Jump to content

Shinma

11/22/15. Raiders at Lions. Week 11. CBS, 1:05pm.

Recommended Posts

I am assuming that if we do get a new GM, along with them will come a host of new scouts and player personnel people. With new front office personnel, I assume that a better, more successful talent evaluation process will be included. If you give the Lions a higher draft slot that increases the likelihood of a new GM coming in here and having the opportunity to trade down and stockpile picks. Assuming that the GM and their regime are better at what they do, acquiring more picks gives this team a chance to maximize talent level at every position. It's all about options here and in certain situations like this, it's better to have more options.

Your post was five sentences: If, assume, if, assume, conclusion. There is nothing resembling a clear path between draft position and subsequent success. Nothing. Especially in the next draft.

You can root for the Lions to lose. But maybe it would be better if you did that from Philly's message board on Thursday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your post was five sentences: If, assume, if, assume, conclusion. There is nothing resembling a clear path between draft position and subsequent success. Nothing. Especially in the next draft.

You can root for the Lions to lose. But maybe it would be better if you did that from Philly's message board on Thursday.

And what evidence other than one cherry picked draft did you post to counteract anyone whose called for a higher draft slot? Also, why do team have evaluation charts based of off draft order and position value if where you pick has no correlation to success? They do it because they recognize that by in large, there is better talent in the upper-end of the draft. BTW, thanks for telling me where to post Bill Keenist.

Edited by Mr.TaterSalad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And what evidence other than one cherry picked draft did you post to counteract anyone whose called for a higher draft slot? Also, why do team have evaluation charts based of off draft order and position value if where you pick has no correlation to success? They do it because they recognize that by in large, there is better talent in the upper-end of the draft. BTW, thanks for telling me where to post Bill Keenist.

You're welcome Mike Valenti.

And BTW, what evidence have you posted? None. Just assumptions, based on the unsubstantiated premise that higher draft picks always lead to better players. It just doesn't work like that.

Edited by Jason_R

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Besides, nobody is calling for year over year losing. We all want to see the Lions develop long-term success. Some of us, at least myself anyways, see losing as a very short-term, strategic effort to maximize value. You are more likely to maximize value by drafting higher, whether maximization means having a better shot at any player you want or being able to have more flexibility to move down and stockpile picks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those of you who want the Lions to keep on winning for the sake of winning and don't value strategic losses, I have a question. Do you think winning increases the likelihood that White and Caldwell stay? If so, can we be successful with those two at the helm long-term?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For those of you who want the Lions to keep on winning for the sake of winning and don't value strategic losses, I have a question. Do you think winning increases the likelihood that White and Caldwell stay? If so, can we be successful with those two at the helm long-term?

No and yes.

We obviously don't know much about White,but he was supposedly responsible for finding some of our better gems. Mathis was one I know. I don't want him because he is internal and likely not the best candidate, but can we have success with him? Sure.

I've seen Caldwell take a team to the SB and I've seen him take us to 11-5, so I can't say with a straight face that he's completely incapable of success either. Especially with good coordinators. Again, don't want him, but.......

and if we are some how 9-7 or even 8-8, that would be a pretty strong 2 year record to get fired with.

That said, we likely don't win out and we likely don't keep either guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For those of you who want the Lions to keep on winning for the sake of winning and don't value strategic losses, I have a question. Do you think winning increases the likelihood that White and Caldwell stay? If so, can we be successful with those two at the helm long-term?

White will be the Rooney Rule candidate.

Anyway, you can't control the future by rooting for the team to lose, any more than you can keep a bowling ball out of the gutter by leaning to the left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Atlanta holds the 6th spot but has lost 3 straight games and looks like they are in free fall mode. They also gotta play Carolina twice, so 8 wins looks like it will be enough to get the 6th spot. The Lions have 2 nationally televised thursday games at home coming up and then 4 teams with losing records. If they win 5 of them they get to 8 wins which depending on the tie breakers could be enough to get in. I know it maybe unlikely but the NFC hasn't looked good this year save for Carolina and the Lions have a bunch of winnable games coming up. Why wouldn't you want to see what happens instead of throwing in the towel on the season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There has been a lot of analysis of NHL and MLB drafts that while baskets of draft slots do better than others (e.g, top 5 picks of 1st round usually turn out better than middle 5 picks of 1st round; mid-1st round picks typically turn out better than early 2nd round picks) there is a lot of variation and if you were to go back and "re-draft" 5 years later based on how careers turned out, the re-draft would be hardly recognizable compared to the original. I'm not aware of such studies for the NFL but I'm sure they're out there and, sure, given that the NFL drafts older players than the NHL and MLB and after 4 years of college, I'm certain that NFL picks are somewhat more predictable.

But I still don't think the difference between #5 and #8 is that much. #5 and #15 sure. And if we're talking about the last game of the season, OK. But we have 6 more games to play. And surely the "journey" counts for something - I took pleasure out of the Lions breaking the Lambeau streak, I'd take pleasure out of the Lions winning on Thanksgiving because they've been embarrassed often enough, I'd take pleasure in derailing the Packers division title hopes the following week, i'd take pleasure in finishing ahead of Bears fans on the season. Granted, these are only tiny drops of pleasure and I'd gladly defer them all if it meant a clearer road to a playoff win a year or two down the road. But I don't see it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TaterSalad why are you even here?

What the hell is the difference between the 4th pick and the 8th pick? Nothing... NOTHING look up the last 20 drafts some 4s are good some 8s are good..

Tell my 4 year old son at the game today that the lions should have lost to draft 4 slots higher...

I want them to win every game. I know they will always stink I know we are cursed but cheering makes me think that "if" they actually win something some day It will all be worth it.

And I know I'm a terrible father for bringing my kids to a Lions game...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For those of you who want the Lions to keep on winning for the sake of winning and don't value strategic losses, I have a question. Do you think winning increases the likelihood that White and Caldwell stay? If so, can we be successful with those two at the helm long-term?

For those of you prattling on about "strategic" losses: would you prefer that the team not challenge itself and to improve, as discussed in this article (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/columnists/john-niyo/2015/11/22/niyo-lions-defense-challenges-play-better/76243420/)? Would you prefer the season deteriorate into finger-pointing, blaming, and lack of trust? Would you want frustrated players demanding to be traded or released at the end of the season, or coaches bad-mouthing players who quit on the season - both of which could lead to wholesale roster changes?

Edit: Also, what if a few more "strategic" losses lead Calvin or Stafford to pull a Barry Sanders? Were all the losses the Lions piled up with Barry Sanders "strategic" -- or were they just losses that, over time, wore down a great player?

Edited by Jason_R

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Atlanta holds the 6th spot but has lost 3 straight games and looks like they are in free fall mode. They also gotta play Carolina twice, so 8 wins looks like it will be enough to get the 6th spot. The Lions have 2 nationally televised thursday games at home coming up and then 4 teams with losing records. If they win 5 of them they get to 8 wins which depending on the tie breakers could be enough to get in. I know it maybe unlikely but the NFC hasn't looked good this year save for Carolina and the Lions have a bunch of winnable games coming up. Why wouldn't you want to see what happens instead of throwing in the towel on the season?

Need to win all 6 to have any kind of shot. Seattle is 5-5 and "defeated" the Lions head to head, I don't see the Seahawks finishing worse than 8-8. But yep, until the Lions incur their 8th loss or 9th loss for sure, why not keep cheering for them and let it play out. If the Lions are as bad as some say they are (not without good reason), our rooting for them will be a waste anyways and they'll end up in the high draft position that many covet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How about those that want the lions to lose get to root for a loss without being ridiculed and called names, and those that want the Lions to win can root for them to win without being ridiculed and called names. Deal?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What the hell is the difference between the 4th pick and the 8th pick? Nothing... NOTHING look up the last 20 drafts some 4s are good some 8s are good..

I'm not talking about the difference between 4th and 8th. I'm talking about the difference between 4th and 14th. Look at the 2011 draft. Before the last three games of the season they were inline to pick 5th (I believe). Then, they went on a meaningless winning streak and ended up picking 13th. In-terms of actual player value, that sent them from Patrick Peterson to Nick Fairley. I'm not sure about you, but I would much rather give those three wins back if it meant Peterson were a Lion right now. And yes, maybe they gained some rah-rah confidence by winning those games and it carried over to the next season, but maybe it didn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How about those that want the lions to lose get to root for a loss without being ridiculed and called names, and those that want the Lions to win can root for them to win without being ridiculed and called names. Deal?

I had no intention of subjecting you to ridicule. I think you're one of the smartest posters on the board, and one of the few whose posts are consistently worth reading, though I may disagree with you on this point.

My post had a narrower target, and I think it's clear in reading the posts, I gave only in response to, and in proportion to, what was first given to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not talking about the difference between 4th and 8th. I'm talking about the difference between 4th and 14th. Look at the 2011 draft. Before the last three games of the season they were inline to pick 5th (I believe). Then, they went on a meaningless winning streak and ended up picking 13th. In-terms of actual player value, that sent them from Patrick Peterson to Nick Fairley. I'm not sure about you, but I would much rather give those three wins back if it meant Peterson were a Lion right now. And yes, maybe they gained some rah-rah confidence by winning those games and it carried over to the next season, but maybe it didn't.

Robert Quinn was drafted right after us, JJ Watt was drafted two picks before us. Just because we blew the Fairley pick doesn't mean that there wasn't talent where we picked at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean, I'm not one of the people rooting for losses, but lets be clear on something. I don't know what the value of having a higher pick is, but its not zero.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I mean, I'm not one of the people rooting for losses, but lets be clear on something. I don't know what the value of having a higher pick is, but its not zero.

For sure, but when you are a losing franchise like the Lions I don't think the value of gaining some wins and possibly help change the culture is zero either. Plus looking at the schedule I would say that we will be either favorites or at most 1 possession underdogs for every game left. Why not roll the dice and hope for the best the rest of the way? We only get to see 16 games a year, rooting for them to lose half way through the season is no fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would put a LT as priority #1 going into the offseason for the Lions. Starting caliber LTs cost an arm and a leg in free agency. The best way to address this would be the draft. Unfortunately unless you are drafting near the top, you are not going to get one. Getting a LT would fix two holes as I believe Reiff would be at least average at RT.

Winning significantly hurts the lions. With all the holes on the roster, money spent on a LT would be better used on defense. Also, winning increases the odds of Caldwell returning which sickens me. The value of winning 2 or 3 more games in attracting free agents is minimal at best. It's also worth pointing out that even thought the Lions won two games, their offense still sucks. Scoring 18 points a game is generally not enough to win any game, they are absurdly lucky to have won both games scoring that many points.

Edited by MAROTH4MVP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...