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Offseason thread 2016

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Yah, guys like Fairley and Pettigrew are not busts. If you get a starting caliber player in the first round who goes on to another multi million dollar per year contract, you didn't draft a bust, period. 

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This thread is a trip man.  Calling second year TE's a bust. 

No one has to guess who I am predicting to be a breakout player this year. 

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6 minutes ago, T&P_Fan said:

This thread is a trip man.  Calling second year TE's a bust. 

No one has to guess who I am predicting to be a breakout player this year. 

I know that it's hard to define what a breakout season for Ebron will be not really knowing how Cooter will use him, but what is a breakout season to you? Because I define breakout as 75-80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8+ TD's. If he bumps up from last season but only has something in the range of 55 catches, 650 yards and 3-4 TD's, that kind of marginal improvement won't be a breakout

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2 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I know that it's hard to define what a breakout season for Ebron will be not really knowing how Cooter will use him, but what is a breakout season to you? Because I define breakout as 75-80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8+ TD's. If he bumps up from last season but only has something in the range of 55 catches, 650 yards and 3-4 TD's, that kind of marginal improvement won't be a breakout

So anything short of a top 5 TE season from him won't be enough for you?

Going off of last year TE stats:

75 catches would put him tied for sixth last year, 80 he would have been third in the league

1200 yards would have been first in the league

8 TDs would have been tied for 5th

 

I have a feeling you're going to be disappointed

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2 minutes ago, drownwithyou said:

So anything short of a top 5 TE season from him won't be enough for you?

Going off of last year TE stats:

75 catches would put him tied for sixth last year, 80 he would have been third in the league

1200 yards would have been first in the league

8 TDs would have been tied for 5th

 

I have a feeling you're going to be disappointed

Yep, I probably am going to be. But we were told when he was drafted that he was Jimmy Graham 2.0 for this offense. I just want what we were told would happen to actually happen.

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If it makes you feel any better, Ebron and Graham had basically the same season last year.  Though Graham played less games, but saw more targets than Ebron.

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On 5/25/2016 at 11:47 AM, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I always like to say that someone is a bust relative to where they were drafted but not a total bust overall. An example of this is Nick Fairley. The guy never fully lived up to the hype of where he was picked and what he was drafted to do. However, he was still a productive contributor to the defense and can't be labeled a bust in the terms of the overall scope of his career with Detroit.

Titus Young, LeShoure, Best, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams if you want to go further back.  Those guys were busts.

Guys like Pettigrew and Fairley are not.  Disappoints?  Sure.  Busts?  Absolutely not.  Pettigrew was actually one of the best pass catching TE's in the league for a couple year period there although he always had a high drop rate.  Those days seem like so long ago now.

I have never been a fan of Ebron and this is going back to his North Carolina days but I think it's kind of ridiculous that there's an article calling him a bust already.  Even if he maintains this modest level of production for the next 5 years, he's not a bust.  A disappointment to be sure but not a bust.  I'm still sour that they didn't take Donald or Beckham.

With that said, lets see how Ebron does next season.  He's going to get more opportunity now that Calvin is out of the picture, time to step up kid.

 

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3 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Yep, I probably am going to be. But we were told when he was drafted that he was Jimmy Graham 2.0 for this offense. I just want what we were told would happen to actually happen.

Well, he's not that.  I think you need to curb your expectations a bit.

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On ‎5‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 10:38 AM, T&P_Fan said:

This thread is a trip man.  Calling second year TE's a bust. 

No one has to guess who I am predicting to be a breakout player this year. 

And if he doesn't break out, we all know where the blame for that will lie...

 

THE REFS!  Bunch of Lion hating cheaters.

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12 hours ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

Pride of Detroit: PFF Predicts 4-12 For the Lions

PFF continues to be just brutal towards our organization this off-season. C- draft grade, Decker in the 1st round, terrible off-season signings, 4-12 record . . .

They sell analytics to teams. Under Mayhew the Lions were subscribers to this service. Quinn pulled out. Since then PFF has done nothing but spew hatred toward the Lions.

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On 5/27/2016 at 2:48 AM, cruzer1 said:

Not a big deal now, but running backs (as much as their leg problems), a lot of them are knocked out of football because of shoulder problems.

But a shoulder injury can't be good for a player who already has fumble issues. Also would like to have seen him to be able to lift weights in the off season, sort of hard to do that with a bum shoulder. This defiantly is not good for his development. 

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On 6/3/2016 at 1:44 AM, MAROTH4MVP said:

They sell analytics to teams. Under Mayhew the Lions were subscribers to this service. Quinn pulled out. Since then PFF has done nothing but spew hatred toward the Lions.

I know next to nothing about it, but it seems unlikely they would dramatically or significantly underrate the Lions, as it undercuts their credibility and would only serve to lower how well they predict outcomes, which I have to imagine is tracked by organizations who are considering hiring them.

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I suspect pff doesnt like the lions because the lions have lost their moat highly rated players (suh and johnson) and have not replaced them adequately.

That being said, i had a subscription to pff for a year.  I watched every lions game and a lot of bears games.  I did not agree with pff grading on a lot of players.  So i dropped my subscription.

I do think it is a lot more likely that the lions go 4-12 than 12-4.  I suspect they will hover around .500, just miss the playoffs, and then the entire coaching staff will be replaced.

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I really don't think this team is capable of going 4-12 without a Stafford injury. Going 12-4 may also require extenuating circumstances I suppose. 

Lets break us down for fun

OFFENSE

QB - We've all aired out our Stafford feelings by now. Love him or hate him, we all have a rough idea where he stands and what he can do. ASSESMENT -  No changes, hoping for scheme/coaching related improvement

RB - Abdullah got hot once Cooter was installed as OC and lead the NFL In ypc from that point on. Ridley and Zenner are question marks, but they only have to do better than Joique. Riddick is obviously a beast as a pass catcher. ASSESSMENT - Very slight improvement, due to Abdullah not being a rookie and younger guys replacing Joique. 

WR - Jones is a downgrade from Calvin obviously, but still a damn good player. Kerley is probably a bit better than Moore. Jones, FUller or a rookie making some impact would help. Tate had a bit of a down year last year with a 9.0 ypc number. His improvement back to 2014 could be huge. ASSESSMENT - Downgraded, but we can probably get similar production

TE - Our big wildcard. Pettigrew may need to go on PUP with that ACL, Ebron is all potential still at this point and Milligan is one dimensional. Wright had to be waived with an injury. Ebron will be the key here obviously. A decent improvement by  ASSESSMENT - Complete wild card. Minimal change from last year

OL - This is the big one for me. Gotta hope for improvement. They were MUCH better under Cooter's power blocking scheme and with Ola added at RT. Now Ola is the #3, Decker is in the picture, Tomlinson isn't a rookie, Swanson has competition and Schwartz won't sink us if Tomlinson gets dinged again. ASSESSMENT - Major improvement expected

DL - The other big key for us. We are down Jason Jones, up Charles and Robinson. Plus Walker went out early last year with injury. DT should be deeper and stronger over all, DE could use an add, but Jones to Gilberry isn't that big of a difference IMO. Taylor has to at least repeat last year though. One more veteran add would be nice here.  ASSESSMENT - Area of strength and depth, not quite enough pass rush to be truly dominant. Improved from last year I think you'd have to say. 

LB - An area where we impressed compared to expectations last year, especially considering Levy was out. Tulloch looked old and slow, but when he was replaced(along with Ihedigbo), the D looked a ton faster. Now we get Levy back to go with Whitehead and Bynes. Any contribution from Van Noy or the rookie would give us pretty nice depth considering how much nickel we will play. Speaking of nickel packages, Kilebrew will see time here as a rover as well.  ASSESSMENT - Area of strength, improved over last year

CB -  Maybe the most interesting position to assess right now. Slay is a stud on one side. The rest we are a bit unsure on. Butler,Diggs and Lawson stepped up last year and were arguably an upgrade on Mathis. Diggs should lock down the nickel spot, which is key these days. That leaves the other 2, Alex Carter and Walls to vie for the other starting outside spot. None are proven studs obviously, but all have potential and Austin does good work with DBs. ASSESSMENT - I think its an above average group, but someone needs to at least play not terribly in the #2 role. Equal or better to last year

S - It was rough going last year with Ihedigbo in the lineup, but AQ was a big upgrade(top rated S on PFF in 2nd half IIRC). AQ is gone now, replaced with Rafael Bush, Tavon Wilson and Kilebrew(as a hybrid type). Quin didn't have his best year last year. Curious to see if that was a fluke or a beginning of a downturn. Bademosi's addition should help STs, but probably won't play on D much.  ASSESSSMENT - Interesting depth and talent, but for now we have to call it downgraded from last year. Bush needs to stay healthy at the very least. 

Statistical rankings in 2015 

18th in ppg(22), but scored 26 under Cooter. 24(which would likely rank top 10) would be a nice goal to shoot for IMO. 

32nd in rushing offense - This is the area where we have the most room and potential for improvement. A huge jump is needed, minimally to middle of the pack. 

9th in passing offense - Not too concerned with whether we get more yards here, but gotta keep the INTs low and be more consistent against better defenses. 

23rd in points allowed, better down the stretch with the old guys out(Ihedigbo,Tulloch,Mathis). Again, hoping for middle of the pack at worst. 

19th in rush defense - Much like our offense, this is probably the area with the most potential for improvement. Could be a very strong part of our team. 

15th in pass defense - Probably about what I expect for this year. Somewhere from 12-20 seems reasonable. 

 

All told, it seems it would line up that we are average to above average, 7-9 to 9-7, but with room for improvement. The run game, Ebron and the unknowns at DB will likely determine if we play above that level. Even a disaster season with this roster and I'd struggle to see us below 6-10. Stafford being comfortable with Caldwell and Cooter is the other X factor I suppose. Dominant QB play always is. Can he get there? Who knows. 

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23 hours ago, Buddha said:

I suspect pff doesnt like the lions because the lions have lost their moat highly rated players (suh and johnson) and have not replaced them adequately.

That being said, i had a subscription to pff for a year.  I watched every lions game and a lot of bears games.  I did not agree with pff grading on a lot of players.  So i dropped my subscription.

I do think it is a lot more likely that the lions go 4-12 than 12-4.  I suspect they will hover around .500, just miss the playoffs, and then the entire coaching staff will be replaced.

I'm pretty sure I read some sort of offseason review for the Lions from PFF and they lamented the losses of Joique Bell and Manny Ramirez in the write up, so I'm not entirely sure what they saw there.

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Does either side consider Levy and a 1st for Von Miller? Crazy trades make fun conversation if nothing else lol.  

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We then added Andre Roberts like 5 minutes after that announcement. Kinda weird. I'd take Boldin in a heartbeat, even though I don't see WR as a need. 

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