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2015 Off-season thread

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I see that the Rockies and rays swapped McGee for Dickerson. I love McGee but I have no idea why a last place team like the Rockies would be trading for a dominant closer. It seems kinda pointless to me.

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I see that the Rockies and rays swapped McGee for Dickerson. I love McGee but I have no idea why a last place team like the Rockies would be trading for a dominant closer. It seems kinda pointless to me.

He becomes a very valuable asset mid-season.

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If there's any conflict or compromise between stats and scouting, they aren't being used correctly, in my opinion.

And that's entirely possible, as a bulk of the analytic work right now is probably getting the databases and infrastructure in place to properly synthesize information.

I heard an interview with Kevin Goldstein, Astros director of pro scouting, former BP prospect guy/Up and In Host a few weeks ago, and he was talking about this relationship. If the scouts have something they are curious about, they ask the stat guys for input. If the stat guys are curious about something, they ask the scouts. Scouting reports can be used as data in statistical analysis. Statistical data can be used to help scouts.

For example, in the public sphere, do you think numbers geeks would have ever thought to consider catching framing if there weren't coaches/scouts saying that it might have an effect on the game? Also, once the numbers people find out that a good catching framer can be (estimating) 5-10X more important than a good throwing catcher, the player development people can focus more on that in the minors, and the scouts can be on the lookout for better framers and focus less on pop times.

If it's a tug-of-war, that's a problem. I don't get the feeling it is.

Yes, I agree with this...stats v. scouting is a false choice, it should be about how the two disciplines can better compliment/improve each other.

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He becomes a very valuable asset mid-season.

An asset more valuable than 3 and a half years of a healthy Dickerson? Of course, Dickerson may not hold up, but I figure the chances are better outside of CO. With some quality OF FAs still out there, seems like a bad time to be dangling an OFer, esp a cheap one with 4 years of control.

Also, Fister signed a 1 year 7 mil deal with Houston. Incentives could take it to 12 mil. I'm skeptical but very curious to see if he can rebound.

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An asset more valuable than 3 and a half years of a healthy Dickerson? Of course, Dickerson may not hold up, but I figure the chances are better outside of CO. With some quality OF FAs still out there, seems like a bad time to be dangling an OFer, esp a cheap one with 4 years of control.

Also, Fister signed a 1 year 7 mil deal with Houston. Incentives could take it to 12 mil. I'm skeptical but very curious to see if he can rebound.

Yeah, you got to squint a little bit to see Fister being successful again, but you have to squint a little bit with most guys that sign for this little.

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He becomes a very valuable asset mid-season.

This would be a normal thought for any other team. Not many pitchers become valuable in Colorado.

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Yes, I agree with this...stats v. scouting is a false choice, it should be about how the two disciplines can better compliment/improve each other.

Analytics is the process of structuring the data that scouting provides so that it can be analyzed

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Doug Fister...1 year, 7 million to the Astros. I know that he struggled last year and his velocity was gosh awful but I think I would have preferred him and that deal over Pelfrey.

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Doug Fister...1 year, 7 million to the Astros. I know that he struggled last year and his velocity was gosh awful but I think I would have preferred him and that deal over Pelfrey.

I don't like Pelfrey but at least he still has decent stuff, and Avila said it was a scout signing so maybe they see something that can make him better.

Fister just seems done to me. If he never pitched for the Tigers before I don't think people would be clamoring for him now.

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Yes, I agree with this...stats v. scouting is a false choice, it should be about how the two disciplines can better compliment/improve each other.

I would say in short, that a statistic tells you something about what a process did, an observation of the process is an attempt to understand why it produces the outcomes it does. There is no intrinsic conflict at the data level as the question being answered is different.

But conflict can arise because the the money question to answer is what the process will produce in the future, and that is both a matter of what it has show it can do in the past as determined by accurate metrics, and whether it is likely to remain the same in the future as it was in the past. To understand the second part is why you want/need to understand the "why" as well as the what. The relative weighting can be the subject of argument, but a decision maker that short shrifts either side of the analysis will not make optimal decisions.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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I don't like Pelfrey but at least he still has decent stuff, and Avila said it was a scout signing so maybe they see something that can make him better.

Fister just seems done to me.

With the scouting as a caveat, I think I'd rather have Fister. Its only a one year deal. Despite Fister falling out of the rotation last season, he's been the better pitcher. Neither are strikeout pitchers, but Fister has been better at keeping runners off of base. His slumped 1.398 WHIP last season is better than what Pelfrey has been able to manage (1.360 in 2008 and 1.377 in 2010). In terms of WAR, Pelfrey was better last season, but that was the exception.

If he never pitched for the Tigers before I don't think people would be clamoring for him now.

I can understand that sentiment. I had that impression of Cespedes while we were still waiting to see if there was going to be an upgrade in LF. I think there was a bit of that with Maybin as well. As for Fister vs Pelfrey, I just think Fister has been the better pitcher.

Now, if Fister is done after last season, Pelfrey should have been done long ago. But I guess it remains to be seen what Fister has left and if the scout signing and whatever adjustment of Pelfrey yields what they think it will.

Edited by Casimir

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I would say in short, that a statistic tells you something about what a process did, an observation of the process is an attempt to understand why it produces the outcomes it does. There is no intrinsic conflict at the data level as the question being answered is different.

But conflict can arise because the the money question to answer is what the process will produce in the future, and that is both a matter of what it has show it can do in the past as determined by accurate metrics, and whether it is likely to remain the same in the future as it was in the past. To understand the second part is why you want/need to understand the "why" as well as the what. The relative weighting can be the subject of argument, but a decision maker that short shrifts either side of the analysis will not make optimal decisions.

De quoi parles-tu?

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I feel like this offseason was the Mad Men episode where they decided to set up their own firm. They had a plan and executed it to near perfection. Now we wait to see how the new firm operates. This offseason was in effect a "caper" like Ocean's Eleven, The Italian Job or in its own way Die Hard. Only in this one our stolen bullion isn't tippling on a bus about to go off a cliff.

Now we only hope our luxury tax isn't like the explosives in this scene.

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De quoi parles-tu?

the process = baseball player

statistic = analytics method

observation = scouting and other none quantitative data gathering.

comprenez vous?

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If there's any conflict or compromise between stats and scouting, they aren't being used correctly, in my opinion.

And that's entirely possible, as a bulk of the analytic work right now is probably getting the databases and infrastructure in place to properly synthesize information.

I heard an interview with Kevin Goldstein, Astros director of pro scouting, former BP prospect guy/Up and In Host a few weeks ago, and he was talking about this relationship. If the scouts have something they are curious about, they ask the stat guys for input. If the stat guys are curious about something, they ask the scouts. Scouting reports can be used as data in statistical analysis. Statistical data can be used to help scouts.

For example, in the public sphere, do you think numbers geeks would have ever thought to consider catching framing if there weren't coaches/scouts saying that it might have an effect on the game? Also, once the numbers people find out that a good catching framer can be (estimating) 5-10X more important than a good throwing catcher, the player development people can focus more on that in the minors, and the scouts can be on the lookout for better framers and focus less on pop times.

If it's a tug-of-war, that's a problem. I don't get the feeling it is.

I agree with the bold-faced, but I also would bet that it is a tug-of-war in some laggard organizations. Please, God, don't let the Tigers be one of those.

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We should track these and see how many times the same person says they are in the best shape of their life.

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the process = baseball player

statistic = analytics method

observation = scouting and other none quantitative data gathering.

comprenez vous?

Observation= data point

Process= analytical method

Statistic = result of process applied to observation to be used for analysis

Scouting is most always quantitive. Player has tremendous power, i give him a 10. Player has a 1.9 pop time. Someone has to "scout" a behavior to give analytics anything to analyze.

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We should track these and see how many times the same person says they are in the best shape of their life.

We're going to work on fundamentals this spring.

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Observation= data point

Process= analytical method

Statistic = result of process applied to observation to be used for analysis

Scouting is most always quantitive. Player has tremendous power, i give him a 10. Player has a 1.9 pop time. Someone has to "scout" a behavior to give analytics anything to analyze.

I know I was not being rigourous enough with the definition of statistic. ;)

What I think is key to keep in mind about statistic is that they are the rear view mirror. They are the quantification of of the sum of multiple past occurrences. The measurements you refer to that a scout takes are really just that- measurements, they are not statistics in the mathematical sense - they are the single value of variable measured once in time.

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