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Heyman: Zimmermann and Tigers Have Reached a Deal

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I don't "hate" stats. Some of these advanced stats are getting a bit ridiculous though. They shouldn't fully replace sound qualitative "gut" experience. Otherwise we should all just have robots as managers.

The kind of "stat" that you made up as a joke reminds me of the really questionable traditional "split" stats (batting avg with RISP, for example, or limited history against a certain pitcher covering 20 or fewer at-bats) that broadcasters used to cite....

.....nowadays astute broadcasters like Dan D bring up more useful but non-traditional stats like BABIP, wOBA, WAR, and so on.

I took your comment to mean that you want stats to be meaningful....if so, you'll appreciate many of the stats created in the last 20 years, since they tell a more meaningful story than some of the older split stats did.

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Good signing. Good value. Now go get one of Kennedy/Chen/Fister/Kazmir and you have a pretty solid top 5, assuming everyone stays healthy...

Get at least one of Sipp/Oday/Clippard and you have the makings of a decent BP, well at least a lot better than years past.

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My point is, I don't care how many ground balls a guy induced with direct sunlight at 70 degrees or below. Some of these are getting so detailed that they don't hold much meaning anymore. I am not implying many of them aren't useful. I just think blind reliance on the entire saber-metrics bible is a bit silly.

There are sabermetrics that record stats in every situation....then there's the far more interesting/meaningful analytical stats that look to identify the underlying skill level of a player. Stats that break down pitcher inputs (types of pitches, velocity, break) and outcomes (what batters do with those different pitches) is a great way to measure a pitcher's skills and also to identify where a pitcher may be gaining strength and where he may be "losing it".

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Zimmermann's splits are interesting:

He had a low K rate, high WHIP, but few homers in first half. In contrast, he had a high k rate, low WHIP but a bunch of home runs in the second half. I wonder if he made an adjustment at mid-season which helped in one way, but hurt him another way.

Jordan Zimmermann 2015 Pitching Splits | Baseball-Reference.com

Probably a fluke. Like that year Benoit gave up a bunch of homers while the rest of his peripherals were excellent.

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The kind of "stat" that you made up as a joke reminds me of the really questionable traditional "split" stats (batting avg with RISP, for example, or limited history against a certain pitcher covering 20 or fewer at-bats) that broadcasters used to cite....

.....nowadays astute broadcasters like Dan D bring up more useful but non-traditional stats like BABIP, wOBA, WAR, and so on.

I took your comment to mean that you want stats to be meaningful....if so, you'll appreciate many of the stats created in the last 20 years, since they tell a more meaningful story than some of the older split stats did.

I don't disagree. I'm simply saying there can be too much of a good thing. Sometimes this becomes overload. I'm not saying I don't think advancements in the game haven't been beneficial. I'm simply saying that managers of the past didn't have all this information and many were damn successful just doing it the old fashioned way. There needs to be a balance. Otherwise it just becomes a video game.

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Oh, and nice signing....good pitcher, doesn't appear to be an overpay.

The second guy they get doesn't need to be in Zimm's league, but should be at least a solid innings eater.

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Good signing. Good value. Now go get one of Kennedy/Chen/Fister/Kazmir and you have a pretty solid top 5, assuming everyone stays healthy...

Get at least one of Sipp/Oday/Clippard and you have the makings of a decent BP, well at least a lot better than years past.

That would be a VERY nice offseason for the pitching staff....I would be thrilled.

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The Tigers just hired about five stat guys, so get used to it.

Thankfully none of them were compensation eligible free agents.

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I don't disagree. I'm simply saying there can be too much of a good thing. Sometimes this becomes overload. I'm not saying I don't think advancements in the game haven't been beneficial. I'm simply saying that managers of the past didn't have all this information and many were damn successful just doing it the old fashioned way. There needs to be a balance. Otherwise it just becomes a video game.

I agree that (IMO) there is a major human element that successful managers get "right"....I **believe** that Leyland was really good at that, Ausmus not so much...but that is of course just my opinion.

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Gut is very measurable.

Yup. Mine feels a bit projected after Thanksgiving. I predict that I'm going to hate the gym tomorrow.

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Good to hear. Hope they didn't pay TOO much.

This is a HUGE piece to the puzzle because we now have two starters (Norris) with double-consonants in their names. Zimmermann has a set of them, in fact. Greene is a bonus because his are vowels.

This could be the next "er" rotation.

VerlandER, FistER, ScherzER, and the possibility of TurnER.

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That would be a VERY nice offseason for the pitching staff....I would be thrilled.

Clippard walks too many batters, and isn't a ground ball pitcher. I don't think he's a good fit.

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I don't disagree. I'm simply saying there can be too much of a good thing. Sometimes this becomes overload. I'm not saying I don't think advancements in the game haven't been beneficial. I'm simply saying that managers of the past didn't have all this information and many were damn successful just doing it the old fashioned way. There needs to be a balance. Otherwise it just becomes a video game.

I agree with the bolded part. Teams should use all the information available to them whether it comes from stats, observation or experience or whatever. I don't see much evidence that teams are using too much statistics though. There are still an awful lot of moves made in baseball that don't agree with the numbers, so it's not like the human element has been eliminated as you seem to be suggesting.

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Clippard walks too many batters, and isn't a ground ball pitcher. I don't think he's a good fit.

I agree on Clippard's walks (and HR)....I'd certainly prefer either one of the other two guys listed in his post.

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Actually, I don't think it's that much of a coup, since Zimmermann had a substantially worse season in 15 than he did in 14. Plus, since he signed on before the calendar even flipped to December, he and his agent obviously thought 5/110 was the best he was going to get. If they thought he could get six years or better, he'd still be on the market.

I don't think every player always gets the best possible deal they can get. He may have passed up more money by signing early but it also takes away the risk of losing what is on the table. Also, not average agent is instructed by the player wait as long as necessary to get a deal to get their maximum dollar. Some players might like the offer they get one from a team and not feel like it is necessary to take that offer to other teams to see if they will beat it. My guess is that is what happened here. Zimmerman felt like the Tigers were negotiating in a price range that was fair value and he didn't feel the need to extract every penny possible out of free agency so he made it relatively easy to get a deal done.

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I don't think every player always gets the best possible deal they can get. He may have passed up more money by signing early but it also takes away the risk of losing what is on the table. Also, not average agent is instructed by the player wait as long as necessary to get a deal to get their maximum dollar. Some players might like the offer they get one from a team and not feel like it is necessary to take that offer to other teams to see if they will beat it. My guess is that is what happened here. Zimmerman felt like the Tigers were negotiating in a price range that was fair value and he didn't feel the need to extract every penny possible out of free agency so he made it relatively easy to get a deal done.

You're probably right. I would agree with the idea that Zimmermann and his agent came into the offseason with a target, and the would take the first offer with a good team that came very close to the target. Maybe the target was 5/115, and as you suggest, decided not to wait to see whether a better team came at them with that exact number or better. In that case, 5/110 from the Tigers is a good offer and worth taking.

I still think if they thought they could get six years, they wouldn't have signed with the Tigers today.

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Clippard walks too many batters, and isn't a ground ball pitcher. I don't think he's a good fit.

He walks guys, but he doesnt give up many hits. His line the past 3 years: .176/.259/.295.

He is light years better than most of the bums we are used to seeing in this BP. I would gladly take him.

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It's a buyers market for pitchers like Zimmermann. I think Zimmermann is the best of the tier two's, unless you consider Cueto tier two, but the Tigers had a lot of other options. Better to take a good deal now then hold out and have the real possibility of not being signed until February for a shorter cheaper contract.

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I really like how Avila is getting business taken care of early this off season. Most of the work is done, we'll see if the Tigers make a roster move to keep the 40 man roster at 38. I think they will.

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It's a buyers market for pitchers like Zimmermann. I think Zimmermann is the best of the tier two's, unless you consider Cueto tier two, but the Tigers had a lot of other options. Better to take a good deal now then hold out and have the real possibility of not being signed until February for a shorter cheaper contract.

The flip side of that is that, by waiting for Price, Greinke and Cueto to sign first, Zimmermann might have benefited from inflation driven by the bigger numbers they would have signed for, and might have even gotten an extra year, or at least might have gotten another, say, $15MM or $20MM. No way to know that now.

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You're probably right. I would agree with the idea that Zimmermann and his agent came into the offseason with a target, and the would take the first offer with a good team that came very close to the target. Maybe the target was 5/115, and as you suggest, decided not to wait to see whether a better team came at them with that exact number or better. In that case, 5/110 from the Tigers is a good offer and worth taking.

I still think if they thought they could get six years, they wouldn't have signed with the Tigers today.

I'm guessing that Zimmerman's agent is not Scott Boras.

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I really like how Avila is getting business taken care of early this off season. Most of the work is done, we'll see if the Tigers make a roster move to keep the 40 man roster at 38. I think they will.

I believe they have to make a decision on tendering contracts by this Wednesday. So, Neftali Feliz might be removed from the roster.

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I believe they have to make a decision on tendering contracts by this Wednesday. So, Neftali Feliz might be removed from the roster.

Correct

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Justin Verlander ‏@JustinVerlander 1h1 hour ago

Happy the rumors were true! Welcome to #Detroit @JZimmermann27 !! #GoTigersGo

Edited by Keepleyland2

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