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2015 Off-season thread

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GIANTS GENERAL MANAGER BOBBY EVANS SAID MONDAY THAT IT WILL BE A "CLOSE CALL" AS TO WHETHER THE CLUB PICKS UP NORI AOKI'S $5.5 MILLION OPTION FOR 2016.

I liked him as an option last offseason, but that was before Cespedes was acquired.

I understand he isn't going to put up the production that the top FAs are going to. But I think he's an upgrade over what is in house for LF, he won't require much in terms of salary or years, and he can fill an everyday role. Might be an option to hit 2nd in between Kinsler and Cabrera.

Cool. I'm on board as an inexpensive option in LF.

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The master has spoken and told us that he is "not a good player." Which makes me wonder how bad everyone else on Erie must be, since he was seemingly better than all of them. We're screwed.

Jacoby Jones was better than him and coincidentally is also the only prospect in Erie

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Jacoby Jones was better than him and coincidentally is also the only prospect in Erie

I mean, I agree that Jones is a better prospect, but he was not better than Bernard offensively except in terms of HRs (and RBIs, but of course those are meaningless...). His OBP for the season was 30 points lower than Bernard's. He had fewer hits, hit for a much lower average, scored fewer runs, hit fewer doubles, triples and had fewer steals and a lower OPS. And Jones even spent time in Single A accruing those numbers, while Bernard played the whole season at AA.

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I've seen scouting reports that say Bernard is an average glove, slightly above average speed and below average bat. He's a fringey 4th OF. The point remains...he's cheap, on the 40 man and he fills a need to balance Gose. If you aren't going to give him a look, cut him loose. If you're going to keep him on the 40 man, take a look at him because he fills a need. Moya and Collins are LF's We need to sign a far better LF than either of them. Gose is our CF...but his splits strongly suggest he should sit against lefties. Keep the cheap Bernard and spend the money it would cost to resign Rajai to platoon with Gose on a better LF than Collins or Moya. They aren't ML regulars. A guy like Heyward is. Go for broke on him...

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Potentially dumb question, but, if we are serious about being contenders in 2016 (pedal to the metal) why aren't we discussing David Price as a FA signing?

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Because he's going to get $200M+ and there seems to be no indication that we are willing to spend $200M+ on a pitcher.

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I've seen scouting reports that say Bernard is an average glove, slightly above average speed and below average bat. He's a fringey 4th OF. The point remains...he's cheap, on the 40 man and he fills a need to balance Gose. If you aren't going to give him a look, cut him loose.

If his glove is average, then everything I've been taught as a scout over the years is null and void.

To the second part of the clipped quote above, I would wager he will be cut loose in the next 6-8 weeks.

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Don't know what you've been taught...so I can't really comment. Re Bernard's future...they've had numerous chances to rid themselves of him and they haven't done so. Like any fringe player...if a better option comes along I suspect they will cut him. I'd still rather see him get some AB's over Moya.

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I wouldn't be opposed to Aoki as a 4th of / depth type signing.

The odd thing about him is he has a reverse split, so him batting LH doesn't seem address the Tigers' not hitting RHP issue particularly well.

Career vs RHP:

.272/.344/.380

2015 vs. RHP

.270/.335/.383

Career vs. LHP

.321/.376/.400

2015 vs. LHP

.333/.400/.374

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I mean, I agree that Jones is a better prospect, but he was not better than Bernard offensively except in terms of HRs (and RBIs, but of course those are meaningless...). His OBP for the season was 30 points lower than Bernard's. He had fewer hits, hit for a much lower average, scored fewer runs, hit fewer doubles, triples and had fewer steals and a lower OPS. And Jones even spent time in Single A accruing those numbers, while Bernard played the whole season at AA.

Jones is also two years younger than Bernard.

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Jones is indeed a better and more versatile prospect. Bernard was more valuable last year to Erie...the two are by no means mutually exclusive.;

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The odd thing about him is he has a reverse split, so him batting LH doesn't seem address the Tigers' not hitting RHP issue particularly well.

I didn't think that there was as much of any issue with splits for the Tigers as a whole, but:

vs RHP: .267 / .322 / .410

vs LHP: .281 / .348 / .458

But digging deeper into the splits:

vs RHP as RHB: .279 / .327 / .433 in 3,362 PAs.

vs RHP as LHB: .240 / .309 / .355 in 1,445 PAs.

My hunch is that VMartinez (.616 OPS in 387 PAs) and Avila (.666 in 183 PAs) really skew the vs RHP split into an oddity for LHBs. That's over 1/3 of the LHB PAs vs RHPs with Gose as the only other regular LHB vs RHPs.

vs LHP as RHB: .292 / .357 / .480 in 1,209 PAs.

vs LHP as LHB: .188 / .268 / .541 in 143 PAs.

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Potentially dumb question, but, if we are serious about being contenders in 2016 (pedal to the metal) why aren't we discussing David Price as a FA signing?

Was thinking about the FA SP market and the more I looked, the less likely I think it is that we end up with Price or Greinke or Cueto. Even Zimmerman will be a long shot, he probably gets something similar to what we had offered Max 6/144.

Basically, ever big budget/big market team is in the market for an ace this offseason.

I'd be shocked if the Dodgers lose Greinke, but if they do, I'd they will certainly replace him with one of the other 3. Maybe Price, who Friedman has a long history with.

The DD led Red Sox are in the hunt for an ace.

The Yankees are likely to be.

The Cubs have made no secret about their lust for Price and have long talked about adding another ace type in the offseason.

The Angels need a front of the rotation guy and that is their top target, according to their new GM.

The Jays will try to keep Price or replace him. And the Giants are trying to keep Leake or replace him. Not same tier, I know.

Are we really going to blow these other teams out of the water to get one of these guys, when we also need another starting pitcher, a left fielder and a BP? It seems highly unlikely to me. More so than I originally thought.

I think one of the Kazmir-Samardizja-Kennedy trio is about the best we can hope to procure in FA.

If Ilitch really does want to get in a big star, he might have a better chance at one of the big 4 OFers Cespedes-Heyward-Upton-Gordon.

Looking at those big budget teams mentioned above... Dodgers-Yankees-Red Sox-Cubs-Giants-Jays all look good in the OF. So do other big budget teams like the Nats and Texas. The Angels need a LFer too, but again, the competition there is much less fierce.

In the end, it all depends on how much Avila can spend. Lots of problems to fix.

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I wouldn't be opposed to Aoki as a 4th of / depth type signing.

The odd thing about him is he has a reverse split, so him batting LH doesn't seem address the Tigers' not hitting RHP issue particularly well.

Career vs RHP:

.272/.344/.380

2015 vs. RHP

.270/.335/.383

Career vs. LHP

.321/.376/.400

2015 vs. LHP

.333/.400/.374

It's mildly interesting that he has had success against lefties, but I'm not sure how much stock to put into those numbers. He only has 650 plate appearances against lefties in his career. That's decent, but also the equivalent of a full season. And his better numbers against lefties are almost entirely due to his batting average. Batting average is not a stable number even with a full season worth of at bats.

Looking at his babip, it is something like 345 against lefties and 280 against righties. If I had to guess, I would think that both of those rates are due for substantial regression.

On the bright side for him, it is at least evidence that he wouldn't have to be platooned, which would be good for the Tigers because we have a center fielder that likely needs to be platooned and we have zero internal options for the role at the moment.

I think aoki's reverse splits are an anomaly. It wouldn't surprise me to see his numbers going forward being better against righties.

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Each of the last three years it has manifested.

I would say it is likely he isn't a worse hitter versus LHP at a minimum.

But there is still 2012 where he batted 30 points better against righties.

But that's how you end up with anomalies. Even if there is a 25% chance that you end up with an anomalous season, that's still a 1/16 chance that a player ends up with three straight years of an unlikely outcome.

It's like those gambling scams (so perfectly illustrated on the great show Ed) where you mail different football picks to 100 people for three straight weeks and a few of the people end up having received the correct picks in those weeks and think the predictions are legit.

There are always going to be a few players that string together multiple years of luck that don't match up with the established conventions of what was supposed to happen.

It's the same thing that we dealt with with Boesch and his reverse splits. His first two years he numbers against lefties were great relative to righties. Then in year 3 they weren't so good. Of course, he's played sparingly since then so we don't really know.

Has there been any left handed hitter that was able to hit better against lefties over the course of 1000 PAs? I imagine the number of players with that large of a sample is pretty limited. But we know as a whole that lefty hitters struggle against lefty pitchers.

I tend to side with the cumulative data about lefty hitters rather than anything a particular player has done.

That said, I think it can be said with confidence that he doesn't struggle against lefties as much as a typical lefty does, and that's pretty good.

We can revisit this discussion in three years after we see how he has done going forward.

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We can revisit this discussion in three years after we see how he has done going forward.

I will be waiting for it.

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It's probably been said already in the first 5 pages, but if someone could summarize which young pitchers we are expecting to make the starting roster that'd be helpful.

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It's probably been said already in the first 5 pages, but if someone could summarize which young pitchers we are expecting to make the starting roster that'd be helpful.

I'll list them for you, in alphabetical order:

Norris, Daniel.

That is all.

Beyond that I'm sure a couple will, but it's hard to say which ones.

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It's probably been said already in the first 5 pages, but if someone could summarize which young pitchers we are expecting to make the starting roster that'd be helpful.

Randy Wolf.

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Here are two things that I sincerely believe after reading this thread:

(a) Bernard is terrible

(b) Bernard is one of the best position prospects in the organization

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I've seen scouting reports that say Bernard is an average glove, slightly above average speed and below average bat. He's a fringey 4th OF. The point remains...he's cheap, on the 40 man and he fills a need to balance Gose. If you aren't going to give him a look, cut him loose. If you're going to keep him on the 40 man, take a look at him because he fills a need. Moya and Collins are LF's We need to sign a far better LF than either of them. Gose is our CF...but his splits strongly suggest he should sit against lefties. Keep the cheap Bernard and spend the money it would cost to resign Rajai to platoon with Gose on a better LF than Collins or Moya. They aren't ML regulars. A guy like Heyward is. Go for broke on him...

A fringey 4th OF? A Tiger specialty.

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But there is still 2012 where he batted 30 points better against righties.

But that's how you end up with anomalies. Even if there is a 25% chance that you end up with an anomalous season, that's still a 1/16 chance that a player ends up with three straight years of an unlikely outcome.

It's like those gambling scams (so perfectly illustrated on the great show Ed) where you mail different football picks to 100 people for three straight weeks and a few of the people end up having received the correct picks in those weeks and think the predictions are legit.

There are always going to be a few players that string together multiple years of luck that don't match up with the established conventions of what was supposed to happen.

It's the same thing that we dealt with with Boesch and his reverse splits. His first two years he numbers against lefties were great relative to righties. Then in year 3 they weren't so good. Of course, he's played sparingly since then so we don't really know.

Has there been any left handed hitter that was able to hit better against lefties over the course of 1000 PAs? I imagine the number of players with that large of a sample is pretty limited. But we know as a whole that lefty hitters struggle against lefty pitchers.

I tend to side with the cumulative data about lefty hitters rather than anything a particular player has done.

That said, I think it can be said with confidence that he doesn't struggle against lefties as much as a typical lefty does, and that's pretty good.

We can revisit this discussion in three years after we see how he has done going forward.

Actually, it would be a 1/64 chance (1/4)^3, not a 1/16 chance.

I stand by my statement that it seems likely (> 50% chance) he is equally effective against lefties as righties (as a true level of talent) at a minimum.

Certainly is possible his true level is to be worse and there are just enough guys in the majors that he is the one that looks like he has a reverse platoon ability when it is just random variation.

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Actually, it would be a 1/64 chance (1/4)^3, not a 1/16 chance.

I stand by my statement that it seems likely (> 50% chance) he is equally effective against lefties as righties (as a true level of talent) at a minimum.

Certainly is possible his true level is to be worse and there are just enough guys in the majors that he is the one that looks like he has a reverse platoon ability when it is just random variation.

Yeah my bad I had 50% in mind for some reason.

Anyway, we'll see in a few years.

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