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Mr.TaterSalad

2016 NFL Draft Thread

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22 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

PFF Shat on our draft . . .

 

I think I could make about 4 changes and improve our draft immensely. Hate the last two picks. Don't see the need for Dahl, but I'll leave him for now as a depth thumper OG that I guess Quinn wants on our OL... But that LB'er is limited and you can get thumpers like him in any round, and Zettel is freaking overkill. And not a greatly skilled overkill either. Too small of a DT for the run, so even on passing downs, if he's tossed into the rotation and it's a draw he'll be wiped out, leaving a wide open lane... But maybe he's better than that. Anyways, I dropped our last two picks, pushed our LB'er selection to mid-6th, and dropped Zettel for a rush-DE:

 

1 Taylor Dekker, OT
2 A'Shawn Robinson, DT
3 Graham Glasgow, C/OG
4 Miles Killebrew, SS
5a Joe Dahl, OG
5b Deandre Houston-Carson, FS/CB
6a Jake Rudock, QB
6b Scooby Wright ILB, or Antwione Williams LB, or Aaron Wallace OLB, whoever is avail. (all 3?)
6c Stephen Weatherley, DE
7 Charone Peake, WR

The last two picks were terrible, just terrible. And help the damn secondary, dammit!!! Although I DO love the Killebrew pick... big time!!!

 

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33 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I would have to imagine Quinn wants to see what he has in Alex Carter.

 

You could say the same for several players. 

Doesn't he want to see what he has in Tomlinson? So why draft Dahl, when we have Tomlinson/ Warford/ Schwartz/ and the loser of the Swanson/ Glasgow battle?

We have Ngata/ Walker/ Robinson/ Reid/ Wright/ and Charles... and he drafts Zettel? Doesn't he wanna see what the FIRST six guys can do?

I don't mind drafting a LB'er, I think we could use the depth, but Quinn doesn't want to see what we have in Van Noy/ Copeland/ Bynes/ Levy/ Whitehead? And damn, we still have Tulloch!!!

And why not take a speed receiver that could possibly develop (he has size, speed & skills, but needs some work), to either stash and develop on the practice squad or push Fuller out of a roster spot (as he's shown very little since getting here...)? I think Receiver is more of a need than a 7th DT or 6th RB (especially when that RB is pretty damn terrible & coulda been had as a free agent, IMO).

Nigel Lawson was OK at outside CB, not great, but OK. He was better the year before at nickel, IIRC. So opposite Slay, we have Lawson who was OK but better at nickel, and a draft choice coming off of a lost year to IR... And? I think not drafting an available Free Safety/ CB hybrid (played both positions, has speed and ball skills and size for both)/ with great special teams skills, was a weak decision. For a LB'er who could be had a round later, or a similar comp player with the mid-6th pick. I just don't agree with some of these selections. I think several of them were weak, and could have been better made. In fact, I still don't get why we drafted Dahl, and Zettel (overkill at positions already overflowing)  when we have a serious need at DE where we have Taylor and Ansah good enough to start and...? If one of these guys gets injured? Then what? 

 

Poor planning and poor draft choices. Too many overkill selections, and not enough need players taken when there were good ones available (especially in later rounds when that is exactly when teams take need picks). And then the crappiest last two selections we could possibly take. That's just my opinion.

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I'll put it another way:

 

Our first (4) selections I would grade an overall B+. I like/love the Dekker/Robinson/Glasgow/Killebrew selections. Dahl a C- (overkill) and Rudock a C (he's a meh player to me. is he any better then Kellen Moore, who we got as a UDFA? He doesn't look like it to me... although I ain't no scout...). The last 3 selections are F's (Zettel = WAY overkill, and not that much of a player/ fit; Landes... a LS? Seriously? and Washington (ick!)). And Williams a D-triple minus (D---) because we coulda got him a round later IMO, or Scooby or Wallace, not different LB'ers: all of whom aren't immediate starters/ could help some on ST's, but look mostly like depth players at the position. Nothing special. At a spot where we could have helped the secondary (there is NO good backup for Quinn, and a potential weakness at CB opposite Slay (Lawson adequate and Carter coming off lost season at IR, essentially a rookie...)).

 

Overall, that's a D+/ C-. The bad picks (bad IMO) offset the good ones.

I'm not impressed by this draft. At first I liked it, up until the 4th, and then it went downhill starting in the 5th. Bad ending.

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I'll put it another way:

 

Our first (4) selections I would grade an overall B+. I like/love the Dekker/Robinson/Glasgow/Killebrew selections. Dahl a C- (overkill) and Rudock a C (he's a meh player to me. is he any better then Kellen Moore, who we got as a UDFA? He doesn't look like it to me... although I ain't no scout...). The last 3 selections are F's (Zettel = WAY overkill, and not that much of a player/ fit; Landes... a LS? Seriously? and Washington (ick!)). And Williams a D-triple minus (D---) because we coulda got him a round later IMO, or Scooby or Wallace, not different LB'ers: all of whom aren't immediate starters/ could help some on ST's, but look mostly like depth players at the position. Nothing special. At a spot where we could have helped the secondary (there is NO good backup for Quinn, and a potential weakness at CB opposite Slay (Lawson adequate and Carter coming off lost season at IR, essentially a rookie...)).

 

Overall, that's a D+/ C-. The bad picks (bad IMO) offset the good ones.

I'm not impressed by this draft. At first I liked it, up until the 4th, and then it went downhill starting in the 5th. Bad ending.

I'm curious as to why the bad late round depth/lottery-ticket picks offset the good early round immediate-impact picks for you?

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7 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Fuehne, Lee, and Farris look like they could make it to the practice squad and maybe, eventually onto the roster.

 

I think we still have weaknesses at backup DE and FS/CB depth. If Quinn goes down, who plays FS? I think we're screwed if that happens. It's sort of why I was looking at those big CB/FS hybrids (Hall, Houston-Carson) that can play deep safety (and have played CB previously or currently). Those two were also active on ST's, enabling them to be active there and help out, while learning the starting/backup positions.

I wouldn't be opposed to re-signing Tapp if he's still out there, just for depth. I don't remember seeing him sign anywhere. Good locker room guy.

Don Carey has done well for a few years, and he runs well.

 

I liked this draft very much.  I think Rudock is a terrific pick, and I think he can eventually start in this league.  I can see a scenario where he becomes the top backup over the year, and then the Lions draft another QB late in next years draft to be a 3rd QB.

 

Also, about the long snapper pick.  I like it.  Its a creative way to manage the cap.  You can't have too much money invested in your long snapper/kicker/punter.  It wouldn't surprise me to see the Lions search for a kicker in next years draft either.

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Kind of overall agree with 84lives. Great top end down to middle part of the draft then from round 5 downwards I was disappointed.

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What are the chances that ~4-7 round picks make an impact in the NFL? Less than 10%? If the Lions first 4 picks make an impact(start and play at an above average NFL level at some point next season) and a couple later round picks make the team and do some good work on special teams, etc. then I would consider the draft a success.

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32 minutes ago, nd1377 said:

What are the chances that ~4-7 round picks make an impact in the NFL? Less than 10%? If the Lions first 4 picks make an impact(start and play at an above average NFL level at some point next season) and a couple later round picks make the team and do some good work on special teams, etc. then I would consider the draft a success.

Well, that all depends on how good your team is at drafting. Here is a chart of the percentage that become actual starters in a recent season, but as you would expect many more provide depth, although if you count undrafted players there are more starters in the NFL (near 40%) that come from round 4 on, so it is somewhat important. The undrafted bit also tells you how much of a dice roll this drafting stuff is.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/2/#76153ef03cff

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1 hour ago, DrWho17 said:

Well, that all depends on how good your team is at drafting. Here is a chart of the percentage that become actual starters in a recent season, but as you would expect many more provide depth, although if you count undrafted players there are more starters in the NFL (near 40%) that come from round 4 on, so it is somewhat important. The undrafted bit also tells you how much of a dice roll this drafting stuff is.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/2/#76153ef03cff

From your article:

4th round pick has a 10.8% chance of being a starter (let's say there are 30 picks in this round, there is a chance that 3 will be starters)

5th round pick has a 6.4% chance of being a starter (let's say there are 30 picks in this round, there is a chance that 1 or 2 will be starters)

6th round pick has a 4.9% chance of being a starter (if 30 picks, maybe 1 will be a starter)

7th round pick has a 4.2% chance of being a starter (maybe 1 will be a starter)

From the 4th round on, the stats claim there will be about 6-7 starters out of ~120 picks.

That does not mean that 40% of the starters in the NFL will come from the 4th round on.

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7 hours ago, holygoat said:

I'm curious as to why the bad late round depth/lottery-ticket picks offset the good early round immediate-impact picks for you?

I gotta run for the day but here's a short answer to your question (actually, it's a long article from M-Live, but it says a lot of what I would want to):

 

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2016/05/column_lions_had_a_good_first.html

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I'm one of those that believes we are adequately set at WR for just now but it would have been nice to pick something up late. 

 

Ill use Peake as an example. From what I'd heard/seen, without the injuries Peake could have been 3rd-4th round talent and fairly high up on the WR rankings. His injuries dropped him down. 

This is the type of chance we could have taken with multiple picks in round 6. Might not work out due to injury but potentially a very good addition to our WR core for cheap if it worked out well ( instead of day going with a Broyles chance in round 2 like in the past ). 

Braverman was another who looks like a steal and maybe Lawler as well. 

As I say, loved our early to mid round going building up trenches and adding grisly types just felt a little more speculative upside could maybe have been chosen later on. Some good players seemed to be kicking about in Wright, Houston-Carson, Faniaka, Weatherly Jatavis Brown a bit earlier 

Would the long snapper and Ruddock have been drafted ? Is the long snapper clearly and definitively the best college snapper in the league ? 

Questions I don't know answers to.

liked the late RB add, very raw but with a great combo of speed and size. That's the kind of pick I like late ! 

Overall, more of a pontification than a complaint. 

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FWIW, Jay Lee our WR UDFA was fairly highly ranked by Zierlein...

 

 

ANALYSIS

Strengths

Has height/weight/speed combination that has NFL evaluators intrigued. Rare arm length (33 inches) for the position and uses it to his advantage. Has ability to reach throws that may fall just out of reach with some receivers and was able to adjust and snare an occasional low throw. Silky smooth in his movements with good footwork into and out of his breaks. Easy strider off the line of scrimmage and is able to chomp up cornerback cushion before they know what's happening. Hits second gear and presents an open vertical target. Has ability to gain yards in space after the catch and is physical in his finish. Relied upon to be blocker in screen game and has ability to control his block on perimeter.

Weaknesses

Ran limited number of routes in Baylor offense that looks to isolate defensive backs in space. Production might be skewed by scheme. Routes tend to be flat and rounded. Needs to prove he can win with separation underneath and with his in and out breaking routes. Inconsistent hands due to technique. Uses unorthodox hand placement and catches ball near his body leading to high drop rate. Wasn't forced to deal with press coverage much in wide-­open Big 12. Scouts question his confidence and whether he has swagger needed to reach his potential.

Draft Projection

Rounds 4 or 5

Bottom Line

Angular, fifth-­year senior working with the height/­weight/­speed triangle that evaluators look for. Lees senior tape flashed NFL potential as an outside receiver and he has the vertical traits to match. His ability as a run blocker may push him up a few boards, but whispers about his lack of confidence combined with his penchant for dropping throws will have evaluators watching him closely at the Senior Bowl.

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12 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Fuehne, Lee, and Farris look like they could make it to the practice squad and maybe, eventually onto the roster.

 

I think we still have weaknesses at backup DE and FS/CB depth. If Quinn goes down, who plays FS? I think we're screwed if that happens. It's sort of why I was looking at those big CB/FS hybrids (Hall, Houston-Carson) that can play deep safety (and have played CB previously or currently). Those two were also active on ST's, enabling them to be active there and help out, while learning the starting/backup positions.

I wouldn't be opposed to re-signing Tapp if he's still out there, just for depth. I don't remember seeing him sign anywhere. Good locker room guy.

Wilson and Bush are both FS types. I think S depth is a strength now. 

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12 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

 

I like this draft. Seems like the criticisms are nit picky at best. Really, our new GM's draft and we're bitching he didn't take enough skill guys? We're bitching about too much depth? Really? Good grief. 

I'm not gonna say that LS is the greatest use of a draft pick ever, but if he's our LS for even a few years, its probably a solid use of the pick. Like I said before, its like taking Martin. You can find a P elsewhere, but sometimes its worth a small investment to lock up the position with someone who execute their job well for 5-10 years 

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13 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

 

I think I could make about 4 changes and improve our draft immensely. Hate the last two picks. Don't see the need for Dahl, but I'll leave him for now as a depth thumper OG that I guess Quinn wants on our OL... But that LB'er is limited and you can get thumpers like him in any round, and Zettel is freaking overkill. And not a greatly skilled overkill either. Too small of a DT for the run, so even on passing downs, if he's tossed into the rotation and it's a draw he'll be wiped out, leaving a wide open lane... But maybe he's better than that. Anyways, I dropped our last two picks, pushed our LB'er selection to mid-6th, and dropped Zettel for a rush-DE:

 

1 Taylor Dekker, OT
2 A'Shawn Robinson, DT
3 Graham Glasgow, C/OG
4 Miles Killebrew, SS
5a Joe Dahl, OG
5b Deandre Houston-Carson, FS/CB
6a Jake Rudock, QB
6b Scooby Wright ILB, or Antwione Williams LB, or Aaron Wallace OLB, whoever is avail. (all 3?)
6c Stephen Weatherley, DE
7 Charone Peake, WR

The last two picks were terrible, just terrible. And help the damn secondary, dammit!!! Although I DO love the Killebrew pick... big time!!!

 

I'll never get why people get mad or even bother judging sixth and seventh round picks. Usually like two out of those 80 some pick even make a small dent, let alone a Brady or Norman like impact. At that point you might as well stick names and a hat, it really doesn't matter. 

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1 hour ago, Scottish caveman said:

Zettel seems to be Jason Jones at a much cheaper price ...good option for #6 rounder !

I'd like to see Jones back fwiw. He had a good year last year and if we aren't going to upgrade him let's bring him back and keep DE strong. Let Zettel and Gilberry compete for the #4 spot. Zettel to PS most likely. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we could squeeze a small amount of trade value(5ths maybe?) out of Wright and Swanson if they don't fit the plan. 

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I think most fans and talking heads would agree this draft was very uninspiring. In my opinion, it felt like a necessary evil...Quinn had a ton of glaring holes to fill, a lack of depth throughout our roster, AND below average starters (like Swanson...possibly even Tomlinson sooner than later) to replace.

It's disappointing we had to reach for so many OL when we have recently spent four top 3 picks over the last few years on OL. But the fact remains that even though so many resources were spent on the OL, it still absolutely had to be fixed. The only problem is, we are going from a very young and inexperienced offensive line last year, and replacing that with another extremely young and inexperienced offensive line this year.

Quinn has had a very "meh" offseason, losing Johnson (which may not have been his fault), keeping Caldwell (which may have been a Martha Ford decision), having a pretty uninspiring first draft leads me to believe that this team won't do anything of note for at least another few years while Quinn undoes all the damage Mayhew did. All of that being said, for the first time in over a decade I at least have some hope for the team.

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2 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

I'll never get why people get mad or even bother judging sixth and seventh round picks. Usually like two out of those 80 some pick even make a small dent, let alone a Brady or Norman like impact. At that point you might as well stick names and a hat, it really doesn't matter. 

I agree and if you can get some players from around the 4th to 7th round and UFA and they contribute on special teams, are a rotational player, etc, that is great.

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I think the timing of Quinn's hiring had more to do with him keeping Caldwell than anything else. He probably looked at the pool of remaining available candidates, saw no one who was appreciably better than Caldwell, and decided to keep the guy who was well respected in the clubhouse for the time being.

I agree that his draft has an eat-your-vegetables feel to it. It's what a lot of fans have been wanting for years.

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3 minutes ago, holygoat said:

I think the timing of Quinn's hiring had more to do with him keeping Caldwell than anything else. He probably looked at the pool of remaining available candidates, saw no one who was appreciably better than Caldwell, and decided to keep the guy who was well respected in the clubhouse for the time being.

I agree that his draft has an eat-your-vegetables feel to it. It's what a lot of fans have been wanting for years.

I agree on the timing.

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I'll never get why people get mad or even bother judging sixth and seventh round picks. Usually like two out of those 80 some pick even make a small dent, let alone a Brady or Norman like impact. At that point you might as well stick names and a hat, it really doesn't matter. 

Exactly.

Since 2010, 4.9% of 6th round draft picks have become starting players. http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#44b3f21d28ea. 6th round picks are LONG shots.

Does this new long snapper have a 50/50 chance of making the team? Might he lock down a key position on a squad that is responsible for, say, an average of three FGA and two XPA attempts a game - 11 points a game? Might he play for over a decade like Muhlbach? Not out of the question.

At the very least we've confirmed that Quinn believes you win on the lines and on special teams. We probably won't see a Quinn team lose a game because a defensive tackle missed an extra point.

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