't agree with any of what you're saying. Look at the drop our D took without him for the evidence. 25 mil for a guard is nothing near the market

Yes, lets look at our defense with Suh, and without:

2011: 387 points given up

2012:437 points given up

2013: 376 points given up

2014: 282 points given up

2015: 400 points given up

What impact did losing Suh have? Why do you say DT is one of the most important positions? Who was the last DT paid big dollars on a consistently good team? Suh may be the most elite of all the DTs, but his value added to a defense is not that much more than an average DT.

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Yes, lets look at our defense with Suh, and without:

2011: 387 points given up

2012:437 points given up

2013: 376 points given up

2014: 282 points given up

2015: 400 points given up

What impact did losing Suh have? Why do you say DT is one of the most important positions? Who was the last DT paid big dollars on a consistently good team? Suh may be the most elite of all the DTs, but his value added to a defense is not that much more than an average DT.

Do you really think showing total points given up shows the impact one player had on a defense?

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Yes, lets look at our defense with Suh, and without:

2011: 387 points given up

2012:437 points given up

2013: 376 points given up

2014: 282 points given up

2015: 400 points given up

What impact did losing Suh have? Why do you say DT is one of the most important positions? Who was the last DT paid big dollars on a consistently good team? Suh may be the most elite of all the DTs, but his value added to a defense is not that much more than an average DT.

118 extra points isn't a big deal? Nobody is denying that you need other players and he can't make a D himself. That was my original point in fact. Yes, we were without Levy too, but did you watch the Lions this year on D and ever not notice the fact that Suh was missing? THe difference was night and day. AFter QB, pass rush is the thing a team needs most to win today IMO. Suh is a huge boost to a team's pass rush IMO. Comparing him simply to your average DT is a sillly exercise.

The Patriots invested big in guys like WIlfork and SEymour, the Ravens had Ngata, was huge for SF, ATkins is huge for Cincy, 3-4 DEs like Justin SMith and Calais Campbell have played huge roles on recent winning teams in SF and AZ(they play the same role Suh would in that scheme), Watt's basically carrying a team to the playoffs. Top 10 defenses this year feature guys like Wilkerson,Leonard WIllams, Gerald Mccoy, Kawann SHort as well as some of the guys above. I see no evidence that a top notch interior DL who contributes vs both the pass and the rush isn't worth the market value currently assigned to their role.

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1 of the top 7 paid DTs is on a playoff team. For comparison:

3 of the top 3 QBs

3 of the top 3 RBs

7 of the top 12 WRs are

3 of the top 5 TEs

4 of the top 10 OL (surprising),

5 of the top 5 LBs,

5 of the top 12 CBs,

3 of the top 6 safeties.

I tried to draw the line based on contract sizes, but some of them are fairly arbitrary. I tried my best not to cherry pick.

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118 extra points isn't a big deal? Nobody is denying that you need other players and he can't make a D himself. That was my original point in fact. Yes, we were without Levy too, but did you watch the Lions this year on D and ever not notice the fact that Suh was missing? THe difference was night and day. AFter QB, pass rush is the thing a team needs most to win today IMO. Suh is a huge boost to a team's pass rush IMO. Comparing him simply to your average DT is a sillly exercise.

The Patriots invested big in guys like WIlfork and SEymour, the Ravens had Ngata, was huge for SF, ATkins is huge for Cincy, 3-4 DEs like Justin SMith and Calais Campbell have played huge roles on recent winning teams in SF and AZ(they play the same role Suh would in that scheme), Watt's basically carrying a team to the playoffs. Top 10 defenses this year feature guys like Wilkerson,Leonard WIllams, Gerald Mccoy, Kawann SHort as well as some of the guys above. I see no evidence that a top notch interior DL who contributes vs both the pass and the rush isn't worth the market value currently assigned to their role.

Last year was an aberration. Suh was on all those other teams too...

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Plus we were without another great defensive player all year at an even more crucial position.

Lol, we missed Levy no doubt, but 4-3 OLB is far less important than any DL spot, especially in today's NFL. Maybe if Suh was just a run stuffer there might be an argument here.

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Yes, lets look at our defense with Suh, and without:

2011: 387 points given up

2012:437 points given up

2013: 376 points given up

2014: 282 points given up

2015: 400 points given up

What impact did losing Suh have? Why do you say DT is one of the most important positions? Who was the last DT paid big dollars on a consistently good team? Suh may be the most elite of all the DTs, but his value added to a defense is not that much more than an average DT.

Maybe Warren Sapp?

I'm not sure those stats you used are going to tell the whole story, but just using those stats you have an average points surrendered of 370 for 2011-2014 seasons. Had the Lions given up only 370 points versus 400 this season, that would have been the difference between being the 23rd ranked defense and the 16th. That kind of difference shows up in the W-L column.

A better question is how much did the loss of Suh (or an adequate replacement like Aaron Donald) have to do with the defense giving up 118 more points in 2015?

There were 12 teams that gave up fewer than 330 points this season. Eleven of them made the playoffs (Jets excepted). If the Lions could have performed anywhere close to what they did last season, they would have been a playoff team.

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Lol, we missed Levy no doubt, but 4-3 OLB is far less important than any DL spot, especially in today's NFL. Maybe if Suh was just a run stuffer there might be an argument here.

We will disagree on that. The LB's are more crucial than D lineman IMO. Feel free to yell at me about it, but I do not feel strongly enough about it to waste me time right now bolstering my point.

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Do you really think showing total points given up shows the impact one player had on a defense?

If I am paying someone ~20 million a year, I would expect that player would make an impact in the total points. Yes.

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Last year was an aberration. Suh was on all those other teams too...

I'd argue we were continually improving for the most part during his tenure. 32nd his first year in D, 23rd the nexst 2 years, 13 and 16 the next 2, then 2nd. Many indicators in 2013 had us as better than that 16 as well.

Again, of course you need other players. We lost Avril(Mayhew's biggest regret? other than Donald?) and had to wait for Ansah and Slay to come around a bit.

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