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Pelfrey to the Tigers

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... Less 'he's the 5th starter' more 'what could they have spent 8 million dollars on for EACH OF THE NEXT TWO SEASONS' instead...

Absolutely the KEY issue...

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His 2013 year absolutely sucked!!! I don't see how he gets 2 WAR in 2013. Nor in 2015 for that matter. Simply because he avoided HR's? Fangraphs gives him a huge WAR bump because he avoided HR's? All of his other peripherals were atrocious.

I guess I don't like Fangraphs.

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His 2013 year absolutely sucked!!! I don't see how he gets 2 WAR in 2013. Nor in 2015 for that matter. Simply because he avoided HR's? Fangraphs gives him a huge WAR bump because he avoided HR's? All of his other peripherals were atrocious.

I guess I don't like Fangraphs.

4 FIP should probably be around a 2 WAR, no?

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When several people were promoting getting A. Simon back, I sarcastically asked where Brad Penny is.

Well, that's what we basically got.

Actually, it's worse than getting Brad Penny because we only signed him to a 1-year deal.

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The level of spend and 2-year commitment to Pelfrey (wow) indicates that they think that he's likely to be a league-average pitcher.

I hope this means that they have loosened the purse strings....they could have a good rotation with or without an effective Pelfrey, but that relies on a few question marks all breaking in their favor.

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When several people were promoting getting A. Simon back, I sarcastically asked where Brad Penny is.

Well, that's what we basically got.

Actually, it's worse than getting Brad Penny because we only signed him to a 1-year deal.

Brad Penny was also good at one point so he had upside.

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If he's on the books for two years and ineffective, a young pitcher who might be just as good gets blocked b/c he can't be sent down or cut. I was ok with 1 year because if the season goes down the tubes you can dump him at the deadline and lose a portion of the salary.

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His 2013 year absolutely sucked!!! I don't see how he gets 2 WAR in 2013. Nor in 2015 for that matter. Simply because he avoided HR's? Fangraphs gives him a huge WAR bump because he avoided HR's? All of his other peripherals were atrocious.

I guess I don't like Fangraphs.

The crowdsourcing crowd predicted his salary

#38 Mike Pelfrey (P)

Median Years: 2

Median AAV: $8 million

Total: $16 million

Average Years: 2.1

Average AAV: $8.1 million

Total: $16.9 million

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If he's on the books for two years and ineffective, a young pitcher who might be just as good gets blocked b/c he can't be sent down or cut. I was ok with 1 year because if the season goes down the tubes you can dump him at the deadline and lose a portion of the salary.

Yeah....if it had been a one-year deal I would have treated it as a depth signing....I would have been unhappy with Pelfrey as a pitcher but he would have to "sing for his meals"....with a 2 year contract it "feels" like he's going to be guaranteed a start every 5 days....not good...2 years is just weird for a guy who is mediocre at best....especially for a team that is struggling to build a decent bullpen; we need all of the starting pitching we can get.

Look at me....I'm turning into sportz....

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If he's on the books for two years and ineffective, a young pitcher who might be just as good gets blocked b/c he can't be sent down or cut. I was ok with 1 year because if the season goes down the tubes you can dump him at the deadline and lose a portion of the salary.

I don't think Pelfrey will block any young talent. He'll be moved to the bullpen.

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If he's on the books for two years and ineffective, a young pitcher who might be just as good gets blocked b/c he can't be sent down or cut. I was ok with 1 year because if the season goes down the tubes you can dump him at the deadline and lose a portion of the salary.

If Pelfrey sucks and someone is tearing it up in the minors, they can easily move Pelfrey to the bullpen. He was very good against RHH last year.

I doubt you have to worry about someone other than Fulmer forcing his way to the bigs, and Fulmer will be on a innings limit.

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I don't think Pelfrey will block any young talent. He'll be moved to the bullpen.

It's been rare in the history of baseball that young pitching talent has been blocked. Spots are always opening up due to injuries or lack of effectiveness. This is one of the last things I'm worried about.

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A lot of people seem to like Chris Young but he has a 4.52 FIP and a 25% groundball percentage. Not sure he is any improvement.

Yep, it all depends on how much stock you put into the fielding independent stats. Young is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so his BABIP should be and is much lower. Pelfrey's has been about 70 points higher throughout his career.

But the FIP has Young in the 5.00s last year and Pelfrey low to mid 4.00s.

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I think people are overestimating what $8 million per gets you these days.

It's less about the $8 million a year than it is about the second year.

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It's less about the $8 million a year than it is about the second year.

Sometimes an extra year works out, sometimes it doesn't. For Jhonny Peralta it did. For Joe Nathan it didn't. I don't think 2 years is a big deal at only $8M for a 32 year old.

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I think in 2 years we're going to look back at this as entirely neutral. Not good, not bad, and the 2nd year won't be a big deal as we'll probably have traded him after this season.

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It's less about the $8 million a year than it is about the second year.

But it's also about timing.

Why sign Pelfrey now, when you can get same/ similar quality later in the off-season, usually at bargain rates? That's where this just doesn't make sense.

In relation to Chris Young, he didn't sign until late, for less than $1M. And was just as effective, if not moreso, than Pelfrey. Which rates higher? CY's ERA/ ERA+/ WHIP the past two years (3.65/3.06, 100/135, and 1.23/1.09 versus MP's '13/'15 of 5.19/4.26, 79/97, and 1.55/1.48) or Pelfrey's FIP in 2013 and 2015 (3.99/4.00 versus CY's '14/'15 of 5.02/ 4.52)?

Personally, I prefer guys who keep base runners off the basepaths and runs off the board. I don't care about FIP if a pitcher like MP keeps getting his *** kicked and letting in too many runs. And also, if CY has a high HR rate, is that improved significantly by moving to Comerica, negating some of MP's (FIP) advantage?

And just for comparison: Alfredo Simon the past two years (ERA, ERA+, WHIP and FIP: 3.44/ 5.05, 107/78, 1.21/1.44, 4.33/4.77). And I'll bet he signs a contract in January for 1 or 2 years at about $5M per. A guy who would be perfect to push into the bullpen when Fulmer is ready by mid-season. Numbers when he was a reliever in 2012/2013: 2.66/2.87, 156/132, 1.43/1.07, 3.19/3.96.

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But it's also about timing.

Why sign Pelfrey now, when you can get same/ similar quality later in the off-season, usually at bargain rates? That's where this just doesn't make sense.

In relation to Chris Young, he didn't sign until late, for less than $1M. And was just as effective, if not moreso, than Pelfrey. Which rates higher? CY's ERA/ ERA+/ WHIP the past two years (3.65/3.06, 100/135, and 1.23/1.09 versus MP's '13/'15 of 5.19/4.26, 79/97, and 1.55/1.48) or Pelfrey's FIP in 2013 and 2015 (3.99/4.00 versus CY's '14/'15 of 5.02/ 4.52)?

Personally, I prefer guys who keep base runners off the basepaths and runs off the board. I don't care about FIP if a pitcher like MP keeps getting his *** kicked and letting in too many runs. And also, if CY has a high HR rate, is that improved significantly by moving to Comerica, negating some of MP's (FIP) advantage?

And just for comparison: Alfredo Simon the past two years (ERA, ERA+, WHIP and FIP: 3.44/ 5.05, 107/78, 1.21/1.44, 4.33/4.77). And I'll bet he signs a contract in January for 1 or 2 years at about $5M per. A guy who would be perfect to push into the bullpen when Fulmer is ready by mid-season. Numbers when he was a reliever in 2012/2013: 2.66/2.87, 156/132, 1.43/1.07, 3.19/3.96.

There's always a Chris Young or a Pat Neshek that signs late for a bargain, but there's a lot more Brandon Beachy's and Gavin Floyd's and Joba Chamberlain's that do.

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According to BrooksBaseball, he scrapped his four seamer last year and threw 73% sinkers. He had his lowest walk and home run rates of his career as a result...actually it's probably just a random thing but I'm searching for something.

was top 10 in ground ball rate last year.

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Refresh my memory. Since Simon was a 5th starter, what is his status now? Is he gone does he go to the pen?

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There's always a Chris Young or a Pat Neshek that signs late for a bargain, but there's a lot more Brandon Beachy's and Gavin Floyd's and Joba Chamberlain's that do.

Yeah I know...

But I'm not even advocating grabbing the last pitcher standing... I think avoiding the early overpays (and I think we got lucky with Zimmermann in matchup/ cost/ opportunity/ etc...), especially in back-end starters, nets an opportunistic get at an affordable/ capable player.

I'm just guessing, and there's no way to prove this... but I think Pelfrey/ Young/ Simon/ similar can be had in January on a 1 year $5-8M salary, or 2 years at $10-12.

This is just my opinion, but I think we should have gone after a capable set-up reliever first (harder to get, lesser supply, easier to lose out on "our" guy) and waited out the 5th starter market. $5-6M for O'Day or Bastardo or Clippard plus $5M for Simon/ Young is more desirable to me then $8M for Pelfrey and $3M for...?

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Refresh my memory. Since Simon was a 5th starter, what is his status now? Is he gone does he go to the pen?

Free agent.

Gone.

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PS: And the unstated issue at this point is: How much budget do we have left for the BP?

Is it $2-3M for 1 reliever? Or $4-5M for 1 reliever, or maybe even two?

What kind of relievers are we going to be able to afford with what's remaining?

If Pelfrey's signing hurts our ability to get a quality reliever, and Chris Young ends up signing for 2 years $8-9M total, or something like that... Or Simon or someone similar signs in that area...

Then I might just be annoyed.

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