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Pelfrey to the Tigers

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I don't think it particularly matters what stat you are using here, whether it be ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. The focus here should be on the theory that if Pelfry can survive 30 starts and generate 165 innings of 4.25-4.50 ERA/FIP/xFIP, that its a pretty tremendous boost from what we got last year from Lobstein, Boyd, Farmer, Ryan, Greene, and Wolf. Probably a full run better, if not more like 1 1/2 runs per nine.

The Tigers were 16-39 in the respective starts of that five headed monster. I think the Tigers can do better than a .290 winning percentage when the fifth spot comes around. Some of that will be on the offense to perform better, but having a guy capable of keeping them in games more often will help too.

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I don't think it particularly matters what stat you are using here, whether it be ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. The focus here should be on the theory that if Pelfry can survive 30 starts and generate 165 innings of 4.25-4.50 ERA/FIP/xFIP, that its a pretty tremendous boost from what we got last year from Lobstein, Boyd, Farmer, Ryan, Greene, and Wolf. Probably a full run better, if not more like 1 1/2 runs per nine.

The Tigers were 16-39 in the respective starts of that five headed monster. I think the Tigers can do better than a .290 winning percentage when the fifth spot comes around. Some of that will be on the offense to perform better, but having a guy capable of keeping them in games more often will help too.

I agree completely. There is more value to a mediocre fifth starter than a lot of people think. If you have to resort to getting 30 starts from rookies, you might get lucky but more often than not you are going to get a horrible result.

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Definitely, and you can certainly make an argument either way on the walks/strikeouts thing, just weird limitations to the stat. I suppose that's why they came up with xFIP. Still not a perfect stat, but I like it more. Pelfrey goes from 4.21 FIP to 4.54 xFIP (career) and 4.00 to 4.45 (2015)

That seems more in line with the kind of performance I'd expect from him...although honestly if he was to actually post a 4.45 ERA next year I'd be pretty thrilled with him.

Don't some pitchers have a true skill of being able to limit home runs though? In a particularly odd year I would lean toward xFIP, but for an extended career I think it's fair to look at career home run rate rather than league average.

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I agree completely. There is more value to a mediocre fifth starter than a lot of people think. If you have to resort to getting 30 starts from rookies, you might get lucky but more often than not you are going to get a horrible result.

Yes.

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I don't think it particularly matters what stat you are using here, whether it be ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. The focus here should be on the theory that if Pelfry can survive 30 starts and generate 165 innings of 4.25-4.50 ERA/FIP/xFIP, that its a pretty tremendous boost from what we got last year from Lobstein, Boyd, Farmer, Ryan, Greene, and Wolf. Probably a full run better, if not more like 1 1/2 runs per nine.

The Tigers were 16-39 in the respective starts of that five headed monster. I think the Tigers can do better than a .290 winning percentage when the fifth spot comes around. Some of that will be on the offense to perform better, but having a guy capable of keeping them in games more often will help too.

Agree with this as well. Our fifth starters last year were pretty much historically awful. Just getting a warm body in there will give us a significant number of wins back.

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Verlander

Sanchez

Zimmermann

Pelfrey

Is kind of like

Verlander

Sanchez

Price

Simon

Last year we had Greene/lobstein/farmer/Ryan

This year we have

Norris fulmer Boyd Greene lobstein Ryan farmer

That's so much better. At the same time, you could put Norris in the pelfrey spot and we would still be better than last year.

So I guess it's debatable whether pelfrey was necessary. But depth is good to have.

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Don't some pitchers have a true skill of being able to limit home runs though? In a particularly odd year I would lean toward xFIP, but for an extended career I think it's fair to look at career home run rate rather than league average.

I suspect that they do, and that Pelfrey is above average at it, and yet his HR/9 and HR/FB% have fluctuated pretty wildly throughout his career

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I suspect that they do, and that Pelfrey is above average at it, and yet his HR/9 and HR/FB% have fluctuated pretty wildly throughout his career

It doesn't look that wild to me.

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Has anyone on the board looked closely at all his starts last year ? It would be good to know if he pitched well in X% and got killed in a much smaller percent resulting in overall poor numbers. In other words throw out his worst and best 3 starts whats left ?

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It doesn't look that wild to me.

I was considering a .2 per 9 hr rate change to be pretty significant. Based on last year's leader that is the case unless you're Ian Kennedy or Jake Arrieta

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I suspect that they do, and that Pelfrey is above average at it, and yet his HR/9 and HR/FB% have fluctuated pretty wildly throughout his career

In the fangraphs analysis of the signing, it says it takes 1234 fly balls for HR rate to stabilize; Pelfrey is at 1287. So it's technically stable.

I'm sure tho it'll vary year to year just because .25 HR/9 is only like 4 hrs.

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I was considering a .2 per 9 hr rate change to be pretty significant. Based on last year's leader that is the case unless you're Ian Kennedy or Jake Arrieta

That's fine. I don't think that's a significant swing. Every pitcher with a relatively long career is going to have years where he is above his career average and years where he is below his career average.

I don't know what a normal fluctuation is though.

Sanchez has the following rates: 1.05 0.46 0.92 0.92 0.45 0.29 1.66

That seems like a wild fluctuation.

Verlander on the other hand has a number that starts with a .7 or .8 almost every year so that's a lot more consistent.

Anyway, I'm happy to rely on a guy with a below average career mark regardless of the degree of fluctuation.

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Has anyone on the board looked closely at all his starts last year ? It would be good to know if he pitched well in X% and got killed in a much smaller percent resulting in overall poor numbers. In other words throw out his worst and best 3 starts whats left ?

In 19 of his 30 starts Pelfry allowed 3 runs (total not earned) or fewer (Simon in 31 starts did this only 14 times).

Pelfry allowed 2 runs or fewer 15 times (Simon did this in 11 starts).

Pelfry allowed 5 runs or more only 5 times (Simon did this 11 starts).

Simon, however, pitched into the 6th inning 22 times; Pelfry only 17.

Belfry should be a solid upgrade over our #4 and 5 starters from last year. Good, cost effective move.

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On XM Avila just talked about potentially moving Pelfrey to the Pen for the 2nd season if the youngsters are ready. He specifically mentioned the 8th inning.

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On XM Avila just talked about potentially moving Pelfrey to the Pen for the 2nd season if the youngsters are ready. He specifically mentioned the 8th inning.

I've sort of been assuming this was the plan. I think the possibility is there this season, too.

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I've sort of been assuming this was the plan. I think the possibility is there this season, too.

I do to. It made me feel better that they don't feel locked into him as a starter just because he signed the contract he did.

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I've sort of been assuming this was the plan. I think the possibility is there this season, too.

It makes a lot of sense since he is so reliant on one pitch. He also throws pretty hard and should be able to throw even harder as a reliever.

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I sorta presumed that if he had a successful season in the rotation, and they felt they needed to bump him in 2017, that he would be pretty good trade bait at 1/$8mm.

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I do to. It made me feel better that they don't feel locked into him as a starter just because he signed the contract he did.

The contract he signed isn't that far off that going rate for solid-but-not-stellar middle relievers these days anyway.

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If he really gets that sinker locked down this year, he could probably be pretty effective in the bullpen. Combine that with his above average curve, and you have a guy who makes a sub-par starter, but an effective reliever.

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Thanks for this. Its really good news !

In 19 of his 30 starts Pelfry allowed 3 runs (total not earned) or fewer (Simon in 31 starts did this only 14 times).

Pelfry allowed 2 runs or fewer 15 times (Simon did this in 11 starts).

Pelfry allowed 5 runs or more only 5 times (Simon did this 11 starts).

Simon, however, pitched into the 6th inning 22 times; Pelfry only 17.

Belfry should be a solid upgrade over our #4 and 5 starters from last year. Good, cost effective move.

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