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Nastradamus

Offseason thread 2016

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1 hour ago, MAROTH4MVP said:

Hoyer sure didn't look good with the Texans. Cutler is awful. You, Cruzer, and the author of that article are the only people who think Cutler is as good as Stafford.

MTS history lesson, Cruzer wanted to trade the Stafford pick to the Broncos for Cutler.

Hoyer was actually pretty good for them. One of the lower end starters for sure, but as a backup he's pretty high quality. 

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

How good did orlavsky look?  He would be out of the league if it werent for the lions.  And hoyer looked decent in a few games with houston and then awful in others.  Clearly a backup, but its not even clear orlavsky belongs in the league much less as a #2.

Im pretty sure most neutral observers think cutler and stafford are very similar qbs.  Both have golden arms and a propensity for stupid mistakes.  Cutler was actually pretty decent last year.  According to football outsiders he was the best in the league when under pressure.

 

Similar, but Stafford doesn't throw picks like Cutler(rate wise) and his teamates seem to respect him

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1 hour ago, Nastradamus said:

Similar, but Stafford doesn't throw picks like Cutler(rate wise) and his teamates seem to respect him

Football outsiders (since were not allowed to use pff) had them almost exactly even last year.

Id rather have stafford because he is younger and doesnt seem like such an *** hole like cutler, but their games are real similar.

Im real curious how stafford manages without calvin.  I think the bigger deal is whether the oline is improved.  If not, it wont matter who the receiver is.

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4 hours ago, Buddha said:

Cutler and stafford are a wash.

 

This is so far false. Cutler is a bottom feeder.  I'm not sure you've ever said one positive thing about the Lions.  You say you hate the Bears but you're always trying to tell us how much better they are than the Lions. 

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55 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Football outsiders (since were not allowed to use pff) had them almost exactly even last year.

Id rather have stafford because he is younger and doesnt seem like such an *** hole like cutler, but their games are real similar.

Im real curious how stafford manages without calvin.  I think the bigger deal is whether the oline is improved.  If not, it wont matter who the receiver is.

Just briefly looked at year by year (I know not great because it doesn't count that cutler has had a better offense around him most of his career) but heres what I found:

2009- Cutler was better. 

2010- Stafford hurt, Cutler was better

2011- Stafford better

2012-close, but Stafford was better

2013- Stafford was better

2014- a wash. Could argue either one really

2015- Stafford was better.

 

Cutler has never put up numbers close to Staffords best year (2011), and he's only had 1 year close to Stafford's 2015. These QBs are not a wash. And Cutler has had one of the best RBs in the league at the time, as well as a WR on Calvins level, and a WR better than any number 2 Stafford has had (Alshon), and TE better than whatever we've rolled out, depending on your opinion on Pettigrew.

The way I see it, Cutlers ceiling is realistically Stafford's floor.  I honestly believe if Stafford played for anyone other than the lions, he'd be getting Andrew Luck level of love, at a minimum.

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2 hours ago, T&P_Fan said:

This is so far false. Cutler is a bottom feeder.  I'm not sure you've ever said one positive thing about the Lions.  You say you hate the Bears but you're always trying to tell us how much better they are than the Lions. 

You're as predictable as you are hilarious.

I hate the bears more than you like trey burke.  The lions could go 2-14 every year and i wouldnt give two squirts as long as they beat the ******* bears.

And if they DID go 2-14, i guarantee that you would think they were a couple plays away from 14-2.

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Stafford-vs-Average.png

Stafford-vs-Great.png

I would argue that Stafford was on some horrid teams at the start of his career. While Cutler was on some good teams with a legit rushing attack. For a lot of Years all Stafford had was CJ, Chris Durham, and the smoldering remains of Burleson are not #2 WR. Also the Lions have never had a run game. Statistically Stafford was the best QB in the red zone last year.

 

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12 hours ago, hardyaf said:

 

Cutler has never put up numbers close to Staffords best year (2011), and he's only had 1 year close to Stafford's 2015. These QBs are not a wash. And Cutler has had one of the best RBs in the league at the time, as well as a WR on Calvins level, and a WR better than any number 2 Stafford has had (Alshon), and TE better than whatever we've rolled out, depending on your opinion on Pettigrew.

The way I see it, Cutlers ceiling is realistically Stafford's floor.  I honestly believe if Stafford played for anyone other than the lions, he'd be getting Andrew Luck level of love, at a minimum.

Yes, people in Detroit do not appreciate Stafford. They think just because the Lions have played poorly he isn't good. But football is not like basketball, and one player can not give you a winning season like it does in the NBA.

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I'll say this. I thought Stafford was really breaking out under Linehan, and then our weapons collapsed and Linehan was fired with Schwartz. Lombardi was a disaster that hindered Stafford IMO. All that said, he has a guy at OC now that I really like and he has weapons. He needs to really perform at a high level this year. 

But for perspective, he was  5th in comp% last year, 7th in TDs, 9th in passer rating and 8th in yards. With Caldwell, who vowed to work on these things, he's had the 2 lowest INT%s of his career and 2 of the 3 best completion percentages. 

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On 7/14/2016 at 2:42 PM, hardyaf said:

Just briefly looked at year by year (I know not great because it doesn't count that cutler has had a better offense around him most of his career) but heres what I found:

2009- Cutler was better. 

2010- Stafford hurt, Cutler was better

2011- Stafford better

2012-close, but Stafford was better

2013- Stafford was better

2014- a wash. Could argue either one really

2015- Stafford was better.

 

Cutler has never put up numbers close to Staffords best year (2011), and he's only had 1 year close to Stafford's 2015. These QBs are not a wash. And Cutler has had one of the best RBs in the league at the time, as well as a WR on Calvins level, and a WR better than any number 2 Stafford has had (Alshon), and TE better than whatever we've rolled out, depending on your opinion on Pettigrew.

The way I see it, Cutlers ceiling is realistically Stafford's floor.  I honestly believe if Stafford played for anyone other than the lions, he'd be getting Andrew Luck level of love, at a minimum.

Football outsiders total team offense ranks:

2015:  Bears 10, Lions 13

2014:  Bears 14, Lions 19

2013:  Bears 6, Lions 19

2012:  Lions 8, Bears 26

2011:  Lions 10, Bears 30

2010:  Lions 19, Bears 28

By that measure, Cutler has not had a better offense around him than Stafford.  In fact, I would argue the opposite.  The Bears have had good defenses and TERRIBLE offenses under Lovie (through 2012).  The offense improved under Trestman when they got Marshall and Jeffrey before Marshall turned back into Marshall and ran himself out of town.  The Lions had a pretty good set of skill position players during that time and pretty good OCs until Lombardi showed up.

QB Rankings DYAR and DVOA:

2015:  Cutler 10 and 9, Stafford 9 and 10

2014:  Cutler 16 and 22, Stafford 15 and 21

2013:  Cutler 18 and 13, Stafford 12 and 15

2012:  Cutler 28 and 27, Stafford 6 and 12

2011:  Cutler 21 and 21, Stafford 5 and 10

2010:  Cutler 30 and 30, Stafford 29 and 21

I'm throwing out 2009 because that's not fair to Stafford because he was a rookie.  Other than that, Stafford was a LOT better when he had Linehan and Calvin in his prime to throw to and Cutler had Lovie running the show (Lovie's not an offensive type of guy).  Once the Bears got Marshall and Jeffrey and got Lovie out of there (2013), they were pretty much the same QB every year.

I think Stafford is a solid NFL QB.  I have hopes that the end of last year wasn't just a flash in the pan because they were playing weak defenses.  I hope the OLine is better than last year because if he has time, he should be ok.  I think people are making a little too much out of Calvin being gone.

I like Matt Stafford, dammit!  I just think he's pretty similar to Cutler in that they're both big armed QBs who make too many mistakes.

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Stafford makes significantly fewer mistakes though, with almost a 20% higher interception rate for his career. He also fumbles at about a 30% higher rate. Pretty big deal to me. 

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I'm fine working out Foster. He's an old RB and achilles' are brutal, so I'm not very hopeful he's still good. If he looks good in the workout though, bring him on in. 

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On 7/14/2016 at 11:29 AM, MAROTH4MVP said:

Hoyer sure didn't look good with the Texans. Cutler is awful. You, Cruzer, and the author of that article are the only people who think Cutler is as good as Stafford.

MTS history lesson, Cruzer wanted to trade the Stafford pick to the Broncos for Cutler.

I didn't want to trade Stafford for Cutler.  I thought Cutler would have been a bargain where he was drafted.  He has surely not lived up to his potential.  Stafford is much better right now.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

Cant hurt.

I'd take him over Ridley, but I think he'll sign with the Dolphins.

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On 7/16/2016 at 3:25 PM, Buddha said:

Football outsiders total team offense ranks:

2015:  Bears 10, Lions 13

2014:  Bears 14, Lions 19

2013:  Bears 6, Lions 19

2012:  Lions 8, Bears 26

2011:  Lions 10, Bears 30

2010:  Lions 19, Bears 28

By that measure, Cutler has not had a better offense around him than Stafford.  In fact, I would argue the opposite.  The Bears have had good defenses and TERRIBLE offenses under Lovie (through 2012).  The offense improved under Trestman when they got Marshall and Jeffrey before Marshall turned back into Marshall and ran himself out of town.  The Lions had a pretty good set of skill position players during that time and pretty good OCs until Lombardi showed up.

QB Rankings DYAR and DVOA:

2015:  Cutler 10 and 9, Stafford 9 and 10

2014:  Cutler 16 and 22, Stafford 15 and 21

2013:  Cutler 18 and 13, Stafford 12 and 15

2012:  Cutler 28 and 27, Stafford 6 and 12

2011:  Cutler 21 and 21, Stafford 5 and 10

2010:  Cutler 30 and 30, Stafford 29 and 21

I'm throwing out 2009 because that's not fair to Stafford because he was a rookie.  Other than that, Stafford was a LOT better when he had Linehan and Calvin in his prime to throw to and Cutler had Lovie running the show (Lovie's not an offensive type of guy).  Once the Bears got Marshall and Jeffrey and got Lovie out of there (2013), they were pretty much the same QB every year.

I think Stafford is a solid NFL QB.  I have hopes that the end of last year wasn't just a flash in the pan because they were playing weak defenses.  I hope the OLine is better than last year because if he has time, he should be ok.  I think people are making a little too much out of Calvin being gone.

I like Matt Stafford, dammit!  I just think he's pretty similar to Cutler in that they're both big armed QBs who make too many mistakes.

My only problem with this is that DYAR and DVOA struggle in the way all football stats struggle. That is separating individuals from teams (QB from WRs and RBs). I agree about the flaws with Lovie Smith, but I still would say Matt Forte by himself is a more valuable player than Stafford ever had (yes, I know, Calvin is really really good, but a 2 way RB relieves all kinds of pressure that Calvin can't). Adding in Marshall and Alshon was just cream later. That offense should have rolled the scoreboard if Cutler was nearly as good as Stafford, IMO. While I don't discount the stats, because I am a stats guy, I think context has to matter. And I still think Cutler is trash. My argument isn't even a reflection of my opinion on Stafford. It's more how little Cutler has done with all Cutler has had. 

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I agree on football stats.  Its a team game.

I dont agree on forte v calvin.  Calvin was a much more dominant offensive player; more unique.  Forte was a great rb at a time when great rbs arent as important any more.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

I agree on football stats.  Its a team game.

I dont agree on forte v calvin.  Calvin was a much more dominant offensive player; more unique.  Forte was a great rb at a time when great rbs arent as important any more.

Just curious, not talking about 5 years ago Forte vs 5 years ago Calvin since football has changed so much since even then, but if you had a choice to have 24 year old Calvin vs 24 year old Forte now, who would you choose? I would choose Forte, and it really isn't close.

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On 7/18/2016 at 1:00 AM, cruzer1 said:

I didn't want to trade Stafford for Cutler.  I thought Cutler would have been a bargain where he was drafted.  He has surely not lived up to his potential.  Stafford is much better right now.

You're right. I was 100% wrong.

Was it Mschotty who wanted Cutler? You and him used to disagree on everything.

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13 hours ago, Buddha said:

I agree on football stats.  Its a team game.

I dont agree on forte v calvin.  Calvin was a much more dominant offensive player; more unique.  Forte was a great rb at a time when great rbs arent as important any more.

He was such a pass catcher too though, a true triple threat. Plus Bennett. A 2 way TE is huge for a QB. White is a potentially huge add, but I think they'll run it worse. Still think Gase is a big deal

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