Jump to content

Nastradamus

Offseason thread 2016

Recommended Posts

I think the NFL playoffs, due to the single elimination nature of them, are almost as close to random as baseball. A dominant team will still have a greater advantage in a single game, but it only takes 3-4 wins to be the champion and if you qualify you are good enough to beat anyone.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 6/28/2016 at 9:29 PM, Mr.TaterSalad said:

This isn't even a little bit surprising given that he was one of the last big name QBs taken during the old rookie salary system.  You don't exactly get your QB to take a pay cut given his moderate level of success.  Right now the vast majority of QBs are either getting payed a lot because they have proven it on the field or they are getting rookie-cap salaries right now.

Stafford is probably the old guy who's still left from that era of huge rookie contracts who's been effective enough to keep a starting job but not been super-star level (yet?).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man you guys have a sour look on sports.

SVG is an OG, not even worried there.  Tigers?  Most teams can win it any given year.  Lions?  Stafford about to be MVP like, and that's all it takes in the NFL to make the Super Bowl.  You guys are walking next to a stream while complaining about being thirsty, 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

But suppose he regresses back to 2012 and 2013 Matt Stafford or 1st half last season Matt Stafford. Is that still a guy worth bringing back at such a large cap hit? If Stafford goes out and has a repeat of his 2013 numbers and is somewhere along the lines of 25-30 TD's, 17-20 picks, a less than 60% completion% and a mediocre QB rating should we still want to pay him whatever it takes to keep him?

But suppose he takes the next step forward.

 

Setting that aside, why not, you know, actually wait until he craps the bed instead of playing the 'could' and 'if' game to defend your position?

Life is too short and you could worry about the same thing with any player who is on a big contract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, T&P_Fan said:

Man you guys have a sour look on sports.

SVG is an OG, not even worried there.  Tigers?  Most teams can win it any given year.  Lions?  Stafford about to be MVP like, and that's all it takes in the NFL to make the Super Bowl.  You guys are walking next to a stream while complaining about being thirsty, 

Someone is pissing on your head and you think its raining.

I dont have a sour look on sports, i have a realistic assessment of my own teams' strengths and weaknesses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

But suppose he takes the next step forward.

 

Setting that aside, why not, you know, actually wait until he craps the bed instead of playing the 'could' and 'if' game to defend your position?

Life is too short and you could worry about the same thing with any player who is on a big contract.

I guess my secondary concern is if you wait too long to sign Stafford and he decides he wants to test the waters in free agency. Then all of a sudden you are in a bidding war with Jerry Jones or Cleveland or whomever it is that needs a QB in two years and you risk losing him for nothing. If he regresses this year or starts out like he did last year, I trade him at season's end. If by mid-season he is showing big improvements under Cooter's offense then I guess I pony up and give him his Andrew Luck sized contract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Buddha said:

Someone is pissing on your head and you think its raining.

I dont have a sour look on sports, i have a realistic assessment of my own teams' strengths and weaknesses.

I laughed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I guess my secondary concern is if you wait too long to sign Stafford and he decides he wants to test the waters in free agency. Then all of a sudden you are in a bidding war with Jerry Jones or Cleveland or whomever it is that needs a QB in two years and you risk losing him for nothing. If he regresses this year or starts out like he did last year, I trade him at season's end. If by mid-season he is showing big improvements under Cooter's offense then I guess I pony up and give him his Andrew Luck sized contract.

You franchise him and figure it out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

But suppose he regresses back to 2012 and 2013 Matt Stafford or 1st half last season Matt Stafford. Is that still a guy worth bringing back at such a large cap hit? If Stafford goes out and has a repeat of his 2013 numbers and is somewhere along the lines of 25-30 TD's, 17-20 picks, a less than 60% completion% and a mediocre QB rating should we still want to pay him whatever it takes to keep him?

Meh, only in '13 did he have a poor interception rate and even then it wasn't truly awful, just below average. Gotta realize how many passes he has been asked to throw and adjust. So much of his on and off struggles from '12-'14 were situation IMO. He lost all his weapons in 12 and 13 and I don' t think anyone questions at this point how truly bad Lombardi was. Not to mention some historically bad running games. 2 key things to remember basically. All QBs take a huge drop off when they lose weapons and most QBs do poorly against top defenses, because great defense trumps great offense in this league, as we've seen in a few of the recent SBs for example. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Man you guys have a sour look on sports.

SVG is an OG, not even worried there.  Tigers?  Most teams can win it any given year.  Lions?  Stafford about to be MVP like, and that's all it takes in the NFL to make the Super Bowl.  You guys are walking next to a stream while complaining about being thirsty, 

Of the non lions teams, only the Tigers have anything resembling a decent chance to win a championship, but their path this year is almost certainly via the wild card, and they are competing with 5-6 teams for two spots there, and even then you've got to win a one game playoff just to get the chance to face the best team in the AL in a 5 game series.

That makes for pretty long odds.

I love SVG. He great. I think he can definitely build a team that is in the 4-5 seed range, but that type of team isn't even winning a championship.

The red wings are stuck in mediocrity, which is better than the alternative of being a non-playoff team, because at least you get a chance, but even if they make the playoffs, it's hard to see them as better than a 5% chance to win four straight series against better teams.

None of these teams have a decent chance of winning a championship any time soon. I still hold out hope for the Tigers because they do have enough talent on the roster to out it together and grab a wild card spot, and then a win in a coin flip game would get them to a 10% chance of winning it all. So there is at least a path there.

With the lions, the NFL is weird and almost any team can get lucky and find the right fit of pieces to be a winning team. I have no issue with lions optimism.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I guess my secondary concern is if you wait too long to sign Stafford and he decides he wants to test the waters in free agency. Then all of a sudden you are in a bidding war with Jerry Jones or Cleveland or whomever it is that needs a QB in two years and you risk losing him for nothing. If he regresses this year or starts out like he did last year, I trade him at season's end. If by mid-season he is showing big improvements under Cooter's offense then I guess I pony up and give him his Andrew Luck sized contract.

So your concerns are he does great or he does poorly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

So your concerns are he does great or he does poorly.

Yes and I'm not ready to drop an Andrew Luck type of deal in front of him just yet and say sign, in-case he does preform poorly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very curious to see what this team is one way or the other. Interesting to me that so many have a pretty down look on this current squad. I feel like it has a lot of potential. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Very curious to see what this team is one way or the other. Interesting to me that so many have a pretty down look on this current squad. I feel like it has a lot of potential. 

It's just the natural reaction of losing Calvin, guys like Ngata being another year older and De'Andre Levy's health. I am of course most interested to see what this offense does without Calvin but with a revamped o-line and a second year under Jim-Bob. On the micro-level of our offense, I am interested to see if we finally have a legitimate rushing attack. Having a running game that isn't a basement dweller will really be key for compensating for Calvin's absence. Where the running game goes will of course show us where the offensive line ends up as a unit. Do we finally have stability and quality play throughout the year there? If the running game still can't get started and it looks to be the fault of the line as much as it is the guys carrying the ball, there will be every reason to be pessimistic for the remainder of the season because this offense will be bad, real bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean, its never fun to lose a guy like Calvin, but I don't see us as short on weapons. Not my major concern. 

Agreed on the run game though. Hoping we are much better, and I think we will be. Tomlinson and Decker will be key here. Glasgow winning the C job would be nice. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All I ask is the Lions be respectable this season so I can watch and not feel like I'm completely wasting my time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I mean, its never fun to lose a guy like Calvin, but I don't see us as short on weapons. Not my major concern. 

Agreed on the run game though. Hoping we are much better, and I think we will be. Tomlinson and Decker will be key here. Glasgow winning the C job would be nice. 

Youre counting on two rookies on the offensive line, one at the most important position on the line.  Youre counting on the team being better after losing its best offensive player for a decade, for levy to come back from a season long injury in good form, and for jim caldwell to suddenly become a coaching savant.

I definitely see why the national media (and vegas) are down on the lions.

I think they will struggle to reach 500, even with what appears to be an easier schedule than last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Youre counting on two rookies on the offensive line, one at the most important position on the line.  Youre counting on the team being better after losing its best offensive player for a decade, for levy to come back from a season long injury in good form, and for jim caldwell to suddenly become a coaching savant.

I definitely see why the national media (and vegas) are down on the lions.

I think they will struggle to reach 500, even with what appears to be an easier schedule than last year.

I mean, I can make overly cynical statements about any team if I really want to. 

I'm not counting on Glasgow. It would be nice if he took the job, but I think Swanson can probably hold it down. I think we have a lot of good run blockers and good depth on the OL this year, so its not a major area of concern for me. Remember, they played much better under Cooter, as they fit his scheme much more so. Decker will obviously be huge, but I think the fact that they seem very comfortable moving Reiff to RT for him already bodes well for him early on. 

We shall see though. I'd be surprised if we can't both pass and run the ball effectively this year. I think we will stop the run at a high level as well. Pass defense is a question mark, but we are quicker at S and LB than when we had our major pass coverage issues last year and deeper at DL and CB. I think we can at least be average defending the pass. I'm thinking about a top 8 offense and a 12-18 ranked D, with upside. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently you can make overly optimistic statements about at least ONE team too...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm more on the skeptical side when it comes to the Lions.  Losing Calvin is a bigger deal than some are making it out to be, Stafford just lost his safety cushion so it's going to be a big adjustment for him to be more accurate instead of just throwing lobs to Calvin.  The offensive line has potential but it's awfully young and there will be some moving parts with Reiff moving to the right tackle and having a rookie at left tackle protecting Stafford's blind side.  The defense will be highly dependent on Ngata returning to form and Levy being fully healthy coming off of a pretty serious injury, is the glowing reports of Van Noy's training camp empty hype?  The corners are very young as well.  On offense, Abdullah needs to hold on to the ball, something that has been a struggle for him throughout his career.  Ebron HAS TO take the next step and we're all still waiting for that.

I don't know.  I'm trying to keep an optimistic outlook but on paper, this looks like a 6-10, 7-9 type of season.  I do see potential growth in this team to exceed expectations but there are so many question marks right now.  They are a distant 3rd in the division the way things look now, I think that much is clear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just can't see us being worse with a full season of Cooter(if you're not a believer, so be it), a much easier schedule on paper, Levy back and a year's experience for a pretty young roster. I think Calvin will be relatively easily replaced by spreading the ball around. Jones will replace a chunk, Tate will catch more balls. It would obviously be nice if Ebron stepped up a level or 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

I just can't see us being worse with a full season of Cooter(if you're not a believer, so be it), a much easier schedule on paper, Levy back and a year's experience for a pretty young roster. I think Calvin will be relatively easily replaced by spreading the ball around. Jones will replace a chunk, Tate will catch more balls. It would obviously be nice if Ebron stepped up a level or 2

Agreed.  Lots of over-reaction in regards to losing Calvin.  I don't see it really being an issue.   I see this season playing out well.  The Lions will surprise those who think it will be a down here.  Continuity in the offense, best LB returning and overall a deeper team bodes fell.  Stafford is going to bust out.  And I know pretty much no one has any hopes for Ebron, so that's all gravy once he shows out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...