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Pelfrey to the Tigers

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For a moment I wondered whether we could blame this signing on "Tiger Killer Syndrome". You know, he dominates the Tigers, so Tigers sign him because that's what they see him as: a pitcher who dominates.

Nope. Dead average. And he doesn't even like facing the White Sox.

2015-12-03_16-21-16_zpsvzk7saot.jpg

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I love torsion of panties being displayed over the 5th starter. I wonder who the utility guy is going to be. I am saving my ANGAR for that.

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See, there you go. Now we know it was a gut signing.

In all seriousness, if you believe Fangraphs, Pelfrey's a 2-win pitcher who was worth $16MM last year, and his fastball ticked up to 93. Plus, his BABIP was .334, suggesting unlucky.

On the other hand, only his curveball was on the positive side of runs above average, and he threw that only 9% of the time. It is also historically his best pitch, so maybe the Tigers plan to have him rely on it more.

I'd hate to imagine how much they think an actually good pitcher is worth. Maybe the Tigers did get a steal with Zimmermann. If Pelfrey is worth 16 million a year, I would have held out for 40 million +.

It's hard for me to understand why they view someone highly when they have no history of success, bad 'classic' stats, and bad peripheral stats. I guess his walk rate was OK?

I love torsion of panties being displayed over the 5th starter. I wonder who the utility guy is going to be. I am saving my ANGAR for that.

Less 'he's the 5th starter' more 'what could they have spent 8 million dollars on for EACH OF THE NEXT TWO SEASONS' instead

Would you rather have Pelfrey or a couple of solid relief pitchers? Maybe a decent starting LF? I know which I think would have helped this team more.

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Pelfrey seems like a poor man's Porcello in terms of style, like an Alfredo Simon you can root for in terms of results.

2 years isn't an issue for me since the injury risk seems low; I doubt he's going to be worse in 2017 than he is in 2016. Hopefully he's worth $8M/year tho.

It will be interesting to see the logic behind targeting Pelfrey; maybe the scouts liked the sinker, maybe analytics liked the GB% and HR%.

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I'd hate to imagine how much they think an actually good pitcher is worth. Maybe the Tigers did get a steal with Zimmermann. If Pelfrey is worth 16 million a year, I would have held out for 40 million +.

It's hard for me to understand why they view someone highly when they have no history of success, bad 'classic' stats, and bad peripheral stats. I guess his walk rate was OK?

Less 'he's the 5th starter' more 'what could they have spent 8 million dollars on for EACH OF THE NEXT TWO SEASONS' instead

Would you rather have Pelfrey or a couple of solid relief pitchers? Maybe a decent starting LF? I know which I think would have helped this team more.

These would be great arguments if you knew the premises to be true, but you don't. I don't particularly like the signing, I just think that it is getting far more attention than it deserves, especially since we don't know all of the details yet.

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I cannot understand this move. I will read what others have to say as this conversation continues, but I can't see how Pelfrey warrants a contract at all given , what a 1.47 WHIP last year?

At the very best, this is a head sctatcher because it appears to be totally senseless.

In the simplest terms, his FIP and xFIP put him around a 4.25 ERA. He does a good job at preventing home runs. He'll only be 32, and he maintained velocity last season.

The downsides: 1. the lack of strikeouts and swings and misses. 2. He gets more GBs than average but is not close to elite in that. 3. He improved his walk-rate, but again it's not close to elite.

The recipe for him to be successful is to maintain his HR/FB rate, and improve one of those 3 things (I think a BB/9 > 2 is the most likely).

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Also worth noting, he an had excellent K/BB rate the 2nd half of the season, and his whiffs generated with the slider seemed to tick up. This coincided with fewer GBs, however.

But maybe somebody in the org saw and believed in something there.

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Less 'he's the 5th starter' more 'what could they have spent 8 million dollars on for EACH OF THE NEXT TWO SEASONS' instead

Agree. I feel the money could have been better spent. Now, if the luxury tax cap isn't important this year and they end up going over, then it doesn't matter. But if we can't do better then Maybin and Collins in LF because we signed Pelfry @ 2/16, then it's an issue to me.

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These would be great arguments if you knew the premises to be true, but you don't. I don't particularly like the signing, I just think that it is getting far more attention than it deserves, especially since we don't know all of the details yet.

They signed a bad player for 8 million a year for 2 seasons. I don't see what's so complicated about not liking the move. It's bad and wasted a bunch of money they could have spent on literally anything else. Cut the price of hot and ready pizzas back to five bucks and I'd be happier than having Mike Pelfrey.

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I like Pelfrey, his stuff was better in 2015 than it had been in a long time. He was tough in his other starts besides the May game vs. the Tigers.

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They signed a bad player for 8 million a year for 2 seasons. I don't see what's so complicated about not liking the move. It's bad and wasted a bunch of money they could have spent on literally anything else. Cut the price of hot and ready pizzas back to five bucks and I'd be happier than having Mike Pelfrey.

I don't know that I'd call him bad. 165 IP with a 4.26 ERA is not terrible. League average starter in the AL had a 4.10 ERA.

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They signed a bad player for 8 million a year for 2 seasons. I don't see what's so complicated about not liking the move. It's bad and wasted a bunch of money they could have spent on literally anything else. Cut the price of hot and ready pizzas back to five bucks and I'd be happier than having Mike Pelfrey.

They signed a meh player for meh-ish money. Nobody is arguing that you should like it, I just think that it isn't significant enough to get as worked up about as some are.

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I'm not surprised, and don't mind the move so much, but I do dislike multiple years here. There was no need to go 2-years on Pelfrey.

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However, because they refused to go to a second 2nd tier SP here, they pretty much are required to go get a legitimate LF. If they plan to start 2016 with the same talent level as 2015, that is.

Price + Cespedes + Soria > Zimmermann + Maybin + Krod

Going big on another SP would have been the easiest way to even that out. But with Pelfrey, that pretty much regulates us to finding a real LF. That was my preference anyways.

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2 years of the great Oliver Perez, lol.

yeah, that's worse than signing Pelfrey. 7-8 million can get you a better reliever than Perez. 7-8 is not going to get you a good starter.

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However, because they refused to go to a second 2nd tier SP here, they pretty much are required to go get a legitimate LF. If they plan to start 2016 with the same talent level as 2015, that is.

Price + Cespedes + Soria > Zimmermann + Maybin + Krod

Going big on another SP would have been the easiest way to even that out. But with Pelfrey, that pretty much regulates us to finding a real LF. That was my preference anyways.

Zimmermann + Maybin + KRod + Norris + Labourt + Boyd + Fulmer + Cessa + Jones > Price + Soria + Cespedes

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Pelfrey Sucks. Might as well of just given the job to Boyd until Fulmer is ready and used that $8million on Oday/Sipp/Clippard.

+1

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...

Leake

2013 4.04 fip 2.0 war

2014 3.88 fip 2.3 war

2015 4.20 fip 1.7 war

Pelfrey

2013 3.99 fip 2.0 war

2014 injured 7.57 fip (-0.6) war

2015 4.0 fip 2.0 war

Where are you getting your WAR #'s?

I don't see Pelfrey with over 2 WAR since 2010 (per ESPN and Baseball Reference):

2010 - ESPN 2.3 BR 2.5

2011 - ESPN 0.0 BR 0.4

2012 - ESPN 0.9 BR 0.8

2013 - ESPN (0.3) BR (0.3)

2014 - ESPN (0.7) BR (0.7)

2015 - ESPN 1.4 BR 1.4

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Zimmermann + Maybin + KRod + Norris + Labourt + Boyd + Fulmer + Cessa + Jones > Price + Soria + Cespedes

Plus they basically got nothing from Verlander until after the towel was thrown.

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