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Yoda

2015 Off-season thread

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If Kimbrel becomes available, that could be a better fit, because he's signed for 3 more years, and we might match up better trade-wise with SD.

It's not too difficult to envision something along the lines of Iglesias, and/or Boyd and/or prospects going to SD for Kimbrel, either Shields, Cashner or Ross, $$$, and a RP. Mix and match and adjust $$$ from there. BJ Upton would even be a fit depending on the $$$. They might even like AlAl--they're good at reclaiming those types.

But that all depends on what Preller(?) is thinking, which seems really hard to tell month to month.

I could definitely see a Shields + Benoit type deal forming. As for Kimbrel, I don't really view a closer signed to a long term deal as that much of an asset.

They overpaid so much to get Kimbrel, hard to see them dumping him so quickly without a big package.

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The numbers lie on Bernard. Watch him play. He's not a big leaguer and someone else in this thread was correct; he has zero power.

Oh, and he has bad pitch recognition, is poor defensively, terrible arm, doesn't have instincts to use his speed, shows inconsistent effort; he's not good.

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I could definitely see a Shields + Benoit type deal forming. As for Kimbrel, I don't really view a closer signed to a long term deal as that much of an asset.

They overpaid so much to get Kimbrel, hard to see them dumping him so quickly without a big package.

Benoit's option amounts to $6.5M ($8M vs. $1.5M buyout), which I guess isn't horrible even tho he's 38.

Kimbrel is simply an excellent pitcher. But at ~$12M per year maybe I'm overestimating his value. I'd still love to get him, but on 2nd thought if we give up Iggy we'd need to get Ross back in the deal for sure.

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It depends n whether the luxury tax is a ceiling. If so, they have about 40 million to spend in free agency or in taking on salary in trades.

Personally, I don't think the luxury tax is a ceiling. I don't think that means unlimited budget. But I think ilitch will happily go above the tax limit for the right signings.

It's certainly relatively new ground. New GM and it's been 5 years since we went into an off-season without making the playoffs. And if the rumors are true that DD couldn't buy because all the prospects were going, maybe Mr. I will soften his stance on the lack of value of these guys.

Avila has a bit of a benefit in that he's not DD so this isn't necessarily his team, so he can say that we need X amount of payroll to get back to 2011-2014 levels AND keep the farm system somewhat healthy if we end up needing to buy at the deadline again down the road. Obviously if he can works some trades with prospects that they don't value as high, that can reduce payroll, but beyond that, whatever they save now they will pay for down the road.

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Nick in LF would not be good. Its 3B or DH or trade.

It boggles my mind how people watch him and think outfielder. They'd be better off moving Cabrera to LF. At least his arm would come into play. Not that I want that to actually happen.

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.....Avila would work at around $2.5M. If not we probably stick with Holaday as the backup, as there's not much else out there in FA......

Can't the Tigers bring Avila back as a non roster invite to spring training to see if he can actually hit a baseball?

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Bernard has zero power? He slugged at 440 and 408 (really inconsistent last year) the past two years. He's not Miggy...but he's not Romine either. Everything I've read suggests he's likely a 4th OF. Playing the RH half of a CF platoon with Gose makes him a 4th OF most nights. Plus...he's cheap as hell. we need all the $$$ we can get to fix the bullpen and find a decent full time LF (Moya and Collins?...please)

I could see Greene working out of the pen..at least in April and May. He's coming off a nerve injury...nerves are tricky. I have a nerve injury...so I know. :)

Slugging at .404 in AA is zero power. yes. Forget about being called up to MLB, if the Tigers saw much in him I suspect he'd at least have tasted AAA.

I agree that saving money for other more important positions is a good idea, but in that case I expect they'd try to bring back Davis cheap or just go with Collins.

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Can't the Tigers bring Avila back as a non roster invite to spring training to see if he can actually hit a baseball?

He's good defensively, and most catchers can't hit. League average OPS for a catcher in 2015 was .678. Avila was .626. Against RHP he was .666.

FWIW, Holaday career OPS is .622, but he has a reverse split and is .663 vs. RHP.

I think it's worth hoping Alex has a semi-bounce back year, if the price is right. The other catchers out there are not good, and Holaday hasn't really ever hit, even in the minors.

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Can't the Tigers bring Avila back as a non roster invite to spring training to see if he can actually hit a baseball?

Someone else will give him more than a mere non-roster invite. Someone will give him a starting job next year on a 1-year deal.

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Bernard is 25, has never played above AA, and has displayed 0 power at any level of baseball. Unless he's secretly a gold glove level center fielder I don't see him as anything more than minor league depth.

I'm not trying to keep hammering the guy, but relying on people like this is the sort of blunder bad organizations make. It would be like if they went into next year thinking Moya could be every day left fielder. And if that happens I might just drive to Detroit and swing a baseball bat at Al Avila's head. Don't worry, I won't actually hurt him, I'll be doing a Moya simulation where I miss 10 times in a row.

THIS!!!!

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Someone else will give him more than a mere non-roster invite. Someone will give him a starting job next year on a 1-year deal.

and even though most Tiger fans weren't paying attention, Alex finished the season on the upswing. He will most certainly get other offers if he doesn't get on from us.

WRT whether the luxury tax is the payroll limit, I would say it depends - there is hitting the tax and then there is hitting the tax. If the Tigs can structure some combination of contracts that put them over for a season or two or most, I could see it, but nothing that sets them up to be there long term, like until a Cabrera or Verlander contract runs out.

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OK Thanks. I will keep my shopping list around 50 million..have to do something baseball wise for four months.

It depends n whether the luxury tax is a ceiling. If so, they have about 40 million to spend in free agency or in taking on salary in trades.

Personally, I don't think the luxury tax is a ceiling. I don't think that means unlimited budget. But I think ilitch will happily go above the tax limit for the right signings.

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I think Ilitch will go over the threshold for a big name signing. He seems to get antsy in January and is liable to sign someone like Greinke if he is still available. I don't think he'll go over it to sign a bunch of pretty good free agents though.

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The Zimmerman peripherals + velocity decline + moving from NL to AL make me think his expected ERA would be 3.75 or so with Detroit, which isn't bad but not great. Couple that with 5 full season loads after TJ and his expected salary and he'd be one of the last guys I'd sign.

But to each their own.

Yeah, you're right. I forget we had 5 guys with a 3.75 ERA or better on this year's roster....Where would we ever find a spot for a guy like this?

I like Zimmerman because I view him as a step below the top guys but still very good AND I view him as someone being within our price range. Of course if we have an unlimited budget, I would rather sign Price, Greinke or Cueto. But I am assuming we are not going to be involved with those guys.

Another guy I would be very interested in is Chen. His numbers the past two years are very good in the AL. He's under the radar, though he is a Boras guy. But I think he would be worth a 4-year deal for $50/60M or so if we can get him for that amount.

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I think Ilitch will go over the threshold for a big name signing. He seems to get antsy in January and is liable to sign someone like Greinke if he is still available. I don't think he'll go over it to sign a bunch of pretty good free agents though.

And that's the problem, IMO. They'll spend 25MM on a guy like Fielder but won't spend 3MM on a reliever. Because said reliever isn't a star player.

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And that's the problem, IMO. They'll spend 25MM on a guy like Fielder but won't spend 3MM on a reliever. Because said reliever isn't a star player.

That's been the problem. I'm hoping things change a bit under Avila. I don't see the point in making that big GM change and then operating exactly the same way.

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The numbers lie? Dd somebody else hit those doubles and triples? I get the criticism that the kid has been old for each level and slow to develop...but i don't think running him out there in the spring as a cheap 4th OF is going to kill you...it's not like you finding a RH spare OF will be an impossible task in April or May

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The numbers lie? Dd somebody else hit those doubles and triples? I get the criticism that the kid has been old for each level and slow to develop...but i don't think running him out there in the spring as a cheap 4th OF is going to kill you...it's not like you finding a RH spare OF will be an impossible task in April or May

The master has spoken and told us that he is "not a good player." Which makes me wonder how bad everyone else on Erie must be, since he was seemingly better than all of them. We're screwed.

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Sounds like they are going to go gang busters in FA

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The master has spoken and told us that he is "not a good player." Which makes me wonder how bad everyone else on Erie must be, since he was seemingly better than all of them. We're screwed.

Somebody in the org likes him enough to keep him on the 40 man...if he's still around in the spring, run him out there. It's not like he's blocking Daniel Fields

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The master has spoken and told us that he is "not a good player." Which makes me wonder how bad everyone else on Erie must be, since he was seemingly better than all of them. We're screwed.

Numbers and potential are not always the same thing............

A bad player can have a good year, making the very most of his abilities. In that scenario, he's unlikely to ever get any better and make the jump from AA to MLB.

A player with a lot of talent can have a bad year, be playing a level ahead of where he should, have a lot of bad luck, etc.

You can't just sort the team by batting average to determine who has the best chance to be a major leaguer some day.

Edited by Yoda

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Numbers and potential are not always the same thing............

A bad player can have a good year, making the very most of his abilities. In that scenario, he's unlikely to ever get any better and make the jump from AA to MLB.

A player with a lot of talent can have a bad year, be playing a level ahead of where he should, have a lot of bad luck, etc.

You can't just sort the team by batting average to determine who has the best chance to be a major leaguer some day.

That being said, I think it's accurate to say that they are pretty much screwed as far having any good position players that are close to the majors.

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Numbers and potential are not always the same thing............

A bad player can have a good year, making the very most of his abilities. In that scenario, he's unlikely to ever get any better and make the jump from AA to MLB.

A player with a lot of talent can have a bad year, be playing a level ahead of where he should, have a lot of bad luck, etc.

You can't just sort the team by batting average to determine who has the best chance to be a major leaguer some day.

Well duh. But this is now the second year in a row, for two different teams at two different levels, that he has produced the best overall offensive results on his team. He led Erie in runs, hits, doubles, triples, total bases and steals. His OBP was .352.

Maybe he will never make it to the majors for any number of reasons, but I can't believe that he is "not good" at baseball. He's obviously been better than good in comparison to his peers, two years in a row. Maybe he is not good enough to play in the majors, but maybe he is. I'm not penciling him in for a roster spot, but he appears to be one of our top outfield producers in the minor leagues. I would be curious to get a look at him in the spring, at least.

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