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eastside billee

Pelfrey to the Tigers

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classic lee, can't stay objective :classic:

JD had 5 fWAR last year, I don't see him matching that, if for no other reason than he can't possibly play that well defensively again. I think I have 3.5 for him, still 1 more than steamer. I'm pretty close to steamer on a lot of it, but with ~1 WAR bump ups for JV, JD, and Iggy. About 33 WAR total.

Hopefully he doesn't drop a steamer defensively.

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Even with this contract signing of Pelfrey, don't rule out trading him to a different team. This is highly unlikely, but perhaps AA caught wind of someone else wanting Pelfrey and simply beat them to the punch and will entertain offers to trade him for something that fits the Tigers better. He really couldn't be that smart or lucky can he?

Plus, there are certainly more pitchers out there still unsigned and you can never have too much pitching. Don't rule out another deal or two.

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See, there you go. Now we know it was a gut signing.

In all seriousness, if you believe Fangraphs, Pelfrey's a 2-win pitcher who was worth $16MM last year, and his fastball ticked up to 93. Plus, his BABIP was .334, suggesting unlucky.

On the other hand, only his curveball was on the positive side of runs above average, and he threw that only 9% of the time. It is also historically his best pitch, so maybe the Tigers plan to have him rely on it more.

This is pretty much why he's not a bad signing for what we paid for him. 1 WAR is going for about $8 million per year these days on the FA market. If his arm is healthy and his fastball is really going to be 93mph next year, and he uses the curveball a bit, and he induces a similar amount of grounders, he'll have no problem earning his paycheck.

$8 million per season isn't a ton of money to spend on a depth move these days, and he was worth at least that much, but probably more last year. Middle relievers are nearly making that much.

I'd much rather have Pelfrey on this deal than Lackey on what the Cubs gave him, which is about twice as much for a 37 year old pitcher.

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Even with this contract signing of Pelfrey, don't rule out trading him to a different team. This is highly unlikely, but perhaps AA caught wind of someone else wanting Pelfrey and simply beat them to the punch and will entertain offers to trade him for something that fits the Tigers better. He really couldn't be that smart or lucky can he?

Plus, there are certainly more pitchers out there still unsigned and you can never have too much pitching. Don't rule out another deal or two.

This ain't a video game son

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This ain't a video game son

Maybe if the Tiger management ran the team like a video game, they might have won a world series in recent years......... :)

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I don't really want Mike Pelfrey for free, so the fact the money could have been used on someone else is merely the tip of the iceberg for me.

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...

I'd much rather have Pelfrey on this deal than Lackey on what the Cubs gave him, which is about twice as much for a 37 year old pitcher.

I'd much rather have O'Day/ Clippard/ Bastardo at whatever rate it takes to get 1 of them, and a cheaper 5th starter option like Fister/ Young/ Simon.

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The Tigers haven't had a good long relief man since Smyly was traded........Maybe they do now.

$8M per year for long relief? Good grief.

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I'd much rather have O'Day/ Clippard/ Bastardo at whatever rate it takes to get 1 of them, and a cheaper 5th starter option like Fister/ Young/ Simon.

Why do you think those guys will be cheaper??

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I've got them at 84 wins without anybody having an exceptional year.

What if Ausmus has an exceptional year?

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Plus, there are certainly more pitchers out there still unsigned and you can never have too much pitching. Don't rule out another deal or two.

There's the reason for my angst of the Pelfrey deal. There are other pitchers out there. Why Pelfrey now and for two seasons? I'm not expecting Avila to sign all of the top tier pitchers and then force Norris to Toledo and Sanchez to the bullpen. It just seems like there are other avenues to go down.

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Refresh my memory. Since Simon was a 5th starter, what is his status now? Is he gone does he go to the pen?

In other breaking news, Idaho has officially transitioned from territory to state. :silly:

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Why do you think those guys will be cheaper??

Jon Heyman has the following projections:

Fister 2 years at $10M/per

Young 1 year at $7M

Simon (not listed, lowest salary projection is Lincecum at 1 year $5M + incentives).

Pelfrey (also not listed, and since CBS/ Heyman are in order of Avg Annual Salary, they expected him to sign at an annual rate also less then Lincecum at 1 year $5M).

Fangraphs has:

Fister 2 years at $10M/per

Young 1 year at $6M

Simon 1 year at $7M

Pelfrey 2 years at $8M/per

Other low cost Fangraphs predictions:

Brandon Morrow, 1 year $4M

Lincecum, 1 year $6M

Bud Norris, 2 years at $6M per (Braves signed him for 1 year $2.5M)

Guthrie, 1 year $4M

So... we'll see on Fister. I don't think he'll sign for 2 years at $10M per, but take a 1-year.

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Exactly. I think AA should have waited. There are so many starting pitchers on the market that some will end up in the bargain bin. Perhaps some of the new analytics guys project him to improve in Comerica. Maybe Chadd still wanted him. Who knows.

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It doesn't seem to be as bad of a deal as the initial reaction on this thread to the signing. We'll shall see but this may very well be close to market value for for a back end starter in free agency this year.

The one thing I would question is what many others have questioned is what does this mean for signing relievers? I personally would rather have signed O'Day or Soria to that 7 or 8 million per year deal and that appears to be the range the top relievers will sign for. There is nothing more demoralizing to a team than having bad middle relievers and not being able to get from the starters to the closer. I don't think these back end starters are worth as much as top middle relievers in my mind but I do think that is how the market will value them.

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It doesn't seem to be as bad of a deal as the initial reaction on this thread to the signing. We'll shall see but this may very well be close to market value for for a back end starter in free agency this year.

The one thing I would question is what many others have questioned is what does this mean for signing relievers? I personally would rather have signed O'Day or Soria to that 7 or 8 million per year deal and that appears to be the range the top relievers will sign for. There is nothing more demoralizing to a team than having bad middle relievers and not being able to get from the starters to the closer. I don't think these back end starters are worth as much as top middle relievers in my mind but I do think that is how the market will value them.

Completely disagree there. This back end starter will account for at least 3 times as many innings as the reliever, and it's easier to turn a mediocre starter (which the Tigers have plenty of in their system) into a good MLB reliever than a good MLB starter. You just have to know how to identify and turn them into successful relievers, something the Tigers have been worthless at. Maybe this new regime will do a better job of it.

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I'd much rather have O'Day/ Clippard/ Bastardo at whatever rate it takes to get 1 of them, and a cheaper 5th starter option like Fister/ Young/ Simon.

Fister/Young/Simon are all a step below Pelfrey at this point. Fister's completely out of gas. And Yong/Simon were worse last year.

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A fan could actually make a case that the BP is more (or as) important than a SP.

What's the average length per start in MLB? About 6 1/3 innings?

That leaves 8 outs to get. A shut-down closer would get 3 of them, leaving the arms in the BP to get the other 5 outs.

It's amazing how many games are won/lost by these 5 outs. Look at K.C. They had a shut-down BP and SP who were below the average in I.P. per start.

So they were a good example of the importance of a BP. Even the Tigers in 2012 thru 2014 when they had one of the best SP staffs in baseball? Their BP lost many games just trying to get those 5 outs or so. Too many pitchers are conditioned to wear out after 100 pitches or so.

And some of these guys are getting 1 million dollars per start? How in the world can baseball maintain that? Just amazing...some of these contracts being given out are beyond any reality...

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A fan could actually make a case that the BP is more (or as) important than a SP.

What's the average length per start in MLB? About 6 1/3 innings?

That leaves 8 outs to get. A shut-down closer would get 3 of them, leaving the arms in the BP to get the other 5 outs.

It's amazing how many games are won/lost by these 5 outs. Look at K.C. They had a shut-down BP and SP who were below the average in I.P. per start.

So they were a good example of the importance of a BP. Even the Tigers in 2012 thru 2014 when they had one of the best SP staffs in baseball? Their BP lost many games just trying to get those 5 outs or so. Too many pitchers are conditioned to wear out after 100 pitches or so.

And some of these guys are getting 1 million dollars per start? How in the world can baseball maintain that? Just amazing...some of these contracts being given out are beyond any reality...

Yes, the whole bullpen is more important than one fifth starter. One middle reliever probably isn't though.

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Looks like Madsen to A's for 3/22. He is 35. With that being the market I doubt AA goes after any of the big bullpen names. Perhaps AA should have retained AlAl at 2.1.

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At least Avila gets it. He knows sabremetricians won't be crazy about the signing and he is not going to try to spin it to them. He is taking a chance on a guy he thinks could improve. And he maybe has to pay a little more (and we are talking peanuts anyways) to lock that guy up early in free agency rather than take a chance on losing him late. I can respect that.

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At least Avila gets it. He knows sabremetricians won't be crazy about the signing and he is not going to try to spin it to them. He is taking a chance on a guy he thinks could improve. And he maybe has to pay a little more (and we are talking peanuts anyways) to lock that guy up early in free agency rather than take a chance on losing him late. I can respect that.

Yeah, it had to be a scout-based signing; there was not anything in the analytics (that I could find, anyway) to say he's going to bounce back. Other than maintained velocity and an improved slider down the stretch, I suppose, but that is basically scouting.

It would be interesting to find out what they think they see tho.

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