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Who will be the 5th starter?

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I think we could go about filling this position one of three ways.

1. Internally. Greene, Fulmer, Boyd, Lobstein, Ryan or Farmer. I see this as unlikely, particularly given Avila's comments that we would be looking to add another SP. Further, this is the type of SP depth you need to be a competitive ball club that can endure injuries and the unforeseen. It's really been one of the Achilles heels under DD, the lack of depth.

2. Wait out the Free Agency period, and sign one of the last remaining SP available (presumably on a team friendly contract). Each year we see decent innings eaters who are stuck without a contract and sign for what seems to be under market contracts. With more FA starting pitching available than ever before, clearly there are going to be a couple of decent under market deals available come February. But these kind of pitchers will still require a long term commitment, and it remains unseen if the Tigers will want to have four SP's under long term contract. Particularly if they are convinced that Fulmer or Boyd can take the spot in a year or so. Therefore I would guess that it's probably unlikely we will go this route.

3. Stop Gap or Guy Looking to Rebuild Value on a ST deal. I think this is the most likely route, and we could likely get this done in the $7-10 million range (plus some incentives, maybe). A stop gap guy meaning someone like Simon, Pelfrey, Lewis, or Colon. Or a guy coming off injuries or a poor season and needing a 1-year deal to rebuild value like Fister, Beachy, Latos, Linecum, and Morrow. Or I guess to take it a step further, they could sign a couple of lottery ticket guys to minor league deals and let them compete. Guys like Masterson, Billingsley, Gee, Detweiler, and Cahill. That's never been DD's methodology, so I doubt Avila goes the lottery ticket route, but it's a possibility.

masterson owns a house just outside indianapolis. thats a 5 hr drive to detroit. he could be the 5th starter tigers end up signing.

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I agree with this. Greene is good to have but he's a big question mark. I am guessing they will bring in someone like Fister (who I doubt will cost close to $15 million) or Young, to be the fifth starter. However, they are probably going to need at least 7 starters to get through the season, so depth is important and Greene can provide that.

I agree with this, I like Greene as depth.

I think we'll be shooting a little higher than Fister/Young.

I think the #5 is going to be Norris.

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I agree with this, I like Greene as depth.

I think we'll be shooting a little higher than Fister/Young.

I think the #5 is going to be Norris.

Boy, this is a tough crowd. If Norris stays healthy and his stuff is our #5 we are going to win 100 games!

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Oh good gravy....Masterson??? He has one good pitch on a good day, his slider...everything else is crap and has been for years...gaahhh.

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Boy, this is a tough crowd. If Norris stays healthy and his stuff is our #5 we are going to win 100 games!

I'm predicting more spend on the pitching staff than others are.

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I'm predicting more spend on the pitching staff than others are.

I'm thinking more along the lines of where Norris ends up in the pecking order no matter who the other pitchers are. If he's not our #1 or #2 by mid-season I will be disappointed in his development. Maybe I'm too pitch chart happy but his stuff is pretty unique from that view.

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I'm predicting more spend on the pitching staff than others are.

If Illitch and Avila really want to spend on a #4/#5 starter, I think Ian Kennedy is the most likely guy. I don't see them going after the Kazmir/Leake tier.

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John Lackey makes a ton of sense. You would only go two years max on him and he's tied to compensation at his age may limit his suitors. He was lucky this year but he still a solid 2.5 win pitched that will eat innings and knows his to pitch, similar to when we signed Kenny Rogers.

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I'm thinking more along the lines of where Norris ends up in the pecking order no matter who the other pitchers are. If he's not our #1 or #2 by mid-season I will be disappointed in his development. Maybe I'm too pitch chart happy but his stuff is pretty unique from that view.

Oh, I see what you meant by "tough crowd"....I do not mean to downplay Norris's potential, he's a special talent, but I hesitate to put such high expectations on him for 2016....I see a great changeup and good stuff overall, but he's got to put it together over 150+ innings effectively as a rookie. I also wonder if the thyroid thing might affect his durability a little.

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I'm thinking more along the lines of where Norris ends up in the pecking order no matter who the other pitchers are. If he's not our #1 or #2 by mid-season I will be disappointed in his development. Maybe I'm too pitch chart happy but his stuff is pretty unique from that view.

Wow! I'm gonna guess he'll be projected for 8 or 9 wins and 150 innings by the Baseball Prospectus types.

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Alfredo "Big Pasta" Simon. Fister and Masterson are done. Or somebody like a Bud Norris. (I know he's not available.)

I think Simon could be decent in the bullpen a depth guy, but not much else and he thinks he's a starter.

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you're all thinking too high. It's gotta be a one year $5 Million type dude. Colon maybe. Somebody like that.

I think Colon @ $5M would be fantastic. If he were available at that rate right now, there's no reason to not sign him. He's 42, and there's risk there, but he's shown no signs of slowing down. He's improved his SO/W over the past few seasons and maintained a fairly tidy FIP & WHIP. The assumption of going from the NL to the AL is that his numbers will suffer, but he's also moving from the Mets, not the best defensive team in the land, to the Tigers with a pretty strong middle of the diamond defense.

Colon Stats

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No matter who they sign, I would bet that Norris was the fifth starter so they can watch his innings.

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Fullmer, at some point this season. But I guess they will sign Hisashi Iwakuma. Maybe Fister.

Sure wishing they kick the tyres on Mr. Lincecum, though :-)

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I think we could go about filling this position one of three ways.

1. Internally. Greene, Fulmer, Boyd, Lobstein, Ryan or Farmer. I see this as unlikely, particularly given Avila's comments that we would be looking to add another SP. Further, this is the type of SP depth you need to be a competitive ball club that can endure injuries and the unforeseen. It's really been one of the Achilles heels under DD, the lack of depth.

2. Wait out the Free Agency period, and sign one of the last remaining SP available (presumably on a team friendly contract). Each year we see decent innings eaters who are stuck without a contract and sign for what seems to be under market contracts. With more FA starting pitching available than ever before, clearly there are going to be a couple of decent under market deals available come February. But these kind of pitchers will still require a long term commitment, and it remains unseen if the Tigers will want to have four SP's under long term contract. Particularly if they are convinced that Fulmer or Boyd can take the spot in a year or so. Therefore I would guess that it's probably unlikely we will go this route.

3. Stop Gap or Guy Looking to Rebuild Value on a ST deal. I think this is the most likely route, and we could likely get this done in the $7-10 million range (plus some incentives, maybe). A stop gap guy meaning someone like Simon, Pelfrey, Lewis, or Colon. Or a guy coming off injuries or a poor season and needing a 1-year deal to rebuild value like Fister, Beachy, Latos, Linecum, and Morrow. Or I guess to take it a step further, they could sign a couple of lottery ticket guys to minor league deals and let them compete. Guys like Masterson, Billingsley, Gee, Detweiler, and Cahill. That's never been DD's methodology, so I doubt Avila goes the lottery ticket route, but it's a possibility.

I'd like a stop gap guy. I would also like some depth in Toledo. No teams top 5 starts are ever healthy the whole season. Given Sanchez & Verlander's injury history the past couple years, they need some of those AAAA guys stashed away in Toledo.

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Everybody mocks Alfredo Simon, but I don't see the problem with him being the 5th starter. Obviously I'd rather us sign somebody better, but if we're just going to take a flyer on guys I don't see the problem with Simon. Out of his 31 starts last year, 15 of them he gave up 2 runs or less. So basically half of his starts he gave us a really good chance to win. What more could you ask from a number 5 starter?

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Yeah, Simon would not be the worst. I think every team has a ****** 5th starter. The goal is to not have all five guys be ******.

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